Accurate remote state estimation is a fundamental component of many autonomous and networked dynamical systems, where multiple decision-making agents interact and communicate over shared, bandwidth-constrained channels. These communication constraints introduce an additional layer of complexity, namely, the decision of when to communicate. This results in a fundamental trade-off between estimation accuracy and communication resource usage. Traditional extensions of classical estimation algorithms (e.g., the Kalman filter) treat the absence of communication as 'missing' information. However, silence itself can carry implicit information about the system's state, which, if properly interpreted, can enhance the estimation quality even in the absence of explicit communication. Leveraging this implicit structure, however, poses significant analytical challenges, even in relatively simple systems. In this paper, we propose CALM (Communication-Aware Learning and Monitoring), a novel learning-based framework that jointly addresses the dual challenges of communication scheduling and estimator design. Our approach entails learning not only when to communicate but also how to infer useful information from periods of communication silence. We perform comparative case studies on multiple benchmarks to demonstrate that CALM is able to decode the implicit coordination between the estimator and the scheduler to extract information from the instances of 'silence' and enhance the estimation accuracy.

Department of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Physical Sciences and Earth Sciences, University of Messina, 8166 Messina, Italy Complex and even chaotic dynamics, though prevalent in many natural and engineered systems, has been largely avoided in the design of electromechanical systems due to concerns about wear and controlability. Here, we demonstrate that complex dynamics might be particularly advantageous in soft robotics, offering new functionalities beyond motion not easily achievable with traditional actuation methods. We designed and realized resilient magnetic soft actuators capable of operating in a tunable dynamic regime for tens of thousands cycles without fatigue. We experimentally demonstrated the application of these actuators for true random number generation and stochastic computing. These findings show that exploring the complex dynamics in soft robotics would extend the application scenarios in soft computing, human-robot interaction and collaborative robots as we demonstrate with biomimetic blinking and randomized voice modulation. A large number of mechanical systems, including simple ones such as the double pendulum, exhibit dynamics characterized by deterministic periodic and chaotic responses depending on the excitation frequency f and amplitude A of the applied force [1]. Mechanical systems with a tendency to chaotisation demonstrate multiple resonances and various transitions to chaos [2]. Today, the concept of complexity and, especially, deterministic chaos that refers to systems without stochastic fluctuations jet losing stability of phase space trajectories is explored for a variety of directions [3] even including biological systems [4] or optics [5]. In particular, chaos is a fundamental aspect of electromechanical systems and is broadly explored in motion planning for mobile rigid robots, fluid mixing, and improving energy harvesting, as well as in mechanisms used in washing machines, dishwashers, and air conditioners [6]. Although the analysis of traditional robotics and mechanisms has revealed inherent chaotic dynamics [7], chaos can also be intentionally generated through nonlinear feedback [6] to achieve specific functionalities. In contrast to rigid mechanisms, soft actuators can facilitate transition into complex dynamics without the need for dedicated feedback algorithms. Mechanically soft actuators do not possess any rigid components in their embodiment rendering them ideally suited to explore complex and even chaotic dynamics which is typically observed at higher frequencies (Supplementary Tables 1 and 2). The inherent nonlinear oscillations emerging in soft actuators for specific parameter values [8, 9] can be applied for secure, biomimetic, and soft computing applications.

Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) is a fundamental class of NP-hard problems that has garnered significant attention from both academia and industry. The Branch-and-Bound (B\&B) method is the dominant approach for solving MILPs and the branching plays an important role in B\&B methods. Neural-based learning frameworks have recently been developed to enhance branching policies and the efficiency of solving MILPs. However, these methods still struggle with semantic variation across depths, the scarcity of upstream nodes, and the costly collection of strong branching samples. To address these issues, we propose \ours, a Dynamic \underline{\textbf{S}}tratified \underline{\textbf{C}}ontrastive Training Framework for \underline{\textbf{MILP}} Branching. It groups branch-and-bound nodes based on their feature distributions and trains a GCNN-based discriminative model to progressively separate nodes across groups, learning finer-grained node representations throughout the tree. To address data scarcity and imbalance at upstream nodes, we introduce an upstream-augmented MILP derivation procedure that generates both theoretically equivalent and perturbed instances. \ours~effectively models subtle semantic differences between nodes, significantly enhancing branching accuracy and solving efficiency, particularly for upstream nodes. Extensive experiments on standard MILP benchmarks demonstrate that our method enhances branching accuracy, reduces solving time, and generalizes effectively to unseen instances.

Vector autoregressive (VAR) processes are ubiquitously used in economics, finance, and biology. Order selection is an essential step in fitting VAR models. While many order selection methods exist, all come with weaknesses. Order selection by minimizing AIC is a popular approach but is known to consistently overestimate the true order for processes of small dimension. On the other hand, methods based on BIC or the Hannan-Quinn (HQ) criteria are shown to require large sample sizes in order to accurately estimate the order for larger-dimensional processes. We propose the mean square information criterion (MIC) based on the observation that the expected squared error loss is flat once the fitted order reaches or exceeds the true order. MIC is shown to consistently estimate the order of the process under relatively mild conditions. Our simulation results show that MIC offers better performance relative to AIC, BIC, and HQ under misspecification. This advantage is corroborated when forecasting COVID-19 outcomes in New York City. Order selection by MIC is implemented in the micvar R package available on CRAN.

Decentralized learning often involves a weighted global loss with heterogeneous node weights $λ$. We revisit two natural strategies for incorporating these weights: (i) embedding them into the local losses to retain a uniform weight (and thus a doubly stochastic matrix), and (ii) keeping the original losses while employing a $λ$-induced row-stochastic matrix. Although prior work shows that both strategies yield the same expected descent direction for the global loss, it remains unclear whether the Euclidean-space guarantees are tight and what fundamentally differentiates their behaviors. To clarify this, we develop a weighted Hilbert-space framework $L^2(λ;\mathbb{R}^d)$ and obtain convergence rates that are strictly tighter than those from Euclidean analysis. In this geometry, the row-stochastic matrix becomes self-adjoint whereas the doubly stochastic one does not, creating additional penalty terms that amplify consensus error, thereby slowing convergence. Consequently, the difference in convergence arises not only from spectral gaps but also from these penalty terms. We then derive sufficient conditions under which the row-stochastic design converges faster even with a smaller spectral gap. Finally, by using a Rayleigh-quotient and Loewner-order eigenvalue comparison, we further obtain topology conditions that guarantee this advantage and yield practical topology-design guidelines.

We study the problem of matching correlated VAR time series databases, where a multivariate time series is observed along with a perturbed and permuted version, and the goal is to recover the unknown matching between them. To model this, we introduce a probabilistic framework in which two time series $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(x^\#_t)_{t\in[T]}$ are jointly generated, such that $x^\#_t=x_{π^*(t)}+σ\tilde{x}_{π^*(t)}$, where $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(\tilde{x}_t)_{t\in[T]}$ are independent and identically distributed vector autoregressive (VAR) time series of order $1$ with Gaussian increments, for a hidden $π^*$. The objective is to recover $π^*$, from the observation of $(x_t)_{t\in[T]},(x^\#_t)_{t\in[T]}$. This generalizes the classical problem of matching independent point clouds to the time series setting. We derive the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), leading to a quadratic optimization over permutations, and theoretically analyze an estimator based on linear assignment. For the latter approach, we establish recovery guarantees, identifying thresholds for $σ$ that allow for perfect or partial recovery. Additionally, we propose solving the MLE by considering convex relaxations of the set of permutation matrices (e.g., over the Birkhoff polytope). This allows for efficient estimation of $π^*$ and the VAR parameters via alternating minimization. Empirically, we find that linear assignment often matches or outperforms MLE relaxation based approaches.

Many data-driven algorithms in dynamical systems rely on ergodic averages that converge painfully slowly. One simple idea changes this: taper the ends. Weighted Birkhoff averages can converge much faster (sometimes superpolynomially, even exponentially) and can be incorporated seamlessly into existing methods. We demonstrate this with five weighted algorithms: weighted Dynamic Mode Decomposition (wtDMD), weighted Extended DMD (wtEDMD), weighted Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (wtSINDy), weighted spectral measure estimation, and weighted diffusion forecasting. Across examples ranging from fluid flows to El Niño data, the message is clear: weighting costs nothing, is easy to implement, and often delivers markedly better results from the same data.

Premium automotive manufacturers face increasingly complex forecasting challenges due to high product variety, sparse variant-level data, and volatile market dynamics. This study addresses monthly automobile demand forecasting across a multi-product, multi-market, and multi-level hierarchy using data from a German premium manufacturer. The methodology combines point and probabilistic forecasts across strategic and operational planning levels, leveraging ensembles of LightGBM models with pooled training sets, quantile regression, and a mixed-integer linear programming reconciliation approach. Results highlight that spatiotemporal dependencies, as well as rounding bias, significantly affect forecast accuracy, underscoring the importance of integer forecasts for operational feasibility. Shapley analysis shows that short-term demand is reactive, shaped by life cycle maturity, autoregressive momentum, and operational signals, whereas medium-term demand reflects anticipatory drivers such as online engagement, planning targets, and competitive indicators, with online behavioral data considerably improving accuracy at disaggregated levels.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in statistical applications in the natural sciences, and more recently in machine learning. Inference for these models typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, and can suffer from various computational challenges. In this work, we propose a novel collapsed variational inference algorithm to address this issue. Our work leverages ideas from discrete-time Markov chains, and exploits a connection between these two through an idea called uniformization.

This paper takes a step towards temporal reasoning in a dynamically changing video, not in the pixel space that constitutes its frames, but in a latent space that describes the non-linear dynamics of the objects in its world. We introduce the Kalman variational auto-encoder, a framework for unsupervised learning of sequential data that disentangles two latent representations: an object's representation, coming from a recognition model, and a latent state describing its dynamics. As a result, the evolution of the world can be imagined and missing data imputed, both without the need to generate high dimensional frames at each time step. The model is trained end-to-end on videos of a variety of simulated physical systems, and outperforms competing methods in generative and missing data imputation tasks.