Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a scoping review of ML in wildfire science and management. Our objective is to improve awareness of ML among wildfire scientists and managers, as well as illustrate the challenging range of problems in wildfire science available to data scientists. We first present an overview of popular ML approaches used in wildfire science to date, and then review their use in wildfire science within six problem domains: 1) fuels characterization, fire detection, and mapping; 2) fire weather and climate change; 3) fire occurrence, susceptibility, and risk; 4) fire behavior prediction; 5) fire effects; and 6) fire management. We also discuss the advantages and limitations of various ML approaches and identify opportunities for future advances in wildfire science and management within a data science context. We identified 298 relevant publications, where the most frequently used ML methods included random forests, MaxEnt, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms. There exists opportunities to apply more current ML methods (e.g., deep learning and agent based learning) in wildfire science. However, despite the ability of ML models to learn on their own, expertise in wildfire science is necessary to ensure realistic modelling of fire processes across multiple scales, while the complexity of some ML methods requires sophisticated knowledge for their application. Finally, we stress that the wildfire research and management community plays an active role in providing relevant, high quality data for use by practitioners of ML methods.

Fuzzy c-means based clustering algorithms are frequently used for Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy classifier antecedent parameter estimation. One rule is initialized from each cluster. However, most of these clustering algorithms are unsupervised, which waste valuable label information in the training data. This paper proposes a supervised enhanced soft subspace clustering (SESSC) algorithm, which considers simultaneously the within-cluster compactness, between-cluster separation, and label information in clustering. It can effectively deal with high-dimensional data, be used as a classifier alone, or be integrated into a TSK fuzzy classifier to further improve its performance. Experiments on nine UCI datasets from various application domains demonstrated that SESSC based initialization outperformed other clustering approaches, especially when the number of rules is small.

The aim of this study was to approach a difficult regression task on highly unbalanced data regarding active theater of war in Afghanistan. Our focus was set on predicting the negative events number without distinguishing precise nature of the events given historical data on investment and negative events per each of predefined 400 Afghanistan districts. In contrast with previous research on the matter, we propose an approach to analysis of time series data that benefits from non-conventional aggregation of these territorial entities. By carrying out initial exploratory data analysis we demonstrate that dividing data according to our proposal allows to identify strong trend and seasonal components in the selected target variable. Utilizing this approach we also tried to estimate which data regarding investments is most important for prediction performance. Based on our exploratory analysis and previous research we prepared 5 sets of independent variables that were fed to 3 machine learning regression models. The results expressed by mean absolute and mean square errors indicate that leveraging historical data regarding target variable allows for reasonable performance, however unfortunately other proposed independent variables does not seem to improve prediction quality.

Approaches based on computing with words find good applicability in decision making systems. Predominantly finding their basis in type-1 fuzzy sets, computing with words approaches employ type-1 fuzzy sets as semantics of the linguistic terms. However, type-2 fuzzy sets have been proven to be scientifically more appropriate to represent linguistic information in practical systems. They take into account both the intra-uncertainty as well as the inter-uncertainty in cases where the linguistic information comes from a group of experts. Hence in this paper, we propose to introduce linguistic terms whose semantics are denoted by interval type-2 fuzzy sets within the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set framework, resulting in type-2 fuzzy sets based hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets. We also introduce a novel method of computing type-2 fuzzy envelopes out of multiple interval type-2 fuzzy sets with trapezoidal membership functions. Furthermore, the proposed framework with interval type-2 fuzzy sets is applied on a supplier performance evaluation scenario. Since humans are predominantly involved in the entire process of supply chain, their feedback is crucial while deciding many factors. Towards the end of the paper, we compare our presented model with various existing models and demonstrate the advantages of the former.

Novel applications of artificial intelligence for tuning the parameters of industrial machines for optimal performance are emerging at a fast pace. Tuning the combine harvesters and improving the machine performance can dramatically minimize the wastes during harvesting, and it is also beneficial to machine maintenance. Literature includes several soft computing, machine learning and optimization methods that had been used to model the function of harvesters of various crops. Due to the complexity of the problem, machine learning methods had been recently proposed to predict the optimal performance with promising results. In this paper, through proposing a novel hybrid machine learning model based on artificial neural networks integrated with particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO), the performance analysis of a common combine harvester is presented. The hybridization of machine learning methods with soft computing techniques has recently shown promising results to improve the performance of the combine harvesters. This research aims at improving the results further by providing more stable models with higher accuracy.

This paper studies the statistical theory of batch data reinforcement learning with function approximation. Consider the off-policy evaluation problem, which is to estimate the cumulative value of a new target policy from logged history generated by unknown behavioral policies. We study a regression-based fitted Q iteration method, and show that it is equivalent to a model-based method that estimates a conditional mean embedding of the transition operator. We prove that this method is information-theoretically optimal and has nearly minimal estimation error. In particular, by leveraging contraction property of Markov processes and martingale concentration, we establish a finite-sample instance-dependent error upper bound and a nearly-matching minimax lower bound. The policy evaluation error depends sharply on a restricted $\chi^2$-divergence over the function class between the long-term distribution of the target policy and the distribution of past data. This restricted $\chi^2$-divergence is both instance-dependent and function-class-dependent. It characterizes the statistical limit of off-policy evaluation. Further, we provide an easily computable confidence bound for the policy evaluator, which may be useful for optimistic planning and safe policy improvement.

This paper revisits the celebrated temporal difference (TD) learning algorithm for the policy evaluation in reinforcement learning. Typically, the performance of the plain-vanilla TD algorithm is sensitive to the choice of stepsizes. Oftentimes, TD suffers from slow convergence. Motivated by the tight connection between the TD learning algorithm and the stochastic gradient methods, we develop the first adaptive variant of the TD learning algorithm with linear function approximation that we term AdaTD. In contrast to the original TD, AdaTD is robust or less sensitive to the choice of stepsizes. Analytically, we establish that to reach an $\epsilon$ accuracy, the number of iterations needed is $\tilde{O}(\epsilon^2\ln^4\frac{1}{\epsilon}/\ln^4\frac{1}{\rho})$, where $\rho$ represents the speed of the underlying Markov chain converges to the stationary distribution. This implies that the iteration complexity of AdaTD is no worse than that of TD in the worst case. Going beyond TD, we further develop an adaptive variant of TD($\lambda$), which is referred to as AdaTD($\lambda$). We evaluate the empirical performance of AdaTD and AdaTD($\lambda$) on several standard reinforcement learning tasks in OpenAI Gym on both linear and nonlinear function approximation, which demonstrate the effectiveness of our new approaches over existing ones.

Reinforcement learning agents usually learn from scratch, which requires a large number of interactions with the environment. This is quite different from the learning process of human. When faced with a new task, human naturally have the common sense and use the prior knowledge to derive an initial policy and guide the learning process afterwards. Although the prior knowledge may be not fully applicable to the new task, the learning process is significantly sped up since the initial policy ensures a quick-start of learning and intermediate guidance allows to avoid unnecessary exploration. Taking this inspiration, we propose knowledge guided policy network (KoGuN), a novel framework that combines human prior suboptimal knowledge with reinforcement learning. Our framework consists of a fuzzy rule controller to represent human knowledge and a refine module to fine-tune suboptimal prior knowledge. The proposed framework is end-to-end and can be combined with existing policy-based reinforcement learning algorithm. We conduct experiments on both discrete and continuous control tasks. The empirical results show that our approach, which combines human suboptimal knowledge and RL, achieves significant improvement on learning efficiency of flat RL algorithms, even with very low-performance human prior knowledge.

We develop provably efficient reinforcement learning algorithms for two-player zero-sum Markov games in which the two players simultaneously take actions. To incorporate function approximation, we consider a family of Markov games where the reward function and transition kernel possess a linear structure. Both the offline and online settings of the problems are considered. In the offline setting, we control both players and the goal is to find the Nash Equilibrium efficiently by minimizing the worst-case duality gap. In the online setting, we control a single player to play against an arbitrary opponent and the goal is to minimize the regret. For both settings, we propose an optimistic variant of the least-squares minimax value iteration algorithm. We show that our algorithm is computationally efficient and provably achieves an $\tilde O(\sqrt{d^3 H^3 T})$ upper bound on the duality gap and regret, without requiring additional assumptions on the sampling model. We highlight that our setting requires overcoming several new challenges that are absent in Markov decision processes or turn-based Markov games. In particular, to achieve optimism in simultaneous-move Marko games, we construct both upper and lower confidence bounds of the value function, and then compute the optimistic policy by solving a general-sum matrix game with these bounds as the payoff matrices. As finding the Nash Equilibrium of such a general-sum game is computationally hard, our algorithm instead solves for a Coarse Correlated Equilibrium (CCE), which can be obtained efficiently via linear programming. To our best knowledge, such a CCE-based scheme for implementing optimism has not appeared in the literature and might be of interest in its own right.

The current paper studies the problem of agnostic $Q$-learning with function approximation in deterministic systems where the optimal $Q$-function is approximable by a function in the class $\mathcal{F}$ with approximation error $\delta \ge 0$. We propose a novel recursion-based algorithm and show that if $\delta = O\left(\rho/\sqrt{\dim_E}\right)$, then one can find the optimal policy using $O\left(\dim_E\right)$ trajectories, where $\rho$ is the gap between the optimal $Q$-value of the best actions and that of the second-best actions and $\dim_E$ is the Eluder dimension of $\mathcal{F}$. Our result has two implications: 1) In conjunction with the lower bound in [Du et al., ICLR 2020], our upper bound suggests that the condition $\delta = \widetilde{\Theta}\left(\rho/\sqrt{\mathrm{dim}_E}\right)$ is necessary and sufficient for algorithms with polynomial sample complexity. 2) In conjunction with the lower bound in [Wen and Van Roy, NIPS 2013], our upper bound suggests that the sample complexity $\widetilde{\Theta}\left(\mathrm{dim}_E\right)$ is tight even in the agnostic setting. Therefore, we settle the open problem on agnostic $Q$-learning proposed in [Wen and Van Roy, NIPS 2013]. We further extend our algorithm to the stochastic reward setting and obtain similar results.