Uncertainty
Multi-Frequency Joint Community Detection and Phase Synchronization
This paper studies the joint community detection and phase synchronization problem on the \textit{stochastic block model with relative phase}, where each node is associated with an unknown phase angle. This problem, with a variety of real-world applications, aims to recover the cluster structure and associated phase angles simultaneously. We show this problem exhibits a \textit{``multi-frequency''} structure by closely examining its maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) formulation, whereas existing methods are not originated from this perspective. To this end, two simple yet efficient algorithms that leverage the MLE formulation and benefit from the information across multiple frequencies are proposed. The former is a spectral method based on the novel multi-frequency column-pivoted QR factorization. The factorization applied to the top eigenvectors of the observation matrix provides key information about the cluster structure and associated phase angles. The second approach is an iterative multi-frequency generalized power method, where each iteration updates the estimation in a matrix-multiplication-then-projection manner. Numerical experiments show that our proposed algorithms significantly improve the ability of exactly recovering the cluster structure and the accuracy of the estimated phase angles, compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.
Learning to sample in Cartesian MRI
Despite its exceptional soft tissue contrast, Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) faces the challenge of long scanning times compared to other modalities like X-ray radiography. Shortening scanning times is crucial in clinical settings, as it increases patient comfort, decreases examination costs and improves throughput. Recent advances in compressed sensing (CS) and deep learning allow accelerated MRI acquisition by reconstructing high-quality images from undersampled data. While reconstruction algorithms have received most of the focus, designing acquisition trajectories to optimize reconstruction quality remains an open question. This thesis explores two approaches to address this gap in the context of Cartesian MRI. First, we propose two algorithms, lazy LBCS and stochastic LBCS, that significantly improve upon G\"ozc\"u et al.'s greedy learning-based CS (LBCS) approach. These algorithms scale to large, clinically relevant scenarios like multi-coil 3D MR and dynamic MRI, previously inaccessible to LBCS. Additionally, we demonstrate that generative adversarial networks (GANs) can serve as a natural criterion for adaptive sampling by leveraging variance in the measurement domain to guide acquisition. Second, we delve into the underlying structures or assumptions that enable mask design algorithms to perform well in practice. Our experiments reveal that state-of-the-art deep reinforcement learning (RL) approaches, while capable of adaptation and long-horizon planning, offer only marginal improvements over stochastic LBCS, which is neither adaptive nor does long-term planning. Altogether, our findings suggest that stochastic LBCS and similar methods represent promising alternatives to deep RL. They shine in particular by their scalability and computational efficiency and could be key in the deployment of optimized acquisition trajectories in Cartesian MRI.
Enhancing Polynomial Chaos Expansion Based Surrogate Modeling using a Novel Probabilistic Transfer Learning Strategy
Bridgman, Wyatt, Balakrishnan, Uma, Jones, Reese, Chen, Jiefu, Wu, Xuqing, Safta, Cosmin, Huang, Yueqin, Khalil, Mohammad
In the field of surrogate modeling, polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) allows practitioners to construct inexpensive yet accurate surrogates to be used in place of the expensive forward model simulations. For black-box simulations, non-intrusive PCE allows the construction of these surrogates using a set of simulation response evaluations. In this context, the PCE coefficients can be obtained using linear regression, which is also known as point collocation or stochastic response surfaces. Regression exhibits better scalability and can handle noisy function evaluations in contrast to other non-intrusive approaches, such as projection. However, since over-sampling is generally advisable for the linear regression approach, the simulation requirements become prohibitive for expensive forward models. We propose to leverage transfer learning whereby knowledge gained through similar PCE surrogate construction tasks (source domains) is transferred to a new surrogate-construction task (target domain) which has a limited number of forward model simulations (training data). The proposed transfer learning strategy determines how much, if any, information to transfer using new techniques inspired by Bayesian modeling and data assimilation. The strategy is scrutinized using numerical investigations and applied to an engineering problem from the oil and gas industry.
A Block Metropolis-Hastings Sampler for Controllable Energy-based Text Generation
Forristal, Jarad, Mireshghallah, Niloofar, Durrett, Greg, Berg-Kirkpatrick, Taylor
Recent work has shown that energy-based language modeling is an effective framework for controllable text generation because it enables flexible integration of arbitrary discriminators. However, because energy-based LMs are globally normalized, approximate techniques like Metropolis-Hastings (MH) are required for inference. Past work has largely explored simple proposal distributions that modify a single token at a time, like in Gibbs sampling. In this paper, we develop a novel MH sampler that, in contrast, proposes re-writes of the entire sequence in each step via iterative prompting of a large language model. Our new sampler (a) allows for more efficient and accurate sampling from a target distribution and (b) allows generation length to be determined through the sampling procedure rather than fixed in advance, as past work has required. We perform experiments on two controlled generation tasks, showing both downstream performance gains and more accurate target distribution sampling in comparison with single-token proposal techniques.
Mixture of Dynamical Variational Autoencoders for Multi-Source Trajectory Modeling and Separation
Lin, Xiaoyu, Girin, Laurent, Alameda-Pineda, Xavier
In this paper, we propose a latent-variable generative model called mixture of dynamical variational autoencoders (MixDV AE) to model the dynamics of a system composed of multiple moving sources. A DV AE model is pre-trained on a single-source dataset to capture the source dynamics. Then, multiple instances of the pre-trained DV AE model are integrated into a multi-source mixture model with a discrete observation-to-source assignment latent variable. The posterior distributions of both the discrete observation-to-source assignment variable and the continuous DV AE variables representing the sources content/position are estimated using a variational expectation-maximization algorithm, leading to multi-source trajectories estimation. We illustrate the versatility of the proposed MixDV AE model on two tasks: a computer vision task, namely multi-object tracking, and an audio processing task, namely single-channel audio source separation. Experimental results show that the proposed method works well on these two tasks, and outperforms several baseline methods.
Distributed Bayesian Estimation in Sensor Networks: Consensus on Marginal Densities
Paritosh, Parth, Atanasov, Nikolay, Martinez, Sonia
In this paper, we aim to design and analyze distributed Bayesian estimation algorithms for sensor networks. The challenges we address are to (i) derive a distributed provably-correct algorithm in the functional space of probability distributions over continuous variables, and (ii) leverage these results to obtain new distributed estimators restricted to subsets of variables observed by individual agents. This relates to applications such as cooperative localization and federated learning, where the data collected at any agent depends on a subset of all variables of interest. We present Bayesian density estimation algorithms using data from non-linear likelihoods at agents in centralized, distributed, and marginal distributed settings. After setting up a distributed estimation objective, we prove almost-sure convergence to the optimal set of pdfs at each agent. Then, we prove the same for a storage-aware algorithm estimating densities only over relevant variables at each agent. Finally, we present a Gaussian version of these algorithms and implement it in a mapping problem using variational inference to handle non-linear likelihood models associated with LiDAR sensing.
Luck, skill, and depth of competition in games and social hierarchies
Jerdee, Maximilian, Newman, M. E. J.
Patterns of wins and losses in pairwise contests, such as occur in sports and games, consumer research and paired comparison studies, and human and animal social hierarchies, are commonly analyzed using probabilistic models that allow one to quantify the strength of competitors or predict the outcome of future contests. Here we generalize this approach to incorporate two additional features: an element of randomness or luck that leads to upset wins, and a "depth of competition" variable that measures the complexity of a game or hierarchy. Fitting the resulting model to a large collection of data sets we estimate depth and luck in a range of games, sports, and social situations. In general, we find that social competition tends to be "deep," meaning it has a pronounced hierarchy with many distinct levels, but also that there is often a nonzero chance of an upset victory, meaning that dominance challenges can be won even by significant underdogs. Competition in sports and games, by contrast, tends to be shallow and in most cases there is little evidence of upset wins, beyond those already implied by the shallowness of the hierarchy.
Horizon-Free and Instance-Dependent Regret Bounds for Reinforcement Learning with General Function Approximation
Huang, Jiayi, Zhong, Han, Wang, Liwei, Yang, Lin F.
To tackle long planning horizon problems in reinforcement learning with general function approximation, we propose the first algorithm, termed as UCRL-WVTR, that achieves both \emph{horizon-free} and \emph{instance-dependent}, since it eliminates the polynomial dependency on the planning horizon. The derived regret bound is deemed \emph{sharp}, as it matches the minimax lower bound when specialized to linear mixture MDPs up to logarithmic factors. Furthermore, UCRL-WVTR is \emph{computationally efficient} with access to a regression oracle. The achievement of such a horizon-free, instance-dependent, and sharp regret bound hinges upon (i) novel algorithm designs: weighted value-targeted regression and a high-order moment estimator in the context of general function approximation; and (ii) fine-grained analyses: a novel concentration bound of weighted non-linear least squares and a refined analysis which leads to the tight instance-dependent bound. We also conduct comprehensive experiments to corroborate our theoretical findings.
Evaluation of Active Feature Acquisition Methods for Static Feature Settings
von Kleist, Henrik, Zamanian, Alireza, Shpitser, Ilya, Ahmidi, Narges
Machine learning (ML) methods generally assume the ready availability of the complete set of input features at deployment, typically incurring little to no cost. However, this assumption does not hold universally, especially in scenarios where feature acquisitions are associated with substantial costs. In contexts like medical diagnostics, the cost of acquiring certain features, such as X-rays, biopsies, etc. encompasses not only financial costs but also poses potential risks to patient well-being. In such cases, the cost or harm of the feature acquisition should be balanced against the predictive value of the feature. Active feature acquisition (AFA) addresses this problem by training two AI components: i) the "AFA agent," an AI system tasked with determining which features should be observed, and ii) an ML prediction model that undertakes the prediction task based on the acquired feature set. While missingness was effectively determined by, for example, a physician during the acquisition of the retrospective dataset, the missingness at the deployment of the AFA agent is determined by the AFA agent, thereby leading to a missingness distribution shift. In our companion paper [1], we formulate the problem of active feature acquisition performance evaluation (AFAPE) which addresses the task of estimating the performance an AFA agent would have at deployment, from the retrospective dataset. Consequently, upon completing the AFAPE problem, the physician will be well-informed about expected rates of incorrect diagnoses and the average costs associated with feature acquisitions when the AFA system is put into operation.
Statistical Guarantees for Variational Autoencoders using PAC-Bayesian Theory
Mbacke, Sokhna Diarra, Clerc, Florence, Germain, Pascal
Since their inception, Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) have become central in machine learning. Despite their widespread use, numerous questions regarding their theoretical properties remain open. Using PAC-Bayesian theory, this work develops statistical guarantees for VAEs. First, we derive the first PAC-Bayesian bound for posterior distributions conditioned on individual samples from the data-generating distribution. Then, we utilize this result to develop generalization guarantees for the VAE's reconstruction loss, as well as upper bounds on the distance between the input and the regenerated distributions. More importantly, we provide upper bounds on the Wasserstein distance between the input distribution and the distribution defined by the VAE's generative model.