In the past couple of years, various approaches to representing and quantifying different types of predictive uncertainty in machine learning, notably in the setting of classification, have been proposed on the basis of second-order probability distributions, i.e., predictions in the form of distributions on probability distributions. A completely conclusive solution has not yet been found, however, as shown by recent criticisms of commonly used uncertainty measures associated with second-order distributions, identifying undesirable theoretical properties of these measures. In light of these criticisms, we propose a set of formal criteria that meaningful uncertainty measures for predictive uncertainty based on second-order distributions should obey. Moreover, we provide a general framework for developing uncertainty measures to account for these criteria, and offer an instantiation based on the Wasserstein distance, for which we prove that all criteria are satisfied.

Meta-learning is a powerful approach that exploits historical data to quickly solve new tasks from the same distribution. In the low-data regime, methods based on the closed-form posterior of Gaussian processes (GP) together with Bayesian optimization have achieved high performance. However, these methods are either computationally expensive or introduce assumptions that hinder a principled propagation of uncertainty between task models. This may disrupt the balance between exploration and exploitation during optimization. In this paper, we develop ScaML-GP, a modular GP model for meta-learning that is scalable in the number of tasks. Our core contribution is a carefully designed multi-task kernel that enables hierarchical training and task scalability. Conditioning ScaML-GP on the meta-data exposes its modular nature yielding a test-task prior that combines the posteriors of meta-task GPs. In synthetic and real-world meta-learning experiments, we demonstrate that ScaML-GP can learn efficiently both with few and many meta-tasks.

Regularization in modern machine learning is crucial, and it can take various forms in algorithmic design: training set, model family, error function, regularization terms, and optimizations. In particular, the learning rate, which can be interpreted as a temperature-like parameter within the statistical mechanics of learning, plays a crucial role in neural network training. Indeed, many widely adopted training strategies basically just define the decay of the learning rate over time. This process can be interpreted as decreasing a temperature, using either a global learning rate (for the entire model) or a learning rate that varies for each parameter. This paper proposes TempBalance, a straightforward yet effective layer-wise learning rate method. TempBalance is based on Heavy-Tailed Self-Regularization (HT-SR) Theory, an approach which characterizes the implicit self-regularization of different layers in trained models. We demonstrate the efficacy of using HT-SR-motivated metrics to guide the scheduling and balancing of temperature across all network layers during model training, resulting in improved performance during testing. We implement TempBalance on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, SVHN, and TinyImageNet datasets using ResNets, VGGs, and WideResNets with various depths and widths. Our results show that TempBalance significantly outperforms ordinary SGD and carefully-tuned spectral norm regularization. We also show that TempBalance outperforms a number of state-of-the-art optimizers and learning rate schedulers.

Phylogenetic inference, grounded in molecular evolution models, is essential for understanding the evolutionary relationships in biological data. Accounting for the uncertainty of phylogenetic tree variables, which include tree topologies and evolutionary distances on branches, is crucial for accurately inferring species relationships from molecular data and tasks requiring variable marginalization. Variational Bayesian methods are key to developing scalable, practical models; however, it remains challenging to conduct phylogenetic inference without restricting the combinatorially vast number of possible tree topologies. In this work, we introduce a novel, fully differentiable formulation of phylogenetic inference that leverages a unique representation of topological distributions in continuous geometric spaces. Through practical considerations on design spaces and control variates for gradient estimations, our approach, GeoPhy, enables variational inference without limiting the topological candidates. In experiments using real benchmark datasets, GeoPhy significantly outperformed other approximate Bayesian methods that considered whole topologies.

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a widely used technique to simulate molecular systems, most commonly at the all-atom resolution where equations of motion are integrated with timesteps on the order of femtoseconds ($1\textrm{fs}=10^{-15}\textrm{s}$). MD is often used to compute equilibrium properties, which requires sampling from an equilibrium distribution such as the Boltzmann distribution. However, many important processes, such as binding and folding, occur over timescales of milliseconds or beyond, and cannot be efficiently sampled with conventional MD. Furthermore, new MD simulations need to be performed for each molecular system studied. We present Timewarp, an enhanced sampling method which uses a normalising flow as a proposal distribution in a Markov chain Monte Carlo method targeting the Boltzmann distribution. The flow is trained offline on MD trajectories and learns to make large steps in time, simulating the molecular dynamics of $10^{5} - 10^{6}\:\textrm{fs}$. Crucially, Timewarp is transferable between molecular systems: once trained, we show that it generalises to unseen small peptides (2-4 amino acids) at all-atom resolution, exploring their metastable states and providing wall-clock acceleration of sampling compared to standard MD. Our method constitutes an important step towards general, transferable algorithms for accelerating MD.

Our work presents a novel approach to shape optimization, with the twofold objective to improve the efficiency of global optimization algorithms while promoting the generation of high-quality designs during the optimization process free of geometrical anomalies. This is accomplished by reducing the number of the original design variables defining a new reduced subspace where the geometrical variance is maximized and modeling the underlying generative process of the data via probabilistic linear latent variable models such as factor analysis and probabilistic principal component analysis. We show that the data follows approximately a Gaussian distribution when the shape modification method is linear and the design variables are sampled uniformly at random, due to the direct application of the central limit theorem. The degree of anomalousness is measured in terms of Mahalanobis distance, and the paper demonstrates that abnormal designs tend to exhibit a high value of this metric. This enables the definition of a new optimization model where anomalous geometries are penalized and consequently avoided during the optimization loop. The procedure is demonstrated for hull shape optimization of the DTMB 5415 model, extensively used as an international benchmark for shape optimization problems. The global optimization routine is carried out using Bayesian optimization and the DIRECT algorithm. From the numerical results, the new framework improves the convergence of global optimization algorithms, while only designs with high-quality geometrical features are generated through the optimization routine thereby avoiding the wastage of precious computationally expensive simulations.

In real-world tasks, there is usually a large amount of unlabeled data and labeled data. The task of combining the two to learn is known as semi-supervised learning. Experts can use logical rules to label unlabeled data, but this operation is costly. The combination of perception and reasoning has a good effect in processing such semi-supervised tasks with domain knowledge. However, acquiring domain knowledge and the correction, reduction and generation of rules remain complex problems to be solved. Rough set theory is an important method for solving knowledge processing in information systems. In this paper, we propose a rule general abductive learning by rough set (RS-ABL). By transforming the target concept and sub-concepts of rules into information tables, rough set theory is used to solve the acquisition of domain knowledge and the correction, reduction and generation of rules at a lower cost. This framework can also generate more extensive negative rules to enhance the breadth of the knowledge base. Compared with the traditional semi-supervised learning method, RS-ABL has higher accuracy in dealing with semi-supervised tasks.

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology has become increasingly prevalent and transforms our everyday life. One important application of AI technology is the development of autonomous vehicles (AV). However, the reliability of an AV needs to be carefully demonstrated via an assurance test so that the product can be used with confidence in the field. To plan for an assurance test, one needs to determine how many AVs need to be tested for how many miles and the standard for passing the test. Existing research has made great efforts in developing reliability demonstration tests in the other fields of applications for product development and assessment. However, statistical methods have not been utilized in AV test planning. This paper aims to fill in this gap by developing statistical methods for planning AV reliability assurance tests based on recurrent events data. We explore the relationship between multiple criteria of interest in the context of planning AV reliability assurance tests. Specifically, we develop two test planning strategies based on homogeneous and non-homogeneous Poisson processes while balancing multiple objectives with the Pareto front approach. We also offer recommendations for practical use. The disengagement events data from the California Department of Motor Vehicles AV testing program is used to illustrate the proposed assurance test planning methods.

Next-generation radio interferometers like the Square Kilometer Array have the potential to unlock scientific discoveries thanks to their unprecedented angular resolution and sensitivity. One key to unlocking their potential resides in handling the deluge and complexity of incoming data. This challenge requires building radio interferometric imaging methods that can cope with the massive data sizes and provide high-quality image reconstructions with uncertainty quantification (UQ). This work proposes a method coined QuantifAI to address UQ in radio-interferometric imaging with data-driven (learned) priors for high-dimensional settings. Our model, rooted in the Bayesian framework, uses a physically motivated model for the likelihood. The model exploits a data-driven convex prior, which can encode complex information learned implicitly from simulations and guarantee the log-concavity of the posterior. We leverage probability concentration phenomena of high-dimensional log-concave posteriors that let us obtain information about the posterior, avoiding MCMC sampling techniques. We rely on convex optimisation methods to compute the MAP estimation, which is known to be faster and better scale with dimension than MCMC sampling strategies. Our method allows us to compute local credible intervals, i.e., Bayesian error bars, and perform hypothesis testing of structure on the reconstructed image. In addition, we propose a novel blazing-fast method to compute pixel-wise uncertainties at different scales. We demonstrate our method by reconstructing radio-interferometric images in a simulated setting and carrying out fast and scalable UQ, which we validate with MCMC sampling. Our method shows an improved image quality and more meaningful uncertainties than the benchmark method based on a sparsity-promoting prior. QuantifAI's source code: https://github.com/astro-informatics/QuantifAI.

In this paper, we address the problem of detecting anomalies among a given set of binary processes via learning-based controlled sensing. Each process is parameterized by a binary random variable indicating whether the process is anomalous. To identify the anomalies, the decision-making agent is allowed to observe a subset of the processes at each time instant. Also, probing each process has an associated cost. Our objective is to design a sequential selection policy that dynamically determines which processes to observe at each time with the goal to minimize the delay in making the decision and the total sensing cost. We cast this problem as a sequential hypothesis testing problem within the framework of Markov decision processes. This formulation utilizes both a Bayesian log-likelihood ratio-based reward and an entropy-based reward. The problem is then solved using two approaches: 1) a deep reinforcement learning-based approach where we design both deep Q-learning and policy gradient actor-critic algorithms; and 2) a deep active inference-based approach. Using numerical experiments, we demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithms and show that our algorithms adapt to any unknown statistical dependence pattern of the processes.