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 Uncertainty


Efficient Bayesian inference using physics-informed invertible neural networks for inverse problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we introduce an innovative approach for addressing Bayesian inverse problems through the utilization of physics-informed invertible neural networks (PI-INN). The PI-INN framework encompasses two sub-networks: an invertible neural network (INN) and a neural basis network (NB-Net). The primary role of the NB-Net lies in modeling the spatial basis functions characterizing the solution to the forward problem dictated by the underlying partial differential equation. Simultaneously, the INN is designed to partition the parameter vector linked to the input physical field into two distinct components: the expansion coefficients representing the forward problem solution and the Gaussian latent noise. If the forward mapping is precisely estimated, and the statistical independence between expansion coefficients and latent noise is well-maintained, the PI-INN offers a precise and efficient generative model for Bayesian inverse problems, yielding tractable posterior density estimates. As a particular physics-informed deep learning model, the primary training challenge for PI-INN centers on enforcing the independence constraint, which we tackle by introducing a novel independence loss based on estimated density. We support the efficacy and precision of the proposed PI-INN through a series of numerical experiments, including inverse kinematics, 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional diffusion equations, and seismic traveltime tomography. Specifically, our experimental results showcase the superior performance of the proposed independence loss in comparison to the commonly used but computationally demanding kernel-based maximum mean discrepancy loss.


DANI: Fast Diffusion Aware Network Inference with Preserving Topological Structure Property

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The fast growth of social networks and their data access limitations in recent years has led to increasing difficulty in obtaining the complete topology of these networks. However, diffusion information over these networks is available, and many algorithms have been proposed to infer the underlying networks using this information. The previously proposed algorithms only focus on inferring more links and ignore preserving the critical topological characteristics of the underlying social networks. In this paper, we propose a novel method called DANI to infer the underlying network while preserving its structural properties. It is based on the Markov transition matrix derived from time series cascades, as well as the node-node similarity that can be observed in the cascade behavior from a structural point of view. In addition, the presented method has linear time complexity (increases linearly with the number of nodes, number of cascades, and square of the average length of cascades), and its distributed version in the MapReduce framework is also scalable. We applied the proposed approach to both real and synthetic networks. The experimental results showed that DANI has higher accuracy and lower run time while maintaining structural properties, including modular structure, degree distribution, connected components, density, and clustering coefficients, than well-known network inference methods.


MUBen: Benchmarking the Uncertainty of Molecular Representation Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large molecular representation models pre-trained on massive unlabeled data have shown great success in predicting molecular properties. However, these models may tend to overfit the fine-tuning data, resulting in over-confident predictions on test data that fall outside of the training distribution. To address this issue, uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods can be used to improve the models' calibration of predictions. Although many UQ approaches exist, not all of them lead to improved performance. While some studies have included UQ to improve molecular pre-trained models, the process of selecting suitable backbone and UQ methods for reliable molecular uncertainty estimation remains underexplored. To address this gap, we present MUBen, which evaluates different UQ methods for state-of-the-art backbone molecular representation models to investigate their capabilities. By fine-tuning various backbones using different molecular descriptors as inputs with UQ methods from different categories, we critically assess the influence of architectural decisions and training strategies. Our study offers insights for selecting UQ for backbone models, which can facilitate research on uncertainty-critical applications in fields such as materials science and drug discovery.


The Neural Process Family: Survey, Applications and Perspectives

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The standard approaches to neural network implementation yield powerful function approximation capabilities but are limited in their abilities to learn meta representations and reason probabilistic uncertainties in their predictions. Gaussian processes, on the other hand, adopt the Bayesian learning scheme to estimate such uncertainties but are constrained by their efficiency and approximation capacity. The Neural Processes Family (NPF) intends to offer the best of both worlds by leveraging neural networks for meta-learning predictive uncertainties. Such potential has brought substantial research activity to the family in recent years. Therefore, a comprehensive survey of NPF models is needed to organize and relate their motivation, methodology, and experiments. This paper intends to address this gap while digging deeper into the formulation, research themes, and applications concerning the family members. We shed light on their potential to bring several recent advances in other deep learning domains under one umbrella. We then provide a rigorous taxonomy of the family and empirically demonstrate their capabilities for modeling data generating functions operating on 1-d, 2-d, and 3-d input domains. We conclude by discussing our perspectives on the promising directions that can fuel the research advances in the field. Code for our experiments will be made available at https://github.com/srvCodes/neural-processes-survey.


Data Cleaning and Machine Learning: A Systematic Literature Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Context: Machine Learning (ML) is integrated into a growing number of systems for various applications. Because the performance of an ML model is highly dependent on the quality of the data it has been trained on, there is a growing interest in approaches to detect and repair data errors (i.e., data cleaning). Researchers are also exploring how ML can be used for data cleaning; hence creating a dual relationship between ML and data cleaning. To the best of our knowledge, there is no study that comprehensively reviews this relationship. Objective: This paper's objectives are twofold. First, it aims to summarize the latest approaches for data cleaning for ML and ML for data cleaning. Second, it provides future work recommendations. Method: We conduct a systematic literature review of the papers published between 2016 and 2022 inclusively. We identify different types of data cleaning activities with and for ML: feature cleaning, label cleaning, entity matching, outlier detection, imputation, and holistic data cleaning. Results: We summarize the content of 101 papers covering various data cleaning activities and provide 24 future work recommendations. Our review highlights many promising data cleaning techniques that can be further extended. Conclusion: We believe that our review of the literature will help the community develop better approaches to clean data.


Predicting Future Spatiotemporal Occupancy Grids with Semantics for Autonomous Driving

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

For autonomous vehicles to proactively plan safe trajectories and make informed decisions, they must be able to predict the future occupancy states of the local environment. However, common issues with occupancy prediction include predictions where moving objects vanish or become blurred, particularly at longer time horizons. We propose an environment prediction framework that incorporates environment semantics for future occupancy prediction. Our method first semantically segments the environment and uses this information along with the occupancy information to predict the spatiotemporal evolution of the environment. We validate our approach on the real-world Waymo Open Dataset. Compared to baseline methods, our model has higher prediction accuracy and is capable of maintaining moving object appearances in the predictions for longer prediction time horizons.


Causality-informed Rapid Post-hurricane Building Damage Detection in Large Scale from InSAR Imagery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Timely and accurate assessment of hurricane-induced building damage is crucial for effective post-hurricane response and recovery efforts. Recently, remote sensing technologies provide large-scale optical or Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) imagery data immediately after a disastrous event, which can be readily used to conduct rapid building damage assessment. Compared to optical satellite imageries, the Synthetic Aperture Radar can penetrate cloud cover and provide more complete spatial coverage of damaged zones in various weather conditions. However, these InSAR imageries often contain highly noisy and mixed signals induced by co-occurring or co-located building damage, flood, flood/wind-induced vegetation changes, as well as anthropogenic activities, making it challenging to extract accurate building damage information. In this paper, we introduced an approach for rapid post-hurricane building damage detection from InSAR imagery. This approach encoded complex causal dependencies among wind, flood, building damage, and InSAR imagery using a holistic causal Bayesian network. Based on the causal Bayesian network, we further jointly inferred the large-scale unobserved building damage by fusing the information from InSAR imagery with prior physical models of flood and wind, without the need for ground truth labels. Furthermore, we validated our estimation results in a real-world devastating hurricane -- the 2022 Hurricane Ian. We gathered and annotated building damage ground truth data in Lee County, Florida, and compared the introduced method's estimation results with the ground truth and benchmarked it against state-of-the-art models to assess the effectiveness of our proposed method. Results show that our method achieves rapid and accurate detection of building damage, with significantly reduced processing time compared to traditional manual inspection methods.


Language Model Decoding as Direct Metrics Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the remarkable advances in language modeling, current mainstream decoding methods still struggle to generate texts that align with human texts across different aspects. In particular, sampling-based methods produce less-repetitive texts which are often disjunctive in discourse, while search-based methods maintain topic coherence at the cost of increased repetition. Overall, these methods fall short in achieving holistic alignment across a broad range of aspects. In this work, we frame decoding from a language model as an optimization problem with the goal of strictly matching the expected performance with human texts measured by multiple metrics of desired aspects simultaneously. The resulting decoding distribution enjoys an analytical solution that scales the input language model distribution via a sequence-level energy function defined by these metrics. And most importantly, we prove that this induced distribution is guaranteed to improve the perplexity on human texts, which suggests a better approximation to the underlying distribution of human texts. To facilitate tractable sampling from this globally normalized distribution, we adopt the Sampling-Importance-Resampling technique. Experiments on various domains and model scales demonstrate the superiority of our method in metrics alignment with human texts and human evaluation over strong baselines.


Escaping the Sample Trap: Fast and Accurate Epistemic Uncertainty Estimation with Pairwise-Distance Estimators

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In machine learning, the ability to assess uncertainty in model predictions is crucial for decision-making, safety-critical applications, and model generalizability. This work introduces a novel approach for epistemic uncertainty estimation for ensemble models using pairwise-distance estimators (PaiDEs). These estimators utilize the pairwise-distance between model components to establish bounds on entropy, which are then used as estimates for information-based criterion. Unlike recent deep learning methods for epistemic uncertainty estimation, which rely on sample-based Monte Carlo estimators, PaiDEs are able to estimate epistemic uncertainty up to 100 times faster, over a larger input space (up to 100 times) and perform more accurately in higher dimensions. To validate our approach, we conducted a series of experiments commonly used to evaluate epistemic uncertainty estimation: 1D sinusoidal data, $\textit{Pendulum-v0}$, $\textit{Hopper-v2}$, $\textit{Ant-v2}$ and $\textit{Humanoid-v2}$. For each experimental setting, an Active Learning framework was applied to demonstrate the advantages of PaiDEs for epistemic uncertainty estimation.


LDPC codes: tracking non-stationary channel noise using sequential variational Bayesian estimates

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a sequential Bayesian learning method for tracking non-stationary signal-to-noise ratios in LDPC codes using probabilistic graphical models. We represent the LDPC code as a cluster graph using a general purpose cluster graph construction algorithm called the layered trees running intersection property (LTRIP) algorithm. The channel noise estimator is a global Gamma cluster, which we extend to allow for Bayesian tracking of non-stationary noise variation. We evaluate our proposed model on real-world 5G drive test data. Our results show that our model is capable of tracking non-stationary channel noise, which outperforms an LDPC code with a fixed knowledge of the actual average channel noise.