We present a new framework called KorraAI for conceiving and building embodied conversational agents (ECAs). Our framework models ECAs' behavior considering contextual information, for example, about environment and interaction time, and uncertain information provided by the human interaction partner. Moreover, agents built with KorraAI can show proactive behavior, as they can initiate interactions with human partners. For these purposes, KorraAI exploits probabilistic programming. Probabilistic models in KorraAI are used to model its behavior and interactions with the user. They enable adaptation to the user's preferences and a certain degree of indeterminism in the ECAs to achieve more natural behavior. Human-like internal states, such as moods, preferences, and emotions (e.g., surprise), can be modeled in KorraAI with distributions and Bayesian networks. These models can evolve over time, even without interaction with the user. ECA models are implemented as plugins and share a common interface. This enables ECA designers to focus more on the character they are modeling and less on the technical details, as well as to store and exchange ECA models. Several applications of KorraAI ECAs are possible, such as virtual sales agents, customer service agents, virtual companions, entertainers, or tutors.

Abstract--With the emergence of new application areas, such as cyber-physical systems and human-in-the-loop applications, there is a need to guarantee a certain level of end-to-end network latency with extremely high reliability, e.g., 99.999%. While mechanisms specified under IEEE 802.1as time-sensitive networking (TSN) can be used to achieve these requirements for switched Ethernet networks, implementing TSN mechanisms in wireless networks is challenging due to their stochastic nature. To conform the wireless link to a reliability level of 99.999%, the behavior of extremely rare outliers in the latency probability distribution, or the tail of the distribution, must be analyzed and controlled. This work proposes predicting the tail of the latency distribution using state-of-the-art data-driven approaches, such as mixture density networks (MDN) and extreme value mixture models, to estimate the likelihood of rare latencies conditioned on the network parameters, which can be used to make more informed decisions in wireless transmission. Actual latency measurements of IEEE 802.11g (WiFi), commercial private and a software-defined 5G network are used to benchmark the proposed approaches and evaluate their sensitivities concerning the tail probabilities.

Bayes' rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may observe that the inversion of the whole can be computed piecewise in terms of the component processes. We study the structure of this compositional rule, noting that it relates to the lens pattern in functional programming. Working in a suitably general axiomatic presentation of a category of Markov kernels, we see how we can think of Bayesian inversion as a particular instance of a state-dependent morphism in a fibred category. We discuss the compositional nature of this, formulated as a functor on the underlying category and explore how this can used for a more type-driven approach to statistical inference.

The motion objectives of a planning as inference problem are formulated as a joint distribution over coupled random variables on a factor graph. Leveraging optimization-inference duality, a fast solution to the maximum a posteriori estimation of the factor graph can be obtained via least-squares optimization. The computational efficiency of this approach can be used in competitive autonomous racing for finding the minimum curvature raceline. Finding the raceline is classified as a global planning problem that entails the computation of a minimum curvature path for a racecar which offers highest cornering speed for a given racetrack resulting in reduced lap time. This work introduces a novel methodology for formulating the minimum curvature raceline planning problem as probabilistic inference on a factor graph. By exploiting the tangential geometry and structural properties inherent in the minimum curvature planning problem, we represent it on a factor graph, which is subsequently solved via sparse least-squares optimization. The results obtained by performing comparative analysis with the quadratic programming-based methodology, the proposed approach demonstrated the superior computing performance, as it provides comparable lap time reduction while achieving fourfold improvement in computational efficiency.

We propose a novel Bayesian-Optimistic Frequentist Upper Confidence Bound (BOF-UCB) algorithm for stochastic contextual linear bandits in non-stationary environments. This unique combination of Bayesian and frequentist principles enhances adaptability and performance in dynamic settings. The BOF-UCB algorithm utilizes sequential Bayesian updates to infer the posterior distribution of the unknown regression parameter, and subsequently employs a frequentist approach to compute the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) by maximizing the expected reward over the posterior distribution. We provide theoretical guarantees of BOF-UCB's performance and demonstrate its effectiveness in balancing exploration and exploitation on synthetic datasets and classical control tasks in a reinforcement learning setting. Our results show that BOF-UCB outperforms existing methods, making it a promising solution for sequential decision-making in non-stationary environments.

We study Bayesian histograms for distribution estimation on $[0,1]^d$ under the Wasserstein $W_v, 1 \leq v < \infty$ distance in the i.i.d sampling regime. We newly show that when $d < 2v$, histograms possess a special \textit{memory efficiency} property, whereby in reference to the sample size $n$, order $n^{d/2v}$ bins are needed to obtain minimax rate optimality. This result holds for the posterior mean histogram and with respect to posterior contraction: under the class of Borel probability measures and some classes of smooth densities. The attained memory footprint overcomes existing minimax optimal procedures by a polynomial factor in $n$; for example an $n^{1 - d/2v}$ factor reduction in the footprint when compared to the empirical measure, a minimax estimator in the Borel probability measure class. Additionally constructing both the posterior mean histogram and the posterior itself can be done super--linearly in $n$. Due to the popularity of the $W_1,W_2$ metrics and the coverage provided by the $d < 2v$ case, our results are of most practical interest in the $(d=1,v =1,2), (d=2,v=2), (d=3,v=2)$ settings and we provide simulations demonstrating the theory in several of these instances.

Bayesian nonparametric mixture models are widely used to cluster observations. However, one major drawback of the approach is that the estimated partition often presents unbalanced clusters' frequencies with only a few dominating clusters and a large number of sparsely-populated ones. This feature translates into results that are often uninterpretable unless we accept to ignore a relevant number of observations and clusters. Interpreting the posterior distribution as penalized likelihood, we show how the unbalance can be explained as a direct consequence of the cost functions involved in estimating the partition. In light of our findings, we propose a novel Bayesian estimator of the clustering configuration. The proposed estimator is equivalent to a post-processing procedure that reduces the number of sparsely-populated clusters and enhances interpretability. The procedure takes the form of entropy-regularization of the Bayesian estimate. While being computationally convenient with respect to alternative strategies, it is also theoretically justified as a correction to the Bayesian loss function used for point estimation and, as such, can be applied to any posterior distribution of clusters, regardless of the specific model used.

Traffic simulation software is used by transportation researchers and engineers to design and evaluate changes to roadways. These simulators are driven by models of microscopic driver behavior from which macroscopic measures like flow and congestion can be derived. Many models are designed for a subset of possible traffic scenarios and roadway configurations, while others have no explicit constraints on their application. Work zones (WZs) are one scenario for which no model to date has reproduced realistic driving behavior. This makes it difficult to optimize for safety and other metrics when designing a WZ. The Federal Highway Administration commissioned the USDOT Volpe Center to develop a car-following (CF) model for use in microscopic simulators that can capture and reproduce driver behavior accurately within and outside of WZs. Volpe also performed a naturalistic driving study to collect telematics data from vehicles driven on roads with WZs for use in model calibration. During model development, Volpe researchers observed difficulties in calibrating their model, leaving them to question whether there existed flaws in their model, in the data, or in the procedure used to calibrate the model using the data. In this thesis, I use Bayesian methods for data analysis and parameter estimation to explore and, where possible, address these questions. First, I use Bayesian inference to measure the sufficiency of the size of the data set. Second, I compare the procedure and results of the genetic algorithm based calibration performed by the Volpe researchers with those of Bayesian calibration. Third, I explore the benefits of modeling CF hierarchically. Finally, I apply what was learned in the first three phases using an established CF model, Wiedemann 99, to the probabilistic modeling of the Volpe model. Validation is performed using information criteria as an estimate of predictive accuracy.

In this paper, we introduce and analyze a variant of the Thompson sampling (TS) algorithm for contextual bandits. At each round, traditional TS requires samples from the current posterior distribution, which is usually intractable. To circumvent this issue, approximate inference techniques can be used and provide samples with distribution close to the posteriors. However, current approximate techniques yield to either poor estimation (Laplace approximation) or can be computationally expensive (MCMC methods, Ensemble sampling...). In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, Varational Inference Thompson sampling VITS, based on Gaussian Variational Inference. This scheme provides powerful posterior approximations which are easy to sample from, and is computationally efficient, making it an ideal choice for TS. In addition, we show that VITS achieves a sub-linear regret bound of the same order in the dimension and number of round as traditional TS for linear contextual bandit. Finally, we demonstrate experimentally the effectiveness of VITS on both synthetic and real world datasets.

Large offline learning-based models have enabled robots to successfully interact with objects for a wide variety of tasks. However, these models rely on fairly consistent structured environments. For more unstructured environments, an online learning component is necessary to gather and estimate information about objects in the environment in order to successfully interact with them. Unfortunately, online learning methods like Bayesian non-parametric models struggle with changes in the environment, which is often the desired outcome of interaction-based tasks. We propose using an object-centric representation for interactive online learning. This representation is generated by transforming the robot's actions into the object's coordinate frame. We demonstrate how switching to this task-relevant space improves our ability to reason with the training data collected online, enabling scalable online learning of robot-object interactions. We showcase our method by successfully navigating a manipulator arm through an environment with multiple unknown objects without violating interaction-based constraints.