B.1 Conditional convergence in distribution Suppose (X, d The proof of this Lemma is identical to the portmanteau lemma for weak convergence by replacing probabilities/expectations with conditional probabilities/expectations (for example, see [38, Section 2.1]). Lemma B.2. Suppose X, X X as m, and X is a constant a.s., then X A, where A is a constant. We can exchange the expectation and limit by the dominated convergence theorem. The result follows by taking ϵ 0. 4. Since X is a.s. For any K > 0, we have x x K is a bounded and continuous function. R. Because f g: X is a bounded and A. We now show that (X The result follows by an application of the continuous mapping theorem with the function (x, A) Ax. B.2 Model assumptions The following sets of assumptions are only used to prove the large-data limit results of Proposition 3.1, Proposition 3.2, and Proposition 3.3. We will always use a subscript m to indicate that the quantity is dependent on the data. For the remainder of this section we will assume the following regularity conditions.

An emerging area of research aims to learn deep generative models with limited training data. Prior generative models like GANs and diffusion models require a lot of data to perform well, and their performance degrades when they are trained on only a small amount of data. A recent technique called Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) has been adapted to the few-shot setting, achieving state-of-the-art performance. However, current IMLE-based approaches encounter challenges due to inadequate correspondence between the latent codes selected for training and those drawn during inference. This results in suboptimal test-time performance. We theoretically show a way to address this issue and propose RS-IMLE, a novel approach that changes the prior distribution used for training. This leads to substantially higher quality image generation compared to existing GAN and IMLE-based methods, as validated by comprehensive experiments conducted on nine few-shot image datasets.

Structural transformation, the shift from agrarian economies to more diversified industrial and service-based systems, is a key driver of economic development. However, in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), data scarcity and unreliability hinder accurate assessments of this process. This paper presents a novel statistical framework designed to address these challenges by integrating Bayesian hierarchical modeling, machine learning-based data imputation, and factor analysis. The framework is specifically tailored for conditions of data sparsity and is capable of providing robust insights into sectoral productivity and employment shifts across diverse economies. By utilizing Bayesian models, uncertainties in data are effectively managed, while machine learning techniques impute missing data points, ensuring the integrity of the analysis. Factor analysis reduces the dimensionality of complex datasets, distilling them into core economic structures. The proposed framework has been validated through extensive simulations, demonstrating its ability to predict structural changes even when up to 60\% of data is missing. This approach offers policymakers and researchers a valuable tool for making informed decisions in environments where data quality is limited, contributing to the broader understanding of economic development in LMICs.

Generative diffusion models have recently emerged as a powerful strategy to perform stochastic sampling in Bayesian inverse problems, delivering remarkably accurate solutions for a wide range of challenging applications. However, diffusion models often require a large number of neural function evaluations per sample in order to deliver accurate posterior samples. As a result, using diffusion models as stochastic samplers for Monte Carlo integration in Bayesian computation can be highly computationally expensive. This cost is especially high in large-scale inverse problems such as computational imaging, which rely on large neural networks that are expensive to evaluate. With Bayesian imaging problems in mind, this paper presents a Multilevel Monte Carlo strategy that significantly reduces the cost of Bayesian computation with diffusion models. This is achieved by exploiting cost-accuracy trade-offs inherent to diffusion models to carefully couple models of different levels of accuracy in a manner that significantly reduces the overall cost of the calculation, without reducing the final accuracy. The effectiveness of the proposed Multilevel Monte Carlo approach is demonstrated with three canonical computational imaging problems, where we observe a $4\times$-to-$8\times$ reduction in computational cost compared to conventional Monte Carlo averaging.

Error accumulation is an essential component of the Top-$k$ sparsification method in distributed gradient descent. It implicitly scales the learning rate and prevents the slow-down of lateral movement, but it can also deteriorate convergence. This paper proposes a novel sparsification algorithm called regularized Top-$k$ (RegTop-$k$) that controls the learning rate scaling of error accumulation. The algorithm is developed by looking at the gradient sparsification as an inference problem and determining a Bayesian optimal sparsification mask via maximum-a-posteriori estimation. It utilizes past aggregated gradients to evaluate posterior statistics, based on which it prioritizes the local gradient entries. Numerical experiments with ResNet-18 on CIFAR-10 show that at $0.1\%$ sparsification, RegTop-$k$ achieves about $8\%$ higher accuracy than standard Top-$k$.

Manifold learning has been proven to be an effective method for capturing the implicitly intrinsic structure of non-Euclidean data, in which one of the primary challenges is how to maintain the distortion-free (isometry) of the data representations. Actually, there is still no manifold learning method that provides a theoretical guarantee of isometry. Inspired by Nash's isometric theorem, we introduce a new concept called isometric immersion learning based on Riemannian geometry principles. Following this concept, an unsupervised neural network-based model that simultaneously achieves metric and manifold learning is proposed by integrating Riemannian geometry priors. What's more, we theoretically derive and algorithmically implement a maximum likelihood estimation-based training method for the new model. In the simulation experiments, we compared the new model with the state-of-the-art baselines on various 3-D geometry datasets, demonstrating that the new model exhibited significantly superior performance in multiple evaluation metrics. Moreover, we applied the Riemannian metric learned from the new model to downstream prediction tasks in real-world scenarios, and the accuracy was improved by an average of 8.8%.

Probabilistic regression models trained with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), can sometimes overestimate variance to an unacceptable degree. This is mostly problematic in the multivariate domain. While univariate models often optimize the popular Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), in the multivariate domain, no such alternative to MLE has yet been widely accepted. The Energy Score - the most investigated alternative - notoriously lacks closed-form expressions and sensitivity to the correlation between target variables. In this paper, we propose Conditional CRPS: a multivariate strictly proper scoring rule that extends CRPS. We show that closed-form expressions exist for popular distributions and illustrate their sensitivity to correlation. We then show in a variety of experiments on both synthetic and real data, that Conditional CRPS often outperforms MLE, and produces results comparable to state-of-the-art non-parametric models, such as Distributional Random Forest (DRF).

Learning Bayesian Networks (BNs) from high-dimensional data is a complex and time-consuming task. Although there are approaches based on horizontal (instances) or vertical (variables) partitioning in the literature, none can guarantee the same theoretical properties as the Greedy Equivalence Search (GES) algorithm, except those based on the GES algorithm itself. In this paper, we propose a directed ring-based distributed method that uses GES as the local learning algorithm, ensuring the same theoretical properties as GES but requiring less CPU time. The method involves partitioning the set of possible edges and constraining each processor in the ring to work only with its received subset. The global learning process is an iterative algorithm that carries out several rounds until a convergence criterion is met. In each round, each processor receives a BN from its predecessor in the ring, fuses it with its own BN model, and uses the result as the starting solution for a local learning process constrained to its set of edges. Subsequently, it sends the model obtained to its successor in the ring. Experiments were carried out on three large domains (400-1000 variables), demonstrating our proposal's effectiveness compared to GES and its fast version (fGES).

The design of food diets in the context of animal nutrition is a complex problem that aims to develop cost-effective formulations while balancing minimum nutritional content. Traditional approaches based on theoretical models of metabolic responses and concentrations of digestible energy in raw materials face limitations in incorporating zootechnical or environmental variables affecting the performance of animals and including multiple objectives aligned with sustainable development policies. Recently, multi-objective Bayesian optimization has been proposed as a promising heuristic alternative able to deal with the combination of multiple sources of information, multiple and diverse objectives, and with an intrinsic capacity to deal with uncertainty in the measurements that could be related to variability in the nutritional content of raw materials. However, Bayesian optimization encounters difficulties in high-dimensional search spaces, leading to exploration predominantly at the boundaries. This work analyses a strategy to split the search space into regions that provide local candidates termed multi-objective regionalized Bayesian optimization as an alternative to improve the quality of the Pareto set and Pareto front approximation provided by BO in the context of swine diet design. Results indicate that this regionalized approach produces more diverse non-dominated solutions compared to the standard multi-objective Bayesian optimization. Besides, the regionalized strategy was four times more effective in finding solutions that outperform those identified by a stochastic programming approach referenced in the literature. Experiments using batches of query candidate solutions per iteration show that the optimization process can also be accelerated without compromising the quality of the Pareto set approximation during the initial, most critical phase of optimization.