Agents
The Iceberg Index: Measuring Skills-centered Exposure in the AI Economy
Chopra, Ayush, Bhattacharya, Santanu, Salvador, DeAndrea, Paul, Ayan, Wright, Teddy, Garg, Aditi, Ahmad, Feroz, Schwarze, Alice C., Raskar, Ramesh, Balaprakash, Prasanna
Artificial Intelligence is reshaping America's \$9.4 trillion labor market, with cascading effects that extend far beyond visible technology sectors. When AI transforms quality control tasks in automotive plants, consequences spread through logistics networks, supply chains, and local service economies. Yet traditional workforce metrics cannot capture these ripple effects: they measure employment outcomes after disruption occurs, not where AI capabilities overlap with human skills before adoption crystallizes. Project Iceberg addresses this gap using Large Population Models to simulate the human-AI labor market, representing 151 million workers as autonomous agents executing over 32,000 skills and interacting with thousands of AI tools. It introduces the Iceberg Index, a skills-centered metric that measures the wage value of skills AI systems can perform within each occupation. The Index captures technical exposure, where AI can perform occupational tasks, not displacement outcomes or adoption timelines. Analysis shows that visible AI adoption concentrated in computing and technology (2.2% of wage value, approx \$211 billion) represents only the tip of the iceberg. Technical capability extends far below the surface through cognitive automation spanning administrative, financial, and professional services (11.7%, approx \$1.2 trillion). This exposure is fivefold larger and geographically distributed across all states rather than confined to coastal hubs. Traditional indicators such as GDP, income, and unemployment explain less than 5% of this skills-based variation, underscoring why new indices are needed to capture exposure in the AI economy. By simulating how these capabilities may spread under scenarios, Iceberg enables policymakers and business leaders to identify exposure hotspots, prioritize investments, and test interventions before committing billions to implementation
Automated Composition of Agents: A Knapsack Approach for Agentic Component Selection
Yuan, Michelle, Pahwa, Khushbu, Chang, Shuaichen, Kaba, Mustafa, Jiang, Jiarong, Ma, Xiaofei, Zhang, Yi, Sunkara, Monica
Designing effective agentic systems requires the seamless composition and integration of agents, tools, and models within dynamic and uncertain environments. Most existing methods rely on static, semantic retrieval approaches for tool or agent discovery. However, effective reuse and composition of existing components remain challenging due to incomplete capability descriptions and the limitations of retrieval methods. Component selection suffers because the decisions are not based on capability, cost, and real-time utility. To address these challenges, we introduce a structured, automated framework for agentic system composition that is inspired by the knapsack problem. Our framework enables a composer agent to systematically identify, select, and assemble an optimal set of agentic components by jointly considering performance, budget constraints, and compatibility. By dynamically testing candidate components and modeling their utility in real-time, our approach streamlines the assembly of agentic systems and facilitates scalable reuse of resources. Empirical evaluation with Claude 3.5 Sonnet across five benchmarking datasets shows that our online-knapsack-based composer consistently lies on the Pareto frontier, achieving higher success rates at significantly lower component costs compared to our baselines. In the single-agent setup, the online knapsack composer shows a success rate improvement of up to 31.6% in comparison to the retrieval baselines. In multi-agent systems, the online knapsack composer increases success rate from 37% to 87% when agents are selected from an agent inventory of 100+ agents. The substantial performance gap confirms the robust adaptability of our method across diverse domains and budget constraints.
Structured Cognitive Loop for Behavioral Intelligence in Large Language Model Agents
Large language models have advanced natural language understanding and generation, but their use as autonomous agents introduces architectural challenges for multi-step tasks. Existing frameworks often mix cognition, memory, and control in a single prompt, reducing coherence and predictability. The Structured Cognitive Loop (SCL) is proposed as an alternative architecture that separates these functions. In SCL, the language model handles cognition, memory is stored externally, and execution is guided by a lightweight controller within a goal-directed loop. This design allows intermediate results to be recorded and verified before actions are taken, improving traceability and evaluation. SCL is evaluated against prompt-based baselines such as ReAct and LangChain agents across three tasks: travel planning, conditional email drafting, and constraint-guided image generation. Under matched settings, SCL achieves an average task success rate of 86.3 percent, compared with 70.5 to 76.8 percent for baselines. It also shows higher goal fidelity, fewer redundant calls, and reduced unsupported assertions. These results indicate that separating cognition, memory, and control can enhance reliability and interpretability without relying on larger models or heavier prompts. The findings should be regarded as preliminary evidence, with broader tests across model families and task domains planned for future work.
IROTE: Human-like Traits Elicitation of Large Language Model via In-Context Self-Reflective Optimization
Bai, Yuzhuo, Duan, Shitong, Huang, Muhua, Yao, Jing, Liu, Zhenghao, Zhang, Peng, Lu, Tun, Yi, Xiaoyuan, Sun, Maosong, Xie, Xing
Trained on various human-authored corpora, Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated a certain capability of reflecting specific human-like traits (e.g., personality or values) by prompting, benefiting applications like personalized LLMs and social simulations. However, existing methods suffer from the superficial elicitation problem: LLMs can only be steered to mimic shallow and unstable stylistic patterns, failing to embody the desired traits precisely and consistently across diverse tasks like humans. To address this challenge, we propose IROTE, a novel in-context method for stable and transferable trait elicitation. Drawing on psychological theories suggesting that traits are formed through identity-related reflection, our method automatically generates and optimizes a textual self-reflection within prompts, which comprises self-perceived experience, to stimulate LLMs' trait-driven behavior. The optimization is performed by iteratively maximizing an information-theoretic objective that enhances the connections between LLMs' behavior and the target trait, while reducing noisy redundancy in reflection without any fine-tuning, leading to evocative and compact trait reflection. Extensive experiments across three human trait systems manifest that one single IROTE-generated self-reflection can induce LLMs' stable impersonation of the target trait across diverse downstream tasks beyond simple questionnaire answering, consistently outperforming existing strong baselines.
One Patient, Many Contexts: Scaling Medical AI with Contextual Intelligence
Li, Michelle M., Reis, Ben Y., Rodman, Adam, Cai, Tianxi, Dagan, Noa, Balicer, Ran D., Loscalzo, Joseph, Kohane, Isaac S., Zitnik, Marinka
Medical AI, including clinical language models, vision-language models, and multimodal health record models, already summarizes notes, answers questions, and supports decisions. Their adaptation to new populations, specialties, or care settings often relies on fine-tuning, prompting, or retrieval from external knowledge bases. These strategies can scale poorly and risk contextual errors: outputs that appear plausible but miss critical patient or situational information. We envision context switching as a solution. Context switching adjusts model reasoning at inference without retraining. Generative models can tailor outputs to patient biology, care setting, or disease. Multimodal models can reason on notes, laboratory results, imaging, and genomics, even when some data are missing or delayed. Agent models can coordinate tools and roles based on tasks and users. In each case, context switching enables medical AI to adapt across specialties, populations, and geographies. It requires advances in data design, model architectures, and evaluation frameworks, and establishes a foundation for medical AI that scales to infinitely many contexts while remaining reliable and suited to real-world care.
Natural, Artificial, and Human Intelligences
Pothos, Emmanuel M., Widdows, Dominic
Human achievement, whether in culture, science, or technology, is unparalleled in the known existence. This achievement is tied to the enormous communities of knowledge, made possible by language: leaving theological content aside, it is very much true that "in the beginning was the word", and that in Western societies, this became particularly identified with the written word. There lies the challenge regarding modern age chatbots: they can 'do' language apparently as well as ourselves and there is a natural question of whether they can be considered intelligent, in the same way as we are or otherwise. Are humans uniquely intelligent? We consider this question in terms of the psychological literature on intelligence, evidence for intelligence in non-human animals, the role of written language in science and technology, progress with artificial intelligence, the history of intelligence testing (for both humans and machines), and the role of embodiment in intelligence. We think that it is increasingly difficult to consider humans uniquely intelligent. There are current limitations in chatbots, e.g., concerning perceptual and social awareness, but much attention is currently devoted to overcoming such limitations.
Smart Traffic Signals: Comparing MARL and Fixed-Time Strategies
Urban traffic congestion, particularly at intersections, significantly affects travel time, fuel consumption, and emissions. Traditional fixed-time signal control systems often lack the adaptability to effectively manage dynamic traffic patterns. This study explores the application of multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) to optimize traffic signal coordination across multiple intersections within a simulated environment. A simulation was developed to model a network of interconnected intersections with randomly generated vehicle flows to reflect realistic traffic variability. A decentralized MARL controller was implemented in which each traffic signal operates as an autonomous agent, making decisions based on local observations and information from neighboring agents. Performance was evaluated against a baseline fixed-time controller using metrics such as average vehicle wait time and overall throughput. The MARL approach demonstrated statistically significant improvements, including reduced average waiting times and improved throughput. These findings suggest that MARL-based dynamic control strategies hold substantial promise to improve urban traffic management efficiency. More research is recommended to address the challenges of scalability and real-world implementation.
SciSciGPT: Advancing Human-AI Collaboration in the Science of Science
Shao, Erzhuo, Wang, Yifang, Qian, Yifan, Pan, Zhenyu, Liu, Han, Wang, Dashun
The increasing availability of large-scale datasets has fueled rapid progress across many scientific fields, creating unprecedented opportunities for research and discovery while posing significant analytical challenges. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) and AI agents have opened new possibilities for human-AI collaboration, offering powerful tools to navigate this complex research landscape. In this paper, we introduce SciSciGPT, an open-source, prototype AI collaborator that uses the science of science as a testbed to explore the potential of LLM-powered research tools. SciSciGPT automates complex workflows, supports diverse analytical approaches, accelerates research prototyping and iteration, and facilitates reproducibility. Through case studies, we demonstrate its ability to streamline a wide range of empirical and analytical research tasks while highlighting its broader potential to advance research. We further propose an LLM Agent capability maturity model for human-AI collaboration, envisioning a roadmap to further improve and expand upon frameworks like SciSciGPT. As AI capabilities continue to evolve, frameworks like SciSciGPT may play increasingly pivotal roles in scientific research and discovery, unlocking further opportunities. At the same time, these new advances also raise critical challenges, from ensuring transparency and ethical use to balancing human and AI contributions. Addressing these issues may shape the future of scientific inquiry and inform how we train the next generation of scientists to thrive in an increasingly AI-integrated research ecosystem.
Frontier AI's Impact on the Cybersecurity Landscape
Potter, Yujin, Guo, Wenbo, Wang, Zhun, Shi, Tianneng, Li, Hongwei, Zhang, Andy, Kelley, Patrick Gage, Thomas, Kurt, Song, Dawn
The impact of frontier AI (i.e., AI agents and foundation models) in cybersecurity is rapidly increasing. In this paper, we comprehensively analyze this trend through multiple aspects: quantitative benchmarks, qualitative literature review, empirical evaluation, and expert survey. Our analyses consistently show that AI's capabilities and applications in attacks have exceeded those on the defensive side. Our empirical evaluation of widely used agent systems on cybersecurity benchmarks highlights that current AI agents struggle with flexible workflow planning and using domain-specific tools for complex security analysis -- capabilities particularly critical for defensive applications. Our expert survey of AI and security researchers and practitioners indicates a prevailing view that AI will continue to benefit attackers over defenders, though the gap is expected to narrow over time. These results show the urgent need to evaluate and mitigate frontier AI's risks, steering it towards benefiting cyber defenses. Responding to this need, we provide concrete calls to action regarding: the construction of new cybersecurity benchmarks, the development of AI agents for defense, the design of provably secure AI agents, the improvement of pre-deployment security testing and transparency, and the strengthening of user-oriented education and defenses. Our paper summary and blog are available at https://rdi.berkeley.edu/frontier-ai-impact-on-cybersecurity/.
Robot Talk Episode 135 โ Robot anatomy and design, with Chapa Sirithunge
Claire chatted to Chapa Sirithunge from University of Cambridge about what robots can teach us about human anatomy, and vice versa. Chapa Sirithunge is a Marie Sklodowska-Curie fellow in robotics at the University of Cambridge. She has an undergraduate degree and PhD in Electrical Engineering from the University of Moratuwa. Before joining the University of Cambridge in 2022, she was a lecturer at Sri Lanka Technological Campus and a visiting lecturer at the University of Moratuwa Sri Lanka. Her research interests span assistive robotics, soft robots and physical human-robot interaction.