The posterior covariance matrix W defined by the log-likelihood of each observation plays important roles both in the sensitivity analysis and frequencist's evaluation of the Bayesian estimators. This study focused on the matrix W and its principal space; we term the latter as an essential subspace. First, it is shown that they appear in various statistical settings, such as the evaluation of the posterior sensitivity, assessment of the frequencist's uncertainty from posterior samples, and stochastic expansion of the loss; a key tool to treat frequencist's properties is the recently proposed Bayesian infinitesimal jackknife approximation (Giordano and Broderick (2023)). In the following part, we show that the matrix W can be interpreted as a reproducing kernel; it is named as W-kernel. Using the W-kernel, the essential subspace is expressed as a principal space given by the kernel PCA. A relation to the Fisher kernel and neural tangent kernel is established, which elucidates the connection to the classical asymptotic theory; it also leads to a sort of Bayesian-frequencist's duality. Finally, two applications, selection of a representative set of observations and dimensional reduction in the approximate bootstrap, are discussed. In the former, incomplete Cholesky decomposition is introduced as an efficient method to compute the essential subspace. In the latter, different implementations of the approximate bootstrap for posterior means are compared.

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) have emerged as a crucial approach for interpreting ML predictions. By sampling from the posterior distribution, data scientists may estimate the uncertainty of an inference. Unfortunately many inference samples are often needed, the overhead of which greatly hinder BNN's wide adoption. To mitigate this, previous work proposed propagating the first and second moments of the posterior directly through the network. However, on its own this method is even slower than sampling, so the propagated variance needs to be approximated such as assuming independence between neural nodes. The resulting trade-off between quality and inference time did not match even plain Monte Carlo sampling. Our contribution is a more principled variance propagation framework based on "spiked covariance matrices", which smoothly interpolates between quality and inference time. This is made possible by a new fast algorithm for updating a diagonal-plus-low-rank matrix approximation under various operations. We tested our algorithm against sampling based MC Dropout and Variational Inference on a number of downstream uncertainty themed tasks, such as calibration and out-of-distribution testing. We find that Favour is as fast as performing 2-3 inference samples, while matching the performance of 10-100 samples. In summary, this work enables the use of BNN in the realm of performance critical tasks where they have previously been out of reach.

Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) provides a method for combining multiple predictive distributions based on agent/expert opinion analysis theory and encompasses a range of existing density forecast pooling methods. The key ingredient in BPS is a ``synthesis'' function. This is typically specified parametrically as a dynamic linear regression. In this paper, we develop a nonparametric treatment of the synthesis function using regression trees. We show the advantages of our tree-based approach in two macroeconomic forecasting applications. The first uses density forecasts for GDP growth from the euro area's Survey of Professional Forecasters. The second combines density forecasts of US inflation produced by many regression models involving different predictors. Both applications demonstrate the benefits -- in terms of improved forecast accuracy and interpretability -- of modeling the synthesis function nonparametrically.

The availability of representative datasets is an essential prerequisite for many successful artificial intelligence and machine learning models. However, in real life applications these models often encounter scenarios that are inadequately represented in the data used for training. There are various reasons for the absence of sufficient data, ranging from time and cost constraints to ethical considerations. As a consequence, the reliable usage of these models, especially in safety-critical applications, is still a tremendous challenge. Leveraging additional, already existing sources of knowledge is key to overcome the limitations of purely data-driven approaches. Knowledge augmented machine learning approaches offer the possibility of compensating for deficiencies, errors, or ambiguities in the data, thus increasing the generalization capability of the applied models. Even more, predictions that conform with knowledge are crucial for making trustworthy and safe decisions even in underrepresented scenarios. This work provides an overview of existing techniques and methods in the literature that combine data-driven models with existing knowledge. The identified approaches are structured according to the categories knowledge integration, extraction and conformity. In particular, we address the application of the presented methods in the field of autonomous driving.

We study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), where we aim to maximize the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with a fixed risk tolerance $\tau$. Prior theoretical work studying risk-sensitive RL focuses on the tabular Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) setting. To extend CVaR RL to settings where state space is large, function approximation must be deployed. We study CVaR RL in low-rank MDPs with nonlinear function approximation. Low-rank MDPs assume the underlying transition kernel admits a low-rank decomposition, but unlike prior linear models, low-rank MDPs do not assume the feature or state-action representation is known. We propose a novel Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) bonus-driven algorithm to carefully balance the interplay between exploration, exploitation, and representation learning in CVaR RL. We prove that our algorithm achieves a sample complexity of $\tilde{O}\left(\frac{H^7 A^2 d^4}{\tau^2 \epsilon^2}\right)$ to yield an $\epsilon$-optimal CVaR, where $H$ is the length of each episode, $A$ is the capacity of action space, and $d$ is the dimension of representations. Computational-wise, we design a novel discretized Least-Squares Value Iteration (LSVI) algorithm for the CVaR objective as the planning oracle and show that we can find the near-optimal policy in a polynomial running time with a Maximum Likelihood Estimation oracle. To our knowledge, this is the first provably efficient CVaR RL algorithm in low-rank MDPs.

We propose a method for the classification of objects that are structured as random trees. Our aim is to model a distribution over the node label assignments in settings where the tree data structure is associated with node attributes (typically high dimensional embeddings). The tree topology is not predetermined and none of the label assignments are present during inference. Other methods that produce a distribution over node label assignment in trees (or more generally in graphs) either assume conditional independence of the label assignment, operate on a fixed graph topology, or require part of the node labels to be observed. Our method defines a Markov Network with the corresponding topology of the random tree and an associated Gibbs distribution. We parameterize the Gibbs distribution with a Graph Neural Network that operates on the random tree and the node embeddings. This allows us to estimate the likelihood of node assignments for a given random tree and use MCMC to sample from the distribution of node assignments. We evaluate our method on the tasks of node classification in trees on the Stanford Sentiment Treebank dataset. Our method outperforms the baselines on this dataset, demonstrating its effectiveness for modeling joint distributions of node labels in random trees.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

Causal discovery from observational data is pivotal for deciphering complex relationships. Causal Structure Learning (CSL), which focuses on deriving causal Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) from data, faces challenges due to vast DAG spaces and data sparsity. The integration of Large Language Models (LLMs), recognized for their causal reasoning capabilities, offers a promising direction to enhance CSL by infusing it with knowledge-based causal inferences. However, existing approaches utilizing LLMs for CSL have encountered issues, including unreliable constraints from imperfect LLM inferences and the computational intensity of full pairwise variable analyses. In response, we introduce the Iterative LLM Supervised CSL (ILS-CSL) framework. ILS-CSL innovatively integrates LLM-based causal inference with CSL in an iterative process, refining the causal DAG using feedback from LLMs. This method not only utilizes LLM resources more efficiently but also generates more robust and high-quality structural constraints compared to previous methodologies. Our comprehensive evaluation across eight real-world datasets demonstrates ILS-CSL's superior performance, setting a new standard in CSL efficacy and showcasing its potential to significantly advance the field of causal discovery. The codes are available at \url{https://github.com/tyMadara/ILS-CSL}.

Autonomous materials research labs require the ability to combine and learn from diverse data streams. This is especially true for learning material synthesis-process-structure-property relationships, key to accelerating materials optimization and discovery as well as accelerating mechanistic understanding. We present the Synthesis-process-structure-property relAtionship coreGionalized lEarner (SAGE) algorithm. A fully Bayesian algorithm that uses multimodal coregionalization to merge knowledge across data sources to learn synthesis-process-structure-property relationships. SAGE outputs a probabilistic posterior for the relationships including the most likely relationships given the data.

We consider a human-assisted autonomy sensor fusion for dynamic target localization in a Bayesian framework. To compensate for the shortcomings of an autonomous tracking system, we propose to collect spatial sensing information from human operators who visually monitor the target and can provide target localization information in the form of free sketches encircling the area where the target is located. Our focus in this paper is to construct an adaptive probabilistic model for human-provided inputs where the adaption terms capture the level of reliability of the human inputs. The next contribution of this paper is a novel joint Bayesian learning method to fuse human and autonomous sensor inputs in a manner that the dynamic changes in human detection reliability are also captured and accounted for. A unique aspect of this Bayesian modeling framework is its analytical closed-form update equations, endowing our method with significant computational efficiency. Simulations demonstrate our results.