We consider the problem of learning a set of direct causes of a target variable from an observational joint distribution. Learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that represent the causal structure is a fundamental problem in science. Several results are known when the full DAG is identifiable from the distribution, such as assuming a nonlinear Gaussian data-generating process. Often, we are only interested in identifying the direct causes of one target variable (local causal structure), not the full DAG. In this paper, we discuss different assumptions for the data-generating process of the target variable under which the set of direct causes is identifiable from the distribution. While doing so, we put essentially no assumptions on the variables other than the target variable. In addition to the novel identifiability results, we provide two practical algorithms for estimating the direct causes from a finite random sample and demonstrate their effectiveness on several benchmark datasets. We apply this framework to learn direct causes of the reduction in fertility rates in different countries.

Neuro-symbolic integration aims at harnessing the power of symbolic knowledge representation combined with the learning capabilities of deep neural networks. In particular, Logic Tensor Networks (LTNs) allow to incorporate background knowledge in the form of logical axioms by grounding a first order logic language as differentiable operations between real tensors. Yet, few studies have investigated the potential benefits of this approach to improve zero-shot learning (ZSL) classification. In this study, we present the Fuzzy Logic Visual Network (FLVN) that formulates the task of learning a visual-semantic embedding space within a neuro-symbolic LTN framework. FLVN incorporates prior knowledge in the form of class hierarchies (classes and macro-classes) along with robust high-level inductive biases. The latter allow, for instance, to handle exceptions in class-level attributes, and to enforce similarity between images of the same class, preventing premature overfitting to seen classes and improving overall performance. FLVN reaches state of the art performance on the Generalized ZSL (GZSL) benchmarks AWA2 and CUB, improving by 1.3% and 3%, respectively. Overall, it achieves competitive performance to recent ZSL methods with less computational overhead. FLVN is available at https://gitlab.com/grains2/flvn.

Over the past decades, hemodynamics simulators have steadily evolved and have become tools of choice for studying cardiovascular systems in-silico. While such tools are routinely used to simulate whole-body hemodynamics from physiological parameters, solving the corresponding inverse problem of mapping waveforms back to plausible physiological parameters remains both promising and challenging. Motivated by advances in simulation-based inference (SBI), we cast this inverse problem as statistical inference. In contrast to alternative approaches, SBI provides \textit{posterior distributions} for the parameters of interest, providing a \textit{multi-dimensional} representation of uncertainty for \textit{individual} measurements. We showcase this ability by performing an in-silico uncertainty analysis of five biomarkers of clinical interest comparing several measurement modalities. Beyond the corroboration of known facts, such as the feasibility of estimating heart rate, our study highlights the potential of estimating new biomarkers from standard-of-care measurements. SBI reveals practically relevant findings that cannot be captured by standard sensitivity analyses, such as the existence of sub-populations for which parameter estimation exhibits distinct uncertainty regimes. Finally, we study the gap between in-vivo and in-silico with the MIMIC-III waveform database and critically discuss how cardiovascular simulations can inform real-world data analysis.

As machine learning (ML) systems increasingly permeate high-stakes settings such as healthcare, transportation, military, and national security, concerns regarding their reliability have emerged. Despite notable progress, the performance of these systems can significantly diminish due to adversarial attacks or environmental changes, leading to overconfident predictions, failures to detect input faults, and an inability to generalize in unexpected scenarios. This paper proposes a holistic assessment methodology for the reliability of ML systems. Our framework evaluates five key properties: in-distribution accuracy, distribution-shift robustness, adversarial robustness, calibration, and out-of-distribution detection. A reliability score is also introduced and used to assess the overall system reliability. To provide insights into the performance of different algorithmic approaches, we identify and categorize state-of-the-art techniques, then evaluate a selection on real-world tasks using our proposed reliability metrics and reliability score. Our analysis of over 500 models reveals that designing for one metric does not necessarily constrain others but certain algorithmic techniques can improve reliability across multiple metrics simultaneously. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of ML reliability and provides a roadmap for future research and development.

Symmetry plays a central role in the sciences, machine learning, and statistics. For situations in which data are known to obey a symmetry, a multitude of methods that exploit symmetry have been developed. Statistical tests for the presence or absence of general group symmetry, however, are largely non-existent. This work formulates non-parametric hypothesis tests, based on a single independent and identically distributed sample, for distributional symmetry under a specified group. We provide a general formulation of tests for symmetry that apply to two broad settings. The first setting tests for the invariance of a marginal or joint distribution under the action of a compact group. Here, an asymptotically unbiased test only requires a computable metric on the space of probability distributions and the ability to sample uniformly random group elements. Building on this, we propose an easy-to-implement conditional Monte Carlo test and prove that it achieves exact $p$-values with finitely many observations and Monte Carlo samples. The second setting tests for the invariance or equivariance of a conditional distribution under the action of a locally compact group. We show that the test for conditional invariance or equivariance can be formulated as particular tests of conditional independence. We implement these tests from both settings using kernel methods and study them empirically on synthetic data. Finally, we apply them to testing for symmetry in geomagnetic satellite data and in two problems from high-energy particle physics.

Monte Carlo methods represent a cornerstone of computer science. They allow to sample high dimensional distribution functions in an efficient way. In this paper we consider the extension of Automatic Differentiation (AD) techniques to Monte Carlo process, addressing the problem of obtaining derivatives (and in general, the Taylor series) of expectation values. Borrowing ideas from the lattice field theory community, we examine two approaches. One is based on reweighting while the other represents an extension of the Hamiltonian approach typically used by the Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) and similar algorithms. We show that the Hamiltonian approach can be understood as a change of variables of the reweighting approach, resulting in much reduced variances of the coefficients of the Taylor series. This work opens the door to find other variance reduction techniques for derivatives of expectation values.

Proximal nested sampling was introduced recently to open up Bayesian model selection for high-dimensional problems such as computational imaging. The framework is suitable for models with a log-convex likelihood, which are ubiquitous in the imaging sciences. The purpose of this article is two-fold. First, we review proximal nested sampling in a pedagogical manner in an attempt to elucidate the framework for physical scientists. Second, we show how proximal nested sampling can be extended in an empirical Bayes setting to support data-driven priors, such as deep neural networks learned from training data.

Recent advances of powerful Language Models have allowed Natural Language Generation (NLG) to emerge as an important technology that can not only perform traditional tasks like summarisation or translation, but also serve as a natural language interface to a variety of applications. As such, it is crucial that NLG systems are trustworthy and reliable, for example by indicating when they are likely to be wrong; and supporting multiple views, backgrounds and writing styles -- reflecting diverse human sub-populations. In this paper, we argue that a principled treatment of uncertainty can assist in creating systems and evaluation protocols better aligned with these goals. We first present the fundamental theory, frameworks and vocabulary required to represent uncertainty. We then characterise the main sources of uncertainty in NLG from a linguistic perspective, and propose a two-dimensional taxonomy that is more informative and faithful than the popular aleatoric/epistemic dichotomy. Finally, we move from theory to applications and highlight exciting research directions that exploit uncertainty to power decoding, controllable generation, self-assessment, selective answering, active learning and more.

The famous aphorism of George Box states: "all models are wrong, but some are useful" [1]. It is the task of statisticians and data analysts to find a model which is most useful for a given problem. The build, compute, critique and repeat cycle [2], also known as Box's loop [3], is an iterative approach for finding the most useful model. Any efforts in shortening this design cycle increase the chances of developing more useful models, which in turn might yield more reliable predictions, more profitable returns or more efficient operations for the problem at hand. In this paper we choose to adopt the Bayesian formalism and therefore we will specify all tasks in Box's loop as principled probabilistic inference tasks. In addition to the well-known parameter and state inference tasks, the critique step in the design cycle is also phrased as an inference task, known as Bayesian model comparison, which automatically embodies Occam's razor [4, Ch. 28.1]. Opposed to just selecting a single model in the critique step, for different models we better quantify our confidence about which model is best, especially when data is limited [5, Ch. 18.5.1]. The uncertainty arising from prior beliefs p(m) over a set of models m and limited observations can be naturally included through the use of Bayes' theorem

Lack of diversity in data collection has caused significant failures in machine learning (ML) applications. While ML developers perform post-collection interventions, these are time intensive and rarely comprehensive. Thus, new methods to track & manage data collection, iteration, and model training are necessary for evaluating whether datasets reflect real world variability. We present designing data, an iterative approach to data collection connecting HCI concepts with ML techniques. Our process includes (1) Pre-Collection Planning, to reflexively prompt and document expected data distributions; (2) Collection Monitoring, to systematically encourage sampling diversity; and (3) Data Familiarity, to identify samples that are unfamiliar to a model using density estimation. We apply designing data to a data collection and modeling task. We find models trained on ''designed'' datasets generalize better across intersectional groups than those trained on similarly sized but less targeted datasets, and that data familiarity is effective for debugging datasets.