Application for semantic segmentation models in areas such as autonomous vehicles and human computer interaction require real-time predictive capabilities. The challenges of addressing real-time application is amplified by the need to operate on resource constrained hardware. Whilst development of real-time methods for these platforms has increased, these models are unable to sufficiently reason about uncertainty present when applied on embedded real-time systems. This paper addresses this by combining deep feature extraction from pre-trained models with Bayesian regression and moment propagation for uncertainty aware predictions. We demonstrate how the proposed method can yield meaningful epistemic uncertainty on embedded hardware in real-time whilst maintaining predictive performance.

The prediction of stochastic dynamical systems and the capture of dynamical behaviors are profound problems. In this article, we propose a data-driven framework combining Reservoir Computing and Normalizing Flow to study this issue, which mimics error modeling to improve traditional Reservoir Computing performance and integrates the virtues of both approaches. With few assumptions about the underlying stochastic dynamical systems, this model-free method successfully predicts the long-term evolution of stochastic dynamical systems and replicates dynamical behaviors. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed framework in several experiments, including the stochastic Van der Pal oscillator, El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation simplified model, and stochastic Lorenz system. These experiments consist of Markov/non-Markov and stationary/non-stationary stochastic processes which are defined by linear/nonlinear stochastic differential equations or stochastic delay differential equations. Additionally, we explore the noise-induced tipping phenomenon, relaxation oscillation, stochastic mixed-mode oscillation, and replication of the strange attractor.

The utilization of model checking has been suggested as a formal verification technique for analyzing critical systems. However, the primary challenge in applying to complex systems is state space explosion problem. To address this issue, bisimulation minimization has emerged as a prominent method for reducing the number of states in a labeled transition system, aiming to overcome the difficulties associated with the state space explosion problem. In the case of systems exhibiting stochastic behaviors, probabilistic bisimulation is employed to minimize a given model, obtaining its equivalent form with fewer states. Recently, various techniques have been introduced to decrease the time complexity of the iterative methods used to compute probabilistic bisimulation for stochastic systems that display nondeterministic behaviors. In this paper, we propose a new technique to partition the state space of a given probabilistic model to its bisimulation classes. This technique uses the PRISM program of a given model and constructs some small versions of the model to train a classifier. It then applies machine learning classification techniques to approximate the related partition. The resulting partition is used as an initial one for the standard bisimulation technique in order to reduce the running time of the method. The experimental results show that the approach can decrease significantly the running time compared to state-of-the-art tools.

We consider a general optimization problem of minimizing a composite objective functional defined over a class of probability distributions. The objective is composed of two functionals: one is assumed to possess the variational representation and the other is expressed in terms of the expectation operator of a possibly nonsmooth convex regularizer function. Such a regularized distributional optimization problem widely appears in machine learning and statistics, such as proximal Monte-Carlo sampling, Bayesian inference and generative modeling, for regularized estimation and generation. We propose a novel method, dubbed as Moreau-Yoshida Variational Transport (MYVT), for solving the regularized distributional optimization problem. First, as the name suggests, our method employs the Moreau-Yoshida envelope for a smooth approximation of the nonsmooth function in the objective. Second, we reformulate the approximate problem as a concave-convex saddle point problem by leveraging the variational representation, and then develope an efficient primal-dual algorithm to approximate the saddle point. Furthermore, we provide theoretical analyses and report experimental results to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

The practical utility of causality in decision-making is widespread and brought about by the intertwining of causal discovery and causal inference. Nevertheless, a notable gap exists in the evaluation of causal discovery methods, where insufficient emphasis is placed on downstream inference. To address this gap, we evaluate seven established baseline causal discovery methods including a newly proposed method based on GFlowNets, on the downstream task of treatment effect estimation. Through the implementation of a distribution-level evaluation, we offer valuable and unique insights into the efficacy of these causal discovery methods for treatment effect estimation, considering both synthetic and real-world scenarios, as well as low-data scenarios. The results of our study demonstrate that some of the algorithms studied are able to effectively capture a wide range of useful and diverse ATE modes, while some tend to learn many low-probability modes which impacts the (unrelaxed) recall and precision.

We consider the problem of learning a set of direct causes of a target variable from an observational joint distribution. Learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that represent the causal structure is a fundamental problem in science. Several results are known when the full DAG is identifiable from the distribution, such as assuming a nonlinear Gaussian data-generating process. Often, we are only interested in identifying the direct causes of one target variable (local causal structure), not the full DAG. In this paper, we discuss different assumptions for the data-generating process of the target variable under which the set of direct causes is identifiable from the distribution. While doing so, we put essentially no assumptions on the variables other than the target variable. In addition to the novel identifiability results, we provide two practical algorithms for estimating the direct causes from a finite random sample and demonstrate their effectiveness on several benchmark datasets. We apply this framework to learn direct causes of the reduction in fertility rates in different countries.

Neuro-symbolic integration aims at harnessing the power of symbolic knowledge representation combined with the learning capabilities of deep neural networks. In particular, Logic Tensor Networks (LTNs) allow to incorporate background knowledge in the form of logical axioms by grounding a first order logic language as differentiable operations between real tensors. Yet, few studies have investigated the potential benefits of this approach to improve zero-shot learning (ZSL) classification. In this study, we present the Fuzzy Logic Visual Network (FLVN) that formulates the task of learning a visual-semantic embedding space within a neuro-symbolic LTN framework. FLVN incorporates prior knowledge in the form of class hierarchies (classes and macro-classes) along with robust high-level inductive biases. The latter allow, for instance, to handle exceptions in class-level attributes, and to enforce similarity between images of the same class, preventing premature overfitting to seen classes and improving overall performance. FLVN reaches state of the art performance on the Generalized ZSL (GZSL) benchmarks AWA2 and CUB, improving by 1.3% and 3%, respectively. Overall, it achieves competitive performance to recent ZSL methods with less computational overhead. FLVN is available at https://gitlab.com/grains2/flvn.

Over the past decades, hemodynamics simulators have steadily evolved and have become tools of choice for studying cardiovascular systems in-silico. While such tools are routinely used to simulate whole-body hemodynamics from physiological parameters, solving the corresponding inverse problem of mapping waveforms back to plausible physiological parameters remains both promising and challenging. Motivated by advances in simulation-based inference (SBI), we cast this inverse problem as statistical inference. In contrast to alternative approaches, SBI provides \textit{posterior distributions} for the parameters of interest, providing a \textit{multi-dimensional} representation of uncertainty for \textit{individual} measurements. We showcase this ability by performing an in-silico uncertainty analysis of five biomarkers of clinical interest comparing several measurement modalities. Beyond the corroboration of known facts, such as the feasibility of estimating heart rate, our study highlights the potential of estimating new biomarkers from standard-of-care measurements. SBI reveals practically relevant findings that cannot be captured by standard sensitivity analyses, such as the existence of sub-populations for which parameter estimation exhibits distinct uncertainty regimes. Finally, we study the gap between in-vivo and in-silico with the MIMIC-III waveform database and critically discuss how cardiovascular simulations can inform real-world data analysis.

As machine learning (ML) systems increasingly permeate high-stakes settings such as healthcare, transportation, military, and national security, concerns regarding their reliability have emerged. Despite notable progress, the performance of these systems can significantly diminish due to adversarial attacks or environmental changes, leading to overconfident predictions, failures to detect input faults, and an inability to generalize in unexpected scenarios. This paper proposes a holistic assessment methodology for the reliability of ML systems. Our framework evaluates five key properties: in-distribution accuracy, distribution-shift robustness, adversarial robustness, calibration, and out-of-distribution detection. A reliability score is also introduced and used to assess the overall system reliability. To provide insights into the performance of different algorithmic approaches, we identify and categorize state-of-the-art techniques, then evaluate a selection on real-world tasks using our proposed reliability metrics and reliability score. Our analysis of over 500 models reveals that designing for one metric does not necessarily constrain others but certain algorithmic techniques can improve reliability across multiple metrics simultaneously. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of ML reliability and provides a roadmap for future research and development.

Symmetry plays a central role in the sciences, machine learning, and statistics. For situations in which data are known to obey a symmetry, a multitude of methods that exploit symmetry have been developed. Statistical tests for the presence or absence of general group symmetry, however, are largely non-existent. This work formulates non-parametric hypothesis tests, based on a single independent and identically distributed sample, for distributional symmetry under a specified group. We provide a general formulation of tests for symmetry that apply to two broad settings. The first setting tests for the invariance of a marginal or joint distribution under the action of a compact group. Here, an asymptotically unbiased test only requires a computable metric on the space of probability distributions and the ability to sample uniformly random group elements. Building on this, we propose an easy-to-implement conditional Monte Carlo test and prove that it achieves exact $p$-values with finitely many observations and Monte Carlo samples. The second setting tests for the invariance or equivariance of a conditional distribution under the action of a locally compact group. We show that the test for conditional invariance or equivariance can be formulated as particular tests of conditional independence. We implement these tests from both settings using kernel methods and study them empirically on synthetic data. Finally, we apply them to testing for symmetry in geomagnetic satellite data and in two problems from high-energy particle physics.