Goal Recognition is the task of inferring an actor's goals given some or all of the actor's observed actions. There is considerable interest in Goal Recognition for use in intelligent personal assistants, smart environments, intelligent tutoring systems, and monitoring user's needs. In much of this work, the actor's observed actions are compared against a generated library of plans. Recent work by Ramirez and Geffner makes use of AI planning to determine how closely a sequence of observed actions matches plans for each possible goal. For each goal, this is done by comparing the cost of a plan for that goal with the cost of a plan for that goal that includes the observed actions. This approach yields useful rankings, but is impractical for real-time goal recognition in large domains because of the computational expense of constructing plans for each possible goal. In this paper, we introduce an approach that propagates cost and interaction information in a plan graph, and uses this information to estimate goal probabilities. We show that this approach is much faster, but still yields high quality results.

We propose an original particle-based implementation of the Loopy Belief Propagation (LPB) algorithm for pairwise Markov Random Fields (MRF) on a continuous state space. The algorithm constructs adaptively efficient proposal distributions approximating the local beliefs at each note of the MRF. This is achieved by considering proposal distributions in the exponential family whose parameters are updated iterately in an Expectation Propagation (EP) framework. The proposed particle scheme provides consistent estimation of the LBP marginals as the number of particles increases. We demonstrate that it provides more accurate results than the Particle Belief Propagation (PBP) algorithm of Ihler and McAllester (2009) at a fraction of the computational cost and is additionally more robust empirically. The computational complexity of our algorithm at each iteration is quadratic in the number of particles. We also propose an accelerated implementation with sub-quadratic computational complexity which still provides consistent estimates of the loopy BP marginal distributions and performs almost as well as the original procedure.

We apply belief propagation to a Bayesian bipartite graph composed of discrete independent hidden variables and discrete visible variables. The network is the Discrete counterpart of Independent Component Analysis (DICA) and it is manipulated in a factor graph form for inference and learning. A full set of simulations is reported for character images from the MNIST dataset. The results show that the factorial code implemented by the sources contributes to build a good generative model for the data that can be used in various inference modes.

Multi-context Systems (MCSs) are a formalism for systems consisting of knowledge bases (possibly heterogeneous and non-monotonic) that are interlinked via bridge rules, where the global system semantics emerges from the local semantics of the knowledge bases (also called contexts) in an equilibrium. While MCSs and related formalisms are inherently targeted for distributed set- tings, no truly distributed algorithms for their evaluation were available. We address this short- coming and present a suite of such algorithms which includes a basic algorithm DMCS, an ad- vanced version DMCSOPT that exploits topology-based optimizations, and a streaming algorithm DMCS-STREAMING that computes equilibria in packages of bounded size. The algorithms be- have quite differently in several respects, as experienced in thorough experimental evaluation of a system prototype. From the experimental results, we derive a guideline for choosing the appropriate algorithm and running mode in particular situations, determined by the parameter settings.

A formal framework is given for the postulate characterizability of a class of belief revision operators, obtained from a class of partial preorders using minimization. It is shown that for classes of posets characterizability is equivalent to a special kind of definability in monadic second-order logic, which turns out to be incomparable to first-order definability. Several examples are given of characterizable and non-characterizable classes. For example, it is shown that the class of revision operators obtained from posets which are not total is not characterizable.

Goal recognition design involves the offline analysis of goal recognition models by formulating measures that assess the ability to perform goal recognition within a model and finding efficient ways to compute and optimize them. In this work we present goal recognition design for non-optimal agents, which extends previous work by accounting for agents that behave non-optimally either intentionally or naıvely. The analysis we present includes a new generalized model for goal recognition design and the worst case distinctiveness (wcd) measure. For two special cases of sub-optimal agents we present methods for calculating the wcd, part of which are based on novel compilations to classical planning problems. Our empirical evaluation shows the proposed solutions to be effective in computing and optimizing the wcd.

Many multiagent applications require an agent to learn quickly how to interact with previously unknown other agents. To address this problem, researchers have studied learning algorithms which compute posterior beliefs over a hypothesised set of policies, based on the observed actions of the other agents. The posterior belief is complemented by the prior belief, which specifies the subjective likelihood of policies before any actions are observed. In this paper, we present the first comprehensive empirical study on the practical impact of prior beliefs over policies in repeated interactions. We show that prior beliefs can have a significant impact on the long-term performance of such methods, and that the magnitude of the impact depends on the depth of the planning horizon. Moreover, our results demonstrate that automatic methods can be used to compute prior beliefs with consistent performance effects. This indicates that prior beliefs could be eliminated as a manual parameter and instead be computed automatically.

Belief revision games (BRGs) are concerned with the dynamics of the beliefs of a group of communicating agents. BRGs are "zero-player" games where at each step every agent revises her own beliefs by taking account for the beliefs of her acquaintances. Each agent is associated with a belief state defined on some finite propositional language. We provide a general definition for such games where each agent has her own revision policy, and show that the belief sequences of agents can always be finitely characterized. We then define a set of revision policies based on belief merging operators. We point out a set of appealing properties for BRGs and investigate the extent to which these properties are satisfied by the merging-based policies under consideration.

In order to properly regulate iterated belief revision, Darwiche and Pearl (1997) model belief revision as revising epistemic states by propositions. An epistemic state in their sense consists of a belief set and a set of conditional beliefs. Although the denotation of an epistemic state can be indirectly captured by a total preorder on the set of worlds, it is unclear how to directly capture the structure in terms of the beliefs and conditional beliefs it contains. In this paper, we first provide an axiomatic characterisation for epistemic states by using nine rules about beliefs and conditional beliefs, and then argue that the last two rules are too strong and should be eliminated for characterising the belief state of an agent. We call a structure which satisfies the first seven rules a general epistemic state (GEP). To provide a semantical characterisation of GEPs, we introduce a mathematical structure called belief algebra, which is in essence a certain binary relation defined on the power set of worlds.We then establish a 1-1 correspondence between GEPs and belief algebras, and show that total preorders on worlds are special cases of belief algebras. Furthermore, using the notion of belief algebras, we extend the classical iterated belief revision rules of Darwiche and Pearl to our setting of general epistemic states.

Maintaining an accurate set of beliefs in a partially observable scenario, particularly with respect to other agents operating in the same space, is a vital aspect of multiagent planning. We analyze how the beliefs of an agent can be updated for fast adaptivity to changes in the behavior of an unknown teammate. The main contribution of this paper is the empirical evaluation of an agent cooperating with a teammate whose goals change periodically. We test our approach in a collaborative multiagent domain where identification of goals is necessary for successful completion. The belief revision technique we propose outperforms the traditional approach in a majority of test cases. Additionally, our results suggest the ability to approximate a higher level model by utilizing a belief distribution over a set of lower level behaviors, particularly when the belief update strategy identifies changes in the behavior in a responsive manner.