Consider learning a generative model for time-series data. The sequential setting poses a unique challenge: Not only should the generator capture the conditional dynamics of (stepwise) transitions, but its open-loop rollouts should also preserve the joint distribution of (multi-step) trajectories. On one hand, autoregressive models trained by MLE allow learning and computing explicit transition distributions, but suffer from compounding error during rollouts. On the other hand, adversarial models based on GAN training alleviate such exposure bias, but transitions are implicit and hard to assess. In this work, we study a generative framework that seeks to combine the strengths of both: Motivated by a moment-matching objective to mitigate compounding error, we optimize a local (but forward-looking) transition policy, where the reinforcement signal is provided by a global (but stepwise-decomposable) energy model trained by contrastive estimation. At training, the two components are learned cooperatively, avoiding the instabilities typical of adversarial objectives. At inference, the learned policy serves as the generator for iterative sampling, and the learned energy serves as a trajectory-level measure for evaluating sample quality. By expressly training a policy to imitate sequential behavior of time-series features in a dataset, this approach embodies "generation by imitation". Theoretically, we illustrate the correctness of this formulation and the consistency of the algorithm. Empirically, we evaluate its ability to generate predictively useful samples from real-world datasets, verifying that it performs at the standard of existing benchmarks.

We present a novel method for tuning the regularization hyper-parameter, $\lambda$, of a ridge regression that is faster to compute than leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) while yielding estimates of the regression parameters of equal, or particularly in the setting of sparse covariates, superior quality to those obtained by minimising the LOOCV risk. The LOOCV risk can suffer from multiple and bad local minima for finite $n$ and thus requires the specification of a set of candidate $\lambda$, which can fail to provide good solutions. In contrast, we show that the proposed method is guaranteed to find a unique optimal solution for large enough $n$, under relatively mild conditions, without requiring the specification of any difficult to determine hyper-parameters. This is based on a Bayesian formulation of ridge regression that we prove to have a unimodal posterior for large enough $n$, allowing for both the optimal $\lambda$ and the regression coefficients to be jointly learned within an iterative expectation maximization (EM) procedure. Importantly, we show that by utilizing an appropriate preprocessing step, a single iteration of the main EM loop can be implemented in $O(\min(n, p))$ operations, for input data with $n$ rows and $p$ columns. In contrast, evaluating a single value of $\lambda$ using fast LOOCV costs $O(n \min(n, p))$ operations when using the same preprocessing. This advantage amounts to an asymptotic improvement of a factor of $l$ for $l$ candidate values for $\lambda$ (in the regime $q, p \in O(\sqrt{n})$ where $q$ is the number of regression targets).

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference for simulators with implicit likelihoods. But when we are primarily interested in the quality of predictive simulations, or when the model cannot exactly reproduce the observed data (i.e., is misspecified), targeting the Bayesian posterior may be overly restrictive. Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) aims to robustify inference for (misspecified) simulator models, replacing the likelihood-function with a cost function that evaluates the goodness of parameters relative to data. However, GBI methods generally require running multiple simulations to estimate the cost function at each parameter value during inference, making the approach computationally infeasible for even moderately complex simulators. Here, we propose amortized cost estimation (ACE) for GBI to address this challenge: We train a neural network to approximate the cost function, which we define as the expected distance between simulations produced by a parameter and observed data. The trained network can then be used with MCMC to infer GBI posteriors for any observation without running additional simulations. We show that, on several benchmark tasks, ACE accurately predicts cost and provides predictive simulations that are closer to synthetic observations than other SBI methods, especially for misspecified simulators. Finally, we apply ACE to infer parameters of the Hodgkin-Huxley model given real intracellular recordings from the Allen Cell Types Database. ACE identifies better data-matching parameters while being an order of magnitude more simulation-efficient than a standard SBI method. In summary, ACE combines the strengths of SBI methods and GBI to perform robust and simulation-amortized inference for scientific simulators.

Partial differential equations (PDEs) are important tools to model physical systems and including them into machine learning models is an important way of incorporating physical knowledge. Given any system of linear PDEs with constant coefficients, we propose a family of Gaussian process (GP) priors, which we call EPGP, such that all realizations are exact solutions of this system. We apply the Ehrenpreis-Palamodov fundamental principle, which works as a non-linear Fourier transform, to construct GP kernels mirroring standard spectral methods for GPs. Our approach can infer probable solutions of linear PDE systems from any data such as noisy measurements, or pointwise defined initial and boundary conditions. Constructing EPGP-priors is algorithmic, generally applicable, and comes with a sparse version (S-EPGP) that learns the relevant spectral frequencies and works better for big data sets. We demonstrate our approach on three families of systems of PDEs, the heat equation, wave equation, and Maxwell's equations, where we improve upon the state of the art in computation time and precision, in some experiments by several orders of magnitude.

The ability to accurately predict others' behavior is central to the safety and efficiency of interactive robotics. Unfortunately, robots often lack access to key information on which these predictions may hinge, such as other agents' goals, attention, and willingness to cooperate. Dual control theory addresses this challenge by treating unknown parameters of a predictive model as stochastic hidden states and inferring their values at runtime using information gathered during system operation. While able to optimally and automatically trade off exploration and exploitation, dual control is computationally intractable for general interactive motion planning. In this paper, we present a novel algorithmic approach to enable active uncertainty reduction for interactive motion planning based on the implicit dual control paradigm. Our approach relies on sampling-based approximation of stochastic dynamic programming, leading to a model predictive control problem that can be readily solved by real-time gradient-based optimization methods. The resulting policy is shown to preserve the dual control effect for a broad class of predictive models with both continuous and categorical uncertainty. To ensure the safe operation of the interacting agents, we use a runtime safety filter (also referred to as a "shielding" scheme), which overrides the robot's dual control policy with a safety fallback strategy when a safety-critical event is imminent. We then augment the dual control framework with an improved variant of the recently proposed shielding-aware robust planning scheme, which proactively balances the nominal planning performance with the risk of high-cost emergency maneuvers triggered by low-probability agent behaviors. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach with both simulated driving studies and hardware experiments using 1/10 scale autonomous vehicles.

Time-dependent data often exhibit characteristics, such as non-stationarity and heavy-tailed errors, that would be inappropriate to model with the typical assumptions used in popular models. Thus, more flexible approaches are required to be able to accommodate such issues. To this end, we propose a Bayesian mixture of student-$t$ processes with an overall-local scale structure for the covariance. Moreover, we use a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler in order to perform online inference as data arrive in real-time. We demonstrate the superiority of our proposed approach compared to typical Gaussian process-based models on real-world data sets in order to prove the necessity of using mixtures of student-$t$ processes.

By now Bayesian methods are routinely used in practice for solving inverse problems. In inverse problems the parameter or signal of interest is observed only indirectly, as an image of a given map, and the observations are typically further corrupted with noise. Bayes offers a natural way to regularize these problems via the prior distribution and provides a probabilistic solution, quantifying the remaining uncertainty in the problem. However, the computational costs of standard, sampling based Bayesian approaches can be overly large in such complex models. Therefore, in practice variational Bayes is becoming increasingly popular. Nevertheless, the theoretical understanding of these methods is still relatively limited, especially in context of inverse problems. In our analysis we investigate variational Bayesian methods for Gaussian process priors to solve linear inverse problems. We consider both mildly and severely ill-posed inverse problems and work with the popular inducing variables variational Bayes approach proposed by Titsias in 2009. We derive posterior contraction rates for the variational posterior in general settings and show that the minimax estimation rate can be attained by correctly tunned procedures. As specific examples we consider a collection of inverse problems including the heat equation, Volterra operator and Radon transform and inducing variable methods based on population and empirical spectral features.

The fusion of causal models with deep learning introducing increasingly intricate data sets, such as the causal associations within images or between textual components, has surfaced as a focal research area. Nonetheless, the broadening of original causal concepts and theories to such complex, non-statistical data has been met with serious challenges. In response, our study proposes redefinitions of causal data into three distinct categories from the standpoint of causal structure and representation: definite data, semi-definite data, and indefinite data. Definite data chiefly pertains to statistical data used in conventional causal scenarios, while semi-definite data refers to a spectrum of data formats germane to deep learning, including time-series, images, text, and others. Indefinite data is an emergent research sphere inferred from the progression of data forms by us. To comprehensively present these three data paradigms, we elaborate on their formal definitions, differences manifested in datasets, resolution pathways, and development of research. We summarize key tasks and achievements pertaining to definite and semi-definite data from myriad research undertakings, present a roadmap for indefinite data, beginning with its current research conundrums. Lastly, we classify and scrutinize the key datasets presently utilized within these three paradigms.

We study the asymptotic learning rates under linear and log-linear combination rules of belief vectors in a distributed hypothesis testing problem. We show that under both combination strategies, agents are able to learn the truth exponentially fast, with a faster rate under log-linear fusion. We examine the gap between the rates in terms of network connectivity and information diversity. We also provide closed-form expressions for special cases involving federated architectures and exchangeable networks.

In this paper, we focus on the data-driven discovery of a general second-order particle-based model that contains many state-of-the-art models for modeling the aggregation and collective behavior of interacting agents of similar size and body type. This model takes the form of a high-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations parameterized by two interaction kernels that appraise the alignment of positions and velocities. We propose a Gaussian Process-based approach to this problem, where the unknown model parameters are marginalized by using two independent Gaussian Process (GP) priors on latent interaction kernels constrained to dynamics and observational data. This results in a nonparametric model for interacting dynamical systems that accounts for uncertainty quantification. We also develop acceleration techniques to improve scalability. Moreover, we perform a theoretical analysis to interpret the methodology and investigate the conditions under which the kernels can be recovered. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on various prototype systems, including the selection of the order of the systems and the types of interactions. In particular, we present applications to modeling two real-world fish motion datasets that display flocking and milling patterns up to 248 dimensions. Despite the use of small data sets, the GP-based approach learns an effective representation of the nonlinear dynamics in these spaces and outperforms competitor methods.