With the significant successes of large language models (LLMs) in many natural language processing tasks, there is growing interest among researchers in exploring LLMs for novel recommender systems. However, we have observed that directly using LLMs as a recommender system is usually unstable due to its inherent position bias. To this end, we introduce exploratory research and find consistent patterns of positional bias in LLMs that influence the performance of recommendation across a range of scenarios. Then, we propose a Bayesian probabilistic framework, STELLA (Stable LLM for Recommendation), which involves a two-stage pipeline. During the first probing stage, we identify patterns in a transition matrix using a probing detection dataset. And in the second recommendation stage, a Bayesian strategy is employed to adjust the biased output of LLMs with an entropy indicator. Therefore, our framework can capitalize on existing pattern information to calibrate instability of LLMs, and enhance recommendation performance. Finally, extensive experiments clearly validate the effectiveness of our framework.

Graph contrastive learning (GCL) aims to align the positive features while differentiating the negative features in the latent space by minimizing a pair-wise contrastive loss. As the embodiment of an outstanding discriminative unsupervised graph representation learning approach, GCL achieves impressive successes in various graph benchmarks. However, such an approach falls short of recognizing the topology isomorphism of graphs, resulting in that graphs with relatively homogeneous node features cannot be sufficiently discriminated. By revisiting classic graph topology recognition works, we disclose that the corresponding expertise intuitively complements GCL methods. To this end, we propose a novel hierarchical topology isomorphism expertise embedded graph contrastive learning, which introduces knowledge distillations to empower GCL models to learn the hierarchical topology isomorphism expertise, including the graph-tier and subgraph-tier. On top of this, the proposed method holds the feature of plug-and-play, and we empirically demonstrate that the proposed method is universal to multiple state-of-the-art GCL models. The solid theoretical analyses are further provided to prove that compared with conventional GCL methods, our method acquires the tighter upper bound of Bayes classification error. We conduct extensive experiments on real-world benchmarks to exhibit the performance superiority of our method over candidate GCL methods, e.g., for the real-world graph representation learning experiments, the proposed method beats the state-of-the-art method by 0.23% on unsupervised representation learning setting, 0.43% on transfer learning setting. Our code is available at https://github.com/jyf123/HTML.

This work studies the learning process over social networks under partial and random information sharing. In traditional social learning models, agents exchange full belief information with each other while trying to infer the true state of nature. We study the case where agents share information about only one hypothesis, namely, the trending topic, which can be randomly changing at every iteration. We show that agents can learn the true hypothesis even if they do not discuss it, at rates comparable to traditional social learning. We also show that using one's own belief as a prior for estimating the neighbors' non-transmitted beliefs might create opinion clusters that prevent learning with full confidence. This phenomenon occurs when a single hypothesis corresponding to the truth is exchanged exclusively during all times. Such a practice, however, avoids the complete rejection of the truth under any information exchange procedure -- something that could happen if priors were uniform.

We propose a physics-informed machine learning method for uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional inverse problems. In this method, the states and parameters of partial differential equations (PDEs) are approximated with truncated conditional Karhunen-Lo\`eve expansions (CKLEs), which, by construction, match the measurements of the respective variables. The maximum a posteriori (MAP) solution of the inverse problem is formulated as a minimization problem over CKLE coefficients where the loss function is the sum of the norm of PDE residuals and the $\ell_2$ regularization term. This MAP formulation is known as the physics-informed CKLE (PICKLE) method. Uncertainty in the inverse solution is quantified in terms of the posterior distribution of CKLE coefficients, and we sample the posterior by solving a randomized PICKLE minimization problem, formulated by adding zero-mean Gaussian perturbations in the PICKLE loss function. We call the proposed approach the randomized PICKLE (rPICKLE) method. For linear and low-dimensional nonlinear problems (15 CKLE parameters), we show analytically and through comparison with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) that the rPICKLE posterior converges to the true posterior given by the Bayes rule. For high-dimensional non-linear problems with 2000 CKLE parameters, we numerically demonstrate that rPICKLE posteriors are highly informative--they provide mean estimates with an accuracy comparable to the estimates given by the MAP solution and the confidence interval that mostly covers the reference solution. We are not able to obtain the HMC posterior to validate rPICKLE's convergence to the true posterior due to the HMC's prohibitive computational cost for the considered high-dimensional problems. Our results demonstrate the advantages of rPICKLE over HMC for approximately sampling high-dimensional posterior distributions subject to physics constraints.

This paper offers a fresh look at the pumping lemma constant as an upper bound for the finite structural information of a Context Free Grammar. An objective function based on indirect negative evidence considers the occurrences, and non-occurrences, of a finite number of trees, encountered after a sufficiently long non-adversial input presentation. This objective function has optimal substructure in the hypotheses space, giving rise to a greedy search learner. With this learner, a range of classes of Context Free Languages is shown to be learnable (identifiable in the limit) on an otherwise intractable hypotheses space.

In nonstationary bandit learning problems, the decision-maker must continually gather information and adapt their action selection as the latent state of the environment evolves. In each time period, some latent optimal action maximizes expected reward under the environment state. We view the optimal action sequence as a stochastic process, and take an information-theoretic approach to analyze attainable performance. We bound limiting per-period regret in terms of the entropy rate of the optimal action process. The bound applies to a wide array of problems studied in the literature and reflects the problem's information structure through its information-ratio.

We provide an overview of recent progress in statistical inverse problems with random experimental design, covering both linear and nonlinear inverse problems. Different regularization schemes have been studied to produce robust and stable solutions. We discuss recent results in spectral regularization methods and regularization by projection, exploring both approaches within the context of Hilbert scales and presenting new insights particularly in regularization by projection. Additionally, we overview recent advancements in regularization using convex penalties. Convergence rates are analyzed in terms of the sample size in a probabilistic sense, yielding minimax rates in both expectation and probability. To achieve these results, the structure of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces is leveraged to establish minimax rates in the statistical learning setting. We detail the assumptions underpinning these key elements of our proofs. Finally, we demonstrate the application of these concepts to nonlinear inverse problems in pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models, where the task is to predict changes in drug concentrations in patients.

In district-based multi-party elections, electors cast votes in their respective districts. In each district, the party with maximum votes wins the corresponding seat in the governing body. Election Surveys try to predict the election outcome (vote shares and seat shares of parties) by querying a random sample of electors. However, the survey results are often inconsistent with the actual results, which could be due to multiple reasons. The aim of this work is to estimate a posterior distribution over the possible outcomes of the election, given one or more survey results. This is achieved using a prior distribution over vote shares, election models to simulate the complete election from the vote share, and survey models to simulate survey results from a complete election. The desired posterior distribution over the space of possible outcomes is constructed using Synthetic Dirichlet Likelihoods, whose parameters are estimated from Monte Carlo sampling of elections using the election models. We further show the same approach can also use be used to evaluate the surveys - whether they were biased or not, based on the true outcome once it is known. Our work offers the first-ever probabilistic model to analyze district-based election surveys. We illustrate our approach with extensive experiments on real and simulated data of district-based political elections in India.

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are powerful tools for various computer vision tasks, yet they often struggle with reliable uncertainty quantification - a critical requirement for real-world applications. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) are equipped for uncertainty estimation but cannot scale to large DNNs that are highly unstable to train. To address this challenge, we introduce the Adaptable Bayesian Neural Network (ABNN), a simple and scalable strategy to seamlessly transform DNNs into BNNs in a post-hoc manner with minimal computational and training overheads. ABNN preserves the main predictive properties of DNNs while enhancing their uncertainty quantification abilities through simple BNN adaptation layers (attached to normalization layers) and a few fine-tuning steps on pre-trained models. We conduct extensive experiments across multiple datasets for image classification and semantic segmentation tasks, and our results demonstrate that ABNN achieves state-of-the-art performance without the computational budget typically associated with ensemble methods.

We propose an adaptive model-predictive controller that balances driving the system to a goal state and seeking system observations that are informative with respect to the parameters of a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model. The controller's objective function is derived from an expected free energy functional and contains information-theoretic terms expressing uncertainty over model parameters and output predictions. Experiments illustrate how parameter uncertainty affects the control objective and evaluate the proposed controller for a pendulum swing-up task.