Fuzzy Logic
Tensor and Matrix Low-Rank Value-Function Approximation in Reinforcement Learning
Rozada, Sergio, Marques, Antonio G.
Value-function (VF) approximation is a central problem in Reinforcement Learning (RL). Classical non-parametric VF estimation suffers from the curse of dimensionality. As a result, parsimonious parametric models have been adopted to approximate VFs in high-dimensional spaces, with most efforts being focused on linear and neural-network-based approaches. Differently, this paper puts forth a a parsimonious non-parametric approach, where we use stochastic low-rank algorithms to estimate the VF matrix in an online and model-free fashion. Furthermore, as VFs tend to be multi-dimensional, we propose replacing the classical VF matrix representation with a tensor (multi-way array) representation and, then, use the PARAFAC decomposition to design an online model-free tensor low-rank algorithm. Different versions of the algorithms are proposed, their complexity is analyzed, and their performance is assessed numerically using standardized RL environments.
Profitable Strategy Design by Using Deep Reinforcement Learning for Trades on Cryptocurrency Markets
Asgari, Mohsen, Khasteh, Seyed Hossein
Deep Reinforcement Learning solutions have been applied to different control problems with outperforming and promising results. In this research work we have applied Proximal Policy Optimization, Soft Actor-Critic and Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning to strategy design problem of three cryptocurrency markets. Our input data includes price data and technical indicators. We have implemented a Gym environment based on cryptocurrency markets to be used with the algorithms. Our test results on unseen data shows a great potential for this approach in helping investors with an expert system to exploit the market and gain profit. Our highest gain for an unseen 66 day span is 4850 US dollars per 10000 US dollars investment. We also discuss on how a specific hyperparameter in the environment design can be used to adjust risk in the generated strategies.
An Efficient and Accurate Rough Set for Feature Selection, Classification and Knowledge Representation
Xia, Shuyin, Bai, Xinyu, Wang, Guoyin, Meng, Deyu, Gao, Xinbo, Chen, Zizhong, Giem, Elisabeth
This paper present a strong data mining method based on rough set, which can realize feature selection, classification and knowledge representation at the same time. Rough set has good interpretability, and is a popular method for feature selections. But low efficiency and low accuracy are its main drawbacks that limits its application ability. In this paper,corresponding to the accuracy, we first find the ineffectiveness of rough set because of overfitting, especially in processing noise attribute, and propose a robust measurement for an attribute, called relative importance.we proposed the concept of "rough concept tree" for knowledge representation and classification. Experimental results on public benchmark data sets show that the proposed framework achieves higher accurcy than seven popular or the state-of-the-art feature selection methods.
GBRS: An Unified Model of Pawlak Rough Set and Neighborhood Rough Set
Xia, Shuyin, Wang, Cheng, Wang, GuoYing, Gao, XinBo, Giem, Elisabeth, Yu, JianHang
Pawlak rough set and neighborhood rough set are the two most common rough set theoretical models. Pawlawk can use equivalence classes to represent knowledge, but it cannot process continuous data; neighborhood rough sets can process continuous data, but it loses the ability of using equivalence classes to represent knowledge. To this end, this paper presents a granular-ball rough set based on the granlar-ball computing. The granular-ball rough set can simultaneously represent Pawlak rough sets, and the neighborhood rough set, so as to realize the unified representation of the two. This makes the granular-ball rough set not only can deal with continuous data, but also can use equivalence classes for knowledge representation. In addition, we propose an implementation algorithms of granular-ball rough sets. The experimental resuts on benchmark datasets demonstrate that, due to the combination of the robustness and adaptability of the granular-ball computing, the learning accuracy of the granular-ball rough set has been greatly improved compared with the Pawlak rough set and the traditional neighborhood rough set. The granular-ball rough set also outperforms nine popular or the state-of-the-art feature selection methods.
Time Series Forecasting Using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps: A Survey
Orang, Omid, Silva, Petrônio Cândido de Lima e, Guimarães, Frederico Gadelha
Increasing complexity comes from some factors including uncertainty, ambiguity, inconsistency, multiple dimensionalities, increasing the number of effective factors and relation between them. Some of these features are common among most real-world problems which are considered complex and dynamic problems. In other words, since the data and relations in real world applications are usually highly complex and inaccurate, modeling real complex systems based on observed data is a challenging task especially for large scale, inaccurate and non stationary datasets. Therefore, to cover and address these difficulties, the existence of a computational system with the capability of extracting knowledge from the complex system with the ability to simulate its behavior is essential. In other words, it is needed to find a robust approach and solution to handle real complex problems in an easy and meaningful way [1]. Hard computing methods depend on quantitative values with expensive solutions and lack of ability to represent the problem in real life due to some uncertainties. In contrast, soft computing approaches act as alternative tools to deal with the reasoning of complex problems [2]. Using soft computing methods such as fuzzy logic, neural network, genetic algorithms or a combination of these allows achieving robustness, tractable and more practical solutions. Generally, two types of methods are used for analyzing and modeling dynamic systems including quantitative and qualitative approaches.
An Accelerator for Rule Induction in Fuzzy Rough Theory
Zhao, Suyun, Dai, Zhigang, Wang, Xizhao, Ni, Peng, Luo, Hengheng, Chen, Hong, Li, Cuiping
Rule-based classifier, that extract a subset of induced rules to efficiently learn/mine while preserving the discernibility information, plays a crucial role in human-explainable artificial intelligence. However, in this era of big data, rule induction on the whole datasets is computationally intensive. So far, to the best of our knowledge, no known method focusing on accelerating rule induction has been reported. This is first study to consider the acceleration technique to reduce the scale of computation in rule induction. We propose an accelerator for rule induction based on fuzzy rough theory; the accelerator can avoid redundant computation and accelerate the building of a rule classifier. First, a rule induction method based on consistence degree, called Consistence-based Value Reduction (CVR), is proposed and used as basis to accelerate. Second, we introduce a compacted search space termed Key Set, which only contains the key instances required to update the induced rule, to conduct value reduction. The monotonicity of Key Set ensures the feasibility of our accelerator. Third, a rule-induction accelerator is designed based on Key Set, and it is theoretically guaranteed to display the same results as the unaccelerated version. Specifically, the rank preservation property of Key Set ensures consistency between the rule induction achieved by the accelerator and the unaccelerated method. Finally, extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed accelerator can perform remarkably faster than the unaccelerated rule-based classifier methods, especially on datasets with numerous instances.
Introducing Randomized High Order Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as Reservoir Computing Models: A Case Study in Solar Energy and Load Forecasting
Orang, Omid, Silva, Petrônio Cândido de Lima, Guimarães, Frederico Gadelha
Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) have emerged as an interpretable signed weighted digraph method consisting of nodes (concepts) and weights which represent the dependencies among the concepts. Although FCMs have attained considerable achievements in various time series prediction applications, designing an FCM model with time-efficient training method is still an open challenge. Thus, this paper introduces a novel univariate time series forecasting technique, which is composed of a group of randomized high order FCM models labeled R-HFCM. The novelty of the proposed R-HFCM model is relevant to merging the concepts of FCM and Echo State Network (ESN) as an efficient and particular family of Reservoir Computing (RC) models, where the least squares algorithm is applied to train the model. From another perspective, the structure of R-HFCM consists of the input layer, reservoir layer, and output layer in which only the output layer is trainable while the weights of each sub-reservoir components are selected randomly and keep constant during the training process. As case studies, this model considers solar energy forecasting with public data for Brazilian solar stations as well as Malaysia dataset, which includes hourly electric load and temperature data of the power supply company of the city of Johor in Malaysia. The experiment also includes the effect of the map size, activation function, the presence of bias and the size of the reservoir on the accuracy of R-HFCM method. The obtained results confirm the outperformance of the proposed R-HFCM model in comparison to the other methods. This study provides evidence that FCM can be a new way to implement a reservoir of dynamics in time series modelling.
Granule Description based on Compound Concepts
Zhou, Jianqin, Yang, Sichun, Wang, Xifeng, Liu, Wanquan
Concise granule descriptions for definable granules and approaching descriptions for indefinable granules are challenging and important issues in granular computing. The concept with only common attributes has been intensively studied. To investigate the granules with some special needs, we propose a novel type of compound concepts in this paper, i.e., common-and-necessary concept. Based on the definitions of concept-forming operations, the logical formulas are derived for each of the following types of concepts: formal concept, object-induced three-way concept, object oriented concept and common-and-necessary concept. Furthermore, by utilizing the logical relationship among various concepts, we have derived concise and unified equivalent conditions for definable granules and approaching descriptions for indefinable granules for all four kinds of concepts.
A integrating critic-waspas group decision making method under interval-valued q-rung orthogonal fuzzy enviroment
This paper provides a new tool for multi-attribute multi-objective group decision-making with unknown weights and attributes' weights. An interval-valued generalized orthogonal fuzzy group decision-making method is proposed based on the Yager operator and CRITIC-WASPAS method with unknown weights. The method integrates Yager operator, CRITIC, WASPAS, and interval value generalized orthogonal fuzzy group. Its merits lie in allowing decision-makers greater freedom, avoiding bias due to decision-makers' weight, and yielding accurate evaluation. The research includes: expanding the interval value generalized distance measurement method for comparison and application of similarity measurement and decision-making methods; developing a new scoring function for comparing the size of interval value generalized orthogonal fuzzy numbers,and further existing researches. The proposed interval-valued Yager weighted average operator (IVq-ROFYWA) and Yager weighted geometric average operator (IVq-ROFYWG) are used for information aggregation. The CRITIC-WASPAS combines the advantages of CRITIC and WASPAS, which not only work in the single decision but also serve as the basis of the group decision. The in-depth study of the decision-maker's weight matrix overcomes the shortcomings of taking the decision as a whole, and weighs the decision-maker's information aggregation. Finally, the group decision algorithm is used for hypertension risk management. The results are consistent with decision-makers' opinions. Practice and case analysis have proved the effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper. At the same time, it is compared with other operators and decision-making methods, which proves the method effective and feasible.
The Parametric Cost Function Approximation: A new approach for multistage stochastic programming
Powell, Warren B, Ghadimi, Saeed
The most common approaches for solving multistage stochastic programming problems in the research literature have been to either use value functions ("dynamic programming") or scenario trees ("stochastic programming") to approximate the impact of a decision now on the future. By contrast, common industry practice is to use a deterministic approximation of the future which is easier to understand and solve, but which is criticized for ignoring uncertainty. We show that a parameterized version of a deterministic optimization model can be an effective way of handling uncertainty without the complexity of either stochastic programming or dynamic programming. We present the idea of a parameterized deterministic optimization model, and in particular a deterministic lookahead model, as a powerful strategy for many complex stochastic decision problems. This approach can handle complex, high-dimensional state variables, and avoids the usual approximations associated with scenario trees or value function approximations. Instead, it introduces the offline challenge of designing and tuning the parameterization. We illustrate the idea by using a series of application settings, and demonstrate its use in a nonstationary energy storage problem with rolling forecasts.