In the advent of the novel coronavirus epidemic since December 2019, governments and authorities have been struggling to make critical decisions under high uncertainty at their best efforts. Composite Monte-Carlo (CMC) simulation is a forecasting method which extrapolates available data which are broken down from multiple correlated/casual micro-data sources into many possible future outcomes by drawing random samples from some probability distributions. For instance, the overall trend and propagation of the infested cases in China are influenced by the temporal-spatial data of the nearby cities around the Wuhan city (where the virus is originated from), in terms of the population density, travel mobility, medical resources such as hospital beds and the timeliness of quarantine control in each city etc. Hence a CMC is reliable only up to the closeness of the underlying statistical distribution of a CMC, that is supposed to represent the behaviour of the future events, and the correctness of the composite data relationships. In this paper, a case study of using CMC that is enhanced by deep learning network and fuzzy rule induction for gaining better stochastic insights about the epidemic development is experimented. Instead of applying simplistic and uniform assumptions for a MC which is a common practice, a deep learning-based CMC is used in conjunction of fuzzy rule induction techniques. As a result, decision makers are benefited from a better fitted MC outputs complemented by min-max rules that foretell about the extreme ranges of future possibilities with respect to the epidemic.

Although DST has many advantages in representing and dealing with uncertainty, but it is limited by some hypotheses and constraints that are hardly satisfied in some situation [3-6]. There are two main aspects. First, in DST a frame of discernment (FOD) must be composed of mutually exclusive elements, which is called the FOD's exclusiveness hypothesis. Second, in DST the sum of basic probabilities or belief m(.) in a basic probability assignment (BPA) must be 1 (or basic probabilities can not be assigned to elements outside the FOD), which is called the BPA's completeness constraint. To overcome the above-mentioned limitations in DST, a new generalization of DST, called D number theory (DNT), has been proposed in recently [7, 8] for the fusion of uncertain information with non-exclusiveness and incompleteness. The theory of DNT stems from the concept of D numbers [9-16], and aims to build a more sophisticated framework for representing and reasoning with uncertain information similar to DST from a generic setmembership perspective, in which DNT relaxes the exclusiveness constraint of elements in FOD and completeness assumption of BPA in DST.

Supervised learning in machine learning can be described in terms of function approximation. Given a dataset comprised of inputs and outputs, we assume that there is an unknown underlying function that is consistent in mapping inputs to outputs in the target domain and resulted in the dataset. We then use supervised learning algorithms to approximate this function. Neural networks are an example of a supervised machine learning algorithm that is perhaps best understood in the context of function approximation. This can be demonstrated with examples of neural networks approximating simple one-dimensional functions that aid in developing the intuition for what is being learned by the model.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have achieved lots of success on graph-structured data. In light of this, there has been increasing interest in studying their representation power. One line of work focuses on the universal approximation of permutation-invariant functions by certain classes of GNNs, and another demonstrates the limitation of GNNs via graph isomorphism tests. Our work connects these two perspectives and proves their equivalence. We further develop a framework of the representation power of GNNs with the language of sigma-algebra, which incorporates both viewpoints.

We developed a Nonlinear Level-set Learning (NLL) method for dimensionality reduction in high-dimensional function approximation with small data. This work is motivated by a variety of design tasks in real-world engineering applications, where practitioners would replace their computationally intensive physical models (e.g., high-resolution fluid simulators) with fast-to-evaluate predictive machine learning models, so as to accelerate the engineering design processes. There are two major challenges in constructing such predictive models: (a) high-dimensional inputs (e.g., many independent design parameters) and (b) small training data, generated by running extremely time-consuming simulations. Thus, reducing the input dimension is critical to alleviate the over-fitting issue caused by data insufficiency. Existing methods, including sliced inverse regression and active subspace approaches, reduce the input dimension by learning a linear coordinate transformation; our main contribution is to extend the transformation approach to a nonlinear regime.

SARSA is an on-policy algorithm to learn a Markov decision process policy in reinforcement learning. We investigate the SARSA algorithm with linear function approximation under the non-i.i.d.\ setting, where a single sample trajectory is available. With a Lipschitz continuous policy improvement operator that is smooth enough, SARSA has been shown to converge asymptotically. However, its non-asymptotic analysis is challenging and remains unsolved due to the non-i.i.d. In this paper, we develop a novel technique to explicitly characterize the stochastic bias of a type of stochastic approximation procedures with time-varying Markov transition kernels.

Q-learning with function approximation is one of the most popular methods in reinforcement learning. Though the idea of using function approximation was proposed at least 60 years ago, even in the simplest setup, i.e, approximating Q-functions with linear functions, it is still an open problem how to design a provably efficient algorithm that learns a near-optimal policy. The key challenges are how to efficiently explore the state space and how to decide when to stop exploring in conjunction with the function approximation scheme. The current paper presents a provably efficient algorithm for Q-learning with linear function approximation. Under certain regularity assumptions, our algorithm, Difference Maximization Q-learning, combined with linear function approximation, returns a near-optimal policy using polynomial number of trajectories.

Policy evaluation with smooth and nonlinear function approximation has shown great potential for reinforcement learning. Compared to linear function approxi- mation, it allows for using a richer class of approximation functions such as the neural networks. Traditional algorithms are based on two timescales stochastic approximation whose convergence rate is often slow. This paper focuses on an offline setting where a trajectory of $m$ state-action pairs are observed. We formulate the policy evaluation problem as a non-convex primal-dual, finite-sum optimization problem, whose primal sub-problem is non-convex and dual sub-problem is strongly concave.

Adaptive binarization methodologies threshold the intensity of the pixels with respect to adjacent pixels exploiting the integral images. In turn, the integral images are generally computed optimally using the summed-area-table algorithm (SAT). This document presents a new adaptive binarization technique based on fuzzy integral images through an efficient design of a modified SAT for fuzzy integrals. We define this new methodology as FLAT (Fuzzy Local Adaptive Thresholding). The experimental results show that the proposed methodology have produced an image quality thresholding often better than traditional algorithms and saliency neural networks. We propose a new generalization of the Sugeno and CF 1,2 integrals to improve existing results with an efficient integral image computation. Therefore, these new generalized fuzzy integrals can be used as a tool for grayscale processing in real-time and deep-learning applications. Index Terms: Image Thresholding, Image Processing, Fuzzy Integrals, Aggregation Functions

To effectively train Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy systems for regression problems, a Mini-Batch Gradient Descent with Regularization, DropRule, and AdaBound (MBGD-RDA) algorithm was recently proposed. It has demonstrated superior performances; however, there are also some limitations, e.g., it does not allow the user to specify the number of rules directly, and only Gaussian MFs can be used. This paper proposes two variants of MBGD-RDA to remedy these limitations, and show that they outperform the original MBGD-RDA and the classical ANFIS algorithms with the same number of rules. Furthermore, we also propose a rule pruning algorithm for TSK fuzzy systems, which can reduce the number of rules without significantly sacrificing the regression performance. Experiments showed that the rules obtained from pruning are generally better than training them from scratch directly, especially when Gaussian MFs are used.