In recent years, the integration of Automated Planning (AP) and Reinforcement Learning (RL) has seen a surge of interest. To perform this integration, a general framework for Sequential Decision Making (SDM) would prove immensely useful, as it would help us understand how AP and RL fit together. In this preliminary work, we attempt to provide such a framework, suitable for any method ranging from Classical Planning to Deep RL, by drawing on concepts from Probability Theory and Bayesian inference. We formulate an SDM task as a set of training and test Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), to account for generalization. We provide a general algorithm for SDM which we hypothesize every SDM method is based on. According to it, every SDM algorithm can be seen as a procedure that iteratively improves its solution estimate by leveraging the task knowledge available. Finally, we derive a set of formulas and algorithms for calculating interesting properties of SDM tasks and methods, which make possible their empirical evaluation and comparison.

Whittle index policy is a heuristic to the intractable restless multi-armed bandits (RMAB) problem. Although it is provably asymptotically optimal, finding Whittle indices remains difficult. In this paper, we present Neural-Q-Whittle, a Whittle index based Q-learning algorithm for RMAB with neural network function approximation, which is an example of nonlinear two-timescale stochastic approximation with Q-function values updated on a faster timescale and Whittle indices on a slower timescale. Despite the empirical success of deep Q-learning, the non-asymptotic convergence rate of Neural-Q-Whittle, which couples neural networks with two-timescale Q-learning largely remains unclear. This paper provides a finite-time analysis of Neural-Q-Whittle, where data are generated from a Markov chain, and Q-function is approximated by a ReLU neural network. Our analysis leverages a Lyapunov drift approach to capture the evolution of two coupled parameters, and the nonlinearity in value function approximation further requires us to characterize the approximation error. Combing these provide Neural-Q-Whittle with $\mathcal{O}(1/k^{2/3})$ convergence rate, where $k$ is the number of iterations.

While forward reasoning (i.e. find the answer given the question) has been explored extensively in the recent literature, backward reasoning is relatively unexplored. We examine the backward reasoning capabilities of LLMs on Math Word Problems (MWPs): given a mathematical question and its answer, with some details omitted from the question, can LLMs effectively retrieve the missing information? In this paper, we formally define the backward reasoning task on math word problems and modify three datasets to evaluate this task: GSM8k, SVAMP and MultiArith. Our findings show a significant drop in the accuracy of models on backward reasoning compared to forward reasoning across four SOTA LLMs (GPT4, GPT3.5, PaLM-2, and LLaMa-2). Utilizing the specific format of this task, we propose three novel techniques that improve performance: Rephrase reformulates the given problem into a forward reasoning problem, PAL-Tools combines the idea of Program-Aided LLMs to produce a set of equations that can be solved by an external solver, and Check your Work exploits the availability of natural verifier of high accuracy in the forward direction, interleaving solving and verification steps. Finally, realizing that each of our base methods correctly solves a different set of problems, we propose a novel Bayesian formulation for creating an ensemble over these base methods aided by a verifier to further boost the accuracy by a significant margin. Extensive experimentation demonstrates that our techniques successively improve the performance of LLMs on the backward reasoning task, with the final ensemble-based method resulting in a substantial performance gain compared to the raw LLMs with standard prompting techniques such as chain-of-thought.

Model-based reinforcement learning seeks to simultaneously learn the dynamics of an unknown stochastic environment and synthesise an optimal policy for acting in it. Ensuring the safety and robustness of sequential decisions made through a policy in such an environment is a key challenge for policies intended for safety-critical scenarios. In this work, we investigate two complementary problems: first, computing reach-avoid probabilities for iterative predictions made with dynamical models, with dynamics described by Bayesian neural network (BNN); second, synthesising control policies that are optimal with respect to a given reach-avoid specification (reaching a "target" state, while avoiding a set of "unsafe" states) and a learned BNN model. Our solution leverages interval propagation and backward recursion techniques to compute lower bounds for the probability that a policy's sequence of actions leads to satisfying the reach-avoid specification. Such computed lower bounds provide safety certification for the given policy and BNN model. We then introduce control synthesis algorithms to derive policies maximizing said lower bounds on the safety probability. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on a series of control benchmarks characterized by learned BNN dynamics models. On our most challenging benchmark, compared to purely data-driven policies the optimal synthesis algorithm is able to provide more than a four-fold increase in the number of certifiable states and more than a three-fold increase in the average guaranteed reach-avoid probability.

Bayesian personalized federated learning (BPFL) addresses challenges in existing personalized FL (PFL). BPFL aims to quantify the uncertainty and heterogeneity within and across clients towards uncertainty representations by addressing the statistical heterogeneity of client data. In PFL, some recent preliminary work proposes to decompose hidden neural representations into shared and local components and demonstrates interesting results. However, most of them do not address client uncertainty and heterogeneity in FL systems, while appropriately decoupling neural representations is challenging and often ad hoc. In this paper, we make the first attempt to introduce a general BPFL framework to decompose and jointly learn shared and personalized uncertainty representations on statistically heterogeneous client data over time. A Bayesian federated neural network BPFed instantiates BPFL by jointly learning cross-client shared uncertainty and client-specific personalized uncertainty over statistically heterogeneous and randomly participating clients. We further involve continual updating of prior distribution in BPFed to speed up the convergence and avoid catastrophic forgetting. Theoretical analysis and guarantees are provided in addition to the experimental evaluation of BPFed against the diversified baselines.

We present a new algorithm for amortized inference in sparse probabilistic graphical models (PGMs), which we call $\Delta$-amortized inference ($\Delta$-AI). Our approach is based on the observation that when the sampling of variables in a PGM is seen as a sequence of actions taken by an agent, sparsity of the PGM enables local credit assignment in the agent's policy learning objective. This yields a local constraint that can be turned into a local loss in the style of generative flow networks (GFlowNets) that enables off-policy training but avoids the need to instantiate all the random variables for each parameter update, thus speeding up training considerably. The $\Delta$-AI objective matches the conditional distribution of a variable given its Markov blanket in a tractable learned sampler, which has the structure of a Bayesian network, with the same conditional distribution under the target PGM. As such, the trained sampler recovers marginals and conditional distributions of interest and enables inference of partial subsets of variables. We illustrate $\Delta$-AI's effectiveness for sampling from synthetic PGMs and training latent variable models with sparse factor structure.

Modern distribution matching algorithms for training diffusion or flow models directly prescribe the time evolution of the marginal distributions between two boundary distributions. In this work, we consider a generalized distribution matching setup, where these marginals are only implicitly described as a solution to some task-specific objective function. The problem setup, known as the Generalized Schr\"odinger Bridge (GSB), appears prevalently in many scientific areas both within and without machine learning. We propose Generalized Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching (GSBM), a new matching algorithm inspired by recent advances, generalizing them beyond kinetic energy minimization and to account for task-specific state costs. We show that such a generalization can be cast as solving conditional stochastic optimal control, for which efficient variational approximations can be used, and further debiased with the aid of path integral theory. Compared to prior methods for solving GSB problems, our GSBM algorithm always preserves a feasible transport map between the boundary distributions throughout training, thereby enabling stable convergence and significantly improved scalability. We empirically validate our claims on an extensive suite of experimental setups, including crowd navigation, opinion depolarization, LiDAR manifolds, and image domain transfer. Our work brings new algorithmic opportunities for training diffusion models enhanced with task-specific optimality structures.

In estimation theory, the Kushner equation provides the evolution of the probability density of the state of a dynamical system given continuous-time observations. Building upon our recent work, we propose a new way to approximate the solution of the Kushner equation through tractable variational Gaussian approximations of two proximal losses associated with the propagation and Bayesian update of the probability density. The first is a proximal loss based on the Wasserstein metric and the second is a proximal loss based on the Fisher metric. The solution to this last proximal loss is given by implicit updates on the mean and covariance that we proposed earlier. These two variational updates can be fused and shown to satisfy a set of stochastic differential equations on the Gaussian's mean and covariance matrix. This Gaussian flow is consistent with the Kalman-Bucy and Riccati flows in the linear case and generalize them in the nonlinear one.

In Simulation-based Inference, the goal is to solve the inverse problem when the likelihood is only known implicitly. Neural Posterior Estimation commonly fits a normalized density estimator as a surrogate model for the posterior. This formulation cannot easily fit unnormalized surrogates because it optimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence. We propose to optimize a generalized Kullback-Leibler divergence that accounts for the normalization constant in unnormalized distributions. The objective recovers Neural Posterior Estimation when the model class is normalized and unifies it with Neural Ratio Estimation, combining both into a single objective. We investigate a hybrid model that offers the best of both worlds by learning a normalized base distribution and a learned ratio. We also present benchmark results.

Point processes offer a versatile framework for sequential event modeling. However, the computational challenges and constrained representational power of the existing point process models have impeded their potential for wider applications. This limitation becomes especially pronounced when dealing with event data that is associated with multi-dimensional or high-dimensional marks such as texts or images. To address this challenge, this study proposes a novel event generative framework for modeling point processes with high-dimensional marks. We aim to capture the distribution of events without explicitly specifying the conditional intensity or probability density function. Instead, we use a conditional generator that takes the history of events as input and generates the high-quality subsequent event that is likely to occur given the prior observations. The proposed framework offers a host of benefits, including considerable representational power to capture intricate dynamics in multi- or even high-dimensional event space, as well as exceptional efficiency in learning the model and generating samples. Our numerical results demonstrate superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art baselines.