This paper studies the performance of the spectral method in the estimation and uncertainty quantification of the unobserved preference scores of compared entities in a very general and more realistic setup in which the comparison graph consists of hyper-edges of possible heterogeneous sizes and the number of comparisons can be as low as one for a given hyper-edge. Such a setting is pervasive in real applications, circumventing the need to specify the graph randomness and the restrictive homogeneous sampling assumption imposed in the commonly-used Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) or Plackett-Luce (PL) models. Furthermore, in the scenarios when the BTL or PL models are appropriate, we unravel the relationship between the spectral estimator and the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE). We discover that a two-step spectral method, where we apply the optimal weighting estimated from the equal weighting vanilla spectral method, can achieve the same asymptotic efficiency as the MLE. Given the asymptotic distributions of the estimated preference scores, we also introduce a comprehensive framework to carry out both one-sample and two-sample ranking inferences, applicable to both fixed and random graph settings. It is noteworthy that it is the first time effective two-sample rank testing methods are proposed. Finally, we substantiate our findings via comprehensive numerical simulations and subsequently apply our developed methodologies to perform statistical inferences on statistics journals and movie rankings.

We investigate the challenging task of learning causal structure in the presence of latent variables, including locating latent variables and determining their quantity, and identifying causal relationships among both latent and observed variables. To address this, we propose a Generalized Independent Noise (GIN) condition for linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models that incorporate latent variables, which establishes the independence between a linear combination of certain measured variables and some other measured variables. Specifically, for two observed random vectors $\bf{Y}$ and $\bf{Z}$, GIN holds if and only if $\omega^{\intercal}\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$ are independent, where $\omega$ is a non-zero parameter vector determined by the cross-covariance between $\mathbf{Y}$ and $\mathbf{Z}$. We then give necessary and sufficient graphical criteria of the GIN condition in linear non-Gaussian acyclic causal models. Roughly speaking, GIN implies the existence of an exogenous set $\mathcal{S}$ relative to the parent set of $\mathbf{Y}$ (w.r.t. the causal ordering), such that $\mathcal{S}$ d-separates $\mathbf{Y}$ from $\mathbf{Z}$. Interestingly, we find that the independent noise condition (i.e., if there is no confounder, causes are independent of the residual derived from regressing the effect on the causes) can be seen as a special case of GIN. With such a connection between GIN and latent causal structures, we further leverage the proposed GIN condition, together with a well-designed search procedure, to efficiently estimate Linear, Non-Gaussian Latent Hierarchical Models (LiNGLaHs), where latent confounders may also be causally related and may even follow a hierarchical structure. We show that the underlying causal structure of a LiNGLaH is identifiable in light of GIN conditions under mild assumptions. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

This paper presents an ensemble data assimilation method using the pseudo ensembles generated by denoising diffusion probabilistic model. Since the model is trained against noisy and sparse observation data, this model can produce divergent ensembles close to observations. Thanks to the variance in generated ensembles, our proposed method displays better performance than the well-established ensemble data assimilation method when the simulation model is imperfect.

The Gaussian-radial-basis function neural network (GRBFNN) has been a popular choice for interpolation and classification. However, it is computationally intensive when the dimension of the input vector is high. To address this issue, we propose a new feedforward network - Separable Gaussian Neural Network (SGNN) by taking advantage of the separable property of Gaussian functions, which splits input data into multiple columns and sequentially feeds them into parallel layers formed by uni-variate Gaussian functions. This structure reduces the number of neurons from O(N^d) of GRBFNN to O(dN), which exponentially improves the computational speed of SGNN and makes it scale linearly as the input dimension increases. In addition, SGNN can preserve the dominant subspace of the Hessian matrix of GRBFNN in gradient descent training, leading to a similar level of accuracy to GRBFNN. It is experimentally demonstrated that SGNN can achieve 100 times speedup with a similar level of accuracy over GRBFNN on tri-variate function approximations. The SGNN also has better trainability and is more tuning-friendly than DNNs with RuLU and Sigmoid functions. For approximating functions with complex geometry, SGNN can lead to three orders of magnitude more accurate results than a RuLU-DNN with twice the number of layers and the number of neurons per layer.

Semantic communications are expected to accomplish various semantic tasks with relatively less spectrum resource by exploiting the semantic feature of source data. To simultaneously serve both the data transmission and semantic tasks, joint data compression and semantic analysis has become pivotal issue in semantic communications. This paper proposes a deep separate source-channel coding (DSSCC) framework for the joint task and data oriented semantic communications (JTD-SC) and utilizes the variational autoencoder approach to solve the rate-distortion problem with semantic distortion. First, by analyzing the Bayesian model of the DSSCC framework, we derive a novel rate-distortion optimization problem via the Bayesian inference approach for general data distributions and semantic tasks. Next, for a typical application of joint image transmission and classification, we combine the variational autoencoder approach with a forward adaption scheme to effectively extract image features and adaptively learn the density information of the obtained features. Finally, an iterative training algorithm is proposed to tackle the overfitting issue of deep learning models. Simulation results reveal that the proposed scheme achieves better coding gain as well as data recovery and classification performance in most scenarios, compared to the classical compression schemes and the emerging deep joint source-channel schemes.

Discovering causal relations among semantic factors is an emergent topic in representation learning. Most causal representation learning (CRL) methods are fully supervised, which is impractical due to costly labeling. To resolve this restriction, weakly supervised CRL methods were introduced. To evaluate CRL performance, four existing datasets, Pendulum, Flow, CelebA(BEARD) and CelebA(SMILE), are utilized. However, existing CRL datasets are limited to simple graphs with few generative factors. Thus we propose two new datasets with a larger number of diverse generative factors and more sophisticated causal graphs. In addition, current real datasets, CelebA(BEARD) and CelebA(SMILE), the originally proposed causal graphs are not aligned with the dataset distributions. Thus, we propose modifications to them.

We address the computational efficiency in solving the A-optimal Bayesian design of experiments problems for which the observational map is based on partial differential equations and, consequently, is computationally expensive to evaluate. A-optimality is a widely used and easy-to-interpret criterion for Bayesian experimental design. This criterion seeks the optimal experimental design by minimizing the expected conditional variance, which is also known as the expected posterior variance. This study presents a novel likelihood-free approach to the A-optimal experimental design that does not require sampling or integrating the Bayesian posterior distribution. The expected conditional variance is obtained via the variance of the conditional expectation using the law of total variance, and we take advantage of the orthogonal projection property to approximate the conditional expectation. We derive an asymptotic error estimation for the proposed estimator of the expected conditional variance and show that the intractability of the posterior distribution does not affect the performance of our approach. We use an artificial neural network (ANN) to approximate the nonlinear conditional expectation in the implementation of our method. We then extend our approach for dealing with the case that the domain of experimental design parameters is continuous by integrating the training process of the ANN into minimizing the expected conditional variance. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that our method greatly reduces the number of observation model evaluations compared with widely used importance sampling-based approaches. This reduction is crucial, considering the high computational cost of the observational models. Code is available at https://github.com/vinh-tr-hoang/DOEviaPACE.

Traffic management systems play a vital role in ensuring safe and efficient transportation on roads. However, the use of advanced technologies in traffic management systems has introduced new safety challenges. Therefore, it is important to ensure the safety of these systems to prevent accidents and minimize their impact on road users. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of the literature on safety in traffic management systems. Specifically, we discuss the different safety issues that arise in traffic management systems, the current state of research on safety in these systems, and the techniques and methods proposed to ensure the safety of these systems. We also identify the limitations of the existing research and suggest future research directions.

Despite the strong predictive performance of deep learning models for traffic prediction, their widespread deployment in real-world intelligent transportation systems has been restrained by a lack of interpretability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods provide an approach to induce probabilistic reasoning, improve decision-making and enhance model deployment potential. To gain a comprehensive picture of the usefulness of existing UQ methods for traffic prediction and the relation between obtained uncertainties and city-wide traffic dynamics, we investigate their application to a large-scale image-based traffic dataset spanning multiple cities and time periods. We compare two epistemic and two aleatoric UQ methods on both temporal and spatio-temporal transfer tasks, and find that meaningful uncertainty estimates can be recovered. We further demonstrate how uncertainty estimates can be employed for unsupervised outlier detection on changes in city traffic dynamics. We find that our approach can capture both temporal and spatial effects on traffic behaviour in a representative case study for the city of Moscow. Our work presents a further step towards boosting uncertainty awareness in traffic prediction tasks, and aims to highlight the value contribution of UQ methods to a better understanding of city traffic dynamics.

The unpredictability and volatility of the stock market render it challenging to make a substantial profit using any generalized scheme. Many previous studies tried different techniques to build a machine learning model, which can make a significant profit in the US stock market by performing live trading. However, very few studies have focused on the importance of finding the best features for a particular period for trading. Our top approach used the performance to narrow down the features from a total of 148 to about 30. Furthermore, the top 25 features were dynamically selected before each time training our machine learning model. It uses ensemble learning with four classifiers: Gaussian Naive Bayes, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression with L1 regularization and Stochastic Gradient Descent, to decide whether to go long or short on a particular stock. Our best model performed daily trade between July 2011 and January 2019, generating 54.35% profit. Finally, our work showcased that mixtures of weighted classifiers perform better than any individual predictor about making trading decisions in the stock market.