Decision analysis deals with modeling and enhancing decision processes. A principal challenge in improving behavior is in obtaining a transparent description of existing behavior in the first place. In this paper, we develop an expressive, unifying perspective on inverse decision modeling: a framework for learning parameterized representations of sequential decision behavior. First, we formalize the forward problem (as a normative standard), subsuming common classes of control behavior. Second, we use this to formalize the inverse problem (as a descriptive model), generalizing existing work on imitation/reward learning -- while opening up a much broader class of research problems in behavior representation. Finally, we instantiate this approach with an example (inverse bounded rational control), illustrating how this structure enables learning (interpretable) representations of (bounded) rationality -- while naturally capturing intuitive notions of suboptimal actions, biased beliefs, and imperfect knowledge of environments.

In this paper, we establish a connection between the parameterization of flow-based and energy-based generative models, and present a new flow-based modeling approach called energy-based normalizing flow (EBFlow). We demonstrate that by optimizing EBFlow with score-matching objectives, the computation of Jacobian determinants for linear transformations can be entirely bypassed. This feature enables the use of arbitrary linear layers in the construction of flow-based models without increasing the computational time complexity of each training iteration from $O(D^2L)$ to $O(D^3L)$ for an $L$-layered model that accepts $D$-dimensional inputs. This makes the training of EBFlow more efficient than the commonly-adopted maximum likelihood training method. In addition to the reduction in runtime, we enhance the training stability and empirical performance of EBFlow through a number of techniques developed based on our analysis of the score-matching methods. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves a significant speedup compared to maximum likelihood estimation while outperforming prior methods with a noticeable margin in terms of negative log-likelihood (NLL).

We present simulation-free score and flow matching ([SF]$^2$M), a simulation-free objective for inferring stochastic dynamics given unpaired samples drawn from arbitrary source and target distributions. Our method generalizes both the score-matching loss used in the training of diffusion models and the recently proposed flow matching loss used in the training of continuous normalizing flows. [SF]$^2$M interprets continuous-time stochastic generative modeling as a Schr\"odinger bridge problem. It relies on static entropy-regularized optimal transport, or a minibatch approximation, to efficiently learn the SB without simulating the learned stochastic process. We find that [SF]$^2$M is more efficient and gives more accurate solutions to the SB problem than simulation-based methods from prior work. Finally, we apply [SF]$^2$M to the problem of learning cell dynamics from snapshot data. Notably, [SF]$^2$M is the first method to accurately model cell dynamics in high dimensions and can recover known gene regulatory networks from simulated data.

Since their initial introduction, score-based diffusion models (SDMs) have been successfully applied to solve a variety of linear inverse problems in finite-dimensional vector spaces due to their ability to efficiently approximate the posterior distribution. However, using SDMs for inverse problems in infinite-dimensional function spaces has only been addressed recently, primarily through methods that learn the unconditional score. While this approach is advantageous for some inverse problems, it is mostly heuristic and involves numerous computationally costly forward operator evaluations during posterior sampling. To address these limitations, we propose a theoretically grounded method for sampling from the posterior of infinite-dimensional Bayesian linear inverse problems based on amortized conditional SDMs. In particular, we prove that one of the most successful approaches for estimating the conditional score in finite dimensions - the conditional denoising estimator - can also be applied in infinite dimensions. A significant part of our analysis is dedicated to demonstrating that extending infinite-dimensional SDMs to the conditional setting requires careful consideration, as the conditional score typically blows up for small times, contrarily to the unconditional score. We conclude by presenting stylized and large-scale numerical examples that validate our approach, offer additional insights, and demonstrate that our method enables large-scale, discretization-invariant Bayesian inference.

Neuroprostheses show potential in restoring lost sensory function and enhancing human capabilities, but the sensations produced by current devices often seem unnatural or distorted. Exact placement of implants and differences in individual perception lead to significant variations in stimulus response, making personalized stimulus optimization a key challenge. Bayesian optimization could be used to optimize patient-specific stimulation parameters with limited noisy observations, but is not feasible for high-dimensional stimuli. Alternatively, deep learning models can optimize stimulus encoding strategies, but typically assume perfect knowledge of patient-specific variations. Here we propose a novel, practically feasible approach that overcomes both of these fundamental limitations. First, a deep encoder network is trained to produce optimal stimuli for any individual patient by inverting a forward model mapping electrical stimuli to visual percepts. Second, a preferential Bayesian optimization strategy utilizes this encoder to optimize patient-specific parameters for a new patient, using a minimal number of pairwise comparisons between candidate stimuli. We demonstrate the viability of this approach on a novel, state-of-the-art visual prosthesis model. We show that our approach quickly learns a personalized stimulus encoder, leads to dramatic improvements in the quality of restored vision, and is robust to noisy patient feedback and misspecifications in the underlying forward model. Overall, our results suggest that combining the strengths of deep learning and Bayesian optimization could significantly improve the perceptual experience of patients fitted with visual prostheses and may prove a viable solution for a range of neuroprosthetic technologies.

Scientists continue to develop increasingly complex mechanistic models to reflect their knowledge more realistically. Statistical inference using these models can be challenging since the corresponding likelihood function is often intractable and model simulation may be computationally burdensome. Fortunately, in many of these situations, it is possible to adopt a surrogate model or approximate likelihood function. It may be convenient to conduct Bayesian inference directly with the surrogate, but this can result in bias and poor uncertainty quantification. In this paper we propose a new method for adjusting approximate posterior samples to reduce bias and produce more accurate uncertainty quantification. We do this by optimizing a transform of the approximate posterior that maximizes a scoring rule. Our approach requires only a (fixed) small number of complex model simulations and is numerically stable. We demonstrate good performance of the new method on several examples of increasing complexity.

Neural posterior estimation methods based on discrete normalizing flows have become established tools for simulation-based inference (SBI), but scaling them to high-dimensional problems can be challenging. Building on recent advances in generative modeling, we here present flow matching posterior estimation (FMPE), a technique for SBI using continuous normalizing flows. Like diffusion models, and in contrast to discrete flows, flow matching allows for unconstrained architectures, providing enhanced flexibility for complex data modalities. Flow matching, therefore, enables exact density evaluation, fast training, and seamless scalability to large architectures--making it ideal for SBI. We show that FMPE achieves competitive performance on an established SBI benchmark, and then demonstrate its improved scalability on a challenging scientific problem: for gravitational-wave inference, FMPE outperforms methods based on comparable discrete flows, reducing training time by 30% with substantially improved accuracy. Our work underscores the potential of FMPE to enhance performance in challenging inference scenarios, thereby paving the way for more advanced applications to scientific problems.

In this paper, we introduce Randomized Q-learning (RandQL), a novel randomized model-free algorithm for regret minimization in episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). To the best of our knowledge, RandQL is the first tractable model-free posterior sampling-based algorithm. We analyze the performance of RandQL in both tabular and non-tabular metric space settings. In tabular MDPs, RandQL achieves a regret bound of order $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{H^{5}SAT})$, where $H$ is the planning horizon, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $T$ is the number of episodes. For a metric state-action space, RandQL enjoys a regret bound of order $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(H^{5/2} T^{(d_z+1)/(d_z+2)})$, where $d_z$ denotes the zooming dimension. Notably, RandQL achieves optimistic exploration without using bonuses, relying instead on a novel idea of learning rate randomization. Our empirical study shows that RandQL outperforms existing approaches on baseline exploration environments.

Deep learning's immense capabilities are often constrained by the complexity of its models, leading to an increasing demand for effective sparsification techniques. Bayesian sparsification for deep learning emerges as a crucial approach, facilitating the design of models that are both computationally efficient and competitive in terms of performance across various deep learning applications. The state-of-the-art -- in Bayesian sparsification of deep neural networks -- combines structural shrinkage priors on model weights with an approximate inference scheme based on stochastic variational inference. However, model inversion of the full generative model is exceptionally computationally demanding, especially when compared to standard deep learning of point estimates. In this context, we advocate for the use of Bayesian model reduction (BMR) as a more efficient alternative for pruning of model weights. As a generalization of the Savage-Dickey ratio, BMR allows a post-hoc elimination of redundant model weights based on the posterior estimates under a straightforward (non-hierarchical) generative model. Our comparative study highlights the advantages of the BMR method relative to established approaches based on hierarchical horseshoe priors over model weights. We illustrate the potential of BMR across various deep learning architectures, from classical networks like LeNet to modern frameworks such as Vision Transformers and MLP-Mixers.

Differential privacy guarantees allow the results of a statistical analysis involving sensitive data to be released without compromising the privacy of any individual taking part. Achieving such guarantees generally requires the injection of noise, either directly into parameter estimates or into the estimation process. Instead of artificially introducing perturbations, sampling from Bayesian posterior distributions has been shown to be a special case of the exponential mechanism, producing consistent, and efficient private estimates without altering the data generative process. The application of current approaches has, however, been limited by their strong bounding assumptions which do not hold for basic models, such as simple linear regressors. To ameliorate this, we propose $\beta$D-Bayes, a posterior sampling scheme from a generalised posterior targeting the minimisation of the $\beta$-divergence between the model and the data generating process. This provides private estimation that is generally applicable without requiring changes to the underlying model and consistently learns the data generating parameter. We show that $\beta$D-Bayes produces more precise inference estimation for the same privacy guarantees, and further facilitates differentially private estimation via posterior sampling for complex classifiers and continuous regression models such as neural networks for the first time.