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 Uncertainty


Machine Learning and Kalman Filtering for Nanomechanical Mass Spectrometry

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Nanomechanical resonant sensors are used in mass spectrometry via detection of resonance frequency jumps. There is a fundamental trade-off between detection speed and accuracy. Temporal and size resolution are limited by the resonator characteristics and noise. A Kalman filtering technique, augmented with maximum-likelihood estimation, was recently proposed as a Pareto optimal solution. We present enhancements and robust realizations for this technique, including a confidence boosted thresholding approach as well as machine learning for event detection. We describe learning techniques that are based on neural networks and boosted decision trees for temporal location and event size estimation. In the pure learning based approach that discards the Kalman filter, the raw data from the sensor are used in training a model for both location and size prediction. In the alternative approach that augments a Kalman filter, the event likelihood history is used in a binary classifier for event occurrence. Locations and sizes are predicted using maximum-likelihood, followed by a Kalman filter that continually improves the size estimate. We present detailed comparisons of the learning based schemes and the confidence boosted thresholding approach, and demonstrate robust performance for a practical realization.


On Masked Pre-training and the Marginal Likelihood

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Masked pre-training removes random input dimensions and learns a model that can predict the missing values. Empirical results indicate that this intuitive form of self-supervised learning yields models that generalize very well to new domains. A theoretical understanding is, however, lacking. This paper shows that masked pre-training with a suitable cumulative scoring function corresponds to maximizing the model's marginal likelihood, which is de facto the Bayesian model selection measure of generalization. Beyond shedding light on the success of masked pre-training, this insight also suggests that Bayesian models can be trained with appropriately designed self-supervision. Empirically, we confirm the developed theory and explore the main learning principles of masked pre-training in large language models.


Graph Switching Dynamical Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Dynamical systems with complex behaviours, e.g. immune system cells interacting with a pathogen, are commonly modelled by splitting the behaviour into different regimes, or modes, each with simpler dynamics, and then learning the switching behaviour from one mode to another. Switching Dynamical Systems (SDS) are a powerful tool that automatically discovers these modes and mode-switching behaviour from time series data. While effective, these methods focus on independent objects, where the modes of one object are independent of the modes of the other objects. In this paper, we focus on the more general interacting object setting for switching dynamical systems, where the per-object dynamics also depends on an unknown and dynamically changing subset of other objects and their modes. To this end, we propose a novel graph-based approach for switching dynamical systems, GRAph Switching dynamical Systems (GRASS), in which we use a dynamic graph to characterize interactions between objects and learn both intra-object and inter-object mode-switching behaviour. We introduce two new datasets for this setting, a synthesized ODE-driven particles dataset and a real-world Salsa Couple Dancing dataset. Experiments show that GRASS can consistently outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods.


Refined Regret for Adversarial MDPs with Linear Function Approximation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider learning in an adversarial Markov Decision Process (MDP) where the loss functions can change arbitrarily over $K$ episodes and the state space can be arbitrarily large. We assume that the Q-function of any policy is linear in some known features, that is, a linear function approximation exists. The best existing regret upper bound for this setting (Luo et al., 2021) is of order $\tilde{\mathcal O}(K^{2/3})$ (omitting all other dependencies), given access to a simulator. This paper provides two algorithms that improve the regret to $\tilde{\mathcal O}(\sqrt K)$ in the same setting. Our first algorithm makes use of a refined analysis of the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithm with the log-barrier regularizer. This analysis allows the loss estimators to be arbitrarily negative and might be of independent interest. Our second algorithm develops a magnitude-reduced loss estimator, further removing the polynomial dependency on the number of actions in the first algorithm and leading to the optimal regret bound (up to logarithmic terms and dependency on the horizon). Moreover, we also extend the first algorithm to simulator-free linear MDPs, which achieves $\tilde{\mathcal O}(K^{8/9})$ regret and greatly improves over the best existing bound $\tilde{\mathcal O}(K^{14/15})$. This algorithm relies on a better alternative to the Matrix Geometric Resampling procedure by Neu & Olkhovskaya (2020), which could again be of independent interest.


On the Identifiability of Nonlinear ICA: Sparsity and Beyond

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Nonlinear independent component analysis (ICA) aims to recover the underlying independent latent sources from their observable nonlinear mixtures. How to make the nonlinear ICA model identifiable up to certain trivial indeterminacies is a long-standing problem in unsupervised learning. Recent breakthroughs reformulate the standard independence assumption of sources as conditional independence given some auxiliary variables (e.g., class labels and/or domain/time indexes) as weak supervision or inductive bias. However, nonlinear ICA with unconditional priors cannot benefit from such developments. We explore an alternative path and consider only assumptions on the mixing process, such as Structural Sparsity. We show that under specific instantiations of such constraints, the independent latent sources can be identified from their nonlinear mixtures up to a permutation and a component-wise transformation, thus achieving nontrivial identifiability of nonlinear ICA without auxiliary variables. We provide estimation methods and validate the theoretical results experimentally. The results on image data suggest that our conditions may hold in a number of practical data generating processes.


Hierarchical Policy Blending as Inference for Reactive Robot Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Motion generation in cluttered, dense, and dynamic environments is a central topic in robotics, rendered as a multi-objective decision-making problem. Current approaches trade-off between safety and performance. On the one hand, reactive policies guarantee fast response to environmental changes at the risk of suboptimal behavior. On the other hand, planning-based motion generation provides feasible trajectories, but the high computational cost may limit the control frequency and thus safety. To combine the benefits of reactive policies and planning, we propose a hierarchical motion generation method. Moreover, we adopt probabilistic inference methods to formalize the hierarchical model and stochastic optimization. We realize this approach as a weighted product of stochastic, reactive expert policies, where planning is used to adaptively compute the optimal weights over the task horizon. This stochastic optimization avoids local optima and proposes feasible reactive plans that find paths in cluttered and dense environments. Our extensive experimental study in planar navigation and 6DoF manipulation shows that our proposed hierarchical motion generation method outperforms both myopic reactive controllers and online re-planning methods.


Learning to solve Bayesian inverse problems: An amortized variational inference approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies epistemic uncertainty. Since analytical posteriors are not typically available, one resorts to Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling or approximate variational inference. However, inference needs to be rerun from scratch for each new set of data. This drawback limits the applicability of the Bayesian formulation to real-time settings, e.g., health monitoring of engineered systems, and medical diagnosis. The objective of this paper is to develop a methodology that enables real-time inference by learning the Bayesian inverse map, i.e., the map from data to posteriors. Our approach is as follows. We represent the posterior distribution using a parameterization based on deep neural networks. Next, we learn the network parameters by amortized variational inference method which involves maximizing the expectation of evidence lower bound over all possible datasets compatible with the model. We demonstrate our approach by solving examples a set of benchmark problems from science and engineering. Our results show that the posterior estimates of our approach are in agreement with the corresponding ground truth obtained by Markov chain Monte Carlo. Once trained, our approach provides the posterior parameters of observation just at the cost of a forward pass of the neural network.


Diffusion Models as Artists: Are we Closing the Gap between Humans and Machines?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

An important milestone for AI is the development of algorithms that can produce drawings that are indistinguishable from those of humans. Here, we adapt the 'diversity vs. recognizability' scoring framework from Boutin et al, 2022 and find that one-shot diffusion models have indeed started to close the gap between humans and machines. However, using a finer-grained measure of the originality of individual samples, we show that strengthening the guidance of diffusion models helps improve the humanness of their drawings, but they still fall short of approximating the originality and recognizability of human drawings. Comparing human category diagnostic features, collected through an online psychophysics experiment, against those derived from diffusion models reveals that humans rely on fewer and more localized features. Overall, our study suggests that diffusion models have significantly helped improve the quality of machine-generated drawings; however, a gap between humans and machines remains -- in part explainable by discrepancies in visual strategies.


Semiring Reasoning Frameworks in AI and Their Computational Complexity

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Many important problems in AI, among them #SAT, parameter learning and probabilistic inference go beyond the classical satisfiability problem. Here, instead of finding a solution we are interested in a quantity associated with the set of solutions, such as the number of solutions, the optimal solution or the probability that a query holds in a solution. To model such quantitative problems in a uniform manner, a number of frameworks, e.g. Algebraic Model Counting and Semiring-based Constraint Satisfaction Problems, employ what we call the semiring paradigm. In the latter the abstract algebraic structure of the semiring serves as a means of parameterizing the problem definition, thus allowing for different modes of quantitative computations by choosing different semirings. While efficiently solvable cases have been widely studied, a systematic study of the computational complexity of such problems depending on the semiring parameter is missing. In this work, we characterize the latter by NP(R), a novel generalization of NP over semiring R, and obtain NP(R)-completeness results for a selection of semiring frameworks. To obtain more tangible insights into the hardness of NP(R), we link it to well-known complexity classes from the literature. Interestingly, we manage to connect the computational hardness to properties of the semiring. Using this insight, we see that, on the one hand, NP(R) is always at least as hard as NP or ModpP depending on the semiring R and in general unlikely to be in FPSPACEpoly. On the other hand, for broad subclasses of semirings relevant in practice we can employ reductions to NP, ModpP and #P. These results show that in many cases solutions are only mildly harder to compute than functions in NP, ModpP and #P, give us new insights into how problems that involve counting on semirings can be approached, and provide a means of assessing whether an algorithm is appropriate for a given class of problems.


Detection of Late Blight Disease in Tomato Leaf Using Image Processing Techniques

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

=One of the most frequently farmed crops is the tomato crop. Late blight is the most prevalent tomato disease in the world, and often causes a significant reduction in the production of tomato crops. The importance of tomatoes as an agricultural product necessitates early detection of late blight. It is produced by the fungus Phytophthora. The earliest signs of late blight on tomatoes are unevenly formed, water-soaked lesions on the leaves located on the plant canopy's younger leave White cottony growth may appear in humid environments evident on the undersides of the leaves that have been impacted. Lesions increase as the disease proceeds, turning the leaves brown to shrivel up and die. Using picture segmentation and the Multi-class SVM technique, late blight disorder is discovered in this work. Image segmentation is employed for separating damaged areas on leaves, and the Multi-class SVM method is used for reliable disease categorization. 30 reputable studies were chosen from a total of 2770 recognized papers. The primary goal of this study is to compile cutting-edge research that identifies current research trends, problems, and prospects for late blight detection. It also looks at current approaches for applying image processing to diagnose and detect late blight. A suggested taxonomy for late blight detection has also been provided. In the same way, a model for the development of the solutions to problems is also presented. Finally, the research gaps have been presented in terms of open issues for the provision of future directions in image processing for the researchers.