Cyber-Physical Production Systems (CPPSs) are in the focus of research, industry and politics: By applying new IT and new computer science solutions, production systems will become more adaptable, more resource ef- ficient and more user friendly. The analysis and diagnosis of such systems is a major part of this trend: Plants should detect automatically wear, faults and suboptimal configurations. This paper reflects the current state-of- the-art in diagnosis against the requirements of CPPSs, identifies three main gaps and gives application scenarios to outline first ideas for potential solutions to close these gaps.

A known limitation of many diagnosis algorithms is that the number of diagnoses they return can be very large. This raises the question of how to use such a large set of diagnoses. For example, presenting hundreds of diagnoses to a human operator (charged with repairing the system) is meaningless. In various settings, including decision support for a human operator and automated troubleshooting processes, it is sufficient to be able to answer a basic diagnostic question: is a given component faulty? We propose a way to aggregate an arbitrarily large set of diagnoses to return an estimate of the likelihood of a given component to be faulty. The resulting mapping of components to their likelihood of being faulty is called the system's health state. We propose two metrics for evaluating the accuracy of a health state and show that an accurate health state can be found without finding all diagnoses. An empirical study explores the question of how many diagnoses are needed to obtain an accurate enough health state, and a simple online stopping criterion is proposed.

Model-Based Diagnosis techniques have been successfully applied to support a variety of fault-localization tasks both for hardware and software artifacts. In many applications, Reiter's hitting set algorithm has been used to determine the set of all diagnoses for a given problem. In order to construct the diagnoses with increasing cardinality, Reiter proposed a breadth-first search scheme in combination with different tree-pruning rules. Since many of today's computing devices have multi-core CPU architectures, we propose techniques to parallelize the construction of the tree to better utilize the computing resources without losing any diagnoses. Experimental evaluations using different benchmark problems show that parallelization can help to significantly reduce the required running times. Additional simulation experiments were performed to understand how the characteristics of the underlying problem structure impact the achieved performance gains.

This paper addresses a new problem concerning the evolution of influence relationships between communities in dynamic social networks. A weighted temporal multigraph is employed to represent the dynamics of the social networks and analyze the influence relationships between communities over time. To ensure the interpretability of the knowledge discovered, evolution of the influence relationships is assessed by introducing the Granger causality. Through extensive experiments, we empirically demonstrate the suitability of our model for studying the evolution of influence between communities. Moreover, we empirically show how our model is able to accurately predict the influence of communities over time using random forest regression.

The timely detection of leaks in water distribution systems is critical to the sustainable provision of clean water to consumers. Increasingly, water companies are deploying remote sensors to measure water flow in real-time in order to detect such leaks. However, in practice, for typical District Metering Zones (DMZ), financial constraints limit the number of deployable real time flow sensors/meters to one or two, thus constraining leak detection to be based on the aggregated flow being monitored at these point. Such aggregated flow data typically exhibits input signal dependence whereby both noise and leaks are dependent on the flow being measured. This limited monitoring and input signal dependance make conventional approaches based on simple thresholds unreliable for real time leak detection. To address this, we propose a Gaussian process (GP) model with an additive diagonal noise covariance that is able to handle the input dependant noise observed in this setting. A parameterised mean step change function is used to detect leaks and to estimate their size. Using prior water distribution systems (WDS) knowledge we dynamically bound and discretize the detection parameters of the step change mean function, reducing and pruning the parameter search space considerably. We evaluate the proposed noise scaled GP (NSGP) against both the latest researchwork on GP based fault detection methods and the current state of the art and applied leak detection approaches in water distribution systems. We show that our proposed method outperforms other approaches, on real water network data with synthetically generatedvtime varying leaks, with a detection accuracy of 99%, almost zero false positive detections and the lowest root mean squared error in leak magnitude estimation (0.065 l/s).

In this paper we present a novel online transfer learning approach to determine the set of tests to perform, and the sequence in which they need to be performed, in order to develop an accurate diagnosis while minimizing the cost of performing the tests. Our learning approach can be incorporated as part of a clinical decision support system (CDSS) with which clinicians can interact. The approach builds on a contextual bandit framework and uses online transfer learning to overcome limitations with the availability of rich training data sets that capture different conditions, context, test results as well as outcomes. We provide confidence bounds for our recommended policies, which is essential in order to build the trust of clinicians. We evaluate the algorithm against different transfer learning approaches on real-world patient alarm datasets collected from Neurological Intensive Care Units (with reduced costs by 20%).

Identification of the influential clinical symptoms and laboratory features that help in the diagnosis of dengue fever in early phase of the illness would aid in designing effective public health management and virological surveillance strategies. Keeping this as our main objective we develop in this paper, a new computational intelligence based methodology that predicts the diagnosis in real time, minimizing the number of false positives and false negatives. Our methodology consists of three major components (i) a novel missing value imputation procedure that can be applied on any data set consisting of categorical (nominal) and/or numeric (real or integer) (ii) a wrapper based features selection method with genetic search for extracting a subset of most influential symptoms that can diagnose the illness and (iii) an alternating decision tree method that employs boosting for generating highly accurate decision rules. The predictive models developed using our methodology are found to be more accurate than the state-of-the-art methodologies used in the diagnosis of the dengue fever.

This paper aims at justifying LWF and AMP chain graphs by showing that they do not represent arbitrary independence models. Specifically, we show that every chain graph is inclusion optimal wrt the intersection of the independence models represented by a set of directed and acyclic graphs under conditioning. This implies that the independence model represented by the chain graph can be accounted for by a set of causal models that are subject to selection bias, which in turn can be accounted for by a system that switches between different regimes or configurations.

The two outstanding figures in the history of computer science are Alan Turing and John von Neumann, and they shared the view that logic was the key to understanding and automating computation. In particular, it was Turing who gave us in the mid-1930s the fundamental analysis, and the logical definition, of the concept of'computability by machine' and who discovered the surprising and beautiful basic fact that there exist universal machines which by suitable programming can be made to t This essay is an expanded and revised version of one entitled The Role of Logic in Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, which was completed in January 1992 (and was later published in the Proceedings of the Fifth Generation computer Systems 1992 Conference). Since completing that essay I have had the benefit of extremely helpful discussions on many of the details with Professor Donald Michie and Professor I. J. Good, both of whom knew Turing well during the war years at Bletchley Park. Professor J. A. N. Lee, whose knowledge of the literature and archives of the history of computing is encyclopedic, also provided additional information, some of which is still unpublished. Further light has very recently been shed on the von Neumann side of the story by Norman Macrae's excellent biography John von Neumann (Macrae 1992). Accordingly, it seemed appropriate to undertake a more complete and thorough version of the FGCS'92 essay, focussing somewhat more on the interesting historical and biographical issues. I am grateful to Donald Michie and Stephen Muggleton for inviting me to contribute such a'second edition' to the present volume, and I would also like to thank the Institute for New Computer Technology (ICOT) for kind permission to make use of the FGCS'92 essay in this way. 1 LOGIC, COMPUTERS, TURING, AND VON NEUMANN

When you lose a game of chess to a computer then don't pretend that you didn't think at the game.