Uncertainty
Batch Belief Trees for Motion Planning Under Uncertainty
Zheng, Dongliang, Tsiotras, Panagiotis
In this work, we develop the Batch Belief Trees (BBT) algorithm for motion planning under motion and sensing uncertainties. The algorithm interleaves between batch sampling, building a graph of nominal trajectories in the state space, and searching over the graph to find belief space motion plans. By searching over the graph, BBT finds sophisticated plans that will visit (and revisit) information-rich regions to reduce uncertainty. One of the key benefits of this algorithm is the modified interplay between exploration and exploitation. Instead of an exhaustive search (exploitation) after one exploration step, the proposed algorithm uses batch samples to explore the state space and, in addition, does not require exhaustive search before the next iteration of batch sampling, which adds flexibility.The algorithm finds motion plans that converge to the optimal one as more samples are added to the graph. We test BBT in different planning environments. Our numerical investigation confirms that BBT finds non-trivial motion plans and is faster compared with previous similar methods.
A Meta-heuristic Approach to Estimate and Explain Classifier Uncertainty
Houston, Andrew, Cosma, Georgina
Trust is a crucial factor affecting the adoption of machine learning (ML) models. Qualitative studies have revealed that end-users, particularly in the medical domain, need models that can express their uncertainty in decision-making allowing users to know when to ignore the model's recommendations. However, existing approaches for quantifying decision-making uncertainty are not model-agnostic, or they rely on complex statistical derivations that are not easily understood by laypersons or end-users, making them less useful for explaining the model's decision-making process. This work proposes a set of class-independent meta-heuristics that can characterize the complexity of an instance in terms of factors are mutually relevant to both human and ML decision-making. The measures are integrated into a meta-learning framework that estimates the risk of misclassification. The proposed framework outperformed predicted probabilities in identifying instances at risk of being misclassified. The proposed measures and framework hold promise for improving model development for more complex instances, as well as providing a new means of model abstention and explanation.
Unsupervised representation learning with recognition-parametrised probabilistic models
Walker, William I., Soulat, Hugo, Yu, Changmin, Sahani, Maneesh
We introduce a new approach to probabilistic unsupervised learning based on the recognition-parametrised model (RPM): a normalised semi-parametric hypothesis class for joint distributions over observed and latent variables. Under the key assumption that observations are conditionally independent given latents, the RPM combines parametric prior and observation-conditioned latent distributions with non-parametric observation marginals. This approach leads to a flexible learnt recognition model capturing latent dependence between observations, without the need for an explicit, parametric generative model. The RPM admits exact maximum-likelihood learning for discrete latents, even for powerful neural-network-based recognition. We develop effective approximations applicable in the continuous-latent case. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the RPM on high-dimensional data, learning image classification from weak indirect supervision; direct image-level latent Dirichlet allocation; and recognition-parametrised Gaussian process factor analysis (RP-GPFA) applied to multi-factorial spatiotemporal datasets. The RPM provides a powerful framework to discover meaningful latent structure underlying observational data, a function critical to both animal and artificial intelligence.
Bayesian Free Energy of Deep ReLU Neural Network in Overparametrized Cases
Nagayasu, Shuya, Watanabe, Sumio
In many research fields in artificial intelligence, it has been shown that deep neural networks are useful to estimate unknown functions on high dimensional input spaces. However, their generalization performance is not yet completely clarified from the theoretical point of view because they are nonidentifiable and singular learning machines. Moreover, a ReLU function is not differentiable, to which algebraic or analytic methods in singular learning theory cannot be applied. In this paper, we study a deep ReLU neural network in overparametrized cases and prove that the Bayesian free energy, which is equal to the minus log marginal likelihoodor the Bayesian stochastic complexity, is bounded even if the number of layers are larger than necessary to estimate an unknown data-generating function. Since the Bayesian generalization error is equal to the increase of the free energy as a function of a sample size, our result also shows that the Bayesian generalization error does not increase even if a deep ReLU neural network is designed to be sufficiently large or in an opeverparametrized state.
Physics-informed Information Field Theory for Modeling Physical Systems with Uncertainty Quantification
Alberts, Alex, Bilionis, Ilias
Data-driven approaches coupled with physical knowledge are powerful techniques to model systems. The goal of such models is to efficiently solve for the underlying field by combining measurements with known physical laws. As many systems contain unknown elements, such as missing parameters, noisy data, or incomplete physical laws, this is widely approached as an uncertainty quantification problem. The common techniques to handle all the variables typically depend on the numerical scheme used to approximate the posterior, and it is desirable to have a method which is independent of any such discretization. Information field theory (IFT) provides the tools necessary to perform statistics over fields that are not necessarily Gaussian. We extend IFT to physics-informed IFT (PIFT) by encoding the functional priors with information about the physical laws which describe the field. The posteriors derived from this PIFT remain independent of any numerical scheme and can capture multiple modes, allowing for the solution of problems which are ill-posed. We demonstrate our approach through an analytical example involving the Klein-Gordon equation. We then develop a variant of stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics to draw samples from the joint posterior over the field and model parameters. We apply our method to numerical examples with various degrees of model-form error and to inverse problems involving nonlinear differential equations. As an addendum, the method is equipped with a metric which allows the posterior to automatically quantify model-form uncertainty. Because of this, our numerical experiments show that the method remains robust to even an incorrect representation of the physics given sufficient data. We numerically demonstrate that the method correctly identifies when the physics cannot be trusted, in which case it automatically treats learning the field as a regression problem.
FLEX: Feature-Logic Embedding Framework for CompleX Knowledge Graph Reasoning
Lin, Xueyuan, E, Haihong, Zhou, Gengxian, Hu, Tianyi, Ningyuan, Li, Sun, Mingzhi, Luo, Haoran
Current best performing models for knowledge graph reasoning (KGR) introduce geometry objects or probabilistic distributions to embed entities and first-order logical (FOL) queries into low-dimensional vector spaces. They can be summarized as a center-size framework (point/box/cone, Beta/Gaussian distribution, etc.). However, they have limited logical reasoning ability. And it is difficult to generalize to various features, because the center and size are one-to-one constrained, unable to have multiple centers or sizes. To address these challenges, we instead propose a novel KGR framework named Feature-Logic Embedding framework, FLEX, which is the first KGR framework that can not only TRULY handle all FOL operations including conjunction, disjunction, negation and so on, but also support various feature spaces. Specifically, the logic part of feature-logic framework is based on vector logic, which naturally models all FOL operations. Experiments demonstrate that FLEX significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods on benchmark datasets.
Persistently Trained, Diffusion-assisted Energy-based Models
Zhang, Xinwei, Tan, Zhiqiang, Ou, Zhijian
Maximum likelihood (ML) learning for energy-based models (EBMs) is challenging, partly due to non-convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo.Several variations of ML learning have been proposed, but existing methods all fail to achieve both post-training image generation and proper density estimation. We propose to introduce diffusion data and learn a joint EBM, called diffusion assisted-EBMs, through persistent training (i.e., using persistent contrastive divergence) with an enhanced sampling algorithm to properly sample from complex, multimodal distributions. We present results from a 2D illustrative experiment and image experiments and demonstrate that, for the first time for image data, persistently trained EBMs can {\it simultaneously} achieve long-run stability, post-training image generation, and superior out-of-distribution detection.
Model Based Reinforcement Learning for Personalized Heparin Dosing
A key challenge in sequential decision making is optimizing systems safely under partial information. While much of the literature has focused on the cases of either partially known states or partially known dynamics, it is further exacerbated in cases where both states and dynamics are partially known. Computing heparin doses for patients fits this paradigm since the concentration of heparin in the patient cannot be measured directly and the rates at which patients metabolize heparin vary greatly between individuals. While many proposed solutions are model free, they require complex models and have difficulty ensuring safety. However, if some of the structure of the dynamics is known, a model based approach can be leveraged to provide safe policies. In this paper we propose such a framework to address the challenge of optimizing personalized heparin doses. We use a predictive model parameterized individually by patient to predict future therapeutic effects. We then leverage this model using a scenario generation based approach that is capable of ensuring patient safety. We validate our models with numerical experiments by comparing the predictive capabilities of our model against existing machine learning techniques and demonstrating how our dosing algorithm can treat patients in a simulated ICU environment.
Deep Transfer Learning Applications in Intrusion Detection Systems: A Comprehensive Review
Kheddar, Hamza, Himeur, Yassine, Awad, Ali Ismail
Globally, the external Internet is increasingly being connected to the contemporary industrial control system. As a result, there is an immediate need to protect the network from several threats. The key infrastructure of industrial activity may be protected from harm by using an intrusion detection system (IDS), a preventive measure mechanism, to recognize new kinds of dangerous threats and hostile activities. The most recent artificial intelligence (AI) techniques used to create IDS in many kinds of industrial control networks are examined in this study, with a particular emphasis on IDS-based deep transfer learning (DTL). This latter can be seen as a type of information fusion that merge, and/or adapt knowledge from multiple domains to enhance the performance of the target task, particularly when the labeled data in the target domain is scarce. Publications issued after 2015 were taken into account. These selected publications were divided into three categories: DTL-only and IDS-only are involved in the introduction and background, and DTL-based IDS papers are involved in the core papers of this review. Researchers will be able to have a better grasp of the current state of DTL approaches used in IDS in many different types of networks by reading this review paper. Other useful information, such as the datasets used, the sort of DTL employed, the pre-trained network, IDS techniques, the evaluation metrics including accuracy/F-score and false alarm rate (FAR), and the improvement gained, were also covered. The algorithms, and methods used in several studies, or illustrate deeply and clearly the principle in any DTL-based IDS subcategory are presented to the reader.
Learning policies for resource allocation in business processes
Middelhuis, J., Bianco, R. Lo, Scherzer, E., Bukhsh, Z. A., Adan, I. J. B. F., Dijkman, R. M.
Resource allocation is the assignment of resources to activities that must be executed in a business process at a particular moment at run-time. While resource allocation is well-studied in other fields, such as manufacturing, there exist only a few methods in business process management. Existing methods are not suited for application in large business processes or focus on optimizing resource allocation for a single case rather than for all cases combined. To fill this gap, this paper proposes two learning-based methods for resource allocation in business processes: a deep reinforcement learning-based approach and a score-based value function approximation approach. The two methods are compared against existing heuristics in a set of scenarios that represent typical business process structures and on a complete network that represents a realistic business process. The results show that our learning-based methods outperform or are competitive with common heuristics in most scenarios and outperform heuristics in the complete network.