Unobserved confounding is common in many applications, making causal inference from observational data challenging. As a remedy, causal sensitivity analysis is an important tool to draw causal conclusions under unobserved confounding with mathematical guarantees. In this paper, we propose NeuralCSA, a neural framework for generalized causal sensitivity analysis. Unlike previous work, our framework is compatible with (i) a large class of sensitivity models, including the marginal sensitivity model, f-sensitivity models, and Rosenbaum's sensitivity model; (ii) different treatment types (i.e., binary and continuous); and (iii) different causal queries, including (conditional) average treatment effects and simultaneous effects on multiple outcomes. The generality of \frameworkname is achieved by learning a latent distribution shift that corresponds to a treatment intervention using two conditional normalizing flows. We provide theoretical guarantees that NeuralCSA is able to infer valid bounds on the causal query of interest and also demonstrate this empirically using both simulated and real-world data.

Standard regularized training procedures correspond to maximizing a posterior distribution over parameters, known as maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. However, model parameters are of interest only insomuch as they combine with the functional form of a model to provide a function that can make good predictions. Moreover, the most likely parameters under the parameter posterior do not generally correspond to the most likely function induced by the parameter posterior. In fact, we can re-parametrize a model such that any setting of parameters can maximize the parameter posterior. As an alternative, we investigate the benefits and drawbacks of directly estimating the most likely function implied by the model and the data. We show that this procedure leads to pathological solutions when using neural networks and prove conditions under which the procedure is well-behaved, as well as a scalable approximation. Under these conditions, we find that function-space MAP estimation can lead to flatter minima, better generalization, and improved robustness to overfitting.

This study proposes the first Bayesian approach for learning high-dimensional linear Bayesian networks. The proposed approach iteratively estimates each element of the topological ordering from backward and its parent using the inverse of a partial covariance matrix. The proposed method successfully recovers the underlying structure when Bayesian regularization for the inverse covariance matrix with unequal shrinkage is applied. Specifically, it shows that the number of samples $n = \Omega( d_M^2 \log p)$ and $n = \Omega(d_M^2 p^{2/m})$ are sufficient for the proposed algorithm to learn linear Bayesian networks with sub-Gaussian and 4m-th bounded-moment error distributions, respectively, where $p$ is the number of nodes and $d_M$ is the maximum degree of the moralized graph. The theoretical findings are supported by extensive simulation studies including real data analysis. Furthermore the proposed method is demonstrated to outperform state-of-the-art frequentist approaches, such as the BHLSM, LISTEN, and TD algorithms in synthetic data.

In the field of equation learning, exhaustively considering all possible equations derived from a basis function dictionary is infeasible. Sparse regression and greedy algorithms have emerged as popular approaches to tackle this challenge. However, the presence of multicollinearity poses difficulties for sparse regression techniques, and greedy steps may inadvertently exclude terms of the true equation, leading to reduced identification accuracy. In this article, we present an approach that strikes a balance between comprehensiveness and efficiency in equation learning. Inspired by stepwise regression, our approach combines the coefficient of determination, $R^2$, and the Bayesian model evidence, $p(\boldsymbol y|\mathcal M)$, in a novel way. Our procedure is characterized by a comprehensive search with just a minor reduction of the model space at each iteration step. With two flavors of our approach and the adoption of $p(\boldsymbol y|\mathcal M)$ for bi-directional stepwise regression, we present a total of three new avenues for equation learning. Through three extensive numerical experiments involving random polynomials and dynamical systems, we compare our approach against four state-of-the-art methods and two standard approaches. The results demonstrate that our comprehensive search approach surpasses all other methods in terms of identification accuracy. In particular, the second flavor of our approach establishes an efficient overfitting penalty solely based on $R^2$, which achieves highest rates of exact equation recovery.

Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from sequential simulation using neural network-based conditional density estimators by minimizing a specific loss function. The SNPE method proposed by Lueckmann et al. (2017) used a calibration kernel to boost the sample weights around the observed data, resulting in a concentrated loss function. However, the use of calibration kernels may increase the variances of both the empirical loss and its gradient, making the training inefficient. To improve the stability of SNPE, this paper proposes to use an adaptive calibration kernel and several variance reduction techniques. The proposed method greatly speeds up the process of training, and provides a better approximation of the posterior than the original SNPE method and some existing competitors as confirmed by numerical experiments.

Energy-based models are a simple yet powerful class of probabilistic models, but their widespread adoption has been limited by the computational burden of training them. We propose a novel loss function called Energy Discrepancy (ED) which does not rely on the computation of scores or expensive Markov chain Monte Carlo. We show that ED approaches the explicit score matching and negative log-likelihood loss under different limits, effectively interpolating between both. Consequently, minimum ED estimation overcomes the problem of nearsightedness encountered in score-based estimation methods, while also enjoying theoretical guarantees. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that ED learns low-dimensional data distributions faster and more accurately than explicit score matching or contrastive divergence. For high-dimensional image data, we describe how the manifold hypothesis puts limitations on our approach and demonstrate the effectiveness of energy discrepancy by training the energy-based model as a prior of a variational decoder model.

The exploration-exploitation dilemma has been a central challenge in reinforcement learning (RL) with complex model classes. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, Monotonic Q-Learning with Upper Confidence Bound (MQL-UCB) for RL with general function approximation. Our key algorithmic design includes (1) a general deterministic policy-switching strategy that achieves low switching cost, (2) a monotonic value function structure with carefully controlled function class complexity, and (3) a variance-weighted regression scheme that exploits historical trajectories with high data efficiency. MQL-UCB achieves minimax optimal regret of $\tilde{O}(d\sqrt{HK})$ when $K$ is sufficiently large and near-optimal policy switching cost of $\tilde{O}(dH)$, with $d$ being the eluder dimension of the function class, $H$ being the planning horizon, and $K$ being the number of episodes. Our work sheds light on designing provably sample-efficient and deployment-efficient Q-learning with nonlinear function approximation.

Car following (CF) models are fundamental to describing traffic dynamics. However, the CF behavior of human drivers is highly stochastic and nonlinear. As a result, identifying the "best" CF model has been challenging and controversial despite decades of research. Introduction of automated vehicles has further complicated this matter as their CF controllers remain proprietary, though their behavior appears different than human drivers. This paper develops a stochastic learning approach to integrate multiple CF models, rather than relying on a single model. The framework is based on approximate Bayesian computation that probabilistically concatenates a pool of CF models based on their relative likelihood of describing observed behavior. The approach, while data-driven, retains physical tractability and interpretability. Evaluation results using two datasets show that the proposed approach can better reproduce vehicle trajectories for both human-driven and automated vehicles than any single CF model considered.

Electroanatomical mapping is a technique used in cardiology to create a detailed 3D map of the electrical activity in the heart. It is useful for diagnosis, treatment planning and real time guidance in cardiac ablation procedures to treat arrhythmias like atrial fibrillation. A probabilistic machine learning model trained on a library of CT/MRI scans of the heart can be used during electroanatomical mapping to generate a patient-specific 3D model of the chamber being mapped. The use of probabilistic machine learning models under a Bayesian framework provides a way to quantify uncertainty in results and provide a natural framework of interpretability of the model. Here we introduce a Bayesian approach to surface reconstruction of cardiac chamber models from a sparse 3D point cloud data acquired during electroanatomical mapping. We show how probabilistic graphical models trained on segmented CT/MRI data can be used to generate cardiac chamber models from few acquired locations thereby reducing procedure time and x-ray exposure. We show how they provide insight into what the neural network learns from the segmented CT/MRI images used to train the network, which provides explainability to the resulting cardiac chamber models generated by the model.

Even after fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, large language models (LLMs) can be difficult, if not impossible, to control reliably with prompts alone. We propose a new inference-time approach to enforcing syntactic and semantic constraints on the outputs of LLMs, called sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) steering. The key idea is to specify language generation tasks as posterior inference problems in a class of discrete probabilistic sequence models, and replace standard decoding with sequential Monte Carlo inference. For a computational cost similar to that of beam search, SMC can steer LLMs to solve diverse tasks, including infilling, generation under syntactic constraints, and prompt intersection. To facilitate experimentation with SMC steering, we present a probabilistic programming library, LLaMPPL, for concisely specifying new generation tasks as language model probabilistic programs, and automating steering of LLaMA-family Transformers.