Bayesian inference offers benefits over maximum likelihood, but it also comes with computational costs. Computing the posterior is typically intractable, as is marginalizing that posterior to form the posterior predictive distribution. In this paper, we present variational prediction, a technique for directly learning a variational approximation to the posterior predictive distribution using a variational bound. This approach can provide good predictive distributions without test time marginalization costs. We demonstrate Variational Prediction on an illustrative toy example.

Federated Learning (FL) emerges as a distributed machine learning paradigm without end-user data transmission, effectively avoiding privacy leakage. Participating devices in FL are usually bandwidth-constrained, and the uplink is much slower than the downlink in wireless networks, which causes a severe uplink communication bottleneck. A prominent direction to alleviate this problem is federated dropout, which drops fractional weights of local models. However, existing federated dropout studies focus on random or ordered dropout and lack theoretical support, resulting in unguaranteed performance. In this paper, we propose Federated learning with Bayesian Inference-based Adaptive Dropout (FedBIAD), which regards weight rows of local models as probability distributions and adaptively drops partial weight rows based on importance indicators correlated with the trend of local training loss. By applying FedBIAD, each client adaptively selects a high-quality dropping pattern with accurate approximations and only transmits parameters of non-dropped weight rows to mitigate uplink costs while improving accuracy. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that the convergence rate of the average generalization error of FedBIAD is minimax optimal up to a squared logarithmic factor. Extensive experiments on image classification and next-word prediction show that compared with status quo approaches, FedBIAD provides 2x uplink reduction with an accuracy increase of up to 2.41% even on non-Independent and Identically Distributed (non-IID) data, which brings up to 72% decrease in training time.

The $\texttt{torch-choice}$ is an open-source library for flexible, fast choice modeling with Python and PyTorch. $\texttt{torch-choice}$ provides a $\texttt{ChoiceDataset}$ data structure to manage databases flexibly and memory-efficiently. The paper demonstrates constructing a $\texttt{ChoiceDataset}$ from databases of various formats and functionalities of $\texttt{ChoiceDataset}$. The package implements two widely used models, namely the multinomial logit and nested logit models, and supports regularization during model estimation. The package incorporates the option to take advantage of GPUs for estimation, allowing it to scale to massive datasets while being computationally efficient. Models can be initialized using either R-style formula strings or Python dictionaries. We conclude with a comparison of the computational efficiencies of $\texttt{torch-choice}$ and $\texttt{mlogit}$ in R as (1) the number of observations increases, (2) the number of covariates increases, and (3) the expansion of item sets. Finally, we demonstrate the scalability of $\texttt{torch-choice}$ on large-scale datasets.

Incorporating unstructured data into physical models is a challenging problem that is emerging in data assimilation. Traditional approaches focus on well-defined observation operators whose functional forms are typically assumed to be known. This prevents these methods from achieving a consistent model-data synthesis in configurations where the mapping from data-space to model-space is unknown. To address these shortcomings, in this paper we develop a physics-informed dynamical variational autoencoder ($\Phi$-DVAE) to embed diverse data streams into time-evolving physical systems described by differential equations. Our approach combines a standard, possibly nonlinear, filter for the latent state-space model and a VAE, to assimilate the unstructured data into the latent dynamical system. Unstructured data, in our example systems, comes in the form of video data and velocity field measurements, however the methodology is suitably generic to allow for arbitrary unknown observation operators. A variational Bayesian framework is used for the joint estimation of the encoding, latent states, and unknown system parameters. To demonstrate the method, we provide case studies with the Lorenz-63 ordinary differential equation, and the advection and Korteweg-de Vries partial differential equations. Our results, with synthetic data, show that $\Phi$-DVAE provides a data efficient dynamics encoding methodology which is competitive with standard approaches. Unknown parameters are recovered with uncertainty quantification, and unseen data are accurately predicted.

Despite the existence of numerous designs, significant research efforts, and successful applications in the field of control systems, the development of a reliable and secure controller that combines robust theoretical foundations with exceptional performance continues to present a formidable challenge. This challenge has captured the attention of researchers from diverse fields, including robotics [1] and healthcare [2], among others. In the context of control systems, safety is evaluated based on the system state. In this study, we focus on probabilistic safe control, wherein a safe controller is expected to prevent the system from entering hazardous states with an acceptable probability [3-5]. Due to the intricate nature of calculating the safe state space for a general dynamics-driven system, ensuring safety by designing or learning a safe controller is rather complex. Existing safe control strategies include model predictive control [6], reachability analysis [7], and control barrier function (CBF) method [8]. In our research, we build upon the CBF method, which ensures that the system state remains within safe regions by defining a forward invariant set. This set is a subset of the safe region and restricts the system state within its boundaries. Furthermore, we take into account the presence of uncertainty, which not only have a more significant impact on the system state than small disturbances [9], and does not have an analytical format as well [10].

In their seminal 1990 paper, Wasserman and Kadane establish an upper bound for the Bayes' posterior probability of a measurable set $A$, when the prior lies in a class of probability measures $\mathcal{P}$ and the likelihood is precise. They also give a sufficient condition for such upper bound to hold with equality. In this paper, we introduce a generalization of their result by additionally addressing uncertainty related to the likelihood. We give an upper bound for the posterior probability when both the prior and the likelihood belong to a set of probabilities. Furthermore, we give a sufficient condition for this upper bound to become an equality. This result is interesting on its own, and has the potential of being applied to various fields of engineering (e.g. model predictive control), machine learning, and artificial intelligence.

This paper presents a new approach to automatically discovering accurate models of complex time series data. Working within a Bayesian nonparametric prior over a symbolic space of Gaussian process time series models, we present a novel structure learning algorithm that integrates sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and involutive MCMC for highly effective posterior inference. Our method can be used both in "online" settings, where new data is incorporated sequentially in time, and in "offline" settings, by using nested subsets of historical data to anneal the posterior. Empirical measurements on real-world time series show that our method can deliver 10x--100x runtime speedups over previous MCMC and greedy-search structure learning algorithms targeting the same model family. We use our method to perform the first large-scale evaluation of Gaussian process time series structure learning on a prominent benchmark of 1,428 econometric datasets. The results show that our method discovers sensible models that deliver more accurate point forecasts and interval forecasts over multiple horizons as compared to widely used statistical and neural baselines that struggle on this challenging data.

We formalize the problem of contextual optimization through the lens of Bayesian experimental design and propose CO-BED -- a general, model-agnostic framework for designing contextual experiments using information-theoretic principles. After formulating a suitable information-based objective, we employ black-box variational methods to simultaneously estimate it and optimize the designs in a single stochastic gradient scheme. In addition, to accommodate discrete actions within our framework, we propose leveraging continuous relaxation schemes, which can naturally be integrated into our variational objective. As a result, CO-BED provides a general and automated solution to a wide range of contextual optimization problems. We illustrate its effectiveness in a number of experiments, where CO-BED demonstrates competitive performance even when compared to bespoke, model-specific alternatives.

Reinforcement Learning or optimal control can provide effective reasoning for sequential decision-making problems with variable dynamics. Such reasoning in practical implementation, however, poses a persistent challenge in interpreting the reward function and corresponding optimal policy. Consequently, formalizing the sequential decision-making problems as inference has a considerable value, as probabilistic inference in principle offers diverse and powerful mathematical tools to infer the stochastic dynamics whilst suggesting a probabilistic interpretation of the reward design and policy convergence. In this study, we propose a novel Adaptive Wasserstein Variational Optimization (AWaVO) to tackle these challenges in sequential decision-making. Our approach utilizes formal methods to provide interpretations of reward design, transparency of training convergence, and probabilistic interpretation of sequential decisions. To demonstrate practicality, we show convergent training with guaranteed global convergence rates not only in simulation but also in real robot tasks, and empirically verify a reasonable tradeoff between high performance and conservative interpretability.

Unfortunately, the limited availability of labelled training data hinders the development of the statistical models on which these decision-support systems rely. Population-based SHM seeks to mitigate the impact of data scarcity by using transfer learning techniques to share information between individual structures within a population. The current paper proposes a decision framework for selecting transfer strategies based upon a novel concept - the expected value of information transfer - such that negative transfer is avoided. By avoiding negative transfer, and by optimising information transfer strategies using the transfer-decision framework, one can reduce the costs associated with operating and maintaining structures, and improve safety. INTRODUCTION Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems provide a means of augmenting operation and maintenance decision processes with up-to-date information regarding the health-state of a structure or system [1]. In order to assign features extracted from sensor data to meaningful categories in the context of the decision process (e.g.