Constructing valid prediction intervals rather than point estimates is a well-established approach for uncertainty quantification in the regression setting. Models equipped with this capacity output an interval of values in which the ground truth target will fall with some prespecified probability. This is an essential requirement in many real-world applications where simple point predictions' inability to convey the magnitude and frequency of errors renders them insufficient for high-stakes decisions. Quantile regression is a leading approach for obtaining such intervals via the empirical estimation of quantiles in the (non-parametric) distribution of outputs. This method is simple, computationally inexpensive, interpretable, assumption-free, and effective. However, it does require that the specific quantiles being learned are chosen a priori. This results in (a) intervals that are arbitrarily symmetric around the median which is sub-optimal for realistic skewed distributions, or (b) learning an excessive number of intervals. In this work, we propose Relaxed Quantile Regression (RQR), a direct alternative to quantile regression based interval construction that removes this arbitrary constraint whilst maintaining its strengths. We demonstrate that this added flexibility results in intervals with an improvement in desirable qualities (e.g. mean width) whilst retaining the essential coverage guarantees of quantile regression.

Current approximate posteriors in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) exhibit a crucial limitation: they fail to maintain invariance under reparameterization, i.e. BNNs assign different posterior densities to different parametrizations of identical functions. This creates a fundamental flaw in the application of Bayesian principles as it breaks the correspondence between uncertainty over the parameters with uncertainty over the parametrized function. In this paper, we investigate this issue in the context of the increasingly popular linearized Laplace approximation. Specifically, it has been observed that linearized predictives alleviate the common underfitting problems of the Laplace approximation. We develop a new geometric view of reparametrizations from which we explain the success of linearization. Moreover, we demonstrate that these reparameterization invariance properties can be extended to the original neural network predictive using a Riemannian diffusion process giving a straightforward algorithm for approximate posterior sampling, which empirically improves posterior fit.

Off-policy learning (OPL) often involves minimizing a risk estimator based on importance weighting to correct bias from the logging policy used to collect data. However, this method can produce an estimator with a high variance. A common solution is to regularize the importance weights and learn the policy by minimizing an estimator with penalties derived from generalization bounds specific to the estimator. This approach, known as pessimism, has gained recent attention but lacks a unified framework for analysis. To address this gap, we introduce a comprehensive PAC-Bayesian framework to examine pessimism with regularized importance weighting. We derive a tractable PAC-Bayesian generalization bound that universally applies to common importance weight regularizations, enabling their comparison within a single framework. Our empirical results challenge common understanding, demonstrating the effectiveness of standard IW regularization techniques.

GFlowNets are a promising alternative to MCMC sampling for discrete compositional random variables. Training GFlowNets requires repeated evaluations of the unnormalized target distribution or reward function. However, for large-scale posterior sampling, this may be prohibitive since it incurs traversing the data several times. Moreover, if the data are distributed across clients, employing standard GFlowNets leads to intensive client-server communication. To alleviate both these issues, we propose embarrassingly parallel GFlowNet (EP-GFlowNet). EP-GFlowNet is a provably correct divide-and-conquer method to sample from product distributions of the form $R(\cdot) \propto R_1(\cdot) ... R_N(\cdot)$ -- e.g., in parallel or federated Bayes, where each $R_n$ is a local posterior defined on a data partition. First, in parallel, we train a local GFlowNet targeting each $R_n$ and send the resulting models to the server. Then, the server learns a global GFlowNet by enforcing our newly proposed \emph{aggregating balance} condition, requiring a single communication step. Importantly, EP-GFlowNets can also be applied to multi-objective optimization and model reuse. Our experiments illustrate the EP-GFlowNets's effectiveness on many tasks, including parallel Bayesian phylogenetics, multi-objective multiset, sequence generation, and federated Bayesian structure learning.

Optimization-based techniques for federated learning (FL) often come with prohibitive communication cost, as high dimensional model parameters need to be communicated repeatedly between server and clients. In this paper, we follow a Bayesian approach allowing to perform FL with one-shot communication, by solving the global inference problem as a product of local client posteriors. For models with multi-modal likelihoods, such as neural networks, a naive application of this scheme is hampered, since clients will capture different posterior modes, causing a destructive collapse of the posterior on the server side. Consequently, we explore approximate inference in the function-space representation of client posteriors, hence suffering less or not at all from multi-modality. We show that distributed function-space inference is tightly related to learning Bayesian pseudocoresets and develop a tractable Bayesian FL algorithm on this insight. We show that this approach achieves prediction performance competitive to state-of-the-art while showing a striking reduction in communication cost of up to two orders of magnitude. Moreover, due to its Bayesian nature, our method also delivers well-calibrated uncertainty estimates.

In practice, training using federated learning can be orders of magnitude slower than standard centralized training. This severely limits the amount of experimentation and tuning that can be done, making it challenging to obtain good performance on a given task. Server-side proxy data can be used to run training simulations, for instance for hyperparameter tuning. This can greatly speed up the training pipeline by reducing the number of tuning runs to be performed overall on the true clients. However, it is challenging to ensure that these simulations accurately reflect the dynamics of the real federated training. In particular, the proxy data used for simulations often comes as a single centralized dataset without a partition into distinct clients, and partitioning this data in a naive way can lead to simulations that poorly reflect real federated training. In this paper we address the challenge of how to partition centralized data in a way that reflects the statistical heterogeneity of the true federated clients. We propose a fully federated, theoretically justified, algorithm that efficiently learns the distribution of the true clients and observe improved server-side simulations when using the inferred distribution to create simulated clients from the centralized data.

We address the challenge of quantifying Bayesian uncertainty and incorporating it in offline use cases of finite-state Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with unknown dynamics. Our approach provides a principled method to disentangle epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, and a novel technique to find policies that optimise Bayesian posterior expected value without relying on strong assumptions about the MDP's posterior distribution. First, we utilise standard Bayesian reinforcement learning methods to capture the posterior uncertainty in MDP parameters based on available data. We then analytically compute the first two moments of the return distribution across posterior samples and apply the law of total variance to disentangle aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. To find policies that maximise posterior expected value, we leverage the closed-form expression for value as a function of policy. This allows us to propose a stochastic gradient-based approach for solving the problem. We illustrate the uncertainty quantification and Bayesian posterior value optimisation performance of our agent in simple, interpretable gridworlds and validate it through ground-truth evaluations on synthetic MDPs. Finally, we highlight the real-world impact and computational scalability of our method by applying it to the AI Clinician problem, which recommends treatment for patients in intensive care units and has emerged as a key use case of finite-state MDPs with offline data. We discuss the challenges that arise with Bayesian modelling of larger scale MDPs while demonstrating the potential to apply our methods rooted in Bayesian decision theory into the real world. We make our code available at https://github.com/filippovaldettaro/finite-state-mdps .

Estimating the uncertainty of a model's prediction on a test point is a crucial part of ensuring reliability and calibration under distribution shifts. A minimum description length approach to this problem uses the predictive normalized maximum likelihood (pNML) distribution, which considers every possible label for a data point, and decreases confidence in a prediction if other labels are also consistent with the model and training data. In this work we propose IF-COMP, a scalable and efficient approximation of the pNML distribution that linearizes the model with a temperature-scaled Boltzmann influence function. IF-COMP can be used to produce well-calibrated predictions on test points as well as measure complexity in both labelled and unlabelled settings. We experimentally validate IF-COMP on uncertainty calibration, mislabel detection, and OOD detection tasks, where it consistently matches or beats strong baseline methods.

Reconstructing images from the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of M87*, the supermassive black hole at the center of the galaxy M87, depends on a prior to impose desired image statistics. However, given the impossibility of directly observing black holes, there is no clear choice for a prior. We present a framework for flexibly designing a range of priors, each bringing different biases to the image reconstruction. These priors can be weak (e.g., impose only basic natural-image statistics) or strong (e.g., impose assumptions of black-hole structure). Our framework uses Bayesian inference with score-based priors, which are data-driven priors arising from a deep generative model that can learn complicated image distributions. Using our Bayesian imaging approach with sophisticated data-driven priors, we can assess how visual features and uncertainty of reconstructed images change depending on the prior. In addition to simulated data, we image the real EHT M87* data and discuss how recovered features are influenced by the choice of prior.

A key challenge in e-learning environments like Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) is to induce effective pedagogical policies efficiently. While Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) often suffers from sample inefficiency and reward function design difficulty, Apprenticeship Learning(AL) algorithms can overcome them. However, most AL algorithms can not handle heterogeneity as they assume all demonstrations are generated with a homogeneous policy driven by a single reward function. Still, some AL algorithms which consider heterogeneity, often can not generalize to large continuous state space and only work with discrete states. In this paper, we propose an expectation-maximization(EM)-EDM, a general AL framework to induce effective pedagogical policies from given optimal or near-optimal demonstrations, which are assumed to be driven by heterogeneous reward functions. We compare the effectiveness of the policies induced by our proposed EM-EDM against four AL-based baselines and two policies induced by DRL on two different but related tasks that involve pedagogical action prediction. Our overall results showed that, for both tasks, EM-EDM outperforms the four AL baselines across all performance metrics and the two DRL baselines. This suggests that EM-EDM can effectively model complex student pedagogical decision-making processes through the ability to manage a large, continuous state space and adapt to handle diverse and heterogeneous reward functions with very few given demonstrations.