Model-Based Reasoning
Causal Reasoning Meets Visual Representation Learning: A Prospective Study
Liu, Yang, Wei, Yushen, Yan, Hong, Li, Guanbin, Lin, Liang
Visual representation learning is ubiquitous in various real-world applications, including visual comprehension, video understanding, multi-modal analysis, human-computer interaction, and urban computing. Due to the emergence of huge amounts of multi-modal heterogeneous spatial/temporal/spatial-temporal data in big data era, the lack of interpretability, robustness, and out-of-distribution generalization are becoming the challenges of the existing visual models. The majority of the existing methods tend to fit the original data/variable distributions and ignore the essential causal relations behind the multi-modal knowledge, which lacks unified guidance and analysis about why modern visual representation learning methods easily collapse into data bias and have limited generalization and cognitive abilities. Inspired by the strong inference ability of human-level agents, recent years have therefore witnessed great effort in developing causal reasoning paradigms to realize robust representation and model learning with good cognitive ability. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive review of existing causal reasoning methods for visual representation learning, covering fundamental theories, models, and datasets. The limitations of current methods and datasets are also discussed. Moreover, we propose some prospective challenges, opportunities, and future research directions for benchmarking causal reasoning algorithms in visual representation learning. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of this emerging field, attract attention, encourage discussions, bring to the forefront the urgency of developing novel causal reasoning methods, publicly available benchmarks, and consensus-building standards for reliable visual representation learning and related real-world applications more efficiently.
Machine learning with data assimilation and uncertainty quantification for dynamical systems: a review
Cheng, Sibo, Quilodran-Casas, Cesar, Ouala, Said, Farchi, Alban, Liu, Che, Tandeo, Pierre, Fablet, Ronan, Lucor, Didier, Iooss, Bertrand, Brajard, Julien, Xiao, Dunhui, Janjic, Tijana, Ding, Weiping, Guo, Yike, Carrassi, Alberto, Bocquet, Marc, Arcucci, Rossella
Data Assimilation (DA) and Uncertainty quantification (UQ) are extensively used in analysing and reducing error propagation in high-dimensional spatial-temporal dynamics. Typical applications span from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to geoscience and climate systems. Recently, much effort has been given in combining DA, UQ and machine learning (ML) techniques. These research efforts seek to address some critical challenges in high-dimensional dynamical systems, including but not limited to dynamical system identification, reduced order surrogate modelling, error covariance specification and model error correction. A large number of developed techniques and methodologies exhibit a broad applicability across numerous domains, resulting in the necessity for a comprehensive guide. This paper provides the first overview of the state-of-the-art researches in this interdisciplinary field, covering a wide range of applications. This review aims at ML scientists who attempt to apply DA and UQ techniques to improve the accuracy and the interpretability of their models, but also at DA and UQ experts who intend to integrate cutting-edge ML approaches to their systems. Therefore, this article has a special focus on how ML methods can overcome the existing limits of DA and UQ, and vice versa. Some exciting perspectives of this rapidly developing research field are also discussed.
DOMINO: Visual Causal Reasoning with Time-Dependent Phenomena
Current work on using visual analytics to determine causal relations among variables has mostly been based on the concept of counterfactuals. As such the derived static causal networks do not take into account the effect of time as an indicator. However, knowing the time delay of a causal relation can be crucial as it instructs how and when actions should be taken. Yet, similar to static causality, deriving causal relations from observational time-series data, as opposed to designed experiments, is not a straightforward process. It can greatly benefit from human insight to break ties and resolve errors. We hence propose a set of visual analytics methods that allow humans to participate in the discovery of causal relations associated with windows of time delay. Specifically, we leverage a well-established method, logic-based causality, to enable analysts to test the significance of potential causes and measure their influences toward a certain effect. Furthermore, since an effect can be a cause of other effects, we allow users to aggregate different temporal cause-effect relations found with our method into a visual flow diagram to enable the discovery of temporal causal networks. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods we constructed a prototype system named DOMINO and showcase it via a number of case studies using real-world datasets. Finally, we also used DOMINO to conduct several evaluations with human analysts from different science domains in order to gain feedback on the utility of our system in practical scenarios.
Learning interpretable causal networks from very large datasets, application to 400,000 medical records of breast cancer patients
Ribeiro-Dantas, Marcel da Cรขmara, Li, Honghao, Cabeli, Vincent, Dupuis, Louise, Simon, Franck, Hettal, Liza, Hamy, Anne-Sophie, Isambert, Hervรฉ
Discovering causal effects is at the core of scientific investigation but remains challenging when only observational data is available. In practice, causal networks are difficult to learn and interpret, and limited to relatively small datasets. We report a more reliable and scalable causal discovery method (iMIIC), based on a general mutual information supremum principle, which greatly improves the precision of inferred causal relations while distinguishing genuine causes from putative and latent causal effects. We showcase iMIIC on synthetic and real-life healthcare data from 396,179 breast cancer patients from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. More than 90\% of predicted causal effects appear correct, while the remaining unexpected direct and indirect causal effects can be interpreted in terms of diagnostic procedures, therapeutic timing, patient preference or socio-economic disparity. iMIIC's unique capabilities open up new avenues to discover reliable and interpretable causal networks across a range of research fields.
Physics-Informed Machine Learning: A Survey on Problems, Methods and Applications
Hao, Zhongkai, Liu, Songming, Zhang, Yichi, Ying, Chengyang, Feng, Yao, Su, Hang, Zhu, Jun
Recent advances of data-driven machine learning have revolutionized fields like computer vision, reinforcement learning, and many scientific and engineering domains. In many real-world and scientific problems, systems that generate data are governed by physical laws. Recent work shows that it provides potential benefits for machine learning models by incorporating the physical prior and collected data, which makes the intersection of machine learning and physics become a prevailing paradigm. By integrating the data and mathematical physics models seamlessly, it can guide the machine learning model towards solutions that are physically plausible, improving accuracy and efficiency even in uncertain and high-dimensional contexts. In this survey, we present this learning paradigm called Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML) which is to build a model that leverages empirical data and available physical prior knowledge to improve performance on a set of tasks that involve a physical mechanism. We systematically review the recent development of physics-informed machine learning from three perspectives of machine learning tasks, representation of physical prior, and methods for incorporating physical prior. We also propose several important open research problems based on the current trends in the field. We argue that encoding different forms of physical prior into model architectures, optimizers, inference algorithms, and significant domain-specific applications like inverse engineering design and robotic control is far from being fully explored in the field of physics-informed machine learning. We believe that the interdisciplinary research of physics-informed machine learning will significantly propel research progress, foster the creation of more effective machine learning models, and also offer invaluable assistance in addressing long-standing problems in related disciplines.
Guiding continuous operator learning through Physics-based boundary constraints
Saad, Nadim, Gupta, Gaurav, Alizadeh, Shima, Maddix, Danielle C.
Boundary conditions (BCs) are important groups of physics-enforced constraints that are necessary for solutions of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) to satisfy at specific spatial locations. These constraints carry important physical meaning, and guarantee the existence and the uniqueness of the PDE solution. Current neural-network based approaches that aim to solve PDEs rely only on training data to help the model learn BCs implicitly. There is no guarantee of BC satisfaction by these models during evaluation. In this work, we propose Boundary enforcing Operator Network (BOON) that enables the BC satisfaction of neural operators by making structural changes to the operator kernel. We provide our refinement procedure, and demonstrate the satisfaction of physics-based BCs, e.g. Dirichlet, Neumann, and periodic by the solutions obtained by BOON. Numerical experiments based on multiple PDEs with a wide variety of applications indicate that the proposed approach ensures satisfaction of BCs, and leads to more accurate solutions over the entire domain. The proposed correction method exhibits a (2X-20X) improvement over a given operator model in relative $L^2$ error (0.000084 relative $L^2$ error for Burgers' equation).
Reasoning-Based Software Testing
Giamattei, Luca, Pietrantuono, Roberto, Russo, Stefano
With software systems becoming increasingly pervasive and autonomous, our ability to test for their quality is severely challenged. Many systems are called to operate in uncertain and highly-changing environment, not rarely required to make intelligent decisions by themselves. This easily results in an intractable state space to explore at testing time. The state-of-the-art techniques try to keep the pace, e.g., by augmenting the tester's intuition with some form of (explicit or implicit) learning from observations to search this space efficiently. For instance, they exploit historical data to drive the search (e.g., ML-driven testing) or the tests execution data itself (e.g., adaptive or search-based testing). Despite the indubitable advances, the need for smartening the search in such a huge space keeps to be pressing. We introduce Reasoning-Based Software Testing (RBST), a new way of thinking at the testing problem as a causal reasoning task. Compared to mere intuition-based or state-of-the-art learning-based strategies, we claim that causal reasoning more naturally emulates the process that a human would do to ''smartly" search the space. RBST aims to mimic and amplify, with the power of computation, this ability. The conceptual leap can pave the ground to a new trend of techniques, which can be variously instantiated from the proposed framework, by exploiting the numerous tools for causal discovery and inference. Preliminary results reported in this paper are promising.
Physics-Guided Deep Learning for Dynamical Systems: A Survey
Modeling complex physical dynamics is a fundamental task in science and engineering. Traditional physics-based models are sample efficient, and interpretable but often rely on rigid assumptions. Furthermore, direct numerical approximation is usually computationally intensive, requiring significant computational resources and expertise, and many real-world systems do not have fully-known governing laws. While deep learning (DL) provides novel alternatives for efficiently recognizing complex patterns and emulating nonlinear dynamics, its predictions do not necessarily obey the governing laws of physical systems, nor do they generalize well across different systems. Thus, the study of physics-guided DL emerged and has gained great progress. Physics-guided DL aims to take the best from both physics-based modeling and state-of-the-art DL models to better solve scientific problems. In this paper, we provide a structured overview of existing methodologies of integrating prior physical knowledge or physics-based modeling into DL, with a special emphasis on learning dynamical systems. We also discuss the fundamental challenges and emerging opportunities in the area.
On the Integration of Physics-Based Machine Learning with Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Techniques
Sedehi, Omid, Kosikova, Antonina M., Papadimitriou, Costas, Katafygiotis, Lambros S.
Machine Learning (ML) has widely been used for modeling and predicting physical systems. These techniques offer high expressive power and good generalizability for interpolation within observed data sets. However, the disadvantage of black - box m odels is that they underperform under blind conditions since no physical knowledge is incorporated. Physics - based ML aims to address this problem by retaining the mathematical flexibility of ML techniques while incorporating physics. In accord, this paper proposes to embed mechanics - based models into the mean function of a Gaussian Process (GP) model and characterize potential discrepancies through kernel machines. A specific class of kernel function is promoted, which has a connection with the gradient of the physics - based model with respect to the input and parameters and shares similarity with the exact Auto - covariance function of linear dynamical systems. The spectral properties of the kernel function enable considering dominant periodic processes origin ating from physics misspecification. Nevertheless, the stationarity of the kernel function is a difficult hurdle in the sequential processing of long data sets, resolved through hierarchical Bayesian techniques. This implementation is also advantageous to mitigate computational costs, alleviating the scalability of GPs when dealing with sequential data. Using numerical and experimental examples, potential applications of the proposed method to structural dynamics inverse problems are demonstrated. Postdoctoral Fellow, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Email: osedehi@connect.ust.hk Ph.D. Student, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Universi ty of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, Email: akosikova@connect.ust.hk
On Parameter Estimation in Unobserved Components Models subject to Linear Inequality Constraints
Umrawal, Abhishek K., Chan, Joshua C. C.
We propose a new \textit{quadratic programming-based} method of approximating a nonstandard density using a multivariate Gaussian density. Such nonstandard densities usually arise while developing posterior samplers for unobserved components models involving inequality constraints on the parameters. For instance, Chan et al. (2016) provided a new model of trend inflation with linear inequality constraints on the stochastic trend. We implemented the proposed quadratic programming-based method for this model and compared it to the existing approximation. We observed that the proposed method works as well as the existing approximation in terms of the final trend estimates while achieving gains in terms of sample efficiency.