A big challenge in environmental monitoring is the spatiotemporal variation of the phenomena to be observed. To enable persistent sensing and estimation in such a setting, it is beneficial to have a time-varying underlying environmental model. Here we present a planning and learning method that enables an autonomous marine vehicle to perform persistent ocean monitoring tasks by learning and refining an environmental model. To alleviate the computational bottleneck caused by large-scale data accumulated, we propose a framework that iterates between a planning component aimed at collecting the most information-rich data, and a sparse Gaussian Process learning component where the environmental model and hyperparameters are learned online by taking advantage of only a subset of data that provides the greatest contribution. Our simulations with ground-truth ocean data shows that the proposed method is both accurate and efficient.

We present Probabilistic Doxastic Temporal (PDT) Logic, a formalism to represent and reason about probabilistic beliefs and their temporal evolution in multi-agent systems. This formalism enables the quantification of agents beliefs through probability intervals and incorporates an explicit notion of time. We discuss how over time agents dynamically change their beliefs in facts, temporal rules, and other agents beliefs with respect to any new information they receive. We introduce an appropriate formal semantics for PDT Logic and show that it is decidable. Alternative options of specifying problems in PDT Logic are possible. For these problem specifications, we develop different satisfiability checking algorithms and provide complexity results for the respective decision problems. The use of probability intervals enables a formal representation of probabilistic knowledge without enforcing (possibly incorrect) exact probability values. By incorporating an explicit notion of time, PDT Logic provides enriched possibilities to represent and reason about temporal relations.

Analysts say a handful of technologies are poised to change our lives by 2021. While Forrester Research sees 15 emerging technologies that are important right now (see the full list here), five of them could shake things up in a big way for businesses and the public in general, according to Brian Hopkins, an enterprise architecture analyst with Forrester. "The technologies we selected will have the biggest impact on your ability to win, serve and retain customers whose expectations of service through technology are only going up," Hopkins wrote in the report. "Our list focuses on those technologies that will have the biggest business impact in the next five years." Of Forrester's larger list, which includes the likes of edge computing, security automation and real-time interaction management, the five that Hopkins pulled out to highlight have the greatest potential for disruption.

In this paper we study a model-based approach to calculating approximately optimal policies in Markovian Decision Processes. In particular, we derive novel bounds on the loss of using a policy derived from a factored linear model, a class of models which generalize numerous previous models out of those that come with strong computational guarantees. For the first time in the literature, we derive performance bounds for model-based techniques where the model inaccuracy is measured in weighted norms. Moreover, our bounds show a decreased sensitivity to the discount factor and, unlike similar bounds derived for other approaches, they are insensitive to measure mismatch. Similarly to previous works, our proofs are also based on contraction arguments, but with the main differences that we use carefully constructed norms building on Banach lattices, and the contraction property is only assumed for operators acting on "compressed" spaces, thus weakening previous assumptions, while strengthening previous results.

A framework for consensus modelling is introduced using Kleene's three valued logic as a means to express vagueness in agents' beliefs. Explicitly borderline cases are inherent to propositions involving vague concepts where sentences of a propositional language may be absolutely true, absolutely false or borderline. By exploiting these intermediate truth values, we can allow agents to adopt a more vague interpretation of underlying concepts in order to weaken their beliefs and reduce the levels of inconsistency, so as to achieve consensus. We consider a consensus combination operation which results in agents adopting the borderline truth value as a shared viewpoint if they are in direct conflict. Simulation experiments are presented which show that applying this operator to agents chosen at random (subject to a consistency threshold) from a population, with initially diverse opinions, results in convergence to a smaller set of more precise shared beliefs. Furthermore, if the choice of agents for combination is dependent on the payoff of their beliefs, this acting as a proxy for performance or usefulness, then the system converges to beliefs which, on average, have higher payoff.

By 2021, robots will have eliminated 6% of all jobs in the US, starting with customer service representatives and eventually truck and taxi drivers. That's just one cheery takeaway from a report released by market research company Forrester this week. These robots, or intelligent agents, represent a set of AI-powered systems that can understand human behavior and make decisions on our behalf. Current technologies in this field include virtual assistants like Alexa, Cortana, Siri and Google Now as well as chatbots and automated robotic systems. For now, they are quite simple, but over the next five years they will become much better at making decisions on our behalf in more complex scenarios, which will enable mass adoption of breakthroughs like self-driving cars.

I am very interested in reinforcement-settings in a multi-agent system. I have a hard time finding papers about reinforcement learning of sophisticated multi-agent settings, such as having a small society of agents which can trade goods with each other or interact in some other way. Is there even work in that direction? The "clostest" thing which interests me are predator-prey models. When searching for them I found a few interesting ones.

A recent algorithmic family for distributed optimization, DIGing's, have been shown to have geometric convergence over time-varying undirected/directed graphs. Nevertheless, an identical step-size for all agents is needed. In this paper, we study the convergence rates of the Adapt-Then-Combine (ATC) variation of the DIGing algorithm under uncoordinated step-sizes. We show that the ATC variation of DIGing algorithm converges geometrically fast even if the step-sizes are different among the agents. In addition, our analysis implies that the ATC structure can accelerate convergence compared to the distributed gradient descent (DGD) structure which has been used in the original DIGing algorithm.

Bayes's Theorem fundamentally is based on the concept of "validity of Beliefs". Reverend Thomas Bayes was a Presbyterian minster and a Mathematician who pondered much about developing the proof of existence of God. He came up with the Theorem in 18th century (which was later refined by Pierre-Simmon Laplace) to fix or establish the validity of'existing' or'previous' Beliefs in the face of best available'new' evidence. Think of it as a equation to correct prior beliefs based on new evidence. One of the popular example used to explain Bayes's Theorem is to detect if a patient has a certain disease or not.

If a given behavior of a multi-agent system restricts the phase variable to a invariant manifold, then we define a phase transition as change of physical characteristics such as speed, coordination, and structure. We define such a phase transition as splitting an underlying manifold into two sub-manifolds with distinct dimensionalities around the singularity where the phase transition physically exists. Here, we propose a method of detecting phase transitions and splitting the manifold into phase transitions free sub-manifolds. Therein, we utilize a relationship between curvature and singular value ratio of points sampled in a curve, and then extend the assertion into higher-dimensions using the shape operator. Then we attest that the same phase transition can also be approximated by singular value ratios computed locally over the data in a neighborhood on the manifold. We validate the phase transitions detection method using one particle simulation and three real world examples.