We propose to use a simulation driven inverse inference approach to model the dynamics of tree branches under manipulation. Learning branch dynamics and gaining the ability to manipulate deformable vegetation can help with occlusion-prone tasks, such as fruit picking in dense foliage, as well as moving overhanging vines and branches for navigation in dense vegetation. The underlying deformable tree geometry is encapsulated as coarse spring abstractions executed on parallel, non-differentiable simulators. The implicit statistical model defined by the simulator, reference trajectories obtained by actively probing the ground truth, and the Bayesian formalism, together guide the spring parameter posterior density estimation. Our non-parametric inference algorithm, based on Stein Variational Gradient Descent, incorporates biologically motivated assumptions into the inference process as neural network driven learnt joint priors; moreover, it leverages the finite difference scheme for gradient approximations. Real and simulated experiments confirm that our model can predict deformation trajectories, quantify the estimation uncertainty, and it can perform better when base-lined against other inference algorithms, particularly from the Monte Carlo family. The model displays strong robustness properties in the presence of heteroscedastic sensor noise; furthermore, it can generalise to unseen grasp locations.

We propose polar encoding, a representation of categorical and numerical $[0,1]$-valued attributes with missing values to be used in a classification context. We argue that this is a good baseline approach, because it can be used with any classification algorithm, preserves missingness information, is very simple to apply and offers good performance. In particular, unlike the existing missing-indicator approach, it does not require imputation, ensures that missing values are equidistant from non-missing values, and lets decision tree algorithms choose how to split missing values, thereby providing a practical realisation of the "missingness incorporated in attributes" (MIA) proposal. Furthermore, we show that categorical and $[0,1]$-valued attributes can be viewed as special cases of a single attribute type, corresponding to the classical concept of barycentric coordinates, and that this offers a natural interpretation of polar encoding as a fuzzified form of one-hot encoding. With an experiment based on twenty real-life datasets with missing values, we show that, in terms of the resulting classification performance, polar encoding performs better than the state-of-the-art strategies \e{multiple imputation by chained equations} (MICE) and \e{multiple imputation with denoising autoencoders} (MIDAS) and -- depending on the classifier -- about as well or better than mean/mode imputation with missing-indicators.

Being the most classical generative model for serial data, state-space models (SSM) are fundamental in AI and statistical machine learning. In SSM, any form of parameter learning or latent state inference typically involves the computation of complex latent-state posteriors. In this work, we build upon the variational sequential Monte Carlo (VSMC) method, which provides computationally efficient and accurate model parameter estimation and Bayesian latent-state inference by combining particle methods and variational inference. While standard VSMC operates in the offline mode, by re-processing repeatedly a given batch of data, we distribute the approximation of the gradient of the VSMC surrogate ELBO in time using stochastic approximation, allowing for online learning in the presence of streams of data. This results in an algorithm, online VSMC, that is capable of performing efficiently, entirely on-the-fly, both parameter estimation and particle proposal adaptation. In addition, we provide rigorous theoretical results describing the algorithm's convergence properties as the number of data tends to infinity as well as numerical illustrations of its excellent convergence properties and usefulness also in batch-processing settings.

Machine Learning (ML) is an expressive framework for turning data into computer programs. Across many problem domains -- both in industry and policy settings -- the types of computer programs needed for accurate prediction or optimal control are difficult to write by hand. On the other hand, collecting instances of desired system behavior may be relatively more feasible. This makes ML broadly appealing, but also induces data sensitivities that often manifest as unexpected failure modes during deployment. In this sense, the training data available tend to be imperfect for the task at hand. This thesis explores several data sensitivities of modern machine learning and how to address them. We begin by discussing how to prevent ML from codifying prior human discrimination measured in the training data, where we take a fair representation learning approach. We then discuss the problem of learning from data containing spurious features, which provide predictive fidelity during training but are unreliable upon deployment. Here we observe that insofar as standard training methods tend to learn such features, this propensity can be leveraged to search for partitions of training data that expose this inconsistency, ultimately promoting learning algorithms invariant to spurious features. Finally, we turn our attention to reinforcement learning from data with insufficient coverage over all possible states and actions. To address the coverage issue, we discuss how causal priors can be used to model the single-step dynamics of the setting where data are collected. This enables a new type of data augmentation where observed trajectories are stitched together to produce new but plausible counterfactual trajectories.

This manuscript enriches the framework of continuous normalizing flows (CNFs) within causal inference, primarily to augment the geometric properties of parametric submodels used in targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE). By introducing an innovative application of CNFs, we construct a refined series of parametric submodels that enable a directed interpolation between the prior distribution $p_0$ and the empirical distribution $p_1$. This proposed methodology serves to optimize the semiparametric efficiency bound in causal inference by orchestrating CNFs to align with Wasserstein gradient flows. Our approach not only endeavors to minimize the mean squared error in the estimation but also imbues the estimators with geometric sophistication, thereby enhancing robustness against misspecification. This robustness is crucial, as it alleviates the dependence on the standard $n^{\frac{1}{4}}$ rate for a doubly-robust perturbation direction in TMLE. By incorporating robust optimization principles and differential geometry into the estimators, the developed geometry-aware CNFs represent a significant advancement in the pursuit of doubly robust causal inference.

Probabilistic solvers provide a flexible and efficient framework for simulation, uncertainty quantification, and inference in dynamical systems. However, like standard solvers, they suffer performance penalties for certain stiff systems, where small steps are required not for reasons of numerical accuracy but for the sake of stability. This issue is greatly alleviated in semi-linear problems by the probabilistic exponential integrators developed in this paper. By including the fast, linear dynamics in the prior, we arrive at a class of probabilistic integrators with favorable properties. Namely, they are proven to be L-stable, and in a certain case reduce to a classic exponential integrator -- with the added benefit of providing a probabilistic account of the numerical error. The method is also generalized to arbitrary non-linear systems by imposing piece-wise semi-linearity on the prior via Jacobians of the vector field at the previous estimates, resulting in probabilistic exponential Rosenbrock methods. We evaluate the proposed methods on multiple stiff differential equations and demonstrate their improved stability and efficiency over established probabilistic solvers. The present contribution thus expands the range of problems that can be effectively tackled within probabilistic numerics.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization has long been a challenging problem that remains largely unsolved. Gaussian processes (GP), as popular probabilistic model classes, especially in the small data regime, presume strong OOD generalization abilities. Surprisingly, their OOD generalization abilities have been under-explored before compared with other lines of GP research. In this paper, we identify that GP is not free from the problem and propose a domain invariant learning algorithm for Gaussian processes (DIL-GP) with a min-max optimization on the likelihood. DIL-GP discovers the heterogeneity in the data and forces invariance across partitioned subsets of data. We further extend the DIL-GP to improve Bayesian optimization's adaptability on changing environments. Numerical experiments demonstrate the superiority of DIL-GP for predictions on several synthetic and real-world datasets. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of the DIL-GP Bayesian optimization method on a PID parameters tuning experiment for a quadrotor. The full version and source code are available at: https://github.com/Billzxl/DIL-GP.

Decision-makers often observe the occurrence of events through a reporting process. City governments, for example, rely on resident reports to find and then resolve urban infrastructural problems such as fallen street trees, flooded basements, or rat infestations. Without additional assumptions, there is no way to distinguish events that occur but are not reported from events that truly did not occur--a fundamental problem in settings with positive-unlabeled data. Because disparities in reporting rates correlate with resident demographics, addressing incidents only on the basis of reports leads to systematic neglect in neighborhoods that are less likely to report events. We show how to overcome this challenge by leveraging the fact that events are spatially correlated. Our framework uses a Bayesian spatial latent variable model to infer event occurrence probabilities and applies it to storm-induced flooding reports in New York City, further pooling results across multiple storms. We show that a model accounting for under-reporting and spatial correlation predicts future reports more accurately than other models, and further induces a more equitable set of inspections: its allocations better reflect the population and provide equitable service to non-white, less traditionally educated, and lower-income residents. This finding reflects heterogeneous reporting behavior learned by the model: reporting rates are higher in Census tracts with higher populations, proportions of white residents, and proportions of owner-occupied households. Our work lays the groundwork for more equitable proactive government services, even with disparate reporting behavior.

Causal Structure Learning (CSL), amounting to extracting causal relations among the variables in a dataset, is widely perceived as an important step towards robust and transparent models. Constraint-based CSL leverages conditional independence tests to perform causal discovery. We propose Shapley-PC, a novel method to improve constraint-based CSL algorithms by using Shapley values over the possible conditioning sets to decide which variables are responsible for the observed conditional (in)dependences. We prove soundness and asymptotic consistency and demonstrate that it can outperform state-of-the-art constraint-based, search-based and functional causal model-based methods, according to standard metrics in CSL.

This paper addresses the problem of maintaining safety during training in Reinforcement Learning (RL), such that the safety constraint violations are bounded at any point during learning. In a variety of RL applications the safety of the agent is particularly important, e.g. autonomous platforms or robots that work in proximity of humans. As enforcing safety during training might severely limit the agent's exploration, we propose here a new architecture that handles the trade-off between efficient progress and safety during exploration. As the exploration progresses, we update via Bayesian inference Dirichlet-Categorical models of the transition probabilities of the Markov decision process that describes the environment dynamics. This paper proposes a way to approximate moments of belief about the risk associated to the action selection policy. We construct those approximations, and prove the convergence results. We propose a novel method for leveraging the expectation approximations to derive an approximate bound on the confidence that the risk is below a certain level. This approach can be easily interleaved with RL and we present experimental results to showcase the performance of the overall architecture.