Marketing mix modeling (MMM) is a widely used method to assess the effectiveness of marketing campaigns and optimize marketing strategies. Bayesian MMM is an advanced approach that allows for the incorporation of prior information, uncertainty quantification, and probabilistic predictions (1). In this paper, we describe the process of building a Bayesian MMM model for the online insurance company Lemonade. We first collected data on Lemonade's marketing activities, such as online advertising, social media, and brand marketing, as well as performance data. We then used a Bayesian framework to estimate the contribution of each marketing channel on total performance, while accounting for various factors such as seasonality, market trends, and macroeconomic indicators. To validate the model, we compared its predictions with the actual performance data from A/B-testing and sliding window holdout data (2). The results showed that the predicted contribution of each marketing channel is aligned with A/B test performance and is actionable. Furthermore, we conducted several scenario analyses using convex optimization to test the sensitivity of the model to different assumptions and to evaluate the impact of changes in the marketing mix on sales. The insights gained from the model allowed Lemonade to adjust their marketing strategy and allocate their budget more effectively. Our case study demonstrates the benefits of using Bayesian MMM for marketing attribution and optimization in a data-driven company like Lemonade. The approach is flexible, interpretable, and can provide valuable insights for decision-making.

In this paper we address the problem of performing Bayesian inference for the parameters of a nonlinear multi-output model and the covariance matrix of the different output signals. We propose an adaptive importance sampling (AIS) scheme for multivariate Bayesian inversion problems, which is based in two main ideas: the variables of interest are split in two blocks and the inference takes advantage of known analytical optimization formulas. We estimate both the unknown parameters of the multivariate non-linear model and the covariance matrix of the noise. In the first part of the proposed inference scheme, a novel AIS technique called adaptive target adaptive importance sampling (ATAIS) is designed, which alternates iteratively between an IS technique over the parameters of the non-linear model and a frequentist approach for the covariance matrix of the noise. In the second part of the proposed inference scheme, a prior density over the covariance matrix is considered and the cloud of samples obtained by ATAIS are recycled and re-weighted to obtain a complete Bayesian study over the model parameters and covariance matrix. ATAIS is the main contribution of the work. Additionally, the inverted layered importance sampling (ILIS) is presented as a possible compelling algorithm (but based on a conceptually simpler idea). Different numerical examples show the benefits of the proposed approaches

Many critical decisions, such as personalized medical diagnoses and product pricing, are made based on insights gained from designing, observing, and analyzing a series of experiments. This highlights the crucial role of experimental design, which goes beyond merely collecting information on system parameters as in traditional Bayesian experimental design (BED), but also plays a key part in facilitating downstream decision-making. Most recent BED methods use an amortized policy network to rapidly design experiments. However, the information gathered through these methods is suboptimal for down-the-line decision-making, as the experiments are not inherently designed with downstream objectives in mind. In this paper, we present an amortized decision-aware BED framework that prioritizes maximizing downstream decision utility. We introduce a novel architecture, the Transformer Neural Decision Process (TNDP), capable of instantly proposing the next experimental design, whilst inferring the downstream decision, thus effectively amortizing both tasks within a unified workflow. We demonstrate the performance of our method across several tasks, showing that it can deliver informative designs and facilitate accurate decision-making.

Modeling the associations between real world entities from their multivariate cross-sectional profiles can provide cues into the concerted working of these entities as a system. Several techniques have been proposed for deciphering these associations including constraint-based Bayesian structure learning (BSL) algorithms that model them as directed acyclic graphs. Benchmarking these algorithms have typically focused on assessing the variation in performance measures such as sensitivity as a function of the dimensionality represented by the number of nodes in the DAG, and sample size. The present study elucidates the importance of network topology in benchmarking exercises. More specifically, it investigates variations in sensitivity across distinct network topologies while constraining the nodes, edges, and sample-size to be identical, eliminating these as potential confounders. Sensitivity of three popular constraint-based BSL algorithms (Peter-Clarke, Grow-Shrink, Incremental Association Markov Blanket) in learning the network structure from multivariate cross-sectional profiles sampled from network models with sub-linear, linear, and super-linear DAG topologies generated using preferential attachment is investigated. Results across linear and nonlinear models revealed statistically significant $(\alpha=0.05)$ decrease in sensitivity estimates from sub-linear to super-linear topology constitutively across the three algorithms. These results are demonstrated on networks with nodes $(N_{nods}=48,64)$, noise strengths $(\sigma =3,6)$ and sample size $(N = 2^{10})$. The findings elucidate the importance of accommodating the network topology in constraint-based BSL benchmarking exercises.

In this work, we present a probabilistic model for directed graphs where nodes have attributes and labels. This model serves as a generative classifier capable of predicting the labels of unseen nodes using either maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori estimations. The predictions made by this model are highly interpretable, contrasting with some common methods for node classification, such as graph neural networks. We applied the model to two datasets, demonstrating predictive performance that is competitive with, and even superior to, state-of-the-art methods. One of the datasets considered is adapted from the Math Genealogy Project, which has not previously been utilized for this purpose. Consequently, we evaluated several classification algorithms on this dataset to compare the performance of our model and provide benchmarks for this new resource.

Causal inference in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates presents significant challenges. We introduce CausalBGM, an AI-powered Bayesian generative modeling approach that captures the causal relationship among covariates, treatment, and outcome variables. The core innovation of CausalBGM lies in its ability to estimate the individual treatment effect (ITE) by learning individual-specific distributions of a low-dimensional latent feature set (e.g., latent confounders) that drives changes in both treatment and outcome. This approach not only effectively mitigates confounding effects but also provides comprehensive uncertainty quantification, offering reliable and interpretable causal effect estimates at the individual level. CausalBGM adopts a Bayesian model and uses a novel iterative algorithm to update the model parameters and the posterior distribution of latent features until convergence. This framework leverages the power of AI to capture complex dependencies among variables while adhering to the Bayesian principles. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CausalBGM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, particularly in scenarios with high-dimensional covariates and large-scale datasets. Its Bayesian foundation ensures statistical rigor, providing robust and well-calibrated posterior intervals. By addressing key limitations of existing methods, CausalBGM emerges as a robust and promising framework for advancing causal inference in modern applications in fields such as genomics, healthcare, and social sciences. CausalBGM is maintained at the website https://causalbgm.readthedocs.io/.

Text Classification (TC) stands as a cornerstone within the realm of Natural Language Processing (NLP), particularly when viewed through the lens of computer science and engineering. The past decade has seen deep learning revolutionize TC, propelling advancements in text retrieval, categorization, information extraction, and summarization. The scholarly literature is rich with datasets, models, and evaluation criteria, with English being the predominant language of focus, despite studies involving Arabic, Chinese, Hindi, and others. The efficacy of TC models relies heavily on their ability to capture intricate textual relationships and nonlinear correlations, necessitating a comprehensive examination of the entire TC pipeline. This monograph provides an in-depth exploration of the TC pipeline, with a particular emphasis on evaluating the impact of each component on the overall performance of TC models. The pipeline includes state-of-the-art datasets, text preprocessing techniques, text representation methods, classification models, evaluation metrics, current results and future trends. Each chapter meticulously examines these stages, presenting technical innovations and significant recent findings. The work critically assesses various classification strategies, offering comparative analyses, examples, case studies, and experimental evaluations. These contributions extend beyond a typical survey, providing a detailed and insightful exploration of TC.

We introduce new \emph{soft diamond} regularizers that both improve synaptic sparsity and maintain classification accuracy in deep neural networks. These parametrized regularizers outperform the state-of-the-art hard-diamond Laplacian regularizer of Lasso regression and classification. They use thick-tailed symmetric alpha-stable ($\mathcal{S \alpha S}$) bell-curve synaptic weight priors that are not Gaussian and so have thicker tails. The geometry of the diamond-shaped constraint set varies from a circle to a star depending on the tail thickness and dispersion of the prior probability density function. Training directly with these priors is computationally intensive because almost all $\mathcal{S \alpha S}$ probability densities lack a closed form. A precomputed look-up table removed this computational bottleneck. We tested the new soft diamond regularizers with deep neural classifiers on the three datasets CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and Caltech-256. The regularizers improved the accuracy of the classifiers. The improvements included $4.57\%$ on CIFAR-10, $4.27\%$ on CIFAR-100, and $6.69\%$ on Caltech-256. They also outperformed $L_2$ regularizers on all the test cases. Soft diamond regularizers also outperformed $L_1$ lasso or Laplace regularizers because they better increased sparsity while improving classification accuracy. Soft-diamond priors substantially improved accuracy on CIFAR-10 when combined with dropout, batch, or data-augmentation regularization.

In Reinforcement Learning (RL) theory, we impose restrictive assumptions to design an algorithm with provably sublinear regret. Common assumptions, like linear or RKHS models, and Gaussian or log-concave posteriors over the models, do not explain practical success of RL across a wider range of distributions and models. Thus, we study how to design RL algorithms with sublinear regret for isoperimetric distributions, specifically the ones satisfying the Log-Sobolev Inequality (LSI). LSI distributions include the standard setups of RL and others, such as many non-log-concave and perturbed distributions. First, we show that the Posterior Sampling-based RL (PSRL) yields sublinear regret if the data distributions satisfy LSI under some mild additional assumptions. Also, when we cannot compute or sample from an exact posterior, we propose a Langevin sampling-based algorithm design: LaPSRL. We show that LaPSRL achieves order optimal regret and subquadratic complexity per episode. Finally, we deploy LaPSRL with a Langevin sampler -- SARAH-LD, and test it for different bandit and MDP environments. Experimental results validate the generality of LaPSRL across environments and its competitive performance with respect to the baselines.

The field of Machine Learning has changed significantly since the 1970s. However, its most basic principle, Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM), remains unchanged. We propose Functional Risk Minimization~(FRM), a general framework where losses compare functions rather than outputs. This results in better performance in supervised, unsupervised, and RL experiments. In the FRM paradigm, for each data point $(x_i,y_i)$ there is function $f_{\theta_i}$ that fits it: $y_i = f_{\theta_i}(x_i)$. This allows FRM to subsume ERM for many common loss functions and to capture more realistic noise processes. We also show that FRM provides an avenue towards understanding generalization in the modern over-parameterized regime, as its objective can be framed as finding the simplest model that fits the training data.