Training energy-based models (EBMs) with maximum likelihood estimation on high-dimensional data can be both challenging and time-consuming. As a result, there a noticeable gap in sample quality between EBMs and other generative frameworks like GANs and diffusion models. To close this gap, inspired by the recent efforts of learning EBMs by maximimizing diffusion recovery likelihood (DRL), we propose cooperative diffusion recovery likelihood (CDRL), an effective approach to tractably learn and sample from a series of EBMs defined on increasingly noisy versons of a dataset, paired with an initializer model for each EBM. At each noise level, the initializer model learns to amortize the sampling process of the EBM, and the two models are jointly estimated within a cooperative training framework. Samples from the initializer serve as starting points that are refined by a few sampling steps from the EBM. With the refined samples, the EBM is optimized by maximizing recovery likelihood, while the initializer is optimized by learning from the difference between the refined samples and the initial samples. We develop a new noise schedule and a variance reduction technique to further improve the sample quality. Combining these advances, we significantly boost the FID scores compared to existing EBM methods on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet 32x32, with a 2x speedup over DRL. In addition, we extend our method to compositional generation and image inpainting tasks, and showcase the compatibility of CDRL with classifier-free guidance for conditional generation, achieving similar trade-offs between sample quality and sample diversity as in diffusion models.

Supervised learning techniques typically assume training data originates from the target population. Yet, in reality, dataset shift frequently arises, which, if not adequately taken into account, may decrease the performance of their predictors. In this work, we propose a novel and flexible framework called DetectShift that quantifies and tests for multiple dataset shifts, encompassing shifts in the distributions of $(X, Y)$, $X$, $Y$, $X|Y$, and $Y|X$. DetectShift equips practitioners with insights into data shifts, facilitating the adaptation or retraining of predictors using both source and target data. This proves extremely valuable when labeled samples in the target domain are limited. The framework utilizes test statistics with the same nature to quantify the magnitude of the various shifts, making results more interpretable. It is versatile, suitable for regression and classification tasks, and accommodates diverse data forms - tabular, text, or image. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of DetectShift in detecting dataset shifts even in higher dimensions.

The paper presents the main characteristics and a preliminary implementation of a novel computational framework named CompLog. Inspired by probabilistic programming systems like ProbLog, CompLog builds upon the inferential mechanisms proposed by Simplicity Theory, relying on the computation of two Kolmogorov complexities (here implemented as min-path searches via ASP programs) rather than probabilistic inference. The proposed system enables users to compute ex-post and ex-ante measures of unexpectedness of a certain situation, mapping respectively to posterior and prior subjective probabilities. The computation is based on the specification of world and mental models by means of causal and descriptive relations between predicates weighted by complexity. The paper illustrates a few examples of application: generating relevant descriptions, and providing alternative approaches to disjunction and to negation.

A crucial design decision for any robot learning pipeline is the choice of policy representation: what type of model should be used to generate the next set of robot actions? Owing to the inherent multi-modal nature of many robotic tasks, combined with the recent successes in generative modeling, researchers have turned to state-of-the-art probabilistic models such as diffusion models for policy representation. In this work, we revisit the choice of energy-based models (EBM) as a policy class. We show that the prevailing folklore -- that energy models in high dimensional continuous spaces are impractical to train -- is false. We develop a practical training objective and algorithm for energy models which combines several key ingredients: (i) ranking noise contrastive estimation (R-NCE), (ii) learnable negative samplers, and (iii) non-adversarial joint training. We prove that our proposed objective function is asymptotically consistent and quantify its limiting variance. On the other hand, we show that the Implicit Behavior Cloning (IBC) objective is actually biased even at the population level, providing a mathematical explanation for the poor performance of IBC trained energy policies in several independent follow-up works. We further extend our algorithm to learn a continuous stochastic process that bridges noise and data, modeling this process with a family of EBMs indexed by scale variable. In doing so, we demonstrate that the core idea behind recent progress in generative modeling is actually compatible with EBMs. Altogether, our proposed training algorithms enable us to train energy-based models as policies which compete with -- and even outperform -- diffusion models and other state-of-the-art approaches in several challenging multi-modal benchmarks: obstacle avoidance path planning and contact-rich block pushing.

Whether and how data scientists, statisticians and modellers should be accountable for the AI systems they develop remains a controversial and highly debated topic, especially given the complexity of AI systems and the difficulties in comparing and synthesising competing claims arising from their deployment for data analysis. This paper proposes to address this issue by decreasing the opacity and heightening the accountability of decision making using AI systems, through the explicit acknowledgement of the statistical foundations that underpin their development and the ways in which these dictate how their results should be interpreted and acted upon by users. In turn, this enhances (1) the responsiveness of the models to feedback, (2) the quality and meaning of uncertainty on their outputs and (3) their transparency to evaluation. To exemplify this approach, we extend Posterior Belief Assessment to offer a route to belief ownership from complex and competing AI structures. We argue that this is a significant way to bring ethical considerations into mathematical reasoning, and to implement ethical AI in statistical practice. We demonstrate these ideas within the context of competing models used to advise the UK government on the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 during December 2021.

Causal discovery is a powerful technique for identifying causal relationships among variables in data. It has been widely used in various applications in software engineering. Causal discovery extensively involves conditional independence (CI) tests. Hence, its output quality highly depends on the performance of CI tests, which can often be unreliable in practice. Moreover, privacy concerns arise when excessive CI tests are performed. Despite the distinct nature between unreliable and excessive CI tests, this paper identifies a unified and principled approach to addressing both of them. Generally, CI statements, the outputs of CI tests, adhere to Pearl's axioms, which are a set of well-established integrity constraints on conditional independence. Hence, we can either detect erroneous CI statements if they violate Pearl's axioms or prune excessive CI statements if they are logically entailed by Pearl's axioms. Holistically, both problems boil down to reasoning about the consistency of CI statements under Pearl's axioms (referred to as CIR problem). We propose a runtime verification tool called CICheck, designed to harden causal discovery algorithms from reliability and privacy perspectives. CICheck employs a sound and decidable encoding scheme that translates CIR into SMT problems. To solve the CIR problem efficiently, CICheck introduces a four-stage decision procedure with three lightweight optimizations that actively prove or refute consistency, and only resort to costly SMT-based reasoning when necessary. Based on the decision procedure to CIR, CICheck includes two variants: ED-CICheck and ED-CICheck, which detect erroneous CI tests (to enhance reliability) and prune excessive CI tests (to enhance privacy), respectively. [abridged due to length limit]

While representation learning has been central to the rise of machine learning and artificial intelligence, a key problem remains in making the learnt representations meaningful. For this the typical approach is to regularize the learned representation through prior probability distributions. However such priors are usually unavailable or ad hoc. To deal with this, we propose a dynamics-constrained representation learning framework. Instead of using predefined probabilities, we restrict the latent representation to follow specific dynamics, which is a more natural constraint for representation learning in dynamical systems. Our belief stems from a fundamental observation in physics that though different systems can have different marginalized probability distributions, they typically obey the same dynamics, such as Newton's and Schrodinger's equations. We validate our framework for different systems including a real-world fluorescent DNA movie dataset. We show that our algorithm can uniquely identify an uncorrelated, isometric and meaningful latent representation.

We conduct a detailed investigation of tempered posteriors and uncover a number of crucial and previously undiscussed points. Contrary to previous results, we first show that for realistic models and datasets and the tightly controlled case of the Laplace approximation to the posterior, stochasticity does not in general improve test accuracy. The coldest temperature is often optimal. One might think that Bayesian models with some stochasticity can at least obtain improvements in terms of calibration. However, we show empirically that when gains are obtained this comes at the cost of degradation in test accuracy. We then discuss how targeting Frequentist metrics using Bayesian models provides a simple explanation of the need for a temperature parameter $\lambda$ in the optimization objective. Contrary to prior works, we finally show through a PAC-Bayesian analysis that the temperature $\lambda$ cannot be seen as simply fixing a misspecified prior or likelihood.

We study the finite-time behaviour of the popular temporal difference (TD) learning algorithm when combined with tail-averaging. We derive finite time bounds on the parameter error of the tail-averaged TD iterate under a step-size choice that does not require information about the eigenvalues of the matrix underlying the projected TD fixed point. Our analysis shows that tail-averaged TD converges at the optimal $O\left(1/t\right)$ rate, both in expectation and with high probability. In addition, our bounds exhibit a sharper rate of decay for the initial error (bias), which is an improvement over averaging all iterates. We also propose and analyse a variant of TD that incorporates regularisation. From analysis, we conclude that the regularised version of TD is useful for problems with ill-conditioned features.

A resampling scheme provides a way to switch low-weight particles for sequential Monte Carlo with higher-weight particles representing the objective distribution. The less the variance of the weight distribution is, the more concentrated the effective particles are, and the quicker and more accurate it is to approximate the hidden Markov model, especially for the nonlinear case. We propose a repetitive deterministic domain with median ergodicity for resampling and have achieved the lowest variances compared to the other resampling methods. As the size of the deterministic domain $M\ll N$ (the size of population), given a feasible size of particles, our algorithm is faster than the state of the art, which is verified by theoretical deduction and experiments of a hidden Markov model in both the linear and non-linear cases.