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 Uncertainty


Bayesian Inverse Contextual Reasoning for Heterogeneous Semantics-Native Communication

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work deals with the heterogeneous semantic-native communication (SNC) problem. When agents do not share the same communication context, the effectiveness of contextual reasoning (CR) is compromised calling for agents to infer other agents' context. This article proposes a novel framework for solving the inverse problem of CR in SNC using two Bayesian inference methods, namely: Bayesian inverse CR (iCR) and Bayesian inverse linearized CR (iLCR). The first proposed Bayesian iCR method utilizes Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to infer the agent's context while being computationally expensive. To address this issue, a Bayesian iLCR method is leveraged which obtains a linearized CR (LCR) model by training a linear neural network. Experimental results show that the Bayesian iLCR method requires less computation and achieves higher inference accuracy compared to Bayesian iCR. Additionally, heterogeneous SNC based on the context obtained through the Bayesian iLCR method shows better communication effectiveness than that of Bayesian iCR. Overall, this work provides valuable insights and methods to improve the effectiveness of SNC in situations where agents have different contexts.


MARS: Meta-Learning as Score Matching in the Function Space

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Meta-learning aims to extract useful inductive biases from a set of related datasets. In Bayesian meta-learning, this is typically achieved by constructing a prior distribution over neural network parameters. However, specifying families of computationally viable prior distributions over the high-dimensional neural network parameters is difficult. As a result, existing approaches resort to meta-learning restrictive diagonal Gaussian priors, severely limiting their expressiveness and performance. To circumvent these issues, we approach meta-learning through the lens of functional Bayesian neural network inference, which views the prior as a stochastic process and performs inference in the function space. Specifically, we view the meta-training tasks as samples from the data-generating process and formalize meta-learning as empirically estimating the law of this stochastic process. Our approach can seamlessly acquire and represent complex prior knowledge by meta-learning the score function of the data-generating process marginals instead of parameter space priors. In a comprehensive benchmark, we demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of predictive accuracy and substantial improvements in the quality of uncertainty estimates.


Response Time Improves Choice Prediction and Function Estimation for Gaussian Process Models of Perception and Preferences

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Models for human choice prediction in preference learning and psychophysics often consider only binary response data, requiring many samples to accurately learn preferences or perceptual detection thresholds. The response time (RT) to make each choice captures additional information about the decision process, however existing models incorporating RTs for choice prediction do so in fully parametric settings or over discrete stimulus sets. This is in part because the de-facto standard model for choice RTs, the diffusion decision model (DDM), does not admit tractable, differentiable inference. The DDM thus cannot be easily integrated with flexible models for continuous, multivariate function approximation, particularly Gaussian process (GP) models. We propose a novel differentiable approximation to the DDM likelihood using a family of known, skewed three-parameter distributions. We then use this new likelihood to incorporate RTs into GP models for binary choices. Our RT-choice GPs enable both better latent value estimation and held-out choice prediction relative to baselines, which we demonstrate on three real-world multivariate datasets covering both human psychophysics and preference learning applications.


Bayesian Calibration of MEMS Accelerometers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study aims to investigate the utilization of Bayesian techniques for the calibration of micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) accelerometers. These devices have garnered substantial interest in various practical applications and typically require calibration through error-correcting functions. The parameters of these error-correcting functions are determined during a calibration process. However, due to various sources of noise, these parameters cannot be determined with precision, making it desirable to incorporate uncertainty in the calibration models. Bayesian modeling offers a natural and complete way of reflecting uncertainty by treating the model parameters as variables rather than fixed values. Additionally, Bayesian modeling enables the incorporation of prior knowledge, making it an ideal choice for calibration. Nevertheless, it is infrequently used in sensor calibration. This study introduces Bayesian methods for the calibration of MEMS accelerometer data in a straightforward manner using recent advances in probabilistic programming.


Extraction and Recovery of Spatio-Temporal Structure in Latent Dynamics Alignment with Diffusion Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the field of behavior-related brain computation, it is necessary to meaningfully align raw neural population activities against the drastic shift between them. However, the alignment is non-trivial since most neural population activities are in a multivariate time-series manner. An instrumental framework within neuroscience research posits that trial-based neural population activities rely on low-dimensional latent dynamics. Focusing on such latent dynamics greatly facilitates the alignment procedure. Despite the considerable progress we have reached, existing methods usually ignore the intrinsic spatio-temporal structures within latent dynamics. Thus, those solutions lead to poor quality in dynamics structures and overall performance after alignment. To tackle this problem, we propose a method leveraging the expressiveness of diffusion model to relieve such issues. Specifically, the latent dynamics structures of the source domain are first extracted by the diffusion model. Then, such structures are well-recovered through a maximum likelihood alignment procedure on the target domain. We first demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method on a synthetic dataset. Then, when applied to neural recordings from primate motor cortex, under both cross-day and inter-subject settings, our method consistently manifests its capability of preserving the spatio-temporal structure of latent dynamics and outperforms existing approaches in alignment quality.


Domain-Agnostic Batch Bayesian Optimization with Diverse Constraints via Bayesian Quadrature

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Real-world optimisation problems often feature complex combinations of (1) diverse constraints, (2) discrete and mixed spaces, and are (3) highly parallelisable. (4) There are also cases where the objective function cannot be queried if unknown constraints are not satisfied, e.g. in drug discovery, safety on animal experiments (unknown constraints) must be established before human clinical trials (querying objective function) may proceed. However, most existing works target each of the above three problems in isolation and do not consider (4) unknown constraints with query rejection. For problems with diverse constraints and/or unconventional input spaces, it is difficult to apply these techniques as they are often mutually incompatible. We propose cSOBER, a domain-agnostic prudent parallel active sampler for Bayesian optimisation, based on SOBER of Adachi et al. (2023). We consider infeasibility under unknown constraints as a type of integration error that we can estimate. We propose a theoretically-driven approach that propagates such error as a tolerance in the quadrature precision that automatically balances exploitation and exploration with the expected rejection rate. Moreover, our method flexibly accommodates diverse constraints and/or discrete and mixed spaces via adaptive tolerance, including conventional zero-risk cases. We show that cSOBER outperforms competitive baselines on diverse real-world blackbox-constrained problems, including safety-constrained drug discovery, and human-relationship-aware team optimisation over graph-structured space.


Adaptivity Complexity for Causal Graph Discovery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal discovery from interventional data is an important problem, where the task is to design an interventional strategy that learns the hidden ground truth causal graph $G(V,E)$ on $|V| = n$ nodes while minimizing the number of performed interventions. Most prior interventional strategies broadly fall into two categories: non-adaptive and adaptive. Non-adaptive strategies decide on a single fixed set of interventions to be performed while adaptive strategies can decide on which nodes to intervene on sequentially based on past interventions. While adaptive algorithms may use exponentially fewer interventions than their non-adaptive counterparts, there are practical concerns that constrain the amount of adaptivity allowed. Motivated by this trade-off, we study the problem of $r$-adaptivity, where the algorithm designer recovers the causal graph under a total of $r$ sequential rounds whilst trying to minimize the total number of interventions. For this problem, we provide a $r$-adaptive algorithm that achieves $O(\min\{r,\log n\} \cdot n^{1/\min\{r,\log n\}})$ approximation with respect to the verification number, a well-known lower bound for adaptive algorithms. Furthermore, for every $r$, we show that our approximation is tight. Our definition of $r$-adaptivity interpolates nicely between the non-adaptive ($r=1$) and fully adaptive ($r=n$) settings where our approximation simplifies to $O(n)$ and $O(\log n)$ respectively, matching the best-known approximation guarantees for both extremes. Our results also extend naturally to the bounded size interventions.


Ambiguity Meets Uncertainty: Investigating Uncertainty Estimation for Word Sense Disambiguation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Word sense disambiguation (WSD), which aims to determine an appropriate sense for a target word given its context, is crucial for natural language understanding. Existing supervised methods treat WSD as a classification task and have achieved remarkable performance. However, they ignore uncertainty estimation (UE) in the real-world setting, where the data is always noisy and out of distribution. This paper extensively studies UE on the benchmark designed for WSD. Specifically, we first compare four uncertainty scores for a state-of-the-art WSD model and verify that the conventional predictive probabilities obtained at the end of the model are inadequate to quantify uncertainty. Then, we examine the capability of capturing data and model uncertainties by the model with the selected UE score on well-designed test scenarios and discover that the model reflects data uncertainty satisfactorily but underestimates model uncertainty. Furthermore, we explore numerous lexical properties that intrinsically affect data uncertainty and provide a detailed analysis of four critical aspects: the syntactic category, morphology, sense granularity, and semantic relations. The code is available at https://github.com/RyanLiut/WSD-UE.


Unsupervised Discontinuous Constituency Parsing with Mildly Context-Sensitive Grammars

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study grammar induction with mildly context-sensitive grammars for unsupervised discontinuous parsing. Using the probabilistic linear context-free rewriting system (LCFRS) formalism, our approach fixes the rule structure in advance and focuses on parameter learning with maximum likelihood. To reduce the computational complexity of both parsing and parameter estimation, we restrict the grammar formalism to LCFRS-2 (i.e., binary LCFRS with fan-out two) and further discard rules that require O(n^6) time to parse, reducing inference to O(n^5). We find that using a large number of nonterminals is beneficial and thus make use of tensor decomposition-based rank-space dynamic programming with an embedding-based parameterization of rule probabilities to scale up the number of nonterminals. Experiments on German and Dutch show that our approach is able to induce linguistically meaningful trees with continuous and discontinuous structures


Condorcet Markets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Within the classical Condorcet error model for collective binary decisions, we establish equivalence results between elections and markets, showing that the alternative that would be selected by weighed majority voting (under specific weighting schemes) corresponds to the alternative with highest price in the equilibrium of the market (under specific assumptions on the market type). This makes it possible to implement specific weighted majority elections, which are known to have superior truth-tracking performance, through information markets and, crucially, without needing to elicit voters' competences.