Uncertainty
The role of causality in explainable artificial intelligence
Carloni, Gianluca, Berti, Andrea, Colantonio, Sara
Causality and eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) have developed as separate fields in computer science, even though the underlying concepts of causation and explanation share common ancient roots. This is further enforced by the lack of review works jointly covering these two fields. In this paper, we investigate the literature to try to understand how and to what extent causality and XAI are intertwined. More precisely, we seek to uncover what kinds of relationships exist between the two concepts and how one can benefit from them, for instance, in building trust in AI systems. As a result, three main perspectives are identified. In the first one, the lack of causality is seen as one of the major limitations of current AI and XAI approaches, and the "optimal" form of explanations is investigated. The second is a pragmatic perspective and considers XAI as a tool to foster scientific exploration for causal inquiry, via the identification of pursue-worthy experimental manipulations. Finally, the third perspective supports the idea that causality is propaedeutic to XAI in three possible manners: exploiting concepts borrowed from causality to support or improve XAI, utilizing counterfactuals for explainability, and considering accessing a causal model as explaining itself. To complement our analysis, we also provide relevant software solutions used to automate causal tasks. We believe our work provides a unified view of the two fields of causality and XAI by highlighting potential domain bridges and uncovering possible limitations.
Outlier-Insensitive Kalman Filtering: Theory and Applications
Truzman, Shunit, Revach, Guy, Shlezinger, Nir, Klein, Itzik
State estimation of dynamical systems from noisy observations is a fundamental task in many applications. It is commonly addressed using the linear Kalman filter (KF), whose performance can significantly degrade in the presence of outliers in the observations, due to the sensitivity of its convex quadratic objective function. To mitigate such behavior, outlier detection algorithms can be applied. In this work, we propose a parameter-free algorithm which mitigates the harmful effect of outliers while requiring only a short iterative process of the standard update step of the KF. To that end, we model each potential outlier as a normal process with unknown variance and apply online estimation through either expectation maximization or alternating maximization algorithms. Simulations and field experiment evaluations demonstrate competitive performance of our method, showcasing its robustness to outliers in filtering scenarios compared to alternative algorithms.
Fair Causal Feature Selection
Ling, Zhaolong, Xu, Enqi, Zhou, Peng, Du, Liang, Yu, Kui, Wu, Xindong
Fair feature selection for classification decision tasks has recently garnered significant attention from researchers. However, existing fair feature selection algorithms fall short of providing a full explanation of the causal relationship between features and sensitive attributes, potentially impacting the accuracy of fair feature identification. To address this issue, we propose a Fair Causal Feature Selection algorithm, called FairCFS. Specifically, FairCFS constructs a localized causal graph that identifies the Markov blankets of class and sensitive variables, to block the transmission of sensitive information for selecting fair causal features. Extensive experiments on seven public real-world datasets validate that FairCFS has comparable accuracy compared to eight state-of-the-art feature selection algorithms, while presenting more superior fairness.
A Unifying Perspective on Non-Stationary Kernels for Deeper Gaussian Processes
Noack, Marcus M., Luo, Hengrui, Risser, Mark D.
The Gaussian process (GP) is a popular statistical technique for stochastic function approximation and uncertainty quantification from data. GPs have been adopted into the realm of machine learning in the last two decades because of their superior prediction abilities, especially in data-sparse scenarios, and their inherent ability to provide robust uncertainty estimates. Even so, their performance highly depends on intricate customizations of the core methodology, which often leads to dissatisfaction among practitioners when standard setups and off-the-shelf software tools are being deployed. Arguably the most important building block of a GP is the kernel function which assumes the role of a covariance operator. Stationary kernels of the Mat\'ern class are used in the vast majority of applied studies; poor prediction performance and unrealistic uncertainty quantification are often the consequences. Non-stationary kernels show improved performance but are rarely used due to their more complicated functional form and the associated effort and expertise needed to define and tune them optimally. In this perspective, we want to help ML practitioners make sense of some of the most common forms of non-stationarity for Gaussian processes. We show a variety of kernels in action using representative datasets, carefully study their properties, and compare their performances. Based on our findings, we propose a new kernel that combines some of the identified advantages of existing kernels.
Sum-of-Squares Relaxations for Information Theory and Variational Inference
We consider extensions of the Shannon relative entropy, referred to as $f$-divergences.Three classical related computational problems are typically associated with these divergences: (a) estimation from moments, (b) computing normalizing integrals, and (c) variational inference in probabilistic models. These problems are related to one another through convex duality, and for all them, there are many applications throughout data science, and we aim for computationally tractable approximation algorithms that preserve properties of the original problem such as potential convexity or monotonicity. In order to achieve this, we derive a sequence of convex relaxations for computing these divergences from non-centered covariance matrices associated with a given feature vector: starting from the typically non-tractable optimal lower-bound, we consider an additional relaxation based on ``sums-of-squares'', which is is now computable in polynomial time as a semidefinite program. We also provide computationally more efficient relaxations based on spectral information divergences from quantum information theory. For all of the tasks above, beyond proposing new relaxations, we derive tractable convex optimization algorithms, and we present illustrations on multivariate trigonometric polynomials and functions on the Boolean hypercube.
Causal Discovery and Prediction: Methods and Algorithms
We are not only observers but also actors of reality. Our capability to intervene and alter the course of some events in the space and time surrounding us is an essential component of how we build our model of the world. In this doctoral thesis we introduce a generic a-priori assessment of each possible intervention, in order to select the most cost-effective interventions only, and avoid unnecessary systematic experimentation on the real world. Based on this a-priori assessment, we propose an active learning algorithm that identifies the causal relations in any given causal model, using a least cost sequence of interventions. There are several novel aspects introduced by our algorithm. It is, in most case scenarios, able to discard many causal model candidates using relatively inexpensive interventions that only test one value of the intervened variables. Also, the number of interventions performed by the algorithm can be bounded by the number of causal model candidates. Hence, fewer initial candidates (or equivalently, more prior knowledge) lead to fewer interventions for causal discovery. Causality is intimately related to time, as causes appear to precede their effects. Cyclical causal processes are a very interesting case of causality in relation to time. In this doctoral thesis we introduce a formal analysis of time cyclical causal settings by defining a causal analog to the purely observational Dynamic Bayesian Networks, and provide a sound and complete algorithm for the identification of causal effects in the cyclic setting. We introduce the existence of two types of hidden confounder variables in this framework, which affect in substantially different ways the identification procedures, a distinction with no analog in either Dynamic Bayesian Networks or standard causal graphs.
Efficient Belief Road Map for Planning Under Uncertainty
Chen, Zhenyang, Yu, Hongzhe, Chen, Yongxin
Abstract-- Robotic systems, particularly in demanding environments like narrow corridors or disaster zones, often grapple with imperfect state estimation. Addressing this challenge requires a trajectory plan that not only navigates these restrictive spaces but also manages the inherent uncertainty of the system. We present a novel approach for graph-based belief space planning via the use of an efficient covariance control algorithm. By adaptively steering state statistics via output state feedback, we efficiently craft a belief roadmap characterized by nodes with controlled uncertainty and edges representing collision-free mean trajectories. The roadmap's structured design then paves the way for precise path searches that balance control costs and uncertainty considerations. Figure 1: A belief space graph depicting sampled state beliefs I.
LiDAR Data Synthesis with Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models
Nakashima, Kazuto, Kurazume, Ryo
Generative modeling of 3D LiDAR data is an emerging task with promising applications for autonomous mobile robots, such as scalable simulation, scene manipulation, and sparse-to-dense completion of LiDAR point clouds. Existing approaches have shown the feasibility of image-based LiDAR data generation using deep generative models while still struggling with the fidelity of generated data and training instability. In this work, we present R2DM, a novel generative model for LiDAR data that can generate diverse and high-fidelity 3D scene point clouds based on the image representation of range and reflectance intensity. Our method is based on the denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs), which have demonstrated impressive results among generative model frameworks and have been significantly progressing in recent years. To effectively train DDPMs on the LiDAR domain, we first conduct an in-depth analysis regarding data representation, training objective, and spatial inductive bias. Based on our designed model R2DM, we also introduce a flexible LiDAR completion pipeline using the powerful properties of DDPMs. We demonstrate that our method outperforms the baselines on the generation task of KITTI-360 and KITTI-Raw datasets and the upsampling task of KITTI-360 datasets. Our code and pre-trained weights will be available at https://github.com/kazuto1011/r2dm.
Human-Centered Autonomy for UAS Target Search
Ray, Hunter M., Laouar, Zakariya, Sunberg, Zachary, Ahmed, Nisar
Current methods of deploying robots that operate in dynamic, uncertain environments, such as Uncrewed Aerial Systems in search \& rescue missions, require nearly continuous human supervision for vehicle guidance and operation. These methods do not consider high-level mission context resulting in cumbersome manual operation or inefficient exhaustive search patterns. We present a human-centered autonomous framework that infers geospatial mission context through dynamic feature sets, which then guides a probabilistic target search planner. Operators provide a set of diverse inputs, including priority definition, spatial semantic information about ad-hoc geographical areas, and reference waypoints, which are probabilistically fused with geographical database information and condensed into a geospatial distribution representing an operator's preferences over an area. An online, POMDP-based planner, optimized for target searching, is augmented with this reward map to generate an operator-constrained policy. Our results, simulated based on input from five professional rescuers, display effective task mental model alignment, 18\% more victim finds, and 15 times more efficient guidance plans then current operational methods.
Exact Pareto Optimal Search for Multi-Task Learning and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making
Mahapatra, Debabrata, Rajan, Vaibhav
Given multiple non-convex objective functions and objective-specific weights, Chebyshev scalarization (CS) is a well-known approach to obtain an Exact Pareto Optimal (EPO), i.e., a solution on the Pareto front (PF) that intersects the ray defined by the inverse of the weights. First-order optimizers that use the CS formulation to find EPO solutions encounter practical problems of oscillations and stagnation that affect convergence. Moreover, when initialized with a PO solution, they do not guarantee a controlled trajectory that lies completely on the PF. These shortcomings lead to modeling limitations and computational inefficiency in multi-task learning (MTL) and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods that utilize CS for their underlying non-convex multi-objective optimization (MOO). To address these shortcomings, we design a new MOO method, EPO Search. We prove that EPO Search converges to an EPO solution and empirically illustrate its computational efficiency and robustness to initialization. When initialized on the PF, EPO Search can trace the PF and converge to the required EPO solution at a linear rate of convergence. Using EPO Search we develop new algorithms: PESA-EPO for approximating the PF in a posteriori MCDM, and GP-EPO for preference elicitation in interactive MCDM; experiments on benchmark datasets confirm their advantages over competing alternatives. EPO Search scales linearly with the number of decision variables which enables its use for training deep networks. Empirical results on real data from personalized medicine, e-commerce and hydrometeorology demonstrate the efficacy of EPO Search for deep MTL.