Uncertainty
Correlation Clustering of Bird Sounds
Bird sound classification is the task of relating any sound recording to those species of bird that can be heard in the recording. Here, we study bird sound clustering, the task of deciding for any pair of sound recordings whether the same species of bird can be heard in both. We address this problem by first learning, from a training set, probabilities of pairs of recordings being related in this way, and then inferring a maximally probable partition of a test set by correlation clustering. We address the following questions: How accurate is this clustering, compared to a classification of the test set? How do the clusters thus inferred relate to the clusters obtained by classification? How accurate is this clustering when applied to recordings of bird species not heard during training? How effective is this clustering in separating, from bird sounds, environmental noise not heard during training?
A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Deep Few-Shot Meta Learning
Kim, Minyoung, Hospedales, Timothy
We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta}.
BISCUIT: Causal Representation Learning from Binary Interactions
Lippe, Phillip, Magliacane, Sara, Löwe, Sindy, Asano, Yuki M., Cohen, Taco, Gavves, Efstratios
Identifying the causal variables of an environment and how to intervene on them is of core value in applications such as robotics and embodied AI. While an agent can commonly interact with the environment and may implicitly perturb the behavior of some of these causal variables, often the targets it affects remain unknown. In this paper, we show that causal variables can still be identified for many common setups, e.g., additive Gaussian noise models, if the agent's interactions with a causal variable can be described by an unknown binary variable. This happens when each causal variable has two different mechanisms, e.g., an observational and an interventional one. Using this identifiability result, we propose BISCUIT, a method for simultaneously learning causal variables and their corresponding binary interaction variables. On three robotic-inspired datasets, BISCUIT accurately identifies causal variables and can even be scaled to complex, realistic environments for embodied AI.
Fairness in Matching under Uncertainty
Devic, Siddartha, Kempe, David, Sharan, Vatsal, Korolova, Aleksandra
Systems based on algorithms and machine learning are increasingly used to guide or outright make decisions which strongly impact human lives; thus it is imperative to take fairness into account when designing such systems. Notions of fairness in computer science can be classified into those that try to capture fairness towards a group (Hardt et al., 2016; Hébert-Johnson et al., 2018; Kearns et al., 2018; Kleinberg et al., 2017) vs. those that try to be fair to each individual Dwork et al. (2012); Kim et al. (2018, 2020). In our work, we focus on the latter notion. The most widely studied notion of individual fairness is due to the seminal work of Dwork et al. (2012): it assumes that a metric space on observable features of individuals captures similarity, and requires that outcomes of a resource allocation mechanism satisfy a certain Lipschitz continuity condition with respect to the given metric. Intuitively, this ensures that individuals who are similar according to the metric will be treated similarly by the mechanism. We consider a setting in which individuals have preferences over the outcomes of the resource allocation mechanism, focusing on the important setting of two-sided markets. Applications of this setting abound: matching students to schools, job fair participants to interviews, doctors to hospitals, patients to treatments, drivers to passengers in ride hailing, or advertisers to ad slots/users in online advertising (Abdulkadiroğlu and Sönmez, 2003; Bronfman et al., 2015; Mehta et al., 2013; Roth, 1986; Roth et al., 2007), to name a
Decomposed Linear Dynamical Systems (dLDS) for learning the latent components of neural dynamics
Mudrik, Noga, Chen, Yenho, Yezerets, Eva, Rozell, Christopher J., Charles, Adam S.
Learning interpretable representations of neural dynamics at a population level is a crucial first step to understanding how observed neural activity relates to perception and behavior. Models of neural dynamics often focus on either low-dimensional projections of neural activity, or on learning dynamical systems that explicitly relate to the neural state over time. We discuss how these two approaches are interrelated by considering dynamical systems as representative of flows on a low-dimensional manifold. Building on this concept, we propose a new decomposed dynamical system model that represents complex non-stationary and nonlinear dynamics of time series data as a sparse combination of simpler, more interpretable components. Our model is trained through a dictionary learning procedure, where we leverage recent results in tracking sparse vectors over time. The decomposed nature of the dynamics is more expressive than previous switched approaches for a given number of parameters and enables modeling of overlapping and non-stationary dynamics. In both continuous-time and discrete-time instructional examples we demonstrate that our model can well approximate the original system, learn efficient representations, and capture smooth transitions between dynamical modes, focusing on intuitive low-dimensional non-stationary linear and nonlinear systems. Furthermore, we highlight our model's ability to efficiently capture and demix population dynamics generated from multiple independent subnetworks, a task that is computationally impractical for switched models. Finally, we apply our model to neural "full brain" recordings of C. elegans data, illustrating a diversity of dynamics that is obscured when classified into discrete states.
Is the Volume of a Credal Set a Good Measure for Epistemic Uncertainty?
Sale, Yusuf, Caprio, Michele, Hüllermeier, Eyke
Adequate uncertainty representation and quantification have become imperative in various scientific disciplines, especially in machine learning and artificial intelligence. As an alternative to representing uncertainty via one single probability measure, we consider credal sets (convex sets of probability measures). The geometric representation of credal sets as $d$-dimensional polytopes implies a geometric intuition about (epistemic) uncertainty. In this paper, we show that the volume of the geometric representation of a credal set is a meaningful measure of epistemic uncertainty in the case of binary classification, but less so for multi-class classification. Our theoretical findings highlight the crucial role of specifying and employing uncertainty measures in machine learning in an appropriate way, and for being aware of possible pitfalls.
Fuzzy Feature Selection with Key-based Cryptographic Transformations
In the field of cryptography, the selection of relevant features plays a crucial role in enhancing the security and efficiency of cryptographic algorithms. This paper presents a novel approach of applying fuzzy feature selection to key-based cryptographic transformations. The proposed fuzzy feature selection leverages the power of fuzzy logic to identify and select optimal subsets of features that contribute most effectively to the cryptographic transformation process. By incorporating fuzzy feature selection into key-based cryptographic transformations, this research aims to improve the resistance against attacks and enhance the overall performance of cryptographic systems. Experimental evaluations may demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in selecting secure key features with minimal computational overhead. This paper highlights the potential of fuzzy feature selection as a valuable tool in the design and optimization of key-based cryptographic algorithms, contributing to the advancement of secure information exchange and communication in various domains.
Non-Asymptotic Performance of Social Machine Learning Under Limited Data
Hu, Ping, Bordignon, Virginia, Kayaalp, Mert, Sayed, Ali H.
This paper studies the probability of error associated with the social machine learning framework, which involves an independent training phase followed by a cooperative decision-making phase over a graph. This framework addresses the problem of classifying a stream of unlabeled data in a distributed manner. We consider two kinds of classification tasks with limited observations in the prediction phase, namely, the statistical classification task and the single-sample classification task. For each task, we describe the distributed learning rule and analyze the probability of error accordingly. To do so, we first introduce a stronger consistent training condition that involves the margin distributions generated by the trained classifiers. Based on this condition, we derive an upper bound on the probability of error for both tasks, which depends on the statistical properties of the data and the combination policy used to combine the distributed classifiers. For the statistical classification problem, we employ the geometric social learning rule and conduct a non-asymptotic performance analysis. An exponential decay of the probability of error with respect to the number of unlabeled samples is observed in the upper bound. For the single-sample classification task, a distributed learning rule that functions as an ensemble classifier is constructed. An upper bound on the probability of error of this ensemble classifier is established.
A Heavy-Tailed Algebra for Probabilistic Programming
Liang, Feynman, Hodgkinson, Liam, Mahoney, Michael W.
Despite the successes of probabilistic models based on passing noise through neural networks, recent work has identified that such methods often fail to capture tail behavior accurately--unless the tails of the base distribution are appropriately calibrated. To overcome this deficiency, we propose a systematic approach for analyzing the tails of random variables, and we illustrate how this approach can be used during the static analysis (before drawing samples) pass of a probabilistic programming language compiler. To characterize how the tails change under various operations, we develop an algebra which acts on a three-parameter family of tail asymptotics and which is based on the generalized Gamma distribution. Our algebraic operations are closed under addition and multiplication; they are capable of distinguishing sub-Gaussians with differing scales; and they handle ratios sufficiently well to reproduce the tails of most important statistical distributions directly from their definitions. Our empirical results confirm that inference algorithms that leverage our heavy-tailed algebra attain superior performance across a number of density modeling and variational inference tasks.
Unbalanced Diffusion Schr\"odinger Bridge
Pariset, Matteo, Hsieh, Ya-Ping, Bunne, Charlotte, Krause, Andreas, De Bortoli, Valentin
Schr\"odinger bridges (SBs) provide an elegant framework for modeling the temporal evolution of populations in physical, chemical, or biological systems. Such natural processes are commonly subject to changes in population size over time due to the emergence of new species or birth and death events. However, existing neural parameterizations of SBs such as diffusion Schr\"odinger bridges (DSBs) are restricted to settings in which the endpoints of the stochastic process are both probability measures and assume conservation of mass constraints. To address this limitation, we introduce unbalanced DSBs which model the temporal evolution of marginals with arbitrary finite mass. This is achieved by deriving the time reversal of stochastic differential equations with killing and birth terms. We present two novel algorithmic schemes that comprise a scalable objective function for training unbalanced DSBs and provide a theoretical analysis alongside challenging applications on predicting heterogeneous molecular single-cell responses to various cancer drugs and simulating the emergence and spread of new viral variants.