This paper introduces factored conditional filters, new filtering algorithms for simultaneously tracking states and estimating parameters in high-dimensional state spaces. The conditional nature of the algorithms is used to estimate parameters and the factored nature is used to decompose the state space into low-dimensional subspaces in such a way that filtering on these subspaces gives distributions whose product is a good approximation to the distribution on the entire state space. The conditions for successful application of the algorithms are that observations be available at the subspace level and that the transition model can be factored into local transition models that are approximately confined to the subspaces; these conditions are widely satisfied in computer science, engineering, and geophysical filtering applications. We give experimental results on tracking epidemics and estimating parameters in large contact networks that show the effectiveness of our approach.

We propose a computational procedure for identifying convection in heat transfer dynamics. The procedure is based on a Gaussian process latent force model, consisting of a white-box component (i.e., known physics) for the conduction and linear convection effects and a Gaussian process that acts as a black-box component for the nonlinear convection effects. States are inferred through Bayesian smoothing and we obtain approximate posterior distributions for the kernel covariance function's hyperparameters using Laplace's method. The nonlinear convection function is recovered from the Gaussian process states using a Bayesian regression model. We validate the procedure by simulation error using the identified nonlinear convection function, on both data from a simulated system and measurements from a physical assembly.

One of the primary catalysts fueling advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) is the availability of massive, curated datasets. A commonly used technique to curate such massive datasets is crowdsourcing, where data are dispatched to multiple annotators. The annotator-produced labels are then fused to serve downstream learning and inference tasks. This annotation process often creates noisy labels due to various reasons, such as the limited expertise, or unreliability of annotators, among others. Therefore, a core objective in crowdsourcing is to develop methods that effectively mitigate the negative impact of such label noise on learning tasks. This feature article introduces advances in learning from noisy crowdsourced labels. The focus is on key crowdsourcing models and their methodological treatments, from classical statistical models to recent deep learning-based approaches, emphasizing analytical insights and algorithmic developments. In particular, this article reviews the connections between signal processing (SP) theory and methods, such as identifiability of tensor and nonnegative matrix factorization, and novel, principled solutions of longstanding challenges in crowdsourcing -- showing how SP perspectives drive the advancements of this field. Furthermore, this article touches upon emerging topics that are critical for developing cutting-edge AI/ML systems, such as crowdsourcing in reinforcement learning with human feedback (RLHF) and direct preference optimization (DPO) that are key techniques for fine-tuning large language models (LLMs).

With the development of Human-AI Collaboration in Classification (HAI-CC), integrating users and AI predictions becomes challenging due to the complex decision-making process. This process has three options: 1) AI autonomously classifies, 2) learning to complement, where AI collaborates with users, and 3) learning to defer, where AI defers to users. Despite their interconnected nature, these options have been studied in isolation rather than as components of a unified system. In this paper, we address this weakness with the novel HAI-CC methodology, called Learning to Complement and to Defer to Multiple Users (LECODU). LECODU not only combines learning to complement and learning to defer strategies, but it also incorporates an estimation of the optimal number of users to engage in the decision process. The training of LECODU maximises classification accuracy and minimises collaboration costs associated with user involvement. Comprehensive evaluations across real-world and synthesized datasets demonstrate LECODU's superior performance compared to state-of-the-art HAI-CC methods. Remarkably, even when relying on unreliable users with high rates of label noise, LECODU exhibits significant improvement over both human decision-makers alone and AI alone.

Compressed sensing combines the power of convex optimization techniques with a sparsity-inducing prior on the signal space to solve an underdetermined system of equations. For many problems, the sparsifying dictionary is not directly given, nor its existence can be assumed. Besides, the sensing matrix can change across different scenarios. Addressing these issues requires solving a sparse representation learning problem, namely dictionary learning, taking into account the epistemic uncertainty of the learned dictionaries and, finally, jointly learning sparse representations and reconstructions under varying sensing matrix conditions. We address both concerns by proposing a variant of the LISTA architecture. First, we introduce Augmented Dictionary Learning ISTA (A-DLISTA), which incorporates an augmentation module to adapt parameters to the current measurement setup. Then, we propose to learn a distribution over dictionaries via a variational approach, dubbed Variational Learning ISTA (VLISTA). VLISTA exploits A-DLISTA as the likelihood model and approximates a posterior distribution over the dictionaries as part of an unfolded LISTA-based recovery algorithm. As a result, VLISTA provides a probabilistic way to jointly learn the dictionary distribution and the reconstruction algorithm with varying sensing matrices. We provide theoretical and experimental support for our architecture and show that our model learns calibrated uncertainties.

We consider a prototypical problem of Bayesian inference for a structured spiked model: a low-rank signal is corrupted by additive noise. While both information-theoretic and algorithmic limits are well understood when the noise is a Gaussian Wigner matrix, the more realistic case of structured noise still proves to be challenging. To capture the structure while maintaining mathematical tractability, a line of work has focused on rotationally invariant noise. However, existing studies either provide sub-optimal algorithms or are limited to special cases of noise ensembles. In this paper, using tools from statistical physics (replica method) and random matrix theory (generalized spherical integrals) we establish the first characterization of the information-theoretic limits for a noise matrix drawn from a general trace ensemble. Remarkably, our analysis unveils the asymptotic equivalence between the rotationally invariant model and a surrogate Gaussian one. Finally, we show how to saturate the predicted statistical limits using an efficient algorithm inspired by the theory of adaptive Thouless-Anderson-Palmer (TAP) equations.

Multi-fidelity models are becoming more prevalent in engineering, particularly in aerospace, as they combine both the computational efficiency of low-fidelity models with the high accuracy of higher-fidelity simulations. Various state-of-the-art techniques exist for fusing data from different fidelity sources, including Co-Kriging and transfer learning in neural networks. This paper aims to implement a multi-fidelity Bayesian neural network model that applies transfer learning to fuse data generated by models at different fidelities. Bayesian neural networks use probability distributions over network weights, enabling them to provide predictions along with estimates of their confidence. This approach harnesses the predictive and data fusion capabilities of neural networks while also quantifying uncertainty. The results demonstrate that the multi-fidelity Bayesian model outperforms the state-of-the-art Co-Kriging in terms of overall accuracy and robustness on unseen data.

We consider a covariate-assisted ranking model grounded in the Plackett--Luce framework. Unlike existing works focusing on pure covariates or individual effects with fixed covariates, our approach integrates individual effects with dynamic covariates. This added flexibility enhances realistic ranking yet poses significant challenges for analyzing the associated estimation procedures. This paper makes an initial attempt to address these challenges. We begin by discussing the sufficient and necessary condition for the model's identifiability. We then introduce an efficient alternating maximization algorithm to compute the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Under suitable assumptions on the topology of comparison graphs and dynamic covariates, we establish a quantitative uniform consistency result for the MLE with convergence rates characterized by the asymptotic graph connectivity. The proposed graph topology assumption holds for several popular random graph models under optimal leading-order sparsity conditions. A comprehensive numerical study is conducted to corroborate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the application of the proposed model to real-world datasets, including horse racing and tennis competitions.

Diffusion models recently proved to be remarkable priors for Bayesian inverse problems. However, training these models typically requires access to large amounts of clean data, which could prove difficult in some settings. In this work, we present a novel method based on the expectation-maximization algorithm for training diffusion models from incomplete and noisy observations only. Unlike previous works, our method leads to proper diffusion models, which is crucial for downstream tasks. As part of our method, we propose and motivate a new posterior sampling scheme for unconditional diffusion models.

Cognitive diagnosis has been developed for decades as an effective measurement tool to evaluate human cognitive status such as ability level and knowledge mastery. It has been applied to a wide range of fields including education, sport, psychological diagnosis, etc. By providing better awareness of cognitive status, it can serve as the basis for personalized services such as well-designed medical treatment, teaching strategy and vocational training. This paper aims to provide a survey of current models for cognitive diagnosis, with more attention on new developments using machine learning-based methods. By comparing the model structures, parameter estimation algorithms, model evaluation methods and applications, we provide a relatively comprehensive review of the recent trends in cognitive diagnosis models. Further, we discuss future directions that are worthy of exploration. In addition, we release two Python libraries: EduData for easy access to some relevant public datasets we have collected, and EduCDM that implements popular CDMs to facilitate both applications and research purposes.