Uncertainty
Delta-AI: Local objectives for amortized inference in sparse graphical models
Falet, Jean-Pierre, Lee, Hae Beom, Malkin, Nikolay, Sun, Chen, Secrieru, Dragos, Zhang, Dinghuai, Lajoie, Guillaume, Bengio, Yoshua
We present a new algorithm for amortized inference in sparse probabilistic graphical models (PGMs), which we call $\Delta$-amortized inference ($\Delta$-AI). Our approach is based on the observation that when the sampling of variables in a PGM is seen as a sequence of actions taken by an agent, sparsity of the PGM enables local credit assignment in the agent's policy learning objective. This yields a local constraint that can be turned into a local loss in the style of generative flow networks (GFlowNets) that enables off-policy training but avoids the need to instantiate all the random variables for each parameter update, thus speeding up training considerably. The $\Delta$-AI objective matches the conditional distribution of a variable given its Markov blanket in a tractable learned sampler, which has the structure of a Bayesian network, with the same conditional distribution under the target PGM. As such, the trained sampler recovers marginals and conditional distributions of interest and enables inference of partial subsets of variables. We illustrate $\Delta$-AI's effectiveness for sampling from synthetic PGMs and training latent variable models with sparse factor structure.
Generalized Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching
Liu, Guan-Horng, Lipman, Yaron, Nickel, Maximilian, Karrer, Brian, Theodorou, Evangelos A., Chen, Ricky T. Q.
Modern distribution matching algorithms for training diffusion or flow models directly prescribe the time evolution of the marginal distributions between two boundary distributions. In this work, we consider a generalized distribution matching setup, where these marginals are only implicitly described as a solution to some task-specific objective function. The problem setup, known as the Generalized Schr\"odinger Bridge (GSB), appears prevalently in many scientific areas both within and without machine learning. We propose Generalized Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching (GSBM), a new matching algorithm inspired by recent advances, generalizing them beyond kinetic energy minimization and to account for task-specific state costs. We show that such a generalization can be cast as solving conditional stochastic optimal control, for which efficient variational approximations can be used, and further debiased with the aid of path integral theory. Compared to prior methods for solving GSB problems, our GSBM algorithm always preserves a feasible transport map between the boundary distributions throughout training, thereby enabling stable convergence and significantly improved scalability. We empirically validate our claims on an extensive suite of experimental setups, including crowd navigation, opinion depolarization, LiDAR manifolds, and image domain transfer. Our work brings new algorithmic opportunities for training diffusion models enhanced with task-specific optimality structures.
Variational Gaussian approximation of the Kushner optimal filter
Lambert, Marc, Bonnabel, Silvère, Bach, Francis
In estimation theory, the Kushner equation provides the evolution of the probability density of the state of a dynamical system given continuous-time observations. Building upon our recent work, we propose a new way to approximate the solution of the Kushner equation through tractable variational Gaussian approximations of two proximal losses associated with the propagation and Bayesian update of the probability density. The first is a proximal loss based on the Wasserstein metric and the second is a proximal loss based on the Fisher metric. The solution to this last proximal loss is given by implicit updates on the mean and covariance that we proposed earlier. These two variational updates can be fused and shown to satisfy a set of stochastic differential equations on the Gaussian's mean and covariance matrix. This Gaussian flow is consistent with the Kalman-Bucy and Riccati flows in the linear case and generalize them in the nonlinear one.
Simulation-based Inference with the Generalized Kullback-Leibler Divergence
Miller, Benjamin Kurt, Federici, Marco, Weniger, Christoph, Forré, Patrick
In Simulation-based Inference, the goal is to solve the inverse problem when the likelihood is only known implicitly. Neural Posterior Estimation commonly fits a normalized density estimator as a surrogate model for the posterior. This formulation cannot easily fit unnormalized surrogates because it optimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence. We propose to optimize a generalized Kullback-Leibler divergence that accounts for the normalization constant in unnormalized distributions. The objective recovers Neural Posterior Estimation when the model class is normalized and unifies it with Neural Ratio Estimation, combining both into a single objective. We investigate a hybrid model that offers the best of both worlds by learning a normalized base distribution and a learned ratio. We also present benchmark results.
Conditional Generative Modeling for High-dimensional Marked Temporal Point Processes
Dong, Zheng, Fan, Zekai, Zhu, Shixiang
Point processes offer a versatile framework for sequential event modeling. However, the computational challenges and constrained representational power of the existing point process models have impeded their potential for wider applications. This limitation becomes especially pronounced when dealing with event data that is associated with multi-dimensional or high-dimensional marks such as texts or images. To address this challenge, this study proposes a novel event generative framework for modeling point processes with high-dimensional marks. We aim to capture the distribution of events without explicitly specifying the conditional intensity or probability density function. Instead, we use a conditional generator that takes the history of events as input and generates the high-quality subsequent event that is likely to occur given the prior observations. The proposed framework offers a host of benefits, including considerable representational power to capture intricate dynamics in multi- or even high-dimensional event space, as well as exceptional efficiency in learning the model and generating samples. Our numerical results demonstrate superior performance compared to other state-of-the-art baselines.
Efficient Bayesian inference using physics-informed invertible neural networks for inverse problems
Guan, Xiaofei, Wang, Xintong, Wu, Hao, Yang, Zihao, Yu, Peng
In this paper, we introduce an innovative approach for addressing Bayesian inverse problems through the utilization of physics-informed invertible neural networks (PI-INN). The PI-INN framework encompasses two sub-networks: an invertible neural network (INN) and a neural basis network (NB-Net). The primary role of the NB-Net lies in modeling the spatial basis functions characterizing the solution to the forward problem dictated by the underlying partial differential equation. Simultaneously, the INN is designed to partition the parameter vector linked to the input physical field into two distinct components: the expansion coefficients representing the forward problem solution and the Gaussian latent noise. If the forward mapping is precisely estimated, and the statistical independence between expansion coefficients and latent noise is well-maintained, the PI-INN offers a precise and efficient generative model for Bayesian inverse problems, yielding tractable posterior density estimates. As a particular physics-informed deep learning model, the primary training challenge for PI-INN centers on enforcing the independence constraint, which we tackle by introducing a novel independence loss based on estimated density. We support the efficacy and precision of the proposed PI-INN through a series of numerical experiments, including inverse kinematics, 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional diffusion equations, and seismic traveltime tomography. Specifically, our experimental results showcase the superior performance of the proposed independence loss in comparison to the commonly used but computationally demanding kernel-based maximum mean discrepancy loss.
DANI: Fast Diffusion Aware Network Inference with Preserving Topological Structure Property
Ramezani, Maryam, Ahadinia, Aryan, Farhadi, Erfan, Rabiee, Hamid R.
The fast growth of social networks and their data access limitations in recent years has led to increasing difficulty in obtaining the complete topology of these networks. However, diffusion information over these networks is available, and many algorithms have been proposed to infer the underlying networks using this information. The previously proposed algorithms only focus on inferring more links and ignore preserving the critical topological characteristics of the underlying social networks. In this paper, we propose a novel method called DANI to infer the underlying network while preserving its structural properties. It is based on the Markov transition matrix derived from time series cascades, as well as the node-node similarity that can be observed in the cascade behavior from a structural point of view. In addition, the presented method has linear time complexity (increases linearly with the number of nodes, number of cascades, and square of the average length of cascades), and its distributed version in the MapReduce framework is also scalable. We applied the proposed approach to both real and synthetic networks. The experimental results showed that DANI has higher accuracy and lower run time while maintaining structural properties, including modular structure, degree distribution, connected components, density, and clustering coefficients, than well-known network inference methods.
MUBen: Benchmarking the Uncertainty of Molecular Representation Models
Li, Yinghao, Kong, Lingkai, Du, Yuanqi, Yu, Yue, Zhuang, Yuchen, Mu, Wenhao, Zhang, Chao
Large molecular representation models pre-trained on massive unlabeled data have shown great success in predicting molecular properties. However, these models may tend to overfit the fine-tuning data, resulting in over-confident predictions on test data that fall outside of the training distribution. To address this issue, uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods can be used to improve the models' calibration of predictions. Although many UQ approaches exist, not all of them lead to improved performance. While some studies have included UQ to improve molecular pre-trained models, the process of selecting suitable backbone and UQ methods for reliable molecular uncertainty estimation remains underexplored. To address this gap, we present MUBen, which evaluates different UQ methods for state-of-the-art backbone molecular representation models to investigate their capabilities. By fine-tuning various backbones using different molecular descriptors as inputs with UQ methods from different categories, we critically assess the influence of architectural decisions and training strategies. Our study offers insights for selecting UQ for backbone models, which can facilitate research on uncertainty-critical applications in fields such as materials science and drug discovery.
The Neural Process Family: Survey, Applications and Perspectives
Jha, Saurav, Gong, Dong, Wang, Xuesong, Turner, Richard E., Yao, Lina
The standard approaches to neural network implementation yield powerful function approximation capabilities but are limited in their abilities to learn meta representations and reason probabilistic uncertainties in their predictions. Gaussian processes, on the other hand, adopt the Bayesian learning scheme to estimate such uncertainties but are constrained by their efficiency and approximation capacity. The Neural Processes Family (NPF) intends to offer the best of both worlds by leveraging neural networks for meta-learning predictive uncertainties. Such potential has brought substantial research activity to the family in recent years. Therefore, a comprehensive survey of NPF models is needed to organize and relate their motivation, methodology, and experiments. This paper intends to address this gap while digging deeper into the formulation, research themes, and applications concerning the family members. We shed light on their potential to bring several recent advances in other deep learning domains under one umbrella. We then provide a rigorous taxonomy of the family and empirically demonstrate their capabilities for modeling data generating functions operating on 1-d, 2-d, and 3-d input domains. We conclude by discussing our perspectives on the promising directions that can fuel the research advances in the field. Code for our experiments will be made available at https://github.com/srvCodes/neural-processes-survey.
Data Cleaning and Machine Learning: A Systematic Literature Review
Côté, Pierre-Olivier, Nikanjam, Amin, Ahmed, Nafisa, Humeniuk, Dmytro, Khomh, Foutse
Context: Machine Learning (ML) is integrated into a growing number of systems for various applications. Because the performance of an ML model is highly dependent on the quality of the data it has been trained on, there is a growing interest in approaches to detect and repair data errors (i.e., data cleaning). Researchers are also exploring how ML can be used for data cleaning; hence creating a dual relationship between ML and data cleaning. To the best of our knowledge, there is no study that comprehensively reviews this relationship. Objective: This paper's objectives are twofold. First, it aims to summarize the latest approaches for data cleaning for ML and ML for data cleaning. Second, it provides future work recommendations. Method: We conduct a systematic literature review of the papers published between 2016 and 2022 inclusively. We identify different types of data cleaning activities with and for ML: feature cleaning, label cleaning, entity matching, outlier detection, imputation, and holistic data cleaning. Results: We summarize the content of 101 papers covering various data cleaning activities and provide 24 future work recommendations. Our review highlights many promising data cleaning techniques that can be further extended. Conclusion: We believe that our review of the literature will help the community develop better approaches to clean data.