Interactive reinforcement learning can effectively facilitate the agent training via human feedback. However, such methods often require the human teacher to know what is the correct action that the agent should take. In other words, if the human teacher is not always reliable, then it will not be consistently able to guide the agent through its training. In this paper, we propose a more effective interactive reinforcement learning system by introducing multiple trainers, namely Multi-Trainer Interactive Reinforcement Learning (MTIRL), which could aggregate the binary feedback from multiple non-perfect trainers into a more reliable reward for an agent training in a reward-sparse environment. In particular, our trainer feedback aggregation experiments show that our aggregation method has the best accuracy when compared with the majority voting, the weighted voting, and the Bayesian method. Finally, we conduct a grid-world experiment to show that the policy trained by the MTIRL with the review model is closer to the optimal policy than that without a review model.

We propose a family of First Hitting Diffusion Models (FHDM), deep generative models that generate data with a diffusion process that terminates at a random first hitting time. This yields an extension of the standard fixed-time diffusion models that terminate at a pre-specified deterministic time. Although standard diffusion models are designed for continuous unconstrained data, FHDM is naturally designed to learn distributions on continuous as well as a range of discrete and structure domains. Moreover, FHDM enables instance-dependent terminate time and accelerates the diffusion process to sample higher quality data with fewer diffusion steps. Technically, we train FHDM by maximum likelihood estimation on diffusion trajectories augmented from observed data with conditional first hitting processes (i.e., bridge) derived based on Doob's $h$-transform, deviating from the commonly used time-reversal mechanism. We apply FHDM to generate data in various domains such as point cloud (general continuous distribution), climate and geographical events on earth (continuous distribution on the sphere), unweighted graphs (distribution of binary matrices), and segmentation maps of 2D images (high-dimensional categorical distribution). We observe considerable improvement compared with the state-of-the-art approaches in both quality and speed.

Nonlinear dynamics are ubiquitous in science and engineering applications, but the physics of most complex systems is far from being fully understood. Discovering interpretable governing equations from measurement data can help us understand and predict the behavior of complex dynamic systems. Although extensive work has recently been done in this field, robustly distilling explicit model forms from very sparse data with considerable noise remains intractable. Moreover, quantifying and propagating the uncertainty of the identified system from noisy data is challenging, and relevant literature is still limited. To bridge this gap, we develop a novel Bayesian spline learning framework to identify parsimonious governing equations of nonlinear (spatio)temporal dynamics from sparse, noisy data with quantified uncertainty. The proposed method utilizes spline basis to handle the data scarcity and measurement noise, upon which a group of derivatives can be accurately computed to form a library of candidate model terms. The equation residuals are used to inform the spline learning in a Bayesian manner, where approximate Bayesian uncertainty calibration techniques are employed to approximate posterior distributions of the trainable parameters. To promote the sparsity, an iterative sequential-threshold Bayesian learning approach is developed, using the alternative direction optimization strategy to systematically approximate L0 sparsity constraints. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on multiple nonlinear dynamical systems governed by canonical ordinary and partial differential equations, and the merit/superiority of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparison with state-of-the-art methods.

We consider Bayesian inference from multiple time series described by a common state-space model (SSM) structure, but where different subsets of parameters are shared between different submodels. An important example is disease-dynamics, where parameters can be either disease or location specific. Parameter inference in these models can be improved by systematically aggregating information from the different time series, most notably for short series. Particle Gibbs (PG) samplers are an efficient class of algorithms for inference in SSMs, in particular when conjugacy can be exploited to marginalize out model parameters from the state update. We present two different PG samplers that marginalize static model parameters on-the-fly: one that updates one model at a time conditioned on the datasets for the other models, and one that concurrently updates all models by stacking them into a high-dimensional SSM. The distinctive features of each sampler make them suitable for different modelling contexts. We provide insights on when each sampler should be used and show that they can be combined to form an efficient PG sampler for a model with strong dependencies between states and parameters. The performance is illustrated on two linear-Gaussian examples and on a real-world example on the spread of mosquito-borne diseases.

Regime shifts in high-dimensional time series arise naturally in many applications, from neuroimaging to finance. This problem has received considerable attention in low-dimensional settings, with both Bayesian and frequentist methods used extensively for parameter estimation. The EM algorithm is a particularly popular strategy for parameter estimation in low-dimensional settings, although the statistical properties of the resulting estimates have not been well understood. Furthermore, its extension to high-dimensional time series has proved challenging. To overcome these challenges, in this paper we propose an approximate EM algorithm for Markov-switching VAR models that leads to efficient computation and also facilitates the investigation of asymptotic properties of the resulting parameter estimates. We establish the consistency of the proposed EM algorithm in high dimensions and investigate its performance via simulation studies.

This paper presents a fast algorithm for estimating hidden states of Bayesian state space models. The algorithm is a variation of amortized simulation-based inference algorithms, where a large number of artificial datasets are generated at the first stage, and then a flexible model is trained to predict the variables of interest. In contrast to those proposed earlier, the procedure described in this paper makes it possible to train estimators for hidden states by concentrating only on certain characteristics of the marginal posterior distributions and introducing inductive bias. Illustrations using the examples of the stochastic volatility model, nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, and seasonal adjustment procedure with breaks in seasonality show that the algorithm has sufficient accuracy for practical use. Moreover, after pretraining, which takes several hours, finding the posterior distribution for any dataset takes from hundredths to tenths of a second.

Many high-dimensional statistical inference problems are believed to possess inherent computational hardness. Various frameworks have been proposed to give rigorous evidence for such hardness, including lower bounds against restricted models of computation (such as low-degree functions), as well as methods rooted in statistical physics that are based on free energy landscapes. This paper aims to make a rigorous connection between the seemingly different low-degree and free-energy based approaches. We define a free-energy based criterion for hardness and formally connect it to the well-established notion of low-degree hardness for a broad class of statistical problems, namely all Gaussian additive models and certain models with a sparse planted signal. By leveraging these rigorous connections we are able to: establish that for Gaussian additive models the "algebraic" notion of low-degree hardness implies failure of "geometric" local MCMC algorithms, and provide new low-degree lower bounds for sparse linear regression which seem difficult to prove directly. These results provide both conceptual insights into the connections between different notions of hardness, as well as concrete technical tools such as new methods for proving low-degree lower bounds.

Most PAC-Bayesian bounds hold in the batch learning setting where data is collected at once, prior to inference or prediction. This somewhat departs from many contemporary learning problems where data streams are collected and the algorithms must dynamically adjust. We prove new PAC-Bayesian bounds in this online learning framework, leveraging an updated definition of regret, and we revisit classical PAC-Bayesian results with a batch-to-online conversion, extending their remit to the case of dependent data. Our results hold for bounded losses, potentially \emph{non-convex}, paving the way to promising developments in online learning.

Uncertainty quantification has received increasing attention in machine learning in the recent past. In particular, a distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has been found useful in this regard. The latter refers to the learner's (lack of) knowledge and appears to be especially difficult to measure and quantify. In this paper, we analyse a recent proposal based on the idea of a second-order learner, which yields predictions in the form of distributions over probability distributions. While standard (first-order) learners can be trained to predict accurate probabilities, namely by minimising suitable loss functions on sample data, we show that loss minimisation does not work for second-order predictors: The loss functions proposed for inducing such predictors do not incentivise the learner to represent its epistemic uncertainty in a faithful way.

We propose a practical integration of logical state abstraction with AIXI, a Bayesian optimality notion for reinforcement learning agents, to significantly expand the model class that AIXI agents can be approximated over to complex history-dependent and structured environments. The state representation and reasoning framework is based on higher-order logic, which can be used to define and enumerate complex features on non-Markovian and structured environments. We address the problem of selecting the right subset of features to form state abstractions by adapting the $\Phi$-MDP optimisation criterion from state abstraction theory. Exact Bayesian model learning is then achieved using a suitable generalisation of Context Tree Weighting over abstract state sequences. The resultant architecture can be integrated with different planning algorithms. Experimental results on controlling epidemics on large-scale contact networks validates the agent's performance.