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 Uncertainty


Generative Models for Anomaly Detection and Design-Space Dimensionality Reduction in Shape Optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Our work presents a novel approach to shape optimization, with the twofold objective to improve the efficiency of global optimization algorithms while promoting the generation of high-quality designs during the optimization process free of geometrical anomalies. This is accomplished by reducing the number of the original design variables defining a new reduced subspace where the geometrical variance is maximized and modeling the underlying generative process of the data via probabilistic linear latent variable models such as factor analysis and probabilistic principal component analysis. We show that the data follows approximately a Gaussian distribution when the shape modification method is linear and the design variables are sampled uniformly at random, due to the direct application of the central limit theorem. The degree of anomalousness is measured in terms of Mahalanobis distance, and the paper demonstrates that abnormal designs tend to exhibit a high value of this metric. This enables the definition of a new optimization model where anomalous geometries are penalized and consequently avoided during the optimization loop. The procedure is demonstrated for hull shape optimization of the DTMB 5415 model, extensively used as an international benchmark for shape optimization problems. The global optimization routine is carried out using Bayesian optimization and the DIRECT algorithm. From the numerical results, the new framework improves the convergence of global optimization algorithms, while only designs with high-quality geometrical features are generated through the optimization routine thereby avoiding the wastage of precious computationally expensive simulations.


A rule-general abductive learning by rough sets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In real-world tasks, there is usually a large amount of unlabeled data and labeled data. The task of combining the two to learn is known as semi-supervised learning. Experts can use logical rules to label unlabeled data, but this operation is costly. The combination of perception and reasoning has a good effect in processing such semi-supervised tasks with domain knowledge. However, acquiring domain knowledge and the correction, reduction and generation of rules remain complex problems to be solved. Rough set theory is an important method for solving knowledge processing in information systems. In this paper, we propose a rule general abductive learning by rough set (RS-ABL). By transforming the target concept and sub-concepts of rules into information tables, rough set theory is used to solve the acquisition of domain knowledge and the correction, reduction and generation of rules at a lower cost. This framework can also generate more extensive negative rules to enhance the breadth of the knowledge base. Compared with the traditional semi-supervised learning method, RS-ABL has higher accuracy in dealing with semi-supervised tasks.


Planning Reliability Assurance Tests for Autonomous Vehicles

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology has become increasingly prevalent and transforms our everyday life. One important application of AI technology is the development of autonomous vehicles (AV). However, the reliability of an AV needs to be carefully demonstrated via an assurance test so that the product can be used with confidence in the field. To plan for an assurance test, one needs to determine how many AVs need to be tested for how many miles and the standard for passing the test. Existing research has made great efforts in developing reliability demonstration tests in the other fields of applications for product development and assessment. However, statistical methods have not been utilized in AV test planning. This paper aims to fill in this gap by developing statistical methods for planning AV reliability assurance tests based on recurrent events data. We explore the relationship between multiple criteria of interest in the context of planning AV reliability assurance tests. Specifically, we develop two test planning strategies based on homogeneous and non-homogeneous Poisson processes while balancing multiple objectives with the Pareto front approach. We also offer recommendations for practical use. The disengagement events data from the California Department of Motor Vehicles AV testing program is used to illustrate the proposed assurance test planning methods.


Scalable Bayesian uncertainty quantification with data-driven priors for radio interferometric imaging

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Next-generation radio interferometers like the Square Kilometer Array have the potential to unlock scientific discoveries thanks to their unprecedented angular resolution and sensitivity. One key to unlocking their potential resides in handling the deluge and complexity of incoming data. This challenge requires building radio interferometric imaging methods that can cope with the massive data sizes and provide high-quality image reconstructions with uncertainty quantification (UQ). This work proposes a method coined QuantifAI to address UQ in radio-interferometric imaging with data-driven (learned) priors for high-dimensional settings. Our model, rooted in the Bayesian framework, uses a physically motivated model for the likelihood. The model exploits a data-driven convex prior, which can encode complex information learned implicitly from simulations and guarantee the log-concavity of the posterior. We leverage probability concentration phenomena of high-dimensional log-concave posteriors that let us obtain information about the posterior, avoiding MCMC sampling techniques. We rely on convex optimisation methods to compute the MAP estimation, which is known to be faster and better scale with dimension than MCMC sampling strategies. Our method allows us to compute local credible intervals, i.e., Bayesian error bars, and perform hypothesis testing of structure on the reconstructed image. In addition, we propose a novel blazing-fast method to compute pixel-wise uncertainties at different scales. We demonstrate our method by reconstructing radio-interferometric images in a simulated setting and carrying out fast and scalable UQ, which we validate with MCMC sampling. Our method shows an improved image quality and more meaningful uncertainties than the benchmark method based on a sparsity-promoting prior. QuantifAI's source code: https://github.com/astro-informatics/QuantifAI.


Anomaly Detection via Learning-Based Sequential Controlled Sensing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we address the problem of detecting anomalies among a given set of binary processes via learning-based controlled sensing. Each process is parameterized by a binary random variable indicating whether the process is anomalous. To identify the anomalies, the decision-making agent is allowed to observe a subset of the processes at each time instant. Also, probing each process has an associated cost. Our objective is to design a sequential selection policy that dynamically determines which processes to observe at each time with the goal to minimize the delay in making the decision and the total sensing cost. We cast this problem as a sequential hypothesis testing problem within the framework of Markov decision processes. This formulation utilizes both a Bayesian log-likelihood ratio-based reward and an entropy-based reward. The problem is then solved using two approaches: 1) a deep reinforcement learning-based approach where we design both deep Q-learning and policy gradient actor-critic algorithms; and 2) a deep active inference-based approach. Using numerical experiments, we demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithms and show that our algorithms adapt to any unknown statistical dependence pattern of the processes.


Exploring the hierarchical structure of human plans via program generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human behavior is inherently hierarchical, resulting from the decomposition of a task into subtasks or an abstract action into concrete actions. However, behavior is typically measured as a sequence of actions, which makes it difficult to infer its hierarchical structure. In this paper, we explore how people form hierarchically-structured plans, using an experimental paradigm that makes hierarchical representations observable: participants create programs that produce sequences of actions in a language with explicit hierarchical structure. This task lets us test two well-established principles of human behavior: utility maximization (i.e. using fewer actions) and minimum description length (MDL; i.e. having a shorter program). We find that humans are sensitive to both metrics, but that both accounts fail to predict a qualitative feature of human-created programs, namely that people prefer programs with reuse over and above the predictions of MDL. We formalize this preference for reuse by extending the MDL account into a generative model over programs, modeling hierarchy choice as the induction of a grammar over actions. Our account can explain the preference for reuse and provides the best prediction of human behavior, going beyond simple accounts of compressibility to highlight a principle that guides hierarchical planning.


Color-Emotion Associations in Art: Fuzzy Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Art objects can evoke certain emotions. Color is a fundamental element of visual art and plays a significant role in how art is perceived. This paper introduces a novel approach to classifying emotions in art using Fuzzy Sets. We employ a fuzzy approach because it aligns well with human judgments' imprecise and subjective nature. Extensive fuzzy colors (n=120) and a broad emotional spectrum (n=10) allow for a more human-consistent and context-aware exploration of emotions inherent in paintings. First, we introduce the fuzzy color representation model. Then, at the fuzzification stage, we process the Wiki Art Dataset of paintings tagged with emotions, extracting fuzzy dominant colors linked to specific emotions. This results in fuzzy color distributions for ten emotions. Finally, we convert them back to a crisp domain, obtaining a knowledge base of color-emotion associations in primary colors. Our findings reveal strong associations between specific emotions and colors; for instance, gratitude strongly correlates with green, brown, and orange. Other noteworthy associations include brown and anger, orange with shame, yellow with happiness, and gray with fear. Using these associations and Jaccard similarity, we can find the emotions in the arbitrary untagged image. We conducted a 2AFC experiment involving human subjects to evaluate the proposed method. The average hit rate of 0.77 indicates a significant correlation between the method's predictions and human perception. The proposed method is simple to adapt to art painting retrieval systems. The study contributes to the theoretical understanding of color-emotion associations in art, offering valuable insights for various practical applications besides art, like marketing, design, and psychology.


On Exact Inversion of DPM-Solvers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) are a key component in modern generative models. DPM-solvers have achieved reduced latency and enhanced quality significantly, but have posed challenges to find the exact inverse (i.e., finding the initial noise from the given image). Here we investigate the exact inversions for DPM-solvers and propose algorithms to perform them when samples are generated by the first-order as well as higher-order DPM-solvers. For each explicit denoising step in DPM-solvers, we formulated the inversions using implicit methods such as gradient descent or forward step method to ensure the robustness to large classifier-free guidance unlike the prior approach using fixed-point iteration. Experimental results demonstrated that our proposed exact inversion methods significantly reduced the error of both image and noise reconstructions, greatly enhanced the ability to distinguish invisible watermarks and well prevented unintended background changes consistently during image editing. Project page: \url{https://smhongok.github.io/inv-dpm.html}.


Uncertainty in Graph Contrastive Learning with Bayesian Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Graph contrastive learning has shown great promise when labeled data is scarce, but large unlabeled datasets are available. However, it often does not take uncertainty estimation into account. We show that a variational Bayesian neural network approach can be used to improve not only the uncertainty estimates but also the downstream performance on semi-supervised node-classification tasks. Moreover, we propose a new measure of uncertainty for contrastive learning, that is based on the disagreement in likelihood due to different positive samples.


Active Learning and Bayesian Optimization: a Unified Perspective to Learn with a Goal

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Science and Engineering applications are typically associated with expensive optimization problem to identify optimal design solutions and states of the system of interest. Bayesian optimization and active learning compute surrogate models through efficient adaptive sampling schemes to assist and accelerate this search task toward a given optimization goal. Both those methodologies are driven by specific infill/learning criteria which quantify the utility with respect to the set goal of evaluating the objective function for unknown combinations of optimization variables. While the two fields have seen an exponential growth in popularity in the past decades, their dualism and synergy have received relatively little attention to date. This paper discusses and formalizes the synergy between Bayesian optimization and active learning as symbiotic adaptive sampling methodologies driven by common principles. In particular, we demonstrate this unified perspective through the formalization of the analogy between the Bayesian infill criteria and active learning criteria as driving principles of both the goal-driven procedures. To support our original perspective, we propose a general classification of adaptive sampling techniques to highlight similarities and differences between the vast families of adaptive sampling, active learning, and Bayesian optimization. Accordingly, the synergy is demonstrated mapping the Bayesian infill criteria with the active learning criteria, and is formalized for searches informed by both a single information source and multiple levels of fidelity. In addition, we provide guidelines to apply those learning criteria investigating the performance of different Bayesian schemes for a variety of benchmark problems to highlight benefits and limitations over mathematical properties that characterize real-world applications.