Uncertainty
Autonomous Vehicles an overview on system, cyber security, risks, issues, and a way forward
Islam, Md Aminul, Alqahtani, Sarah
This chapter explores the complex realm of autonomous cars, analyzing their fundamental components and operational characteristics. The initial phase of the discussion is elucidating the internal mechanics of these automobiles, encompassing the crucial involvement of sensors, artificial intelligence (AI) identification systems, control mechanisms, and their integration with cloud-based servers within the framework of the Internet of Things (IoT). It delves into practical implementations of autonomous cars, emphasizing their utilization in forecasting traffic patterns and transforming the dynamics of transportation. The text also explores the topic of Robotic Process Automation (RPA), illustrating the impact of autonomous cars on different businesses through the automation of tasks. The primary focus of this investigation lies in the realm of cybersecurity, specifically in the context of autonomous vehicles. A comprehensive analysis will be conducted to explore various risk management solutions aimed at protecting these vehicles from potential threats including ethical, environmental, legal, professional, and social dimensions, offering a comprehensive perspective on their societal implications. A strategic plan for addressing the challenges and proposing strategies for effectively traversing the complex terrain of autonomous car systems, cybersecurity, hazards, and other concerns are some resources for acquiring an understanding of the intricate realm of autonomous cars and their ramifications in contemporary society, supported by a comprehensive compilation of resources for additional investigation. Keywords: RPA, Cyber Security, AV, Risk, Smart Cars
Characterising User Transfer Amid Industrial Resource Variation: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach
Lei, Dongxu, Lin, Xiaotian, Yu, Xinghu, Li, Zhan, Sun, Weichao, Qiu, Jianbin, Zhuang, Songlin, Gao, Huijun
In a multitude of industrial fields, a key objective entails optimising resource management whilst satisfying user requirements. Resource management by industrial practitioners can result in a passive transfer of user loads across resource providers, a phenomenon whose accurate characterisation is both challenging and crucial. This research reveals the existence of user clusters, which capture macro-level user transfer patterns amid resource variation. We then propose CLUSTER, an interpretable hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric model capable of automating cluster identification, and thereby predicting user transfer in response to resource variation. Furthermore, CLUSTER facilitates uncertainty quantification for further reliable decision-making. Our method enables privacy protection by functioning independently of personally identifiable information. Experiments with simulated and real-world data from the communications industry reveal a pronounced alignment between prediction results and empirical observations across a spectrum of resource management scenarios. This research establishes a solid groundwork for advancing resource management strategy development.
Improved Techniques for Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Diffusion ODEs
Zheng, Kaiwen, Lu, Cheng, Chen, Jianfei, Zhu, Jun
Diffusion models have exhibited excellent performance in various domains. The probability flow ordinary differential equation (ODE) of diffusion models (i.e., diffusion ODEs) is a particular case of continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), which enables deterministic inference and exact likelihood evaluation. However, the likelihood estimation results by diffusion ODEs are still far from those of the state-of-the-art likelihood-based generative models. In this work, we propose several improved techniques for maximum likelihood estimation for diffusion ODEs, including both training and evaluation perspectives. For training, we propose velocity parameterization and explore variance reduction techniques for faster convergence. We also derive an error-bounded high-order flow matching objective for finetuning, which improves the ODE likelihood and smooths its trajectory. For evaluation, we propose a novel training-free truncated-normal dequantization to fill the training-evaluation gap commonly existing in diffusion ODEs. Building upon these techniques, we achieve state-of-the-art likelihood estimation results on image datasets (2.56 on CIFAR-10, 3.43/3.69 on ImageNet-32) without variational dequantization or data augmentation. Code is available at \url{https://github.com/thu-ml/i-DODE}.
A Robust Multilabel Method Integrating Rule-based Transparent Model, Soft Label Correlation Learning and Label Noise Resistance
Lou, Qiongdan, Deng, Zhaohong, Choi, Kup-Sze, Wang, Shitong
Model transparency, label correlation learning and the robust-ness to label noise are crucial for multilabel learning. However, few existing methods study these three characteristics simultaneously. To address this challenge, we propose the robust multilabel Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy system (R-MLTSK-FS) with three mechanisms. First, we design a soft label learning mechanism to reduce the effect of label noise by explicitly measuring the interactions between labels, which is also the basis of the other two mechanisms. Second, the rule-based TSK FS is used as the base model to efficiently model the inference relationship be-tween features and soft labels in a more transparent way than many existing multilabel models. Third, to further improve the performance of multilabel learning, we build a correlation enhancement learning mechanism based on the soft label space and the fuzzy feature space. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method.
Nonlinear Heterogeneous Bayesian Decentralized Data Fusion
Dagan, Ofer, Cinquini, Tycho L., Ahmed, Nisar R.
The factor graph decentralized data fusion (FG-DDF) framework was developed for the analysis and exploitation of conditional independence in {heterogeneous Bayesian decentralized fusion problems, in which robots update and fuse pdfs over different, but overlapping subsets of random states. This allows robots to efficiently use smaller probabilistic models and sparse message passing to accurately and scalably fuse relevant local parts of a larger global joint state pdf while accounting for data dependencies between robots. Whereas prior work required limiting assumptions about network connectivity and model linearity, this paper relaxes these to explore the applicability and robustness of FG-DDF in more general settings. We develop a new heterogeneous fusion rule which generalizes the homogeneous covariance intersection algorithm for such cases and test it in multi-robot tracking and localization scenarios with non-linear motion/observation models under communication dropouts. Simulation and hardware experiments show that, in practice, the FG-DDF continues to provide consistent filtered estimates under these more practical operating conditions, while reducing computation and communication costs by more than 99\%, thus enabling the design of scalable real-world multi-robot systems.
Simulating counterfactuals
Karvanen, Juha, Tikka, Santtu, Vihola, Matti
A counterfactual distribution is the probability distribution of a random variable under a hypothetical scenario that differs from the observed reality. "What would have been the outcome for this individual if they had received a different treatment?" is an example of a counterfactual question. Here the personal data of the individual constitute the evidence that specifies the observed reality, and the interest lies in the distribution of the outcome under a hypothetical treatment. Counterfactual questions belong to the third and highest level in the causal hierarchy (Shpitser and Pearl, 2008) and are in general more difficult than associational (first level) or interventional (second level) questions. Algorithms for checking the identifiability of counterfactual queries from observational and experimental data have been developed (Shpitser and Pearl, 2007; Shpitser and Sherman, 2018; Correa et al., 2021) and implemented (Tikka, 2022).
Borda Regret Minimization for Generalized Linear Dueling Bandits
Wu, Yue, Jin, Tao, Lou, Hao, Farnoud, Farzad, Gu, Quanquan
Dueling bandits are widely used to model preferential feedback prevalent in many applications such as recommendation systems and ranking. In this paper, we study the Borda regret minimization problem for dueling bandits, which aims to identify the item with the highest Borda score while minimizing the cumulative regret. We propose a rich class of generalized linear dueling bandit models, which cover many existing models. We first prove a regret lower bound of order $\Omega(d^{2/3} T^{2/3})$ for the Borda regret minimization problem, where $d$ is the dimension of contextual vectors and $T$ is the time horizon. To attain this lower bound, we propose an explore-then-commit type algorithm for the stochastic setting, which has a nearly matching regret upper bound $\tilde{O}(d^{2/3} T^{2/3})$. We also propose an EXP3-type algorithm for the adversarial linear setting, where the underlying model parameter can change at each round. Our algorithm achieves an $\tilde{O}(d^{2/3} T^{2/3})$ regret, which is also optimal. Empirical evaluations on both synthetic data and a simulated real-world environment are conducted to corroborate our theoretical analysis.
Understanding Diffusion Objectives as the ELBO with Simple Data Augmentation
Kingma, Diederik P., Gao, Ruiqi
To achieve the highest perceptual quality, state-of-the-art diffusion models are optimized with objectives that typically look very different from the maximum likelihood and the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) objectives. In this work, we reveal that diffusion model objectives are actually closely related to the ELBO. Specifically, we show that all commonly used diffusion model objectives equate to a weighted integral of ELBOs over different noise levels, where the weighting depends on the specific objective used. Under the condition of monotonic weighting, the connection is even closer: the diffusion objective then equals the ELBO, combined with simple data augmentation, namely Gaussian noise perturbation. We show that this condition holds for a number of state-of-the-art diffusion models. In experiments, we explore new monotonic weightings and demonstrate their effectiveness, achieving state-of-the-art FID scores on the high-resolution ImageNet benchmark.
Combinatorial and algebraic perspectives on the marginal independence structure of Bayesian networks
Deligeorgaki, Danai, Markham, Alex, Misra, Pratik, Solus, Liam
We consider the problem of estimating the marginal independence structure of a Bayesian network from observational data in the form of an undirected graph called the unconditional dependence graph. We show that unconditional dependence graphs of Bayesian networks correspond to the graphs having equal independence and intersection numbers. Using this observation, a Gr\"obner basis for a toric ideal associated to unconditional dependence graphs of Bayesian networks is given and then extended by additional binomial relations to connect the space of all such graphs. An MCMC method, called GrUES (Gr\"obner-based Unconditional Equivalence Search), is implemented based on the resulting moves and applied to synthetic Gaussian data. GrUES recovers the true marginal independence structure via a penalized maximum likelihood or MAP estimate at a higher rate than simple independence tests while also yielding an estimate of the posterior, for which the $20\%$ HPD credible sets include the true structure at a high rate for data-generating graphs with density at least $0.5$.
A Probabilistic Model for Data Redundancy in the Feature Domain
In this paper, we use a probabilistic model to estimate the number of uncorrelated features in a large dataset. Our model allows for both pairwise feature correlation (collinearity) and interdependency of multiple features (multicollinearity) and we use the probabilistic method to obtain upper and lower bounds of the same order, for the size of a feature set that exhibits low collinearity and low multicollinearity. We also prove an auxiliary result regarding mutually good constrained sets that is of independent interest.