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Interpretable Time Series Autoregression for Periodicity Quantification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Time series autoregression (AR) is a classical tool for modeling auto-correlations and periodic structures in real-world systems. We revisit this model from an interpretable machine learning perspective by introducing sparse autoregression (SAR), where $\ell_0$-norm constraints are used to isolate dominant periodicities. We formulate exact mixed-integer optimization (MIO) approaches for both stationary and non-stationary settings and introduce two scalable extensions: a decision variable pruning (DVP) strategy for temporally-varying SAR (TV-SAR), and a two-stage optimization scheme for spatially- and temporally-varying SAR (STV-SAR). These models enable scalable inference on real-world spatiotemporal datasets. We validate our framework on large-scale mobility and climate time series. On NYC ridesharing data, TV-SAR reveals interpretable daily and weekly cycles as well as long-term shifts due to COVID-19. On climate datasets, STV-SAR uncovers the evolving spatial structure of temperature and precipitation seasonality across four decades in North America and detects global sea surface temperature dynamics, including El Niño. Together, our results demonstrate the interpretability, flexibility, and scalability of sparse autoregression for periodicity quantification in complex time series.


A Complete Loss Landscape Analysis of Regularized Deep Matrix Factorization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite its wide range of applications across various domains, the optimization foundations of deep matrix factorization (DMF) remain largely open. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by conducting a comprehensive study of the loss landscape of the regularized DMF problem. Toward this goal, we first provide a closed-form characterization of all critical points of the problem. Building on this, we establish precise conditions under which a critical point is a local minimizer, a global minimizer, a strict saddle point, or a non-strict saddle point. Leveraging these results, we derive a necessary and sufficient condition under which every critical point is either a local minimizer or a strict saddle point. This provides insights into why gradient-based methods almost always converge to a local minimizer of the regularized DMF problem. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to visualize its loss landscape to support our theory.


CSC-MPPI: A Novel Constrained MPPI Framework with DBSCAN for Reliable Obstacle Avoidance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper proposes Constrained Sampling Cluster Model Predictive Path Integral (CSC-MPPI), a novel constrained formulation of MPPI designed to enhance trajectory optimization while enforcing strict constraints on system states and control inputs. Traditional MPPI, which relies on a probabilistic sampling process, often struggles with constraint satisfaction and generates suboptimal trajectories due to the weighted averaging of sampled trajectories. To address these limitations, the proposed framework integrates a primal-dual gradient-based approach and Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) to steer sampled input trajectories into feasible regions while mitigating risks associated with weighted averaging. First, to ensure that sampled trajectories remain within the feasible region, the primal-dual gradient method is applied to iteratively shift sampled inputs while enforcing state and control constraints. Then, DBSCAN groups the sampled trajectories, enabling the selection of representative control inputs within each cluster. Finally, among the representative control inputs, the one with the lowest cost is chosen as the optimal action. As a result, CSC-MPPI guarantees constraint satisfaction, improves trajectory selection, and enhances robustness in complex environments. Simulation and real-world experiments demonstrate that CSC-MPPI outperforms traditional MPPI in obstacle avoidance, achieving improved reliability and efficiency. The experimental videos are available at https://cscmppi.github.io


Riemannian Time Warping: Multiple Sequence Alignment in Curved Spaces

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Temporal alignment of multiple signals through time warping is crucial in many fields, such as classification within speech recognition or robot motion learning. Almost all related works are limited to data in Euclidean space. Although an attempt was made in 2011 to adapt this concept to unit quaternions, a general extension to Riemannian manifolds remains absent. Given its importance for numerous applications in robotics and beyond, we introduce Riemannian Time Warping (RTW). This novel approach efficiently aligns multiple signals by considering the geometric structure of the Riemannian manifold in which the data is embedded. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data, including tests with an LBR iiwa robot, demonstrate that RTW consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both averaging and classification tasks.


Adaptive Federated LoRA in Heterogeneous Wireless Networks with Independent Sampling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated LoRA has emerged as a promising technique for efficiently fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) on distributed devices by reducing the number of trainable parameters. However, existing approaches often inadequately overlook the theoretical and practical implications of system and data heterogeneity, thereby failing to optimize the overall training efficiency, particularly in terms of wall-clock time. In this paper, we propose an adaptive federated LoRA strategy with independent client sampling to minimize the convergence wall-clock time of federated fine-tuning under both computation and communication heterogeneity. We first derive a new convergence bound for federated LoRA with arbitrary and independent client sampling, notably without requiring the stringent bounded gradient assumption. Then, we introduce an adaptive bandwidth allocation scheme that accounts for heterogeneous client resources and system bandwidth constraints. Based on the derived theory, we formulate and solve a non-convex optimization problem to jointly determine the LoRA sketching ratios and sampling probabilities, aiming to minimize wall-clock convergence time. An efficient and low-complexity algorithm is developed to approximate the solution. Finally, extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly reduces wall-clock training time compared to state-of-the-art methods across various models and datasets.


On the Performance of Differentially Private Optimization with Heavy-Tail Class Imbalance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we analyze the optimization behaviour of common private learning optimization algorithms under heavy-tail class imbalanced distribution. We show that, in a stylized model, optimizing with Gradient Descent with differential privacy (DP-GD) suffers when learning low-frequency classes, whereas optimization algorithms that estimate second-order information do not. In particular, DP-AdamBC that removes the DP bias from estimating loss curvature is a crucial component to avoid the ill-condition caused by heavy-tail class imbalance, and empirically fits the data better with $\approx8\%$ and $\approx5\%$ increase in training accuracy when learning the least frequent classes on both controlled experiments and real data respectively.


Convergence of Agnostic Federated Averaging

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated learning (FL) enables decentralized model training without centralizing raw data. However, practical FL deployments often face a key realistic challenge: Clients participate intermittently in server aggregation and with unknown, possibly biased participation probabilities. Most existing convergence results either assume full-device participation, or rely on knowledge of (in fact uniform) client availability distributions -- assumptions that rarely hold in practice. In this work, we characterize the optimization problem that consistently adheres to the stochastic dynamics of the well-known \emph{agnostic Federated Averaging (FedAvg)} algorithm under random (and variably-sized) client availability, and rigorously establish its convergence for convex, possibly nonsmooth losses, achieving a standard rate of order $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{T})$, where $T$ denotes the aggregation horizon. Our analysis provides the first convergence guarantees for agnostic FedAvg under general, non-uniform, stochastic client participation, without knowledge of the participation distribution. We also empirically demonstrate that agnostic FedAvg in fact outperforms common (and suboptimal) weighted aggregation FedAvg variants, even with server-side knowledge of participation weights.


On the asymptotic behaviour of stochastic processes, with applications to supermartingale convergence, Dvoretzky's approximation theorem, and stochastic quasi-Fejér monotonicity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We prove a novel and general result on the asymptotic behavior of stochastic processes which conform to a certain relaxed supermartingale condition. Our result provides quantitative information in the form of an explicit and effective construction of a rate of convergence for this process, both in mean and almost surely, that is moreover highly uniform in that it only depends on very few data of the surrounding objects involved in the iteration. We then apply this result to derive new quantitative versions of well-known concepts and theorems from stochastic approximation, in particular providing effective rates for a variant of the Robbins-Siegmund theorem, Dvoretzky's convergence theorem, as well as the convergence of stochastic quasi-Fejér monotone sequences, the latter of which formulated in a novel and highly general metric context. We utilize the classic and widely studied Robbins-Monro procedure as a template to evaluate our quantitative results and their applicability in greater detail. We conclude by illustrating the breadth of potential further applications with a brief discussion on a variety of other well-known iterative procedures from stochastic approximation. Throughout, we isolate and discuss special cases of our results which allow for the construction of fast, and in particular linear, rates.


A Variance-Reduced Cubic-Regularized Newton for Policy Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we study a second-order approach to policy optimization in reinforcement learning. Existing second-order methods often suffer from suboptimal sample complexity or rely on unrealistic assumptions about importance sampling. To overcome these limitations, we propose VR-CR-PN, a variance-reduced cubic-regularized policy Newton algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first algorithm that integrates Hessian-aided variance reduction with second-order policy optimization, effectively addressing the distribution shift problem and achieving best-known sample complexity under general nonconvex conditions but without the need for importance sampling. We theoretically establish that VR-CR-PN achieves a sample complexity of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(ε^{-3})$ to reach an $ε$-second-order stationary point, significantly improving upon the previous best result of $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(ε^{-3.5})$ under comparable assumptions. As an additional contribution, we introduce a novel Hessian estimator for the expected return function, which admits a uniform upper bound independent of the horizon length $H$, allowing the algorithm to achieve horizon-independent sample complexity.


Customize Harmonic Potential Fields via Hybrid Optimization over Homotopic Paths

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Safe navigation within a workspace is a fundamental skill for autonomous robots to accomplish more complex tasks. Harmonic potentials are artificial potential fields that are analytical, globally convergent and provably free of local minima. Thus, it has been widely used for generating safe and reliable robot navigation control policies. However, most existing methods do not allow customization of the harmonic potential fields nor the resulting paths, particularly regarding their topological properties. In this paper, we propose a novel method that automatically finds homotopy classes of paths that can be generated by valid harmonic potential fields. The considered complex workspaces can be as general as forest worlds consisting of numerous overlapping star-obstacles. The method is based on a hybrid optimization algorithm that searches over homotopy classes, selects the structure of each tree-of-stars within the forest, and optimizes over the continuous weight parameters for each purged tree via the projected gradient descent. The key insight is to transform the forest world to the unbounded point world via proper diffeomorphic transformations. It not only facilitates a simpler design of the multi-directional D-signature between non-homotopic paths, but also retain the safety and convergence properties. Extensive simulations and hardware experiments are conducted for non-trivial scenarios, where the navigation potentials are customized for desired homotopic properties. Project page: https://shuaikang-wang.github.io/CustFields.