Graphs are a powerful data structure to represent relational data and are widely used to describe complex real-world data structures. Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) have been well-developed in the past years to mathematically model real-world scenarios in compact graphical representations of distributions of variables. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are new inference methods developed in recent years and are attracting growing attention due to their effectiveness and flexibility in solving inference and learning problems over graph-structured data. These two powerful approaches have different advantages in capturing relations from observations and how they conduct message passing, and they can benefit each other in various tasks. In this survey, we broadly study the intersection of GNNs and PGMs. Specifically, we first discuss how GNNs can benefit from learning structured representations in PGMs, generate explainable predictions by PGMs, and how PGMs can infer object relationships. Then we discuss how GNNs are implemented in PGMs for more efficient inference and structure learning. In the end, we summarize the benchmark datasets used in recent studies and discuss promising future directions.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) techniques are now an essential tool for the parameter estimation of mechanistic and simulatable models with intractable likelihoods. Statistical approaches to SBI such as approximate Bayesian computation and Bayesian synthetic likelihood have been well studied in the well specified and misspecified settings. However, most implementations are inefficient in that many model simulations are wasted. Neural approaches such as sequential neural likelihood (SNL) have been developed that exploit all model simulations to build a surrogate of the likelihood function. However, SNL approaches have been shown to perform poorly under model misspecification. In this paper, we develop a new method for SNL that is robust to model misspecification and can identify areas where the model is deficient. We demonstrate the usefulness of the new approach on several illustrative examples.

Individual-based epidemiological models support the study of fine-grained preventive measures, such as tailored vaccine allocation policies, in silico. As individual-based models are computationally intensive, it is pivotal to identify optimal strategies within a reasonable computational budget. Moreover, due to the high societal impact associated with the implementation of preventive strategies, uncertainty regarding decisions should be communicated to policy makers, which is naturally embedded in a Bayesian approach. We present a novel technique for evaluating vaccine allocation strategies using a multi-armed bandit framework in combination with a Bayesian anytime $m$-top exploration algorithm. $m$-top exploration allows the algorithm to learn $m$ policies for which it expects the highest utility, enabling experts to inspect this small set of alternative strategies, along with their quantified uncertainty. The anytime component provides policy advisors with flexibility regarding the computation time and the desired confidence, which is important as it is difficult to make this trade-off beforehand. We consider the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using the individual-based model STRIDE, where we learn a set of vaccination policies that minimize the number of infections and hospitalisations. Through experiments we show that our method can efficiently identify the $m$-top policies, which is validated in a scenario where the ground truth is available. Finally, we explore how vaccination policies can best be organised under different contact reduction schemes. Through these experiments, we show that the top policies follow a clear trend regarding the prioritised age groups and assigned vaccine type, which provides insights for future vaccination campaigns.

In this work, we initiate the idea of using denoising diffusion models to learn priors for online decision making problems. Our special focus is on the meta-learning for bandit framework, with the goal of learning a strategy that performs well across bandit tasks of a same class. To this end, we train a diffusion model that learns the underlying task distribution and combine Thompson sampling with the learned prior to deal with new tasks at test time. Our posterior sampling algorithm is designed to carefully balance between the learned prior and the noisy observations that come from the learner's interaction with the environment. To capture realistic bandit scenarios, we also propose a novel diffusion model training procedure that trains even from incomplete and/or noisy data, which could be of independent interest. Finally, our extensive experimental evaluations clearly demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

Typical representations for arbitrary-oriented object detection tasks include oriented bounding box (OBB), quadrilateral bounding box (QBB), and point set (PointSet). Each representation encounters problems that correspond to its characteristics, such as the boundary discontinuity, square-like problem, representation ambiguity, and isolated points, which lead to inaccurate detection. Although many effective strategies have been proposed for various representations, there is still no unified solution. Current detection methods based on Gaussian modeling have demonstrated the possibility of breaking this dilemma; however, they remain limited to OBB. To go further, in this paper, we propose a unified Gaussian representation called G-Rep to construct Gaussian distributions for OBB, QBB, and PointSet, which achieves a unified solution to various representations and problems. Specifically, PointSet or QBB-based object representations are converted into Gaussian distributions, and their parameters are optimized using the maximum likelihood estimation algorithm. Then, three optional Gaussian metrics are explored to optimize the regression loss of the detector because of their excellent parameter optimization mechanisms. Furthermore, we also use Gaussian metrics for sampling to align label assignment and regression loss. Experimental results on several public available datasets, such as DOTA, HRSC2016, UCAS-AOD, and ICDAR2015, show the excellent performance of the proposed method for arbitrary-oriented object detection.

Commonly adopted in the manufacturing and aerospace sectors, digital twin (DT) platforms are increasingly seen as a promising paradigm to control and monitor software-based, "open", communication systems, which play the role of the physical twin (PT). In the general framework presented in this work, the DT builds a Bayesian model of the communication system, which is leveraged to enable core DT functionalities such as control via multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) and monitoring of the PT for anomaly detection. We specifically investigate the application of the proposed framework to a simple case-study system encompassing multiple sensing devices that report to a common receiver. The Bayesian model trained at the DT has the key advantage of capturing epistemic uncertainty regarding the communication system, e.g., regarding current traffic conditions, which arise from limited PT-to-DT data transfer. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed Bayesian framework as compared to standard frequentist model-based solutions.

Calculation of Bayesian posteriors and model evidences typically requires numerical integration. Bayesian quadrature (BQ), a surrogate-model-based approach to numerical integration, is capable of superb sample efficiency, but its lack of parallelisation has hindered its practical applications. In this work, we propose a parallelised (batch) BQ method, employing techniques from kernel quadrature, that possesses an empirically exponential convergence rate. Additionally, just as with Nested Sampling, our method permits simultaneous inference of both posteriors and model evidence. Samples from our BQ surrogate model are re-selected to give a sparse set of samples, via a kernel recombination algorithm, requiring negligible additional time to increase the batch size. Empirically, we find that our approach significantly outperforms the sampling efficiency of both state-of-the-art BQ techniques and Nested Sampling in various real-world datasets, including lithium-ion battery analytics.

To perform dynamic cable manipulation to realize the configuration specified by a target image, we formulate dynamic cable manipulation as a stochastic forward model. Then, we propose a method to handle uncertainty by maximizing the expectation, which also considers estimation errors of the trained model. To avoid issues like multiple local minima and requirement of differentiability by gradient-based methods, we propose using a black-box optimization (BBO) to optimize joint angles to realize a goal image. Among BBO, we use the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE), a type of Bayesian optimization. By incorporating constraints into the TPE, the optimized joint angles are constrained within the range of motion. Since TPE is population-based, it is better able to detect multiple feasible configurations using the estimated inverse model. We evaluated image similarity between the target and cable images captured by executing the robot using optimal transport distance. The results show that the proposed method improves accuracy compared to conventional gradient-based approaches and methods that use deterministic models that do not consider uncertainty.

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are a popular framework for modeling complex data distributions; they can be efficiently trained via variational inference by maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO), at the expense of a gap to the exact (log-)marginal likelihood. While VAEs are commonly used for disentangled representation learning, it is unclear why ELBO maximization would yield such representations, since unregularized maximum likelihood estimation generally cannot invert the data-generating process without additional assumptions. Yet, VAEs often succeed at this task. We seek to elucidate this apparent paradox by studying nonlinear VAEs in the limit of near-deterministic decoders. We first prove that, in this regime, the optimal encoder approximately inverts the decoder--a commonly used but unproven conjecture--which we refer to as self-consistency. Leveraging self-consistency, we show that the ELBO converges to a regularized log-likelihood. This allows VAEs to perform what has recently been termed independent mechanism analysis (IMA): it adds an inductive bias towards decoders with column-orthogonal Jacobians, which helps recovering the true latent factors. The gap between ELBO and log-likelihood is therefore welcome, since it bears unanticipated benefits for nonlinear representation learning. In experiments on synthetic and image data, we show that VAEs uncover the true latent factors when the data generating process satisfies the IMA assumption.

Despite rapid advancements in lifelong learning (LLL) research, a large body of research mainly focuses on improving the performance in the existing \textit{static} continual learning (CL) setups. These methods lack the ability to succeed in a rapidly changing \textit{dynamic} environment, where an AI agent needs to quickly learn new instances in a `single pass' from the non-i.i.d (also possibly temporally contiguous/coherent) data streams without suffering from catastrophic forgetting. For practical applicability, we propose a novel lifelong learning approach, which is streaming, i.e., a single input sample arrives in each time step, single pass, class-incremental, and subject to be evaluated at any moment. To address this challenging setup and various evaluation protocols, we propose a Bayesian framework, that enables fast parameter update, given a single training example, and enables any-time inference. We additionally propose an implicit regularizer in the form of snap-shot self-distillation, which effectively minimizes the forgetting further. We further propose an effective method that efficiently selects a subset of samples for online memory rehearsal and employs a new replay buffer management scheme that significantly boosts the overall performance. Our empirical evaluations and ablations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the prior works by large margins.