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Calibration and Uncertainty Characterization for Ultra-Wideband Two-Way-Ranging Measurements

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ultra-Wideband (UWB) systems are becoming increasingly popular for indoor localization, where range measurements are obtained by measuring the time-of-flight of radio signals. However, the range measurements typically suffer from a systematic error or bias that must be corrected for high-accuracy localization. In this paper, a ranging protocol is proposed alongside a robust and scalable antenna-delay calibration procedure to accurately and efficiently calibrate antenna delays for many UWB tags. Additionally, the bias and uncertainty of the measurements are modelled as a function of the received-signal power. The full calibration procedure is presented using experimental training data of 3 aerial robots fitted with 2 UWB tags each, and then evaluated on 2 test experiments. A localization problem is then formulated on the experimental test data, and the calibrated measurements and their modelled uncertainty are fed into an extended Kalman filter (EKF). The proposed calibration is shown to yield an average of 46% improvement in localization accuracy. Lastly, the paper is accompanied by an open-source UWB-calibration Python library, which can be found at https://github.com/decargroup/uwb_calibration.


Learning to Forecast Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainties over Long Horizon Trajectories

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Giving autonomous agents the ability to forecast their own outcomes and uncertainty will allow them to communicate their competencies and be used more safely. We accomplish this by using a learned world model of the agent system to forecast full agent trajectories over long time horizons. Real world systems involve significant sources of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty that compound and interact over time in the trajectory forecasts. We develop a deep generative world model that quantifies aleatoric uncertainty while incorporating the effects of epistemic uncertainty during the learning process. We show on two reinforcement learning problems that our uncertainty model produces calibrated outcome uncertainty estimates over the full trajectory horizon.


On the Role of Memory in Robust Opinion Dynamics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate opinion dynamics in a fully-connected system, consisting of $n$ identical and anonymous agents, where one of the opinions (which is called correct) represents a piece of information to disseminate. In more detail, one source agent initially holds the correct opinion and remains with this opinion throughout the execution. The goal for non-source agents is to quickly agree on this correct opinion, and do that robustly, i.e., from any initial configuration. The system evolves in rounds. In each round, one agent chosen uniformly at random is activated: unless it is the source, the agent pulls the opinions of $\ell$ random agents and then updates its opinion according to some rule. We consider a restricted setting, in which agents have no memory and they only revise their opinions on the basis of those of the agents they currently sample. As restricted as it is, this setting encompasses very popular opinion dynamics, such as the voter model and best-of-$k$ majority rules. Qualitatively speaking, we show that lack of memory prevents efficient convergence. Specifically, we prove that no dynamics can achieve correct convergence in an expected number of steps that is sub-quadratic in $n$, even under a strong version of the model in which activated agents have complete access to the current configuration of the entire system, i.e., the case $\ell=n$. Conversely, we prove that the simple voter model (in which $\ell=1$) correctly solves the problem, while almost matching the aforementioned lower bound. These results suggest that, in contrast to symmetric consensus problems (that do not involve a notion of correct opinion), fast convergence on the correct opinion using stochastic opinion dynamics may indeed require the use of memory. This insight may reflect on natural information dissemination processes that rely on a few knowledgeable individuals.


Model-Based Decentralized Policy Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Decentralized policy optimization has been commonly used in cooperative multi-agent tasks. However, since all agents are updating their policies simultaneously, from the perspective of individual agents, the environment is non-stationary, resulting in it being hard to guarantee monotonic policy improvement. To help the policy improvement be stable and monotonic, we propose model-based decentralized policy optimization (MDPO), which incorporates a latent variable function to help construct the transition and reward function from an individual perspective. We theoretically analyze that the policy optimization of MDPO is more stable than model-free decentralized policy optimization. Moreover, due to non-stationarity, the latent variable function is varying and hard to be modeled. We further propose a latent variable prediction method to reduce the error of the latent variable function, which theoretically contributes to the monotonic policy improvement. Empirically, MDPO can indeed obtain superior performance than model-free decentralized policy optimization in a variety of cooperative multi-agent tasks.


Assisting Human Decisions in Document Matching

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many practical applications, ranging from paper-reviewer assignment in peer review to job-applicant matching for hiring, require human decision makers to identify relevant matches by combining their expertise with predictions from machine learning models. In many such model-assisted document matching tasks, the decision makers have stressed the need for assistive information about the model outputs (or the data) to facilitate their decisions. In this paper, we devise a proxy matching task that allows us to evaluate which kinds of assistive information improve decision makers' performance (in terms of accuracy and time). Through a crowdsourced (N=271 participants) study, we find that providing black-box model explanations reduces users' accuracy on the matching task, contrary to the commonly-held belief that they can be helpful by allowing better understanding of the model. On the other hand, custom methods that are designed to closely attend to some task-specific desiderata are found to be effective in improving user performance. Surprisingly, we also find that the users' perceived utility of assistive information is misaligned with their objective utility (measured through their task performance).


ForceFormer: Exploring Social Force and Transformer for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting trajectories of pedestrians based on goal information in highly interactive scenes is a crucial step toward Intelligent Transportation Systems and Autonomous Driving. The challenges of this task come from two key sources: (1) complex social interactions in high pedestrian density scenarios and (2) limited utilization of goal information to effectively associate with past motion information. To address these difficulties, we integrate social forces into a Transformer-based stochastic generative model backbone and propose a new goal-based trajectory predictor called ForceFormer. Differentiating from most prior works that simply use the destination position as an input feature, we leverage the driving force from the destination to efficiently simulate the guidance of a target on a pedestrian. Additionally, repulsive forces are used as another input feature to describe the avoidance action among neighboring pedestrians. Extensive experiments show that our proposed method achieves on-par performance measured by distance errors with the state-of-the-art models but evidently decreases collisions, especially in dense pedestrian scenarios on widely used pedestrian datasets.


Trust Region Bounds for Decentralized PPO Under Non-stationarity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present trust region bounds for optimizing decentralized policies in cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), which holds even when the transition dynamics are non-stationary. This new analysis provides a theoretical understanding of the strong performance of two recent actor-critic methods for MARL, which both rely on independent ratios, i.e., computing probability ratios separately for each agent's policy. We show that, despite the non-stationarity that independent ratios cause, a monotonic improvement guarantee still arises as a result of enforcing the trust region constraint over all decentralized policies. We also show this trust region constraint can be effectively enforced in a principled way by bounding independent ratios based on the number of agents in training, providing a theoretical foundation for proximal ratio clipping. Finally, our empirical results support the hypothesis that the strong performance of IPPO and MAPPO is a direct result of enforcing such a trust region constraint via clipping in centralized training, and tuning the hyperparameters with regards to the number of agents, as predicted by our theoretical analysis.


Augmented Language Models: a Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This survey reviews works in which language models (LMs) are augmented with reasoning skills and the ability to use tools. The former is defined as decomposing a potentially complex task into simpler subtasks while the latter consists in calling external modules such as a code interpreter. LMs can leverage these augmentations separately or in combination via heuristics, or learn to do so from demonstrations. While adhering to a standard missing tokens prediction objective, such augmented LMs can use various, possibly non-parametric external modules to expand their context processing ability, thus departing from the pure language modeling paradigm. We therefore refer to them as Augmented Language Models (ALMs). The missing token objective allows ALMs to learn to reason, use tools, and even act, while still performing standard natural language tasks and even outperforming most regular LMs on several benchmarks. In this work, after reviewing current advance in ALMs, we conclude that this new research direction has the potential to address common limitations of traditional LMs such as interpretability, consistency, and scalability issues.


Learning Hierarchical Resource Allocation and Multi-agent Coordination of 5G mobile IAB Nodes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider a dynamic millimeter-wave network with integrated access and backhaul, where mobile relay nodes move to auto-reconfigure the wireless backhaul. Specifically, we focus on in-band relaying networks, which conduct access and backhaul links on the same frequency band with severe constraints on co-channel interference. In this context, we jointly study the complex problem of dynamic relay node positioning, user association, and backhaul capacity allocation. To address this problem, with limited complexity, we adopt a hierarchical multi-agent reinforcement with a two-level structure. A high-level policy dynamically coordinates mobile relay nodes, defining the backhaul configuration for a low-level policy, which jointly assigns user equipment to each relay and allocates the backhaul capacity accordingly. The resulting solution automatically adapts the access and backhaul network to changes in the number of users, the traffic distribution, and the variations of the channels. Numerical results show the effectiveness of our proposed solution in terms of convergence of the hierarchical learning procedure. It also provides a significant backhaul capacity and network sum-rate increase (up to 3.5x) compared to baseline approaches.


Adapting to game trees in zero-sum imperfect information games

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Imperfect information games (IIG) are games in which each player only partially observes the current game state. We study how to learn $\epsilon$-optimal strategies in a zero-sum IIG through self-play with trajectory feedback. We give a problem-independent lower bound $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(H(A_{\mathcal{X}}+B_{\mathcal{Y}})/\epsilon^2)$ on the required number of realizations to learn these strategies with high probability, where $H$ is the length of the game, $A_{\mathcal{X}}$ and $B_{\mathcal{Y}}$ are the total number of actions for the two players. We also propose two Follow the Regularized leader (FTRL) algorithms for this setting: Balanced FTRL which matches this lower bound, but requires the knowledge of the information set structure beforehand to define the regularization; and Adaptive FTRL which needs $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(H^2(A_{\mathcal{X}}+B_{\mathcal{Y}})/\epsilon^2)$ realizations without this requirement by progressively adapting the regularization to the observations.