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 Uncertainty


Stochastic Interpolants: A Unifying Framework for Flows and Diffusions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.


A Survey of Decision-Theoretic Approaches for Robotic Environmental Monitoring

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Robotics has dramatically increased our ability to gather data about our environments, creating an opportunity for the robotics and algorithms communities to collaborate on novel solutions to environmental monitoring problems. To understand a taxonomy of problems and methods in this realm, we present the first comprehensive survey of decision-theoretic approaches that enable efficient sampling of various environmental processes. We investigate representations for different environments, followed by a discussion of using these presentations to solve tasks of interest, such as learning, localization, and monitoring. To efficiently implement the tasks, decision-theoretic optimization algorithms consider: (1) where to take measurements from, (2) which tasks to be assigned, (3) what samples to collect, (4) when to collect samples, (5) how to learn environment; and (6) who to communicate. Finally, we summarize our study and present the challenges and opportunities in robotic environmental monitoring.


Numerically Stable Sparse Gaussian Processes via Minimum Separation using Cover Trees

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Gaussian processes are frequently deployed as part of larger machine learning and decision-making systems, for instance in geospatial modeling, Bayesian optimization, or in latent Gaussian models. Within a system, the Gaussian process model needs to perform in a stable and reliable manner to ensure it interacts correctly with other parts of the system. In this work, we study the numerical stability of scalable sparse approximations based on inducing points. To do so, we first review numerical stability, and illustrate typical situations in which Gaussian process models can be unstable. Building on stability theory originally developed in the interpolation literature, we derive sufficient and in certain cases necessary conditions on the inducing points for the computations performed to be numerically stable. For low-dimensional tasks such as geospatial modeling, we propose an automated method for computing inducing points satisfying these conditions. This is done via a modification of the cover tree data structure, which is of independent interest. We additionally propose an alternative sparse approximation for regression with a Gaussian likelihood which trades off a small amount of performance to further improve stability. We provide illustrative examples showing the relationship between stability of calculations and predictive performance of inducing point methods on spatial tasks.


Innovation and Word Usage Patterns in Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this study, we delve into the dynamic landscape of machine learning research evolution. Initially, through the utilization of Latent Dirichlet Allocation, we discern pivotal themes and fundamental concepts that have emerged within the realm of machine learning. Subsequently, we undertake a comprehensive analysis to track the evolutionary trajectories of these identified themes. To quantify the novelty and divergence of research contributions, we employ the Kullback-Leibler Divergence metric. This statistical measure serves as a proxy for ``surprise'', indicating the extent of differentiation between the content of academic papers and the subsequent developments in research. By amalgamating these insights, we gain the ability to ascertain the pivotal roles played by prominent researchers and the significance of specific academic venues (periodicals and conferences) within the machine learning domain.


TS-Diffusion: Generating Highly Complex Time Series with Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While current generative models have achieved promising performances in time-series synthesis, they either make strong assumptions on the data format (e.g., regularities) or rely on pre-processing approaches (e.g., interpolations) to simplify the raw data. In this work, we consider a class of time series with three common bad properties, including sampling irregularities, missingness, and large feature-temporal dimensions, and introduce a general model, TS-Diffusion, to process such complex time series. Our model consists of three parts under the framework of point process. The first part is an encoder of the neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) that converts time series into dense representations, with the jump technique to capture sampling irregularities and self-attention mechanism to handle missing values; The second component of TS-Diffusion is a diffusion model that learns from the representation of time series. These time-series representations can have a complex distribution because of their high dimensions; The third part is a decoder of another ODE that generates time series with irregularities and missing values given their representations. We have conducted extensive experiments on multiple time-series datasets, demonstrating that TS-Diffusion achieves excellent results on both conventional and complex time series and significantly outperforms previous baselines.


A multi-modal approach to continuous material identification through tactile sensing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Tactile sensing has recently been used in robotics for object identification, grasping, and material recognition. Most material recognition approaches use vibration information from a tactile exploration, typically above one second long, to identify the material. This work proposes a tactile multi-modal (vibration and thermal) material identification approach based on recursive Bayesian estimation. Through the frequency response of the vibration induced by the material and thermal features, like an estimate of the thermal power loss of the finger, we show that it is possible to identify materials in less than half a second. Moreover, a comparison between the use of vibration only and multi-modal identification shows that both recognition time and classification errors are reduced by adding thermal information.


Multi-view 3D Object Reconstruction and Uncertainty Modelling with Neural Shape Prior

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

3D object reconstruction is important for semantic scene understanding. It is challenging to reconstruct detailed 3D shapes from monocular images directly due to a lack of depth information, occlusion and noise. Most current methods generate deterministic object models without any awareness of the uncertainty of the reconstruction. We tackle this problem by leveraging a neural object representation which learns an object shape distribution from large dataset of 3d object models and maps it into a latent space. We propose a method to model uncertainty as part of the representation and define an uncertainty-aware encoder which generates latent codes with uncertainty directly from individual input images. Further, we propose a method to propagate the uncertainty in the latent code to SDF values and generate a 3d object mesh with local uncertainty for each mesh component. Finally, we propose an incremental fusion method under a Bayesian framework to fuse the latent codes from multi-view observations. We evaluate the system in both synthetic and real datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of uncertainty-based fusion to improve 3D object reconstruction accuracy.


Spatial Process Approximations: Assessing Their Necessity

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In spatial statistics and machine learning, the kernel matrix plays a pivotal role in prediction, classification, and maximum likelihood estimation. A thorough examination reveals that for large sample sizes, the kernel matrix becomes ill-conditioned, provided the sampling locations are fairly evenly distributed. This condition poses significant challenges to numerical algorithms used in prediction and estimation computations and necessitates an approximation to prediction and the Gaussian likelihood. A review of current methodologies for managing large spatial data indicates that some fail to address this ill-conditioning problem. Such ill-conditioning often results in low-rank approximations of the stochastic processes. This paper introduces various optimality criteria and provides solutions for each.


Nonparametric modeling of the composite effect of multiple nutrients on blood glucose dynamics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In biomedical applications it is often necessary to estimate a physiological response to a treatment consisting of multiple components, and learn the separate effects of the components in addition to the joint effect. Here, we extend existing probabilistic nonparametric approaches to explicitly address this problem. We also develop a new convolution-based model for composite treatment-response curves that is more biologically interpretable. We validate our models by estimating the impact of carbohydrate and fat in meals on blood glucose. By differentiating treatment components, incorporating their dosages, and sharing statistical information across patients via a hierarchical multi-output Gaussian process, our method improves prediction accuracy over existing approaches, and allows us to interpret the different effects of carbohydrates and fat on the overall glucose response.


Looping in the Human: Collaborative and Explainable Bayesian Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Like many optimizers, Bayesian optimization often falls short of gaining user trust due to opacity. While attempts have been made to develop human-centric optimizers, they typically assume user knowledge is well-specified and error-free, employing users mainly as supervisors of the optimization process. We relax these assumptions and propose a more balanced human-AI partnership with our Collaborative and Explainable Bayesian Optimization (CoExBO) framework. Instead of explicitly requiring a user to provide a knowledge model, CoExBO employs preference learning to seamlessly integrate human insights into the optimization, resulting in algorithmic suggestions that resonate with user preference. CoExBO explains its candidate selection every iteration to foster trust, empowering users with a clearer grasp of the optimization. Furthermore, CoExBO offers a no-harm guarantee, allowing users to make mistakes; even with extreme adversarial interventions, the algorithm converges asymptotically to a vanilla Bayesian optimization. We validate CoExBO's efficacy through human-AI teaming experiments in lithium-ion battery design, highlighting substantial improvements over conventional methods.