Adequate uncertainty representation and quantification have become imperative in various scientific disciplines, especially in machine learning and artificial intelligence. As an alternative to representing uncertainty via one single probability measure, we consider credal sets (convex sets of probability measures). The geometric representation of credal sets as $d$-dimensional polytopes implies a geometric intuition about (epistemic) uncertainty. In this paper, we show that the volume of the geometric representation of a credal set is a meaningful measure of epistemic uncertainty in the case of binary classification, but less so for multi-class classification. Our theoretical findings highlight the crucial role of specifying and employing uncertainty measures in machine learning in an appropriate way, and for being aware of possible pitfalls.

In the field of cryptography, the selection of relevant features plays a crucial role in enhancing the security and efficiency of cryptographic algorithms. This paper presents a novel approach of applying fuzzy feature selection to key-based cryptographic transformations. The proposed fuzzy feature selection leverages the power of fuzzy logic to identify and select optimal subsets of features that contribute most effectively to the cryptographic transformation process. By incorporating fuzzy feature selection into key-based cryptographic transformations, this research aims to improve the resistance against attacks and enhance the overall performance of cryptographic systems. Experimental evaluations may demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in selecting secure key features with minimal computational overhead. This paper highlights the potential of fuzzy feature selection as a valuable tool in the design and optimization of key-based cryptographic algorithms, contributing to the advancement of secure information exchange and communication in various domains.

This paper studies the probability of error associated with the social machine learning framework, which involves an independent training phase followed by a cooperative decision-making phase over a graph. This framework addresses the problem of classifying a stream of unlabeled data in a distributed manner. We consider two kinds of classification tasks with limited observations in the prediction phase, namely, the statistical classification task and the single-sample classification task. For each task, we describe the distributed learning rule and analyze the probability of error accordingly. To do so, we first introduce a stronger consistent training condition that involves the margin distributions generated by the trained classifiers. Based on this condition, we derive an upper bound on the probability of error for both tasks, which depends on the statistical properties of the data and the combination policy used to combine the distributed classifiers. For the statistical classification problem, we employ the geometric social learning rule and conduct a non-asymptotic performance analysis. An exponential decay of the probability of error with respect to the number of unlabeled samples is observed in the upper bound. For the single-sample classification task, a distributed learning rule that functions as an ensemble classifier is constructed. An upper bound on the probability of error of this ensemble classifier is established.

Despite the successes of probabilistic models based on passing noise through neural networks, recent work has identified that such methods often fail to capture tail behavior accurately--unless the tails of the base distribution are appropriately calibrated. To overcome this deficiency, we propose a systematic approach for analyzing the tails of random variables, and we illustrate how this approach can be used during the static analysis (before drawing samples) pass of a probabilistic programming language compiler. To characterize how the tails change under various operations, we develop an algebra which acts on a three-parameter family of tail asymptotics and which is based on the generalized Gamma distribution. Our algebraic operations are closed under addition and multiplication; they are capable of distinguishing sub-Gaussians with differing scales; and they handle ratios sufficiently well to reproduce the tails of most important statistical distributions directly from their definitions. Our empirical results confirm that inference algorithms that leverage our heavy-tailed algebra attain superior performance across a number of density modeling and variational inference tasks.

Schr\"odinger bridges (SBs) provide an elegant framework for modeling the temporal evolution of populations in physical, chemical, or biological systems. Such natural processes are commonly subject to changes in population size over time due to the emergence of new species or birth and death events. However, existing neural parameterizations of SBs such as diffusion Schr\"odinger bridges (DSBs) are restricted to settings in which the endpoints of the stochastic process are both probability measures and assume conservation of mass constraints. To address this limitation, we introduce unbalanced DSBs which model the temporal evolution of marginals with arbitrary finite mass. This is achieved by deriving the time reversal of stochastic differential equations with killing and birth terms. We present two novel algorithmic schemes that comprise a scalable objective function for training unbalanced DSBs and provide a theoretical analysis alongside challenging applications on predicting heterogeneous molecular single-cell responses to various cancer drugs and simulating the emergence and spread of new viral variants.

Multiple measures, such as WEAT or MAC, attempt to quantify the magnitude of bias present in word embeddings in terms of a single-number metric. However, such metrics and the related statistical significance calculations rely on treating pre-averaged data as individual data points and employing bootstrapping techniques with low sample sizes. We show that similar results can be easily obtained using such methods even if the data are generated by a null model lacking the intended bias. Consequently, we argue that this approach generates false confidence. To address this issue, we propose a Bayesian alternative: hierarchical Bayesian modeling, which enables a more uncertainty-sensitive inspection of bias in word embeddings at different levels of granularity. To showcase our method, we apply it to Religion, Gender, and Race word lists from the original research, together with our control neutral word lists. We deploy the method using Google, Glove, and Reddit embeddings. Further, we utilize our approach to evaluate a debiasing technique applied to Reddit word embedding. Our findings reveal a more complex landscape than suggested by the proponents of single-number metrics. The datasets and source code for the paper are publicly available.

Probabilistic programming combines general computer programming, statistical inference, and formal semantics to help systems make decisions when facing uncertainty. Probabilistic programs are ubiquitous, including having a significant impact on machine intelligence. While many probabilistic algorithms have been used in practice in different domains, their automated verification based on formal semantics is still a relatively new research area. In the last two decades, it has attracted much interest. Many challenges, however, remain. The work presented in this paper, probabilistic relations, takes a step towards our vision to tackle these challenges. Our work is based on Hehner's predicative probabilistic programming, but there are several obstacles to the broader adoption of his work. Our contributions here include (1) the formalisation of its syntax and semantics by introducing an Iverson bracket notation to separate relations from arithmetic; (2) the formalisation of relations using Unifying Theories of Programming (UTP) and probabilities outside the brackets using summation over the topological space of the real numbers; (3) the constructive semantics for probabilistic loops using Kleene's fixed-point theorem; (4) the enrichment of its semantics from distributions to subdistributions and superdistributions to deal with the constructive semantics; (5) the unique fixed-point theorem to simplify the reasoning about probabilistic loops; and (6) the mechanisation of our theory in Isabelle/UTP, an implementation of UTP in Isabelle/HOL, for automated reasoning using theorem proving. We demonstrate our work with six examples, including problems in robot localisation, classification in machine learning, and the termination of probabilistic loops.

This work focuses on the problem of learning disentangled representations from observational data. Given observations ${\mathbf{x}^{(i)}}$ for $i=1,...,N $ drawn from $p(\mathbf{x}|\mathbf{y})$ with generative variables $\mathbf{y}$ admitting the distribution factorization $p(\mathbf{y}) = \prod_{c} p(\mathbf{y}_c )$, we ask whether learning disentangled representations matching the space of observations with identification guarantees on the posterior $p(\mathbf{z}| \mathbf{x}, \hat{\mathbf{y}}_c)$ for each $c$, is plausible. We argue modern deep representation learning models of data matching the distributed factorization property are ill-posed with collider bias behaviour; a source of bias producing entanglement between generating variables. Under the rubric of causality, we show this issue can be explained and reconciled under the condition of identifiability; attainable under supervision or a weak-form of it. For this, we propose regularization by identification (ReI), a modular regularization engine designed to align the behavior of large scale DL models with domain knowledge. Empirical evidence shows that enforcing ReI in a variational framework results in interpretable disentangled representations equipped with generalization capabilities to out-of-distribution examples and that aligns nicely with the true expected effect from domain knowledge between generating variables and measurement apparatus.

Accurately detecting crack boundaries is crucial for reliability assessment and risk management of structures and materials, such as structural health monitoring, diagnostics, prognostics, and maintenance scheduling. Uncertainty quantification of crack detection is challenging due to various stochastic factors, such as measurement noises, signal processing, and model simplifications. A machine learning-based approach is proposed to quantify both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties concurrently. We introduce a Bayesian Boundary-Aware Convolutional Network (B-BACN) that emphasizes uncertainty-aware boundary refinement to generate precise and reliable crack boundary detections. The proposed method employs a multi-task learning approach, where we use Monte Carlo Dropout to learn the epistemic uncertainty and a Gaussian sampling function to predict each sample's aleatoric uncertainty. Moreover, we include a boundary refinement loss to B-BACN to enhance the determination of defect boundaries. The proposed method is demonstrated with benchmark experimental results and compared with several existing methods. The experimental results illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach in uncertainty-aware crack boundary detection, minimizing misclassification rate, and improving model calibration capabilities.

Fixed-budget best-arm identification (BAI) is a bandit problem where the agent maximizes the probability of identifying the optimal arm within a fixed budget of observations. In this work, we study this problem in the Bayesian setting. We propose a Bayesian elimination algorithm and derive an upper bound on its probability of misidentifying the optimal arm. The bound reflects the quality of the prior and is the first distribution-dependent bound in this setting. We prove it using a frequentist-like argument, where we carry the prior through, and then integrate out the bandit instance at the end. We also provide a lower bound on the probability of misidentification in a $2$-armed Bayesian bandit and show that our upper bound (almost) matches it for any budget. Our experiments show that Bayesian elimination is superior to frequentist methods and competitive with the state-of-the-art Bayesian algorithms that have no guarantees in our setting.