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 Uncertainty


Maximum Entropy Model Correction in Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose and theoretically analyze an approach for planning with an approximate model in reinforcement learning that can reduce the adverse impact of model error. If the model is accurate enough, it accelerates the convergence to the true value function too. One of its key components is the MaxEnt Model Correction (MoCo) procedure that corrects the model's next-state distributions based on a Maximum Entropy density estimation formulation. Based on MoCo, we introduce the Model Correcting Value Iteration (MoCoVI) algorithm, and its sampled-based variant MoCoDyna. We show that MoCoVI and MoCoDyna's convergence can be much faster than the conventional model-free algorithms. Unlike traditional model-based algorithms, MoCoVI and MoCoDyna effectively utilize an approximate model and still converge to the correct value function.


Variational Bayes image restoration with compressive autoencoders

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Regularization of inverse problems is of paramount importance in computational imaging. The ability of neural networks to learn efficient image representations has been recently exploited to design powerful data-driven regularizers. While state-of-the-art plug-and-play methods rely on an implicit regularization provided by neural denoisers, alternative Bayesian approaches consider Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation in the latent space of a generative model, thus with an explicit regularization. However, state-of-the-art deep generative models require a huge amount of training data compared to denoisers. Besides, their complexity hampers the optimization of the latent MAP. In this work, we propose to use compressive autoencoders for latent estimation. These networks, which can be seen as variational autoencoders with a flexible latent prior, are smaller and easier to train than state-of-the-art generative models. We then introduce the Variational Bayes Latent Estimation (VBLE) algorithm, which performs this estimation within the framework of variational inference. This allows for fast and easy (approximate) posterior sampling. Experimental results on image datasets BSD and FFHQ demonstrate that VBLE reaches similar performance than state-of-the-art plug-and-play methods, while being able to quantify uncertainties faster than other existing posterior sampling techniques.


Stein Variational Belief Propagation for Multi-Robot Coordination

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decentralized coordination for multi-robot systems involves planning in challenging, high-dimensional spaces. The planning problem is particularly challenging in the presence of obstacles and different sources of uncertainty such as inaccurate dynamic models and sensor noise. In this paper, we introduce Stein Variational Belief Propagation (SVBP), a novel algorithm for performing inference over nonparametric marginal distributions of nodes in a graph. We apply SVBP to multi-robot coordination by modelling a robot swarm as a graphical model and performing inference for each robot. We demonstrate our algorithm on a simulated multi-robot perception task, and on a multi-robot planning task within a Model-Predictive Control (MPC) framework, on both simulated and real-world mobile robots. Our experiments show that SVBP represents multi-modal distributions better than sampling-based or Gaussian baselines, resulting in improved performance on perception and planning tasks. Furthermore, we show that SVBP's ability to represent diverse trajectories for decentralized multi-robot planning makes it less prone to deadlock scenarios than leading baselines.


Image Inpainting via Tractable Steering of Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diffusion models are the current state of the art for generating photorealistic images. Controlling the sampling process for constrained image generation tasks such as inpainting, however, remains challenging since exact conditioning on such constraints is intractable. While existing methods use various techniques to approximate the constrained posterior, this paper proposes to exploit the ability of Tractable Probabilistic Models (TPMs) to exactly and efficiently compute the constrained posterior, and to leverage this signal to steer the denoising process of diffusion models. Specifically, this paper adopts a class of expressive TPMs termed Probabilistic Circuits (PCs). Building upon prior advances, we further scale up PCs and make them capable of guiding the image generation process of diffusion models. Empirical results suggest that our approach can consistently improve the overall quality and semantic coherence of inpainted images across three natural image datasets (i.e., CelebA-HQ, ImageNet, and LSUN) with only ~10% additional computational overhead brought by the TPM. Further, with the help of an image encoder and decoder, our method can readily accept semantic constraints on specific regions of the image, which opens up the potential for more controlled image generation tasks. In addition to proposing a new framework for constrained image generation, this paper highlights the benefit of more tractable models and motivates the development of expressive TPMs.


Invariance assumptions for class distribution estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the problem of class distribution estimation under dataset shift. On the training dataset, both features and class labels are observed while on the test dataset only the features can be observed. The task then is the estimation of the distribution of the class labels, i.e. the estimation of the class prior probabilities, in the test dataset. Assumptions of invariance between the training joint distribution of features and labels and the test distribution can considerably facilitate this task. We discuss the assumptions of covariate shift, factorizable joint shift, and sparse joint shift and their implications for class distribution estimation.


Backdiff: a diffusion model for generalized transferable protein backmapping

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Coarse-grained (CG) models play a crucial role in the study of protein structures, protein thermodynamic properties, and protein conformation dynamics. Due to the information loss in the coarse-graining process, backmapping from CG to all-atom configurations is essential in many protein design and drug discovery applications when detailed atomic representations are needed for in-depth studies. Despite recent progress in data-driven backmapping approaches, devising a backmapping method that can be universally applied across various CG models and proteins remains unresolved. In this work, we propose BackDiff, a new generative model designed to achieve generalization and reliability in the protein backmapping problem. BackDiff leverages the conditional score-based diffusion model with geometric representations. Since different CG models can contain different coarse-grained sites which include selected atoms (CG atoms) and simple CG auxiliary functions of atomistic coordinates (CG auxiliary variables), we design a self-supervised training framework to adapt to different CG atoms, and constrain the diffusion sampling paths with arbitrary CG auxiliary variables as conditions. Our method facilitates end-to-end training and allows efficient sampling across different proteins and diverse CG models without the need for retraining. Comprehensive experiments over multiple popular CG models demonstrate BackDiff's superior performance to existing state-of-the-art approaches, and generalization and flexibility that these approaches cannot achieve. A pretrained BackDiff model can offer a convenient yet reliable plug-and-play solution for protein researchers, enabling them to investigate further from their own CG models.


Deployment of a Robust and Explainable Mortality Prediction Model: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study investigated the performance, explainability, and robustness of deployed artificial intelligence (AI) models in predicting mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. The first study of its kind, we found that Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) and intelligent training techniques allowed our models to maintain performance amidst significant data shifts. Our results emphasize the importance of developing robust AI models capable of matching or surpassing clinician predictions, even under challenging conditions. Our exploration of model explainability revealed that stochastic models generate more diverse and personalized explanations thereby highlighting the need for AI models that provide detailed and individualized insights in real-world clinical settings. Furthermore, we underscored the importance of quantifying uncertainty in AI models which enables clinicians to make better-informed decisions based on reliable predictions. Our study advocates for prioritizing implementation science in AI research for healthcare and ensuring that AI solutions are practical, beneficial, and sustainable in real-world clinical environments. By addressing unique challenges and complexities in healthcare settings, researchers can develop AI models that effectively improve clinical practice and patient outcomes.


Anonymous Jamming Detection in 5G with Bayesian Network Model Based Inference Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Jamming and intrusion detection are critical in 5G research, aiming to maintain reliability, prevent user experience degradation, and avoid infrastructure failure. This paper introduces an anonymous jamming detection model for 5G based on signal parameters from the protocol stacks. The system uses supervised and unsupervised learning for real-time, high-accuracy detection of jamming, including unknown types. Supervised models reach an AUC of 0.964 to 1, compared to LSTM models with an AUC of 0.923 to 1. However, the need for data annotation limits the supervised approach. To address this, an unsupervised auto-encoder-based anomaly detection is presented with an AUC of 0.987. The approach is resistant to adversarial training samples. For transparency and domain knowledge injection, a Bayesian network-based causation analysis is introduced.


Equilibrium in the Computing Continuum through Active Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Computing Continuum (CC) systems are challenged to ensure the intricate requirements of each computational tier. Given the system's scale, the Service Level Objectives (SLOs) which are expressed as these requirements, must be broken down into smaller parts that can be decentralized. We present our framework for collaborative edge intelligence enabling individual edge devices to (1) develop a causal understanding of how to enforce their SLOs, and (2) transfer knowledge to speed up the onboarding of heterogeneous devices. Through collaboration, they (3) increase the scope of SLO fulfillment. We implemented the framework and evaluated a use case in which a CC system is responsible for ensuring Quality of Service (QoS) and Quality of Experience (QoE) during video streaming. Our results showed that edge devices required only ten training rounds to ensure four SLOs; furthermore, the underlying causal structures were also rationally explainable. The addition of new types of devices can be done a posteriori, the framework allowed them to reuse existing models, even though the device type had been unknown. Finally, rebalancing the load within a device cluster allowed individual edge devices to recover their SLO compliance after a network failure from 22% to 89%.


Adaptive Bayesian Learning with Action and State-Dependent Signal Variance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bayesian learning, a fundamental concept in statistical inference and decision-making, has gained significant traction across various fields due to its ability to integrate prior knowledge with new information. As a robust methodology, Bayesian learning has been widely acknowledged for its adaptability and precision in handling uncertainty and updating beliefs (Gelman et al., 1995). This manuscript expands upon the Bayesian learning framework (Baley and Veldkamp, 2023) through uniquely addressing the action and state-dependent signal variance in the agents' information set. At the core of this framework is the concept that the precision of the signal received by an agent is contingent upon both the agent's action and the actual state, for example, based on their congruence or tracking error (Daly, 2018; du Sart and van Vuuren, 2021; Orlik and Veldkamp, 2014; Rompotis, 2011; Stone et al., 2013; Yang and Huang, 2022).