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 Uncertainty


Implementation of Fuzzy Control Algorithm in Two-Wheeled Differential Drive Platform

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Designing and developing Artificial Intelligence controllers on separately dedicated chips have many advantages. This report reviews the development of a real-time fuzzy logic controller for optimizing locomotion control of a two-wheeled differential drive platform using an Arduino Uno board. Based on the Raspberry Pi board, fuzzy sets are used to optimize color recognition, enabling the color sensor to correctly recognize color at long distances, across a wide range of light intensity, and with high fault tolerance.


Learning Joint Latent Space EBM Prior Model for Multi-layer Generator

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper studies the fundamental problem of learning multi-layer generator models. The multi-layer generator model builds multiple layers of latent variables as a prior model on top of the generator, which benefits learning complex data distribution and hierarchical representations. However, such a prior model usually focuses on modeling inter-layer relations between latent variables by assuming non-informative (conditional) Gaussian distributions, which can be limited in model expressivity. To tackle this issue and learn more expressive prior models, we propose an energy-based model (EBM) on the joint latent space over all layers of latent variables with the multi-layer generator as its backbone. Such joint latent space EBM prior model captures the intra-layer contextual relations at each layer through layer-wise energy terms, and latent variables across different layers are jointly corrected. We develop a joint training scheme via maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), which involves Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for both prior and posterior distributions of the latent variables from different layers. To ensure efficient inference and learning, we further propose a variational training scheme where an inference model is used to amortize the costly posterior MCMC sampling. Our experiments demonstrate that the learned model can be expressive in generating high-quality images and capturing hierarchical features for better outlier detection.


Multi-kernel Correntropy-based Orientation Estimation of IMUs: Gradient Descent Methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents two computationally efficient algorithms for the orientation estimation of inertial measurement units (IMUs): the correntropy-based gradient descent (CGD) and the correntropy-based decoupled orientation estimation (CDOE). Traditional methods, such as gradient descent (GD) and decoupled orientation estimation (DOE), rely on the mean squared error (MSE) criterion, making them vulnerable to external acceleration and magnetic interference. To address this issue, we demonstrate that the multi-kernel correntropy loss (MKCL) is an optimal objective function for maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) when the noise follows a type of heavy-tailed distribution. In certain situations, the estimation error of the MKCL is bounded even in the presence of arbitrarily large outliers. By replacing the standard MSE cost function with MKCL, we develop the CGD and CDOE algorithms. We evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed methods by comparing them with existing algorithms in various situations. Experimental results indicate that our proposed methods (CGD and CDOE) outperform their conventional counterparts (GD and DOE), especially when faced with external acceleration and magnetic disturbances. Furthermore, the new algorithms demonstrate significantly lower computational complexity than Kalman filter-based approaches, making them suitable for applications with low-cost microprocessors.


Provably Efficient Offline Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning with General Function Approximation and Single-Policy Concentrability

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) refers to learning general-purpose skills that aim to reach diverse goals. In particular, offline GCRL only requires purely pre-collected datasets to perform training tasks without additional interactions with the environment. Although offline GCRL has become increasingly prevalent and many previous works have demonstrated its empirical success, the theoretical understanding of efficient offline GCRL algorithms is not well established, especially when the state space is huge and the offline dataset only covers the policy we aim to learn. In this paper, we provide a rigorous theoretical analysis of an existing empirically successful offline GCRL algorithm. We prove that under slight modification, this algorithm enjoys an $\widetilde{O}(\text{poly}(1/\epsilon))$ sample complexity (where $\epsilon$ is the desired suboptimality of the learned policy) with general function approximation thanks to the property of (semi-)strong convexity of the objective functions. We only require nearly minimal assumptions on the dataset (single-policy concentrability) and the function class (realizability). Moreover, this algorithm consists of two uninterleaved optimization steps, which we refer to as $V$-learning and policy learning, and is computationally stable since it does not involve minimax optimization. We also empirically validate our theory by showing that the modified algorithm outperforms the previous algorithm in various real-world environments. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first algorithm that is both provably efficient with general function approximation and single-policy concentrability, and empirically successful without requiring solving minimax optimization problems.


Bias Mitigation for Machine Learning Classifiers: A Comprehensive Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper provides a comprehensive survey of bias mitigation methods for achieving fairness in Machine Learning (ML) models. We collect a total of 341 publications concerning bias mitigation for ML classifiers. These methods can be distinguished based on their intervention procedure (i.e., pre-processing, in-processing, post-processing) and the technique they apply. We investigate how existing bias mitigation methods are evaluated in the literature. In particular, we consider datasets, metrics and benchmarking. Based on the gathered insights (e.g., What is the most popular fairness metric? How many datasets are used for evaluating bias mitigation methods?), we hope to support practitioners in making informed choices when developing and evaluating new bias mitigation methods.


A Complete Recipe for Diffusion Generative Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Score-based Generative Models (SGMs) have demonstrated exceptional synthesis outcomes across various tasks. However, the current design landscape of the forward diffusion process remains largely untapped and often relies on physical heuristics or simplifying assumptions. Utilizing insights from the development of scalable Bayesian posterior samplers, we present a complete recipe for formulating forward processes in SGMs, ensuring convergence to the desired target distribution. Our approach reveals that several existing SGMs can be seen as specific manifestations of our framework. Building upon this method, we introduce Phase Space Langevin Diffusion (PSLD), which relies on score-based modeling within an augmented space enriched by auxiliary variables akin to physical phase space. Empirical results exhibit the superior sample quality and improved speed-quality trade-off of PSLD compared to various competing approaches on established image synthesis benchmarks. Remarkably, PSLD achieves sample quality akin to state-of-the-art SGMs (FID: 2.10 for unconditional CIFAR-10 generation). Lastly, we demonstrate the applicability of PSLD in conditional synthesis using pre-trained score networks, offering an appealing alternative as an SGM backbone for future advancements. Code and model checkpoints can be accessed at \url{https://github.com/mandt-lab/PSLD}.


Surrogate modeling for stochastic crack growth processes in structural health monitoring applications

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Fatigue crack growth is one of the most common types of deterioration in metal structures with significant implications on their reliability. Recent advances in Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) have motivated the use of structural response data to predict future crack growth under uncertainty, in order to enable a transition towards predictive maintenance. Accurately representing different sources of uncertainty in stochastic crack growth (SCG) processes is a non-trivial task. The present work builds on previous research on physics-based SCG modeling under both material and load-related uncertainty. The aim here is to construct computationally efficient, probabilistic surrogate models for SCG processes that successfully encode these different sources of uncertainty. An approach inspired by latent variable modeling is employed that utilizes Gaussian Process (GP) regression models to enable the surrogates to be used to generate prior distributions for different Bayesian SHM tasks as the application of interest. Implementation is carried out in a numerical setting and model performance is assessed for two fundamental crack SHM problems; namely crack length monitoring (damage quantification) and crack growth monitoring (damage prognosis).


Interacting Particle Langevin Algorithm for Maximum Marginal Likelihood Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop a class of interacting particle systems for implementing a maximum marginal likelihood estimation (MMLE) procedure to estimate the parameters of a latent variable model. We achieve this by formulating a continuous-time interacting particle system which can be seen as a Langevin diffusion over an extended state space of parameters and latent variables. In particular, we prove that the parameter marginal of the stationary measure of this diffusion has the form of a Gibbs measure where number of particles acts as the inverse temperature parameter in classical settings for global optimisation. Using a particular rescaling, we then prove geometric ergodicity of this system and bound the discretisation error in a manner that is uniform in time and does not increase with the number of particles. The discretisation results in an algorithm, termed Interacting Particle Langevin Algorithm (IPLA) which can be used for MMLE. We further prove nonasymptotic bounds for the optimisation error of our estimator in terms of key parameters of the problem, and also extend this result to the case of stochastic gradients covering practical scenarios. We provide numerical experiments to illustrate the empirical behaviour of our algorithm in the context of logistic regression with verifiable assumptions. Our setting provides a straightforward way to implement a diffusion-based optimisation routine compared to more classical approaches such as the Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm, and allows for especially explicit nonasymptotic bounds.


What and How does In-Context Learning Learn? Bayesian Model Averaging, Parameterization, and Generalization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive study of In-Context Learning (ICL) by addressing several open questions: (a) What type of ICL estimator is learned by large language models? (b) What is a proper performance metric for ICL and what is the error rate? (c) How does the transformer architecture enable ICL? To answer these questions, we adopt a Bayesian view and formulate ICL as a problem of predicting the response corresponding to the current covariate, given a number of examples drawn from a latent variable model. To answer (a), we show that, without updating the neural network parameters, ICL implicitly implements the Bayesian model averaging algorithm, which is proven to be approximately parameterized by the attention mechanism. For (b), we analyze the ICL performance from an online learning perspective and establish a $\mathcal{O}(1/T)$ regret bound for perfectly pretrained ICL, where $T$ is the number of examples in the prompt. To answer (c), we show that, in addition to encoding Bayesian model averaging via attention, the transformer architecture also enables a fine-grained statistical analysis of pretraining under realistic assumptions. In particular, we prove that the error of pretrained model is bounded by a sum of an approximation error and a generalization error, where the former decays to zero exponentially as the depth grows, and the latter decays to zero sublinearly with the number of tokens in the pretraining dataset. Our results provide a unified understanding of the transformer and its ICL ability with bounds on ICL regret, approximation, and generalization, which deepens our knowledge of these essential aspects of modern language models.


Investigating the Adversarial Robustness of Density Estimation Using the Probability Flow ODE

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Beyond their impressive sampling capabilities, score-based diffusion models offer a powerful analysis tool in the form of unbiased density estimation of a query sample under the training data distribution. In this work, we investigate the robustness of density estimation using the probability flow (PF) neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) model against gradient-based likelihood maximization attacks and the relation to sample complexity, where the compressed size of a sample is used as a measure of its complexity. We introduce and evaluate six gradient-based log-likelihood maximization attacks, including a novel reverse integration attack. Our experimental evaluations on CIFAR-10 show that density estimation using the PF ODE is robust against high-complexity, high-likelihood attacks, and that in some cases adversarial samples are semantically meaningful, as expected from a robust estimator.