For safety, AI systems in health undergo thorough evaluations before deployment, validating their predictions against a ground truth that is assumed certain. However, this is actually not the case and the ground truth may be uncertain. Unfortunately, this is largely ignored in standard evaluation of AI models but can have severe consequences such as overestimating the future performance. To avoid this, we measure the effects of ground truth uncertainty, which we assume decomposes into two main components: annotation uncertainty which stems from the lack of reliable annotations, and inherent uncertainty due to limited observational information. This ground truth uncertainty is ignored when estimating the ground truth by deterministically aggregating annotations, e.g., by majority voting or averaging. In contrast, we propose a framework where aggregation is done using a statistical model. Specifically, we frame aggregation of annotations as posterior inference of so-called plausibilities, representing distributions over classes in a classification setting, subject to a hyper-parameter encoding annotator reliability. Based on this model, we propose a metric for measuring annotation uncertainty and provide uncertainty-adjusted metrics for performance evaluation. We present a case study applying our framework to skin condition classification from images where annotations are provided in the form of differential diagnoses. The deterministic adjudication process called inverse rank normalization (IRN) from previous work ignores ground truth uncertainty in evaluation. Instead, we present two alternative statistical models: a probabilistic version of IRN and a Plackett-Luce-based model. We find that a large portion of the dataset exhibits significant ground truth uncertainty and standard IRN-based evaluation severely over-estimates performance without providing uncertainty estimates.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

For autonomous driving, traversability analysis is one of the most basic and essential tasks. In this paper, we propose a novel LiDAR-based terrain modeling approach, which could output stable, complete and accurate terrain models and traversability analysis results. As terrain is an inherent property of the environment that does not change with different view angles, our approach adopts a multi-frame information fusion strategy for terrain modeling. Specifically, a normal distributions transform mapping approach is adopted to accurately model the terrain by fusing information from consecutive LiDAR frames. Then the spatial-temporal Bayesian generalized kernel inference and bilateral filtering are utilized to promote the stability and completeness of the results while simultaneously retaining the sharp terrain edges. Based on the terrain modeling results, the traversability of each region is obtained by performing geometric connectivity analysis between neighboring terrain regions. Experimental results show that the proposed method could run in real-time and outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

Knowing the features of a complex system that are highly relevant to a particular target variable is of fundamental interest in many areas of science. Existing approaches are often limited to linear settings, sometimes lack guarantees, and in most cases, do not scale to the problem at hand, in particular to images. We propose DRCFS, a doubly robust feature selection method for identifying the causal features even in nonlinear and high dimensional settings. We provide theoretical guarantees, illustrate necessary conditions for our assumptions, and perform extensive experiments across a wide range of simulated and semi-synthetic datasets. DRCFS significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods, selecting robust features even in challenging highly non-linear and high-dimensional problems.

Batch Bayesian optimisation and Bayesian quadrature have been shown to be sample-efficient methods of performing optimisation and quadrature where expensive-to-evaluate objective functions can be queried in parallel. However, current methods do not scale to large batch sizes -- a frequent desideratum in practice (e.g. drug discovery or simulation-based inference). We present a novel algorithm, SOBER, which permits scalable and diversified batch global optimisation and quadrature with arbitrary acquisition functions and kernels over discrete and mixed spaces. The key to our approach is to reformulate batch selection for global optimisation as a quadrature problem, which relaxes acquisition function maximisation (non-convex) to kernel recombination (convex). Bridging global optimisation and quadrature can efficiently solve both tasks by balancing the merits of exploitative Bayesian optimisation and explorative Bayesian quadrature. We show that SOBER outperforms 11 competitive baselines on 12 synthetic and diverse real-world tasks.

We study efficient mechanisms for differentially private kernel density estimation (DP-KDE). Prior work for the Gaussian kernel described algorithms that run in time exponential in the number of dimensions $d$. This paper breaks the exponential barrier, and shows how the KDE can privately be approximated in time linear in $d$, making it feasible for high-dimensional data. We also present improved bounds for low-dimensional data. Our results are obtained through a general framework, which we term Locality Sensitive Quantization (LSQ), for constructing private KDE mechanisms where existing KDE approximation techniques can be applied. It lets us leverage several efficient non-private KDE methods -- like Random Fourier Features, the Fast Gauss Transform, and Locality Sensitive Hashing -- and ``privatize'' them in a black-box manner. Our experiments demonstrate that our resulting DP-KDE mechanisms are fast and accurate on large datasets in both high and low dimensions.

As sequential neural architectures become deeper and more complex, uncertainty estimation is more and more challenging. Efforts in quantifying uncertainty often rely on specific training procedures, and bear additional computational costs due to the dimensionality of such models. In this paper, we propose to decompose a classification or regression task in two steps: a representation learning stage to learn low-dimensional states, and a state space model for uncertainty estimation. This approach allows to separate representation learning and design of generative models. We demonstrate how predictive distributions can be estimated on top of an existing and trained neural network, by adding a state space-based last layer whose parameters are estimated with Sequential Monte Carlo methods. We apply our proposed methodology to the hourly estimation of Electricity Transformer Oil temperature, a publicly benchmarked dataset. Our model accounts for the noisy data structure, due to unknown or unavailable variables, and is able to provide confidence intervals on predictions.

From a service perspective, Multi-Source Domain Adaptation (MSDA) is a promising scenario to adapt a deployed model to a client's dataset. It can provide adaptation without a target label and support the case where a source dataset is constructed from multiple domains. However, it is impractical, wherein its training heavily relies on prior domain information of the multi-source dataset -- how many domains exist and the domain label of each data sample. Moreover, MSDA requires both source and target datasets simultaneously (physically), causing storage limitations on the client device or data privacy issues by transferring client data to a server. For a more practical scenario of model adaptation from a service provider's point of view, we relax these constraints and present a novel problem scenario of Three-Free Domain Adaptation, namely TFDA, where 1) target labels, 2) source dataset, and mostly 3) source domain information (domain labels + the number of domains) are unavailable. Under the problem scenario, we propose a practical adaptation framework called FREEDOM. It leverages the power of the generative model, disentangling data into class and style aspects, where the style is defined as the class-independent information from the source data and designed with a nonparametric Bayesian approach. In the adaptation stage, FREEDOM aims to match the source class distribution with the target's under the philosophy that class distribution is consistent even if the style is different; after then, only part of the classification model is deployed as a personalized network. As a result, FREEDOM achieves state-of-the-art or comparable performance even without domain information, with reduced final model size on the target side, independent of the number of source domains.

Localizing mobile robotic nodes in indoor and GPS-denied environments is a complex problem, particularly in dynamic, unstructured scenarios where traditional cameras and LIDAR-based sensing and localization modalities may fail. Alternatively, wireless signal-based localization has been extensively studied in the literature yet primarily focuses on fingerprinting and feature-matching paradigms, requiring dedicated environment-specific offline data collection. We propose an online robot localization algorithm enabled by collaborative wireless sensor nodes to remedy these limitations. Our approach's core novelty lies in obtaining the Collaborative Direction of Arrival (CDOA) of wireless signals by exploiting the geometric features and collaboration between wireless nodes. The CDOA is combined with the Expectation Maximization (EM) and Particle Filter (PF) algorithms to calculate the Gaussian probability of the node's location with high efficiency and accuracy. The algorithm relies on RSSI-only data, making it ubiquitous to resource-constrained devices. We theoretically analyze the approach and extensively validate the proposed method's consistency, accuracy, and computational efficiency in simulations, real-world public datasets, as well as real robot demonstrations. The results validate the method's real-time computational capability and demonstrate considerably-high centimeter-level localization accuracy, outperforming relevant state-of-the-art localization approaches.

Principled accountability for autonomous decision-making in uncertain environments requires distinguishing intentional outcomes from negligent designs from actual accidents. We propose analyzing the behavior of autonomous agents through a quantitative measure of the evidence of intentional behavior. We model an uncertain environment as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). For a given scenario, we rely on probabilistic model checking to compute the ability of the agent to influence reaching a certain event. We call this the scope of agency. We say that there is evidence of intentional behavior if the scope of agency is high and the decisions of the agent are close to being optimal for reaching the event. Our method applies counterfactual reasoning to automatically generate relevant scenarios that can be analyzed to increase the confidence of our assessment. In a case study, we show how our method can distinguish between 'intentional' and 'accidental' traffic collisions.