Diffusion Schr\"odinger bridges (DSB) have recently emerged as a powerful framework for recovering stochastic dynamics via their marginal observations at different time points. Despite numerous successful applications, existing algorithms for solving DSBs have so far failed to utilize the structure of aligned data, which naturally arises in many biological phenomena. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithmic framework that, for the first time, solves DSBs while respecting the data alignment. Our approach hinges on a combination of two decades-old ideas: The classical Schr\"odinger bridge theory and Doob's $h$-transform. Compared to prior methods, our approach leads to a simpler training procedure with lower variance, which we further augment with principled regularization schemes. This ultimately leads to sizeable improvements across experiments on synthetic and real data, including the tasks of rigid protein docking and temporal evolution of cellular differentiation processes.

We propose a new model, independent linear Markov game, for multi-agent reinforcement learning with a large state space and a large number of agents. This is a class of Markov games with independent linear function approximation, where each agent has its own function approximation for the state-action value functions that are marginalized by other players' policies. We design new algorithms for learning the Markov coarse correlated equilibria (CCE) and Markov correlated equilibria (CE) with sample complexity bounds that only scale polynomially with each agent's own function class complexity, thus breaking the curse of multiagents. In contrast, existing works for Markov games with function approximation have sample complexity bounds scale with the size of the \emph{joint action space} when specialized to the canonical tabular Markov game setting, which is exponentially large in the number of agents. Our algorithms rely on two key technical innovations: (1) utilizing policy replay to tackle non-stationarity incurred by multiple agents and the use of function approximation; (2) separating learning Markov equilibria and exploration in the Markov games, which allows us to use the full-information no-regret learning oracle instead of the stronger bandit-feedback no-regret learning oracle used in the tabular setting. Furthermore, we propose an iterative-best-response type algorithm that can learn pure Markov Nash equilibria in independent linear Markov potential games. In the tabular case, by adapting the policy replay mechanism for independent linear Markov games, we propose an algorithm with $\widetilde{O}(\epsilon^{-2})$ sample complexity to learn Markov CCE, which improves the state-of-the-art result $\widetilde{O}(\epsilon^{-3})$ in Daskalakis et al. 2022, where $\epsilon$ is the desired accuracy, and also significantly improves other problem parameters.

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful inductive biases, which constrain the regression hypothesis space and improve predictive performance. We introduce collider regression, a framework to incorporate probabilistic causal knowledge from a collider in a regression problem. When the hypothesis space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we prove a strictly positive generalisation benefit under mild assumptions and provide closed-form estimators of the empirical risk minimiser. Experiments on synthetic and climate model data demonstrate performance gains of the proposed methodology.

In this article, I take inspiration from stochastic thermodynamics to derive a problem formulation for online learning in uncertain MDPs while grounded in system dynamics. The system balances the diffusion process with drif dynamics as a way to formulate the explorationexploitation trade-off. To this effect, I make an explicit link between the information entropy and the stochastic dynamics of a system coupled to an environment. I analyze various sources of entropy production: due to the decision-maker's uncertainty about the system-environment interaction characteristics; due to the stochastic nature of system dynamics; and the interaction of the decision maker's knowledge with system dynamics. This analysis provides a framework that can be formulated either as a maximum entropy program to derive efficient policies that balance the exploration and exploitation trade-off, or as a modified cost optimization program that includes informational costs and benefits.

Conditional independence (CI) testing is frequently used in data analysis and machine learning for various scientific fields and it forms the basis of constraint-based causal discovery. Oftentimes, CI testing relies on strong, rather unrealistic assumptions. One of these assumptions is homoskedasticity, in other words, a constant conditional variance is assumed. We frame heteroskedasticity in a structural causal model framework and present an adaptation of the partial correlation CI test that works well in the presence of heteroskedastic noise, given that expert knowledge about the heteroskedastic relationships is available. Further, we provide theoretical consistency results for the proposed CI test which carry over to causal discovery under certain assumptions. Numerical causal discovery experiments demonstrate that the adapted partial correlation CI test outperforms the standard test in the presence of heteroskedasticity and is on par for the homoskedastic case. Finally, we discuss the general challenges and limits as to how expert knowledge about heteroskedasticity can be accounted for in causal discovery.

An obstacle to artificial general intelligence is set by continual learning of multiple tasks of different nature. Recently, various heuristic tricks, both from machine learning and from neuroscience angles, were proposed, but they lack a unified theory ground. Here, we focus on continual learning in single-layered and multi-layered neural networks of binary weights. A variational Bayesian learning setting is thus proposed, where the neural networks are trained in a field-space, rather than gradient-ill-defined discrete-weight space, and furthermore, weight uncertainty is naturally incorporated, and modulates synaptic resources among tasks. From a physics perspective, we translate the variational continual learning into Franz-Parisi thermodynamic potential framework, where previous task knowledge acts as a prior and a reference as well. We thus interpret the continual learning of the binary perceptron in a teacher-student setting as a Franz-Parisi potential computation. The learning performance can then be analytically studied with mean-field order parameters, whose predictions coincide with numerical experiments using stochastic gradient descent methods. Based on the variational principle and Gaussian field approximation of internal preactivations in hidden layers, we also derive the learning algorithm considering weight uncertainty, which solves the continual learning with binary weights using multi-layered neural networks, and performs better than the currently available metaplasticity algorithm where binary synapses bear hidden continuous states and the synaptic plasticity is modulated by a heuristic regularization function. Our proposed principled frameworks also connect to elastic weight consolidation, weight-uncertainty modulated learning, and neuroscience inspired metaplasticity, providing a theory-grounded method for the real-world multi-task learning with deep networks.

A survival dataset describes a set of instances (e.g. patients) and provides, for each, either the time until an event (e.g. death), or the censoring time (e.g. when lost to follow-up - which is a lower bound on the time until the event). We consider the challenge of survival prediction: learning, from such data, a predictive model that can produce an individual survival distribution for a novel instance. Many contemporary methods of survival prediction implicitly assume that the event and censoring distributions are independent conditional on the instance's covariates - a strong assumption that is difficult to verify (as we observe only one outcome for each instance) and which can induce significant bias when it does not hold. This paper presents a parametric model of survival that extends modern non-linear survival analysis by relaxing the assumption of conditional independence. On synthetic and semi-synthetic data, our approach significantly improves estimates of survival distributions compared to the standard that assumes conditional independence in the data.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is a sample efficient technique to obtain control policies, yet unavoidable modeling errors often lead performance deterioration. The model in MBRL is often solely fitted to reconstruct dynamics, state observations in particular, while the impact of model error on the policy is not captured by the training objective. This leads to a mismatch between the intended goal of MBRL, enabling good policy and value learning, and the target of the loss function employed in practice, future state prediction. Naive intuition would suggest that value-aware model learning would fix this problem and, indeed, several solutions to this objective mismatch problem have been proposed based on theoretical analysis. However, they tend to be inferior in practice to commonly used maximum likelihood (MLE) based approaches. In this paper we propose the Value-gradient weighted Model Learning (VaGraM), a novel method for value-aware model learning which improves the performance of MBRL in challenging settings, such as small model capacity and the presence of distracting state dimensions. We analyze both MLE and value-aware approaches and demonstrate how they fail to account for exploration and the behavior of function approximation when learning value-aware models and highlight the additional goals that must be met to stabilize optimization in the deep learning setting. We verify our analysis by showing that our loss function is able to achieve high returns on the Mujoco benchmark suite while being more robust than maximum likelihood based approaches.

We study statistical/computational tradeoffs for the following density estimation problem: given $k$ distributions $v_1, \ldots, v_k$ over a discrete domain of size $n$, and sampling access to a distribution $p$, identify $v_i$ that is "close" to $p$. Our main result is the first data structure that, given a sublinear (in $n$) number of samples from $p$, identifies $v_i$ in time sublinear in $k$. We also give an improved version of the algorithm of Acharya et al. (2018) that reports $v_i$ in time linear in $k$. The experimental evaluation of the latter algorithm shows that it achieves a significant reduction in the number of operations needed to achieve a given accuracy compared to prior work.

Neural networks trained on model simulations enable amortized inference: A pre-trained network can be stored and re-used for Bayesian inference on millions of data sets (von This work proposes "jointly amortized neural Krause et al., 2022). Crucially, most previous neural approaches approximation" (JANA) of intractable likelihood have tackled either SM or SBI in isolation, but little functions and posterior densities arising in attention has been paid to learning both tasks simultaneously. Bayesian surrogate modeling and simulation-based To address this gap, we propose JANA ("Jointly Amortized inference. We train three complementary networks Neural Approximation"), a Bayesian neural framework for in an end-to-end fashion: 1) a summary network simultaneously amortized SM and SBI, and show how it enables to compress individual data points, sets, or time novel solutions to challenging downstream tasks like series into informative embedding vectors; 2) a posterior the estimation of marginal and posterior predictive distributions network to learn an amortized approximate (see Figure 1). JANA also presents a major qualitative posterior; and 3) a likelihood network to learn an upgrade to the BayesFlow framework (Radev et al., 2020), amortized approximate likelihood. Their interaction which was originally designed for amortized SBI alone.