Deep operator learning has emerged as a promising tool for reduced-order modelling and PDE model discovery. Leveraging the expressive power of deep neural networks, especially in high dimensions, such methods learn the mapping between functional state variables. While proposed methods have assumed noise only in the dependent variables, experimental and numerical data for operator learning typically exhibit noise in the independent variables as well, since both variables represent signals that are subject to measurement error. In regression on scalar data, failure to account for noisy independent variables can lead to biased parameter estimates. With noisy independent variables, linear models fitted via ordinary least squares (OLS) will show attenuation bias, wherein the slope will be underestimated. In this work, we derive an analogue of attenuation bias for linear operator regression with white noise in both the independent and dependent variables. In the nonlinear setting, we computationally demonstrate underprediction of the action of the Burgers operator in the presence of noise in the independent variable. We propose error-in-variables (EiV) models for two operator regression methods, MOR-Physics and DeepONet, and demonstrate that these new models reduce bias in the presence of noisy independent variables for a variety of operator learning problems. Considering the Burgers operator in 1D and 2D, we demonstrate that EiV operator learning robustly recovers operators in high-noise regimes that defeat OLS operator learning. We also introduce an EiV model for time-evolving PDE discovery and show that OLS and EiV perform similarly in learning the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky evolution operator from corrupted data, suggesting that the effect of bias in OLS operator learning depends on the regularity of the target operator.

We consider 1-dimensional location estimation, where we estimate a parameter $\lambda$ from $n$ samples $\lambda + \eta_i$, with each $\eta_i$ drawn i.i.d. from a known distribution $f$. For fixed $f$ the maximum-likelihood estimate (MLE) is well-known to be optimal in the limit as $n \to \infty$: it is asymptotically normal with variance matching the Cram\'er-Rao lower bound of $\frac{1}{n\mathcal{I}}$, where $\mathcal{I}$ is the Fisher information of $f$. However, this bound does not hold for finite $n$, or when $f$ varies with $n$. We show for arbitrary $f$ and $n$ that one can recover a similar theory based on the Fisher information of a smoothed version of $f$, where the smoothing radius decays with $n$.

Rule set learning has long been studied and has recently been frequently revisited due to the need for interpretable models. Still, existing methods have several shortcomings: 1) most recent methods require a binary feature matrix as input, while learning rules directly from numeric variables is understudied; 2) existing methods impose orders among rules, either explicitly or implicitly, which harms interpretability; and 3) currently no method exists for learning probabilistic rule sets for multi-class target variables (there is only one for probabilistic rule lists). We propose TURS, for Truly Unordered Rule Sets, which addresses these shortcomings. We first formalize the problem of learning truly unordered rule sets. To resolve conflicts caused by overlapping rules, i.e., instances covered by multiple rules, we propose a novel approach that exploits the probabilistic properties of our rule sets. We next develop a two-phase heuristic algorithm that learns rule sets by carefully growing rules. An important innovation is that we use a surrogate score to take the global potential of the rule set into account when learning a local rule. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that, compared to non-probabilistic and (explicitly or implicitly) ordered state-of-the-art methods, our method learns rule sets that not only have better interpretability but also better predictive performance.

Autonomous agents operating in perceptually aliased environments should ideally be able to solve the data association problem. Yet, planning for future actions while considering this problem is not trivial. State of the art approaches therefore use multi-modal hypotheses to represent the states of the agent and of the environment. However, explicitly considering all possible data associations, the number of hypotheses grows exponentially with the planning horizon. As such, the corresponding Belief Space Planning problem quickly becomes unsolvable. Moreover, under hard computational budget constraints, some non-negligible hypotheses must eventually be pruned in both planning and inference. Nevertheless, the two processes are generally treated separately and the effect of budget constraints in one process over the other was barely studied. We present a computationally efficient method to solve the nonmyopic Belief Space Planning problem while reasoning about data association. Moreover, we rigorously analyze the effects of budget constraints in both inference and planning.

In the previous post we have learnt about the importance of Latent Variables in Bayesian modelling. Now starting from this post, we will see Bayesian in action. We will walk through different aspects of machine learning and see how Bayesian methods will help us in designing the solutions. And also the additional capabilities and insights we can have by using it. The sections which follows are generally known as Bayesian inference.

We consider an expected-value ranking and selection problem where all k solutions' simulation outputs depend on a common uncertain input model. Given that the uncertainty of the input model is captured by a probability simplex on a finite support, we define the most probable best (MPB) to be the solution whose probability of being optimal is the largest. To devise an efficient sampling algorithm to find the MPB, we first derive a lower bound to the large deviation rate of the probability of falsely selecting the MPB, then formulate an optimal computing budget allocation (OCBA) problem to find the optimal static sampling ratios for all solution-input model pairs that maximize the lower bound. We devise a series of sequential algorithms that apply interpretable and computationally efficient sampling rules and prove their sampling ratios achieve the optimality conditions for the OCBA problem as the simulation budget increases. The algorithms are benchmarked against a state-of-the-art sequential sampling algorithm designed for contextual ranking and selection problems and demonstrated to have superior empirical performances at finding the MPB.

Bayesian modeling helps applied researchers articulate assumptions about their data and develop models tailored for specific applications. Thanks to good methods for approximate posterior inference, researchers can now easily build, use, and revise complicated Bayesian models for large and rich data. These capabilities, however, bring into focus the problem of model criticism. Researchers need tools to diagnose the fitness of their models, to understand where they fall short, and to guide their revision. In this paper we develop a new method for Bayesian model criticism, the population predictive check (Pop-PC). Pop-PCs are built on posterior predictive checks (PPCs), a seminal method that checks a model by assessing the posterior predictive distribution on the observed data. However, PPCs use the data twice -- both to calculate the posterior predictive and to evaluate it -- which can lead to overconfident assessments of the quality of a model. Pop-PCs, in contrast, compare the posterior predictive distribution to a draw from the population distribution, a heldout dataset. This method blends Bayesian modeling with frequenting assessment. Unlike the PPC, we prove that the Pop-PC is properly calibrated. Empirically, we study Pop-PC on classical regression and a hierarchical model of text data.

One of the main challenges in autonomous racing is to design algorithms for motion planning at high speed, and across complex racing courses. End-to-end trajectory synthesis has been previously proposed where the trajectory for the ego vehicle is computed based on camera images from the racecar. This is done in a supervised learning setting using behavioral cloning techniques. In this paper, we address the limitations of behavioral cloning methods for trajectory synthesis by introducing Differential Bayesian Filtering (DBF), which uses probabilistic B\'ezier curves as a basis for inferring optimal autonomous racing trajectories based on Bayesian inference. We introduce a trajectory sampling mechanism and combine it with a filtering process which is able to push the car to its physical driving limits. The performance of DBF is evaluated on the DeepRacing Formula One simulation environment and compared with several other trajectory synthesis approaches as well as human driving performance. DBF achieves the fastest lap time, and the fastest speed, by pushing the racecar closer to its limits of control while always remaining inside track bounds.

Maintaining an up-to-date map to reflect recent changes in the scene is very important, particularly in situations involving repeated traversals by a robot operating in an environment over an extended period. Undetected changes may cause a deterioration in map quality, leading to poor localization, inefficient operations, and lost robots. Volumetric methods, such as truncated signed distance functions (TSDFs), have quickly gained traction due to their real-time production of a dense and detailed map, though map updating in scenes that change over time remains a challenge. We propose a framework that introduces a novel probabilistic object state representation to track object pose changes in semi-static scenes. The representation jointly models a stationarity score and a TSDF change measure for each object. A Bayesian update rule that incorporates both geometric and semantic information is derived to achieve consistent online map maintenance. To extensively evaluate our approach alongside the state-of-the-art, we release a novel real-world dataset in a warehouse environment. We also evaluate on the public ToyCar dataset. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on the reconstruction quality of semi-static environments.

Model hubs with many pre-trained models (PTMs) have become a cornerstone of deep learning. Although built at a high cost, they remain \emph{under-exploited} -- practitioners usually pick one PTM from the provided model hub by popularity and then fine-tune the PTM to solve the target task. This na\"ive but common practice poses two obstacles to full exploitation of pre-trained model hubs: first, the PTM selection by popularity has no optimality guarantee, and second, only one PTM is used while the remaining PTMs are ignored. An alternative might be to consider all possible combinations of PTMs and extensively fine-tune each combination, but this would not only be prohibitive computationally but may also lead to statistical over-fitting. In this paper, we propose a new paradigm for exploiting model hubs that is intermediate between these extremes. The paradigm is characterized by two aspects: (1) We use an evidence maximization procedure to estimate the maximum value of label evidence given features extracted by pre-trained models. This procedure can rank all the PTMs in a model hub for various types of PTMs and tasks \emph{before fine-tuning}. (2) The best ranked PTM can either be fine-tuned and deployed if we have no preference for the model's architecture or the target PTM can be tuned by the top $K$ ranked PTMs via a Bayesian procedure that we propose. This procedure, which we refer to as \emph{B-Tuning}, not only improves upon specialized methods designed for tuning homogeneous PTMs, but also applies to the challenging problem of tuning heterogeneous PTMs where it yields a new level of benchmark performance.