Flexible models for probability distributions are an essential ingredient in many machine learning tasks. We develop and investigate a new class of probability distributions, which we call a Squared Neural Family (SNEFY), formed by squaring the 2-norm of a neural network and normalising it with respect to a base measure. Following the reasoning similar to the well established connections between infinitely wide neural networks and Gaussian processes, we show that SNEFYs admit closed form normalising constants in many cases of interest, thereby resulting in flexible yet fully tractable density models. SNEFYs strictly generalise classical exponential families, are closed under conditioning, and have tractable marginal distributions. Their utility is illustrated on a variety of density estimation, conditional density estimation, and density estimation with missing data tasks.

A fundamental problem of causal discovery is cause-effect inference, learning the correct causal direction between two random variables. Significant progress has been made through modelling the effect as a function of its cause and a noise term, which allows us to leverage assumptions about the generating function class. The recently introduced heteroscedastic location-scale noise functional models (LSNMs) combine expressive power with identifiability guarantees. LSNM model selection based on maximizing likelihood achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, when the noise distributions are correctly specified. However, through an extensive empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that the accuracy deteriorates sharply when the form of the noise distribution is misspecified by the user. Our analysis shows that the failure occurs mainly when the conditional variance in the anti-causal direction is smaller than that in the causal direction. As an alternative, we find that causal model selection through residual independence testing is much more robust to noise misspecification and misleading conditional variance.

Adaptive importance sampling (AIS) algorithms are widely used to approximate expectations with respect to complicated target probability distributions. When the target has heavy tails, existing AIS algorithms can provide inconsistent estimators or exhibit slow convergence, as they often neglect the target's tail behaviour. To avoid this pitfall, we propose an AIS algorithm that approximates the target by Student-t proposal distributions. We adapt location and scale parameters by matching the escort moments - which are defined even for heavy-tailed distributions - of the target and the proposal. These updates minimize the $\alpha$-divergence between the target and the proposal, thereby connecting with variational inference. We then show that the $\alpha$-divergence can be approximated by a generalized notion of effective sample size and leverage this new perspective to adapt the tail parameter with Bayesian optimization. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through applications to synthetic targets and a Bayesian Student-t regression task on a real example with clinical trial data.

Normalizing Flows are generative models that directly maximize the likelihood. Previously, the design of normalizing flows was largely constrained by the need for analytical invertibility. We overcome this constraint by a training procedure that uses an efficient estimator for the gradient of the change of variables formula. This enables any dimension-preserving neural network to serve as a generative model through maximum likelihood training. Our approach allows placing the emphasis on tailoring inductive biases precisely to the task at hand. Specifically, we achieve excellent results in molecule generation benchmarks utilizing $E(n)$-equivariant networks. Moreover, our method is competitive in an inverse problem benchmark, while employing off-the-shelf ResNet architectures.

The assumption of conditional independence among observed variables, primarily used in the Variational Autoencoder (VAE) decoder modeling, has limitations when dealing with high-dimensional datasets or complex correlation structures among observed variables. To address this issue, we introduced the Cramer-Wold distance regularization, which can be computed in a closed-form, to facilitate joint distributional learning for high-dimensional datasets. Additionally, we introduced a two-step learning method to enable flexible prior modeling and improve the alignment between the aggregated posterior and the prior distribution. Furthermore, we provide theoretical distinctions from existing methods within this category. To evaluate the synthetic data generation performance of our proposed approach, we conducted experiments on high-dimensional datasets with multiple categorical variables. Given that many readily available datasets and data science applications involve such datasets, our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methodology.

We demonstrate the versatility of mean-field games (MFGs) as a mathematical framework for explaining, enhancing, and designing generative models. In generative flows, a Lagrangian formulation is used where each particle (generated sample) aims to minimize a loss function over its simulated path. The loss, however, is dependent on the paths of other particles, which leads to a competition among the population of particles. The asymptotic behavior of this competition yields a mean-field game. We establish connections between MFGs and major classes of generative flows and diffusions including continuous-time normalizing flows, score-based generative models (SGM), and Wasserstein gradient flows. Furthermore, we study the mathematical properties of each generative model by studying their associated MFG's optimality condition, which is a set of coupled forward-backward nonlinear partial differential equations. The mathematical structure described by the MFG optimality conditions identifies the inductive biases of generative flows. We investigate the well-posedness and structure of normalizing flows, unravel the mathematical structure of SGMs, and derive a MFG formulation of Wasserstein gradient flows. From an algorithmic perspective, the optimality conditions yields Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) regularizers for enhanced training of generative models. In particular, we propose and demonstrate an HJB-regularized SGM with improved performance over standard SGMs. We present this framework as an MFG laboratory which serves as a platform for revealing new avenues of experimentation and invention of generative models.

This article introduces an advanced analytical approach for predicting backorders in inventory management. Backorder refers to an order that cannot be immediately fulfilled due to stock depletion. Multiple classification techniques, including Balanced Bagging Classifiers, Fuzzy Logic, Variational Autoencoder - Generative Adversarial Networks, and Multi-layer Perceptron classifiers, are assessed in this work using performance evaluation metrics such as ROC-AUC and PR-AUC. Moreover, this work incorporates a profit function and misclassification costs, considering the financial implications and costs associated with inventory management and backorder handling. The study suggests that a combination of modeling approaches, including ensemble techniques and VAE, can effectively address imbalanced datasets in inventory management, emphasizing interpretability and reducing false positives and false negatives. This research contributes to the advancement of predictive analytics and offers valuable insights for future investigations in backorder forecasting and inventory control optimization for decision-making.

Driving style is usually used to characterize driving behavior for a driver or a group of drivers. However, it remains unclear how one individual's driving style shares certain common grounds with other drivers. Our insight is that driving behavior is a sequence of responses to the weighted mixture of latent driving styles that are shareable within and between individuals. To this end, this paper develops a hierarchical latent model to learn the relationship between driving behavior and driving styles. We first propose a fragment-based approach to represent complex sequential driving behavior, allowing for sufficiently representing driving behavior in a low-dimension feature space. Then, we provide an analytical formulation for the interaction of driving behavior and shareable driving style with a hierarchical latent model by introducing the mechanism of Dirichlet allocation. Our developed model is finally validated and verified with 100 drivers in naturalistic driving settings with urban and highways. Experimental results reveal that individuals share driving styles within and between them. We also analyzed the influence of personalities (e.g., age, gender, and driving experience) on driving styles and found that a naturally aggressive driver would not always keep driving aggressively (i.e., could behave calmly sometimes) but with a higher proportion of aggressiveness than other types of drivers.

This paper proposes a new cognitive model, acting as the main component of an AGI agent. The model is introduced in its mature intelligence state, and as an extension of previous models, DENN, and especially AKREM, by including operational models (frames/classes) and will. This model's core assumption is that cognition is about operating on accumulated knowledge, with the guidance of an appropriate will. Also, we assume that the actions, part of knowledge, are learning to be aligned with will, during the evolution phase that precedes the mature intelligence state. In addition, this model is mainly based on the duality principle in every known intelligent aspect, such as exhibiting both top-down and bottom-up model learning, generalization verse specialization, and more. Furthermore, a holistic approach is advocated for AGI designing, and cognition under constraints or efficiency is proposed, in the form of reusability and simplicity. Finally, reaching this mature state is described via a cognitive evolution from infancy to adulthood, utilizing a consolidation principle. The final product of this cognitive model is a dynamic operational memory of models and instances. Lastly, some examples and preliminary ideas for the evolution phase to reach the mature state are presented.

The Laplacian-constrained Gaussian Markov Random Field (LGMRF) is a common multivariate statistical model for learning a weighted sparse dependency graph from given data. This graph learning problem can be formulated as a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the precision matrix, subject to Laplacian structural constraints, with a sparsity-inducing penalty term. This paper aims to solve this learning problem accurately and efficiently. First, since the commonly used $\ell_1$-norm penalty is inappropriate in this setting and may lead to a complete graph, we employ the nonconvex minimax concave penalty (MCP), which promotes sparse solutions with lower estimation bias. Second, as opposed to existing first-order methods for this problem, we develop a second-order proximal Newton approach to obtain an efficient solver, utilizing several algorithmic features, such as using Conjugate Gradients, preconditioning, and splitting to active/free sets. Numerical experiments demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method in terms of both computational complexity and graph learning accuracy compared to existing methods.