We present a new algorithm to learn a deep neural network model robust against adversarial attacks. Previous algorithms demonstrate an adversarially trained Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) provides improved robustness. We recognize the adversarial learning approach for approximating the multi-modal posterior distribution of a Bayesian model can lead to mode collapse; consequently, the model's achievements in robustness and performance are sub-optimal. Instead, we first propose preventing mode collapse to better approximate the multi-modal posterior distribution. Second, based on the intuition that a robust model should ignore perturbations and only consider the informative content of the input, we conceptualize and formulate an information gain objective to measure and force the information learned from both benign and adversarial training instances to be similar. Importantly. we prove and demonstrate that minimizing the information gain objective allows the adversarial risk to approach the conventional empirical risk. We believe our efforts provide a step toward a basis for a principled method of adversarially training BNNs. Our model demonstrate significantly improved robustness--up to 20%--compared with adversarial training and Adv-BNN under PGD attacks with 0.035 distortion on both CIFAR-10 and STL-10 datasets.

The software for clustering students according to their educational achievements using fuzzy logic was developed in Python using the Google Colab cloud service. In the process of analyzing educational data, the problems of Data Mining are solved, since only some characteristics of the educational process are obtained from a large sample of data. Data clustering was performed using the classic K-Means method, which is characterized by simplicity and high speed. Cluster analysis was performed in the space of two features using the machine learning library scikit-learn (Python). The obtained clusters are described by fuzzy triangular membership functions, which allowed to correctly determine the membership of each student to a certain cluster. Creation of fuzzy membership functions is done using the scikit-fuzzy library. The development of fuzzy functions of objects belonging to clusters is also useful for educational purposes, as it allows a better understanding of the principles of using fuzzy logic. As a result of processing test educational data using the developed software, correct results were obtained. It is shown that the use of fuzzy membership functions makes it possible to correctly determine the belonging of students to certain clusters, even if such clusters are not clearly separated. Due to this, it is possible to more accurately determine the recommended level of difficulty of tasks for each student, depending on his previous evaluations.

We consider the problem of learning causal Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) using combinations of observational and interventional experimental data. Current methods tailored to this setting assume that interventions either destroy parent-child relations of the intervened (target) nodes or only alter such relations without modifying the parent sets, even when the intervention targets are unknown. We relax this assumption by proposing a Bayesian method for causal discovery from general interventions, which allow for modifications of the parent sets of the unknown targets. Even in this framework, DAGs and general interventions may be identifiable only up to some equivalence classes. We provide graphical characterizations of such interventional Markov equivalence and devise compatible priors for Bayesian inference that guarantee score equivalence of indistinguishable structures. We then develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to approximate the posterior distribution over DAGs, intervention targets and induced parent sets. Finally, we evaluate the proposed methodology on both simulated and real protein expression data.

Accuracy and interpretability of a (non-life) insurance pricing model are essential qualities to ensure fair and transparent premiums for policy-holders, that reflect their risk. In recent years, the classification and regression trees (CARTs) and their ensembles have gained popularity in the actuarial literature, since they offer good prediction performance and are relatively easily interpretable. In this paper, we introduce Bayesian CART models for insurance pricing, with a particular focus on claims frequency modelling. Additionally to the common Poisson and negative binomial (NB) distributions used for claims frequency, we implement Bayesian CART for the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution to address the difficulty arising from the imbalanced insurance claims data. To this end, we introduce a general MCMC algorithm using data augmentation methods for posterior tree exploration. We also introduce the deviance information criterion (DIC) for the tree model selection. The proposed models are able to identify trees which can better classify the policy-holders into risk groups. Some simulations and real insurance data will be discussed to illustrate the applicability of these models.

The recent COVID-19 pandemic underscores the significance of early-stage non-pharmacological intervention strategies. The widespread use of masks and the systematic implementation of contact tracing strategies provide a potentially equally effective and socially less impactful alternative to more conventional approaches, such as large-scale mobility restrictions. However, manual contact tracing faces strong limitations in accessing the network of contacts, and the scalability of currently implemented protocols for smartphone-based digital contact tracing becomes impractical during the rapid expansion phases of the outbreaks, due to the surge in exposure notifications and associated tests. A substantial improvement in digital contact tracing can be obtained through the integration of probabilistic techniques for risk assessment that can more effectively guide the allocation of new diagnostic tests. In this study, we first quantitatively analyze the diagnostic and social costs associated with these containment measures based on contact tracing, employing three state-of-the-art models of SARS-CoV-2 spreading. Our results suggest that probabilistic techniques allow for more effective mitigation at a lower cost. Secondly, our findings reveal a remarkable efficacy of probabilistic contact-tracing techniques in capturing backward propagations and super-spreading events, relevant features of the diffusion of many pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2.

We develop an online learning MCMC approach applicable for hierarchical bayesian models and GLMS. We also develop a fat-tailed LTV model that generalizes over several kinds of fat and thin tails. We demonstrate both developments on commercial LTV data from a large mobile app.

Learned cardinality estimation methods have achieved high precision compared to traditional methods. Among learned methods, query-driven approaches have faced the workload drift problem for a long time. Although both data-driven and hybrid methods are proposed to avoid this problem, most of them suffer from high training and estimation costs, limited scalability, instability, and long-tail distribution problems on high-dimensional tables, which seriously affects the practical application of learned cardinality estimators. In this paper, we prove that most of these problems are directly caused by the widely used progressive sampling. We solve this problem by introducing predicate information into the autoregressive model and propose Duet, a stable, efficient, and scalable hybrid method to estimate cardinality directly without sampling or any non-differentiable process, which can not only reduce the inference complexity from $O(n)$ to $O(1)$ compared to Naru and UAE but also achieve higher accuracy on high cardinality and high-dimensional tables. Experimental results show that Duet can achieve all the design goals above and be much more practical. Besides, Duet even has a lower inference cost on CPU than that of most learned methods on GPU.

Non-autoregressive models have been widely studied in the Complete Information Scenario (CIS), in which the input has complete information of corresponding output. However, their explorations in the Incomplete Information Scenario (IIS) are extremely limited. Our analyses reveal that the IIS's incomplete input information will augment the inherent limitations of existing non-autoregressive models trained under Maximum Likelihood Estimation. In this paper, we propose for the IIS an Adversarial Non-autoregressive Transformer (ANT) which has two features: 1) Position-Aware Self-Modulation to provide more reasonable hidden representations, and 2) Dependency Feed Forward Network to strengthen its capacity in dependency modeling. We compare ANT with other mainstream models in the IIS and demonstrate that ANT can achieve comparable performance with much fewer decoding iterations. Furthermore, we show its great potential in various applications like latent interpolation and semi-supervised learning.

Binary phylogenetic trees inferred from biological data are central to understanding the shared evolutionary history of organisms. Inferring the placement of latent nodes in a tree by any optimality criterion (e.g., maximum likelihood) is an NP-hard problem, propelling the development of myriad heuristic approaches. Yet, these heuristics often lack a systematic means of uniformly sampling random trees or effectively exploring a tree space that grows factorially, which are crucial to optimisation problems such as machine learning. Phylo2Vec maps any binary tree with n leaves to an integer vector of length n 1. We prove that Phylo2Vec is both well-defined and bijective to the space of phylogenetic trees. The advantages of Phylo2Vec are twofold: i) easy uniform sampling of binary trees and ii) systematic ability to traverse tree space in very large or small jumps. As a proof of concept, we use Phylo2Vec for maximum likelihood inference on five real-world datasets and show that a simple hill climbing-based optimisation can efficiently traverse the vastness of tree space from a random to an optimal tree. Phylogenetic trees are a fundamental tool in depicting evolutionary processes, whether linguistic (evolution of different languages and language families) or biological (evolution of biological entities). In the latter field, phylogenetic trees are integral to multiple research domains, including evolution (Morlon et al., 2010), conservation (Rolland et al., 2011), and epidemiology, where they allow us to better understand infectious disease transmission dynamics (Ypma et al., 2013; Faria et al., 2021). A multitude of computer-readable formats have been proposed to store and represent (binary) phylogenetic trees. While basic data structures such as arrays or linked lists can be used for this purpose, the Newick format, as outlined by Olsen (1990) and Felsenstein (2004), has emerged as the standard notation. Each parenthesis encloses a pair of leaf nodes or subtrees, separated by a comma.

Human perception, memory and decision-making are impacted by tens of cognitive biases and heuristics that influence our actions and decisions. Despite the pervasiveness of such biases, they are generally not leveraged by today's Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems that model human behavior and interact with humans. In this theoretical paper, we claim that the future of human-machine collaboration will entail the development of AI systems that model, understand and possibly replicate human cognitive biases. We propose the need for a research agenda on the interplay between human cognitive biases and Artificial Intelligence. We categorize existing cognitive biases from the perspective of AI systems, identify three broad areas of interest and outline research directions for the design of AI systems that have a better understanding of our own biases.