Recent advances in the field of meta-learning have tackled domains consisting of large numbers of small ("few-shot") supervised learning tasks. Meta-learning algorithms must be able to rapidly adapt to any individual few-shot task, fitting to a small support set within a task and using it to predict the labels of the task's query set. This problem setting can be extended to the Bayesian context, wherein rather than predicting a single label for each query data point, a model predicts a distribution of labels capturing its uncertainty. Successful methods in this domain include Bayesian ensembling of MAML-based models, Bayesian neural networks, and Gaussian processes with learned deep kernel and mean functions. While Gaussian processes have a robust Bayesian interpretation in the meta-learning context, they do not naturally model non-Gaussian predictive posteriors for expressing uncertainty. In this paper, we design a theoretically principled method, VMGP, extending Gaussian-process-based meta-learning to allow for high-quality, arbitrary non-Gaussian uncertainty predictions. On benchmark environments with complex non-smooth or discontinuous structure, we find our VMGP method performs significantly better than existing Bayesian meta-learning baselines.

The recent phenomenal success of language models has reinvigorated machine learning research, and large sequence models such as transformers are being applied to a variety of domains. One important problem class that has remained relatively elusive however is purposeful adaptive behavior. Currently there is a common perception that sequence models "lack the understanding of the cause and effect of their actions" leading them to draw incorrect inferences due to auto-suggestive delusions. In this report we explain where this mismatch originates, and show that it can be resolved by treating actions as causal interventions. Finally, we show that in supervised learning, one can teach a system to condition or intervene on data by training with factual and counterfactual error signals respectively.

A wide variety of methods have been developed to enable lifelong learning in conventional deep neural networks. However, to succeed, these methods require a `batch' of samples to be available and visited multiple times during training. While this works well in a static setting, these methods continue to suffer in a more realistic situation where data arrives in \emph{online streaming manner}. We empirically demonstrate that the performance of current approaches degrades if the input is obtained as a stream of data with the following restrictions: $(i)$ each instance comes one at a time and can be seen only once, and $(ii)$ the input data violates the i.i.d assumption, i.e., there can be a class-based correlation. We propose a novel approach (CIOSL) for the class-incremental learning in an \emph{online streaming setting} to address these challenges. The proposed approach leverages implicit and explicit dual weight regularization and experience replay. The implicit regularization is leveraged via the knowledge distillation, while the explicit regularization incorporates a novel approach for parameter regularization by learning the joint distribution of the buffer replay and the current sample. Also, we propose an efficient online memory replay and replacement buffer strategy that significantly boosts the model's performance. Extensive experiments and ablation on challenging datasets show the efficacy of the proposed method.

The last decade has seen the rise of Adversarial Machine Learning (AML). This discipline studies how to manipulate data to fool inference engines, and how to protect those systems against such manipulation attacks. Extensive work on attacks against regression and classification systems is available, while little attention has been paid to attacks against time series forecasting systems. In this paper, we propose a decision analysis based attacking strategy that could be utilized against Bayesian forecasting dynamic models.

Probabilistic numerical solvers for ordinary differential equations compute posterior distributions over the solution of an initial value problem via Bayesian inference. In this paper, we leverage their probabilistic formulation to seamlessly include additional information as general likelihood terms. We show that second-order differential equations should be directly provided to the solver, instead of transforming the problem to first order. Additionally, by including higher-order information or physical conservation laws in the model, solutions become more accurate and more physically meaningful. Lastly, we demonstrate the utility of flexible information operators by solving differential-algebraic equations. In conclusion, the probabilistic formulation of numerical solvers offers a flexible way to incorporate various types of information, thus improving the resulting solutions.

We model here an epistemic bias we call \textit{interpretive blindness} (IB). IB is a special problem for learning from testimony, in which one acquires information only from text or conversation. We show that IB follows from a co-dependence between background beliefs and interpretation in a Bayesian setting and the nature of contemporary testimony. We argue that a particular characteristic contemporary testimony, \textit{argumentative completeness}, can preclude learning in hierarchical Bayesian settings, even in the presence of constraints that are designed to promote good epistemic practices.

Autonomous robots can benefit greatly from human-provided semantic characterizations of uncertain task environments and states. However, the development of integrated strategies which let robots model, communicate, and act on such soft data remains challenging. Here, a framework is presented for active semantic sensing and planning in human-robot teams which addresses these gaps by formally combining the benefits of online sampling-based POMDP policies, multi-modal semantic interaction, and Bayesian data fusion. This approach lets humans opportunistically impose model structure and extend the range of semantic soft data in uncertain environments by sketching and labeling arbitrary landmarks across the environment. Dynamic updating of the environment while searching for a mobile target allows robotic agents to actively query humans for novel and relevant semantic data, thereby improving beliefs of unknown environments and target states for improved online planning. Target search simulations show significant improvements in time and belief state estimates required for interception versus conventional planning based solely on robotic sensing. Human subject studies demonstrate a average doubling in dynamic target capture rate compared to the lone robot case, employing reasoning over a range of user characteristics and interaction modalities. Video of interaction can be found at https://youtu.be/Eh-82ZJ1o4I.

Graphs from complex systems often share a partial underlying structure across domains while retaining individual features. Thus, identifying common structures can shed light on the underlying signal, for instance, when applied to scientific discoveries or clinical diagnoses. Furthermore, growing evidence shows that the shared structure across domains boosts the estimation power of graphs, particularly for high-dimensional data. However, building a joint estimator to extract the common structure may be more complicated than it seems, most often due to data heterogeneity across sources. This manuscript surveys recent work on statistical inference of joint Gaussian graphical models, identifying model structures that fit various data generation processes. Simulations under different data generation processes are implemented with detailed discussions on the choice of models.

Data-efficient learning algorithms are essential in many practical applications for which data collection and labeling is expensive or infeasible, e.g., for autonomous cars. To address this problem, meta-learning infers an inductive bias from a set of meta-training tasks in order to learn new, but related, task using a small number of samples. Most studies assume the meta-learner to have access to labeled data sets from a large number of tasks. In practice, one may have available only unlabeled data sets from the tasks, requiring a costly labeling procedure to be carried out before use in standard meta-learning schemes. To decrease the number of labeling requests for meta-training tasks, this paper introduces an information-theoretic active task selection mechanism which quantifies the epistemic uncertainty via disagreements among the predictions obtained under different inductive biases. We detail an instantiation for nonparametric methods based on Gaussian Process Regression, and report its empirical performance results that compare favourably against existing heuristic acquisition mechanisms.

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples is vital for developing machine learning based models for critical safety systems. Common approaches for OOD detection assume access to some OOD samples during training which may not be available in a real-life scenario. Instead, we utilize the {\em predictive normalized maximum likelihood} (pNML) learner, in which no assumptions are made on the tested input. We derive an explicit expression of the pNML and its generalization error, denoted as the {\em regret}, for a single layer neural network (NN). We show that this learner generalizes well when (i) the test vector resides in a subspace spanned by the eigenvectors associated with the large eigenvalues of the empirical correlation matrix of the training data, or (ii) the test sample is far from the decision boundary. Furthermore, we describe how to efficiently apply the derived pNML regret to any pretrained deep NN, by employing the explicit pNML for the last layer, followed by the softmax function. Applying the derived regret to deep NN requires neither additional tunable parameters nor extra data. We extensively evaluate our approach on 74 OOD detection benchmarks using DenseNet-100, ResNet-34, and WideResNet-40 models trained with CIFAR-100, CIFAR-10, SVHN, and ImageNet-30 showing a significant improvement of up to 15.6\% over recent leading methods.