We propose a robust portfolio optimization approach based on quantile statistics. The proposed method is robust to extreme events in asset returns, and accommodates large portfolios under limited historical data. Specifically, we show that the risk of the estimated portfolio converges to the oracle optimal risk with parametric rate under weakly dependent asset returns. The theory does not rely on higher order moment assumptions, thus allowing for heavy-tailed asset returns. Moreover, the rate of convergence quantifies that the size of the portfolio under management is allowed to scale exponentially with the sample size of the historical data. The empirical effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated under both synthetic and real stock data. Our work extends existing ones by achieving robustness in high dimensions, and by allowing serial dependence.

A sampling-based optimization method for quadratic functions is proposed.

Concurrent measurements of neural activity at multiple scales, sometimes performed with multimodal techniques, become increasingly important for studying brain function. However, statistical methods for their concurrent analysis are currently lacking. Here we introduce such techniques in a framework based on vine copulas with mixed margins to construct multivariate stochastic models. These models can describe detailed mixed interactions between discrete variables such as neural spike counts, and continuous variables such as local field potentials. We propose efficient methods for likelihood calculation, inference, sampling and mutual information estimation within this framework. We test our methods on simulated data and demonstrate applicability on mixed data generated by a biologically realistic neural network. Our methods hold the promise to considerably improve statistical analysis of neural data recorded simultaneously at different scales.

The reparameterization gradient has become a widely used method to obtain Monte Carlo gradients to optimize the variational objective. However, this technique does not easily apply to commonly used distributions such as beta or gamma without further approximations, and most practical applications of the reparameterization gradient fit Gaussian distributions. In this paper, we introduce the generalized reparameterization gradient, a method that extends the reparameterization gradient to a wider class of variational distributions. Generalized reparameterizations use invertible transformations of the latent variables which lead to transformed distributions that weakly depend on the variational parameters. This results in new Monte Carlo gradients that combine reparameterization gradients and score function gradients. We demonstrate our approach on variational inference for two complex probabilistic models. The generalized reparameterization is effective: even a single sample from the variational distribution is enough to obtain a low-variance gradient.

Constraint-based causal discovery from limited data is a notoriously difficult challenge due to the many borderline independence test decisions. Several approaches to improve the reliability of the predictions by exploiting redundancy in the independence information have been proposed recently. Though promising, existing approaches can still be greatly improved in terms of accuracy and scalability. We present a novel method that reduces the combinatorial explosion of the search space by using a more coarse-grained representation of causal information, drastically reducing computation time. Additionally, we propose a method to score causal predictions based on their confidence. Crucially, our implementation also allows one to easily combine observational and interventional data and to incorporate various types of available background knowledge. We prove soundness and asymptotic consistency of our method and demonstrate that it can outperform the state-ofthe-art on synthetic data, achieving a speedup of several orders of magnitude. We illustrate its practical feasibility by applying it to a challenging protein data set.

Whole-brain neural connectivity data are now available from viral tracing experiments, which reveal the connections between a source injection site and elsewhere in the brain.

Dynamic time warping (DTW) is a fundamental technique in time series analysis for comparing one curve to another using a flexible time-warping function. However, it was designed to compare a single pair of curves. In many applications, such as in metabolomics and image series analysis, alignment is simultaneously needed for multiple pairs. Because the underlying warping functions are often related, independent application of DTW to each pair is a sub-optimal solution. Yet, it is largely unknown how to efficiently conduct a joint alignment with all warping functions simultaneously considered, since any given warping function is constrained by the others and dynamic programming cannot be applied.

Complex networks play an important role in a plethora of disciplines in natural sciences. Cleaning up noisy observed networks poses an important challenge in network analysis. Existing methods utilize labeled data to alleviate the noise the noise levels. However, labeled data is usually expensive to collect while unlabeled data can be gathered cheaply. In this paper, we propose an optimization framework to mine useful structures from noisy networks in an unsupervised manner. The key feature of our optimization framework is its ability to utilize local structures as well as global patterns in the network. We extend our method to incorporate multiresolution networks in order to add further resistance in the presence of high-levels of noise. The framework is generalized to utilize partial labels in order to further enhance the performance. We empirically test the effectiveness of our method in denoising a network by demonstrating an improvement in community detection results on multi-resolution Hi-C data both with and without Capture-C-generated partial labels.

We study the problem of efficiently estimating the coefficients of generalized linear models (GLMs) in the large-scale setting where the number of observations n is much larger than the number of predictors p, i.e. n p 1. We show that in GLMs with random (not necessarily Gaussian) design, the GLM coefficients are approximately proportional to the corresponding ordinary least squares (OLS) coefficients. Using this relation, we design an algorithm that achieves the same accuracy as the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) through iterations that attain up to a cubic convergence rate, and that are cheaper than any batch optimization algorithm by at least a factor of O(p). We provide theoretical guarantees for our algorithm, and analyze the convergence behavior in terms of data dimensions. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of our algorithm through extensive numerical studies on large-scale real and synthetic datasets, and show that it achieves the highest performance compared to several other widely used optimization algorithms.

Recently, several works have shown that natural modifications of the classical conditional gradient method (aka Frank-Wolfe algorithm) for constrained convex optimization, provably converge with a linear rate when: i) the feasible set is a polytope, and ii) the objective is smooth and strongly-convex. However, all of these results suffer from two significant shortcomings: 1. large memory requirement due to the need to store an explicit convex decomposition of the current iterate, and as a consequence, large running-time overhead per iteration 2. the worst case convergence rate depends unfavorably on the dimension In this work we present a new conditional gradient variant and a corresponding analysis that improves on both of the above shortcomings. In particular: 1. both memory and computation overheads are only linear in the dimension 2. in case the optimal solution is sparse, the new convergence rate replaces a factor which is at least linear in the dimension in previous work, with a linear dependence on the number of non-zeros in the optimal solution At the heart of our method and corresponding analysis, is a novel way to compute decomposition-invariant away-steps. While our theoretical guarantees do not apply to any polytope, they apply to several important structured polytopes that capture central concepts such as paths in graphs, perfect matchings in bipartite graphs, marginal distributions that arise in structured prediction tasks, and more. Our theoretical findings are complemented by empirical evidence which shows that our method delivers state-of-the-art performance.