We consider the problem of optimising an expensive-to-evaluate grey-box objective function, within a finite budget, where known side-information exists in the form of the causal structure between the design variables. Standard black-box optimisation ignores the causal structure, often making it inefficient and expensive. The few existing methods that consider the causal structure are myopic and do not fully accommodate the observation-intervention trade-off that emerges when estimating causal effects. In this paper, we show that the observation-intervention trade-off can be formulated as a non-myopic optimal stopping problem which permits an efficient solution. We give theoretical results detailing the structure of the optimal stopping times and demonstrate the generality of our approach by showing that it can be integrated with existing causal Bayesian optimisation algorithms. Experimental results show that our formulation can enhance existing algorithms on real and synthetic benchmarks.

Multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs) are versatile probabilistic tools used to model various real-life phenomena: earthquakes, operations on stock markets, neuronal activity, virus propagation and many others. In this paper, we focus on MHPs with exponential decay kernels and estimate connectivity graphs, which represent the Granger causal relations between their components. We approach this inference problem by proposing an optimization criterion and model selection algorithm based on the minimum message length (MML) principle. MML compares Granger causal models using the Occam's razor principle in the following way: even when models have a comparable goodness-of-fit to the observed data, the one generating the most concise explanation of the data is preferred. While most of the state-of-art methods using lasso-type penalization tend to overfitting in scenarios with short time horizons, the proposed MML-based method achieves high F1 scores in these settings. We conduct a numerical study comparing the proposed algorithm to other related classical and state-of-art methods, where we achieve the highest F1 scores in specific sparse graph settings. We illustrate the proposed method also on G7 sovereign bond data and obtain causal connections, which are in agreement with the expert knowledge available in the literature.

Many decision problems cannot be solved exactly and use several estimation algorithms that assign scores to the different available options. The estimation errors can have various correlations, from low (e.g. between two very different approaches) to high (e.g. when using a given algorithm with different hyperparameters). Most aggregation rules would suffer from this diversity of correlations. In this article, we propose different aggregation rules that take correlations into account, and we compare them to naive rules in various experiments based on synthetic data. Our results show that when sufficient information is known about the correlations between errors, a maximum likelihood aggregation should be preferred. Otherwise, typically with limited training data, we recommend a method that we call Embedded Voting (EV).

Causal probabilistic graph-based models have gained widespread utility, enabling the modeling of cause-and-effect relationships across diverse domains. With their rising adoption in new areas, such as automotive system safety and machine learning, the need for an integrated lifecycle framework akin to DevOps and MLOps has emerged. Currently, a process reference for organizations interested in employing causal engineering is missing. To address this gap and foster widespread industrial adoption, we propose CausalOps, a novel lifecycle framework for causal model development and application. By defining key entities, dependencies, and intermediate artifacts generated during causal engineering, we establish a consistent vocabulary and workflow model. This work contextualizes causal model usage across different stages and stakeholders, outlining a holistic view of creating and maintaining them. CausalOps' aim is to drive the adoption of causal methods in practical applications within interested organizations and the causality community.

Learning causal effects from data is a fundamental and well-studied problem across science, especially when the cause-effect relationship is static in nature. However, causal effect is less explored when there are dynamical dependencies, i.e., when dependencies exist between entities across time. Identifying dynamic causal effects from time-series observations is computationally expensive when compared to the static scenario. We demonstrate that the computational complexity of recovering the causation structure for the vector auto-regressive (VAR) model is $O(Tn^3N^2)$, where $n$ is the number of nodes, $T$ is the number of samples, and $N$ is the largest time-lag in the dependency between entities. We report a method, with a reduced complexity of $O(Tn^3 \log N)$, to recover the causation structure to obtain frequency-domain (FD) representations of time-series. Since FFT accumulates all the time dependencies on every frequency, causal inference can be performed efficiently by considering the state variables as random variables at any given frequency. We additionally show that, for systems with interactions that are LTI, do-calculus machinery can be realized in the FD resulting in versions of the classical single-door (with cycles), front and backdoor criteria. We demonstrate, for a large class of problems, graph reconstruction using multivariate Wiener projections results in a significant computational advantage with $O(n)$ complexity over reconstruction algorithms such as the PC algorithm which has $O(n^q)$ complexity, where $q$ is the maximum neighborhood size. This advantage accrues due to some remarkable properties of the phase response of the frequency-dependent Wiener coefficients which is not present in any time-domain approach.

A central problem in unsupervised deep learning is how to find useful representations of high-dimensional data, sometimes called "disentanglement". Most approaches are heuristic and lack a proper theoretical foundation. In linear representation learning, independent component analysis (ICA) has been successful in many applications areas, and it is principled, i.e., based on a well-defined probabilistic model. However, extension of ICA to the nonlinear case has been problematic due to the lack of identifiability, i.e., uniqueness of the representation. Recently, nonlinear extensions that utilize temporal structure or some auxiliary information have been proposed. Such models are in fact identifiable, and consequently, an increasing number of algorithms have been developed. In particular, some self-supervised algorithms can be shown to estimate nonlinear ICA, even though they have initially been proposed from heuristic perspectives. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of nonlinear ICA theory and algorithms.

Open Radio Access Network systems, with their virtualized base stations (vBSs), offer operators the benefits of increased flexibility, reduced costs, vendor diversity, and interoperability. Optimizing the allocation of resources in a vBS is challenging since it requires knowledge of the environment, (i.e., "external'' information), such as traffic demands and channel quality, which is difficult to acquire precisely over short intervals of a few seconds. To tackle this problem, we propose an online learning algorithm that balances the effective throughput and vBS energy consumption, even under unforeseeable and "challenging'' environments; for instance, non-stationary or adversarial traffic demands. We also develop a meta-learning scheme, which leverages the power of other algorithmic approaches, tailored for more "easy'' environments, and dynamically chooses the best performing one, thus enhancing the overall system's versatility and effectiveness. We prove the proposed solutions achieve sub-linear regret, providing zero average optimality gap even in challenging environments. The performance of the algorithms is evaluated with real-world data and various trace-driven evaluations, indicating savings of up to 64.5% in the power consumption of a vBS compared with state-of-the-art benchmarks.

Ranking is a ubiquitous method for focusing the attention of human evaluators on a manageable subset of options. Its use ranges from surfacing potentially relevant products on an e-commerce site to prioritizing college applications for human review. While ranking can make human evaluation far more effective by focusing attention on the most promising options, we argue that it can introduce unfairness if the uncertainty of the underlying relevance model differs between groups of options. Unfortunately, such disparity in uncertainty appears widespread, since the relevance estimates for minority groups tend to have higher uncertainty due to a lack of data or appropriate features. To overcome this fairness issue, we propose Equal-Opportunity Ranking (EOR) as a new fairness criterion for ranking that provably corrects for the disparity in uncertainty between groups. Furthermore, we present a practical algorithm for computing EOR rankings in time $O(n \log(n))$ and prove its close approximation guarantee to the globally optimal solution. In a comprehensive empirical evaluation on synthetic data, a US Census dataset, and a real-world case study of Amazon search queries, we find that the algorithm reliably guarantees EOR fairness while providing effective rankings.

Federated Learning (FL) presents an innovative approach to privacy-preserving distributed machine learning and enables efficient crowd intelligence on a large scale. However, a significant challenge arises when coordinating FL with crowd intelligence which diverse client groups possess disparate objectives due to data heterogeneity or distinct tasks. To address this challenge, we propose the Federated cINN Clustering Algorithm (FCCA) to robustly cluster clients into different groups, avoiding mutual interference between clients with data heterogeneity, and thereby enhancing the performance of the global model. Specifically, FCCA utilizes a global encoder to transform each client's private data into multivariate Gaussian distributions. It then employs a generative model to learn encoded latent features through maximum likelihood estimation, which eases optimization and avoids mode collapse. Finally, the central server collects converged local models to approximate similarities between clients and thus partition them into distinct clusters. Extensive experimental results demonstrate FCCA's superiority over other state-of-the-art clustered federated learning algorithms, evaluated on various models and datasets. These results suggest that our approach has substantial potential to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of real-world federated learning tasks.

Binary regression models represent a popular model-based approach for binary classification. In the Bayesian framework, computational challenges in the form of the posterior distribution motivate still-ongoing fruitful research. Here, we focus on the computation of predictive probabilities in Bayesian probit models via expectation propagation (EP). Leveraging more general results in recent literature, we show that such predictive probabilities admit a closed-form expression. Improvements over state-of-the-art approaches are shown in a simulation study.