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Scaling Artificial Intelligence for Digital Wargaming in Support of Decision-Making

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this unprecedented era of technology-driven transformation, it becomes more critical than ever that we aggressively invest in developing robust artificial intelligence (AI) for wargaming in support of decision-making. By advancing AI-enabled systems and pairing these with human judgment, we will be able to enhance all-domain awareness, improve the speed and quality of our decision cycles, offer recommendations for novel courses of action, and more rapidly counter our adversary's actions. It therefore becomes imperative that we accelerate the development of AI to help us better address the complexity of modern challenges and dilemmas that currently requires human intelligence and, if possible, attempt to surpass human intelligence--not to replace humans, but to augment and better inform human decision-making at machine speed. Although deep reinforcement learning continues to show promising results in intelligent agent behavior development for the long-horizon, complex tasks typically found in combat modeling and simulation, further research is needed to enable the scaling of AI to deal with these intricate and expansive state-spaces characteristic of wargaming for either concept development, education, or analysis. To help address this challenge, in our research, we are developing and implementing a hierarchical reinforcement learning framework that includes a multi-model approach and dimension-invariant observation abstractions.


Scaling Intelligent Agents in Combat Simulations for Wargaming

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Remaining competitive in future conflicts with technologically-advanced competitors requires us to accelerate our research and development in artificial intelligence (AI) for wargaming. More importantly, leveraging machine learning for intelligent combat behavior development will be key to one day achieving superhuman performance in this domain--elevating the quality and accelerating the speed of our decisions in future wars. Although deep reinforcement learning (RL) continues to show promising results in intelligent agent behavior development in games, it has yet to perform at or above the human level in the long-horizon, complex tasks typically found in combat modeling and simulation. Capitalizing on the proven potential of RL and recent successes of hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL), our research is investigating and extending the use of HRL to create intelligent agents capable of performing effectively in these large and complex simulation environments. Our ultimate goal is to develop an agent capable of superhuman performance that could then serve as an AI advisor to military planners and decision-makers. This papers covers our ongoing approach and the first three of our five research areas aimed at managing the exponential growth of computations that have thus far limited the use of AI in combat simulations: (1) developing an HRL training framework and agent architecture for combat units; (2) developing a multi-model framework for agent decision-making; (3) developing dimension-invariant observation abstractions of the state space to manage the exponential growth of computations; (4) developing an intrinsic rewards engine to enable long-term planning; and (5) implementing this framework into a higher-fidelity combat simulation.


Private Knowledge Sharing in Distributed Learning: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has revolutionized numerous industries and transformed the way society operates. Its widespread use has led to the distribution of AI and its underlying data across many intelligent systems. In this light, it is crucial to utilize information in learning processes that are either distributed or owned by different entities. As a result, modern data-driven services have been developed to integrate distributed knowledge entities into their outcomes. In line with this goal, the latest AI models are frequently trained in a decentralized manner. Distributed learning involves multiple entities working together to make collective predictions and decisions. However, this collaboration can also bring about security vulnerabilities and challenges. This paper provides an in-depth survey on private knowledge sharing in distributed learning, examining various knowledge components utilized in leading distributed learning architectures. Our analysis sheds light on the most critical vulnerabilities that may arise when using these components in a distributed setting. We further identify and examine defensive strategies for preserving the privacy of these knowledge components and preventing malicious parties from manipulating or accessing the knowledge information. Finally, we highlight several key limitations of knowledge sharing in distributed learning and explore potential avenues for future research.


Cooperative Nonlinear Guidance Strategies for Guaranteed Pursuit-Evasion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper addresses the pursuit-evasion problem involving three agents -- a purser, an evader, and a defender. We develop cooperative guidance laws for the evader-defender team that guarantee that the defender intercepts the pursuer before it reaches the vicinity of the evader. Unlike heuristic methods, optimal control, differential game formulation, and recently proposed time-constrained guidance techniques, we propose a geometric solution to safeguard the evader from the pursuer's incoming threat. The proposed strategy is computationally efficient and expected to be scalable as the number of agents increases. Another alluring feature of the proposed strategy is that the evader-defender team does not require the knowledge of the pursuer's strategy and that the pursuer's interception is guaranteed from arbitrary initial engagement geometries. We further show that the necessary error variables for the evader-defender team vanish within a time that can be exactly prescribed prior to the three-body engagement. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed cooperative defense strategy via simulation in diverse engagement scenarios.


Designing Trustful Cooperation Ecosystems is Key to the New Space Exploration Era

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the emerging space economy, autonomous robotic missions with specialized goals such as mapping and mining are gaining traction, with agencies and enterprises increasingly investing resources. Multirobot systems (MRS) research has provided many approaches to establish control and communication layers to facilitate collaboration from a technical perspective, such as granting more autonomy to heterogeneous robotic groups through auction-based interactions in mesh networks. However, stakeholders' competing economic interests often prevent them from cooperating within a proprietary ecosystem. Related work suggests that distributed ledger technology (DLT) might serve as a mechanism for enterprises to coordinate workflows and trade services to explore space resources through a transparent, reliable, non-proprietary digital platform. We challenge this perspective by pointing to the core technical weaknesses of blockchains, in particular, increased energy consumption, low throughput, and full transparency through redundancy. Our objective is to advance the discussion in a direction where the benefits of DLT from an economic perspective are weighted against the drawbacks from a technical perspective. We finally present a possible DLT-driven heterogeneous MRS for map exploration to study the opportunities for economic collaboration and competitiveness.


Game-theoretic Counterfactual Explanation for Graph Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been a powerful tool for node classification tasks in complex networks. However, their decision-making processes remain a black-box to users, making it challenging to understand the reasoning behind their predictions. Counterfactual explanations (CFE) have shown promise in enhancing the interpretability of machine learning models. Prior approaches to compute CFE for GNNS often are learning-based approaches that require training additional graphs. In this paper, we propose a semivalue-based, non-learning approach to generate CFE for node classification tasks, eliminating the need for any additional training. Our results reveals that computing Banzhaf values requires lower sample complexity in identifying the counterfactual explanations compared to other popular methods such as computing Shapley values. Our empirical evidence indicates computing Banzhaf values can achieve up to a fourfold speed up compared to Shapley values. We also design a thresholding method for computing Banzhaf values and show theoretical and empirical results on its robustness in noisy environments, making it superior to Shapley values. Furthermore, the thresholded Banzhaf values are shown to enhance efficiency without compromising the quality (i.e., fidelity) in the explanations in three popular graph datasets.


Trustful Coopetitive Infrastructures for the New Space Exploration Era

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the new space economy, space agencies, large enterprises, and start-ups aim to launch space multi-robot systems (MRS) for various in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) purposes, such as mapping, soil evaluation, and utility provisioning. However, these stakeholders' competing economic interests may hinder effective collaboration on a centralized digital platform. To address this issue, neutral and transparent infrastructures could facilitate coordination and value exchange among heterogeneous space MRS. While related work has expressed legitimate concerns about the technical challenges associated with blockchain use in space, we argue that weighing its potential economic benefits against its drawbacks is necessary. This paper presents a novel architectural framework and a comprehensive set of requirements for integrating blockchain technology in MRS, aiming to enhance coordination and data integrity in space exploration missions. We explored distributed ledger technology (DLT) to design a non-proprietary architecture for heterogeneous MRS and validated the prototype in a simulated lunar environment. The analyses of our implementation suggest global ISRU efficiency improvements for map exploration, compared to a corresponding group of individually acting robots, and that fostering a coopetitive environment may provide additional revenue opportunities for stakeholders.


An Interactive Agent Foundation Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The development of artificial intelligence systems is transitioning from creating static, task-specific models to dynamic, agent-based systems capable of performing well in a wide range of applications. We propose an Interactive Agent Foundation Model that uses a novel multi-task agent training paradigm for training AI agents across a wide range of domains, datasets, and tasks. Our training paradigm unifies diverse pre-training strategies, including visual masked auto-encoders, language modeling, and next-action prediction, enabling a versatile and adaptable AI framework. We demonstrate the performance of our framework across three separate domains -- Robotics, Gaming AI, and Healthcare. Our model demonstrates its ability to generate meaningful and contextually relevant outputs in each area. The strength of our approach lies in its generality, leveraging a variety of data sources such as robotics sequences, gameplay data, large-scale video datasets, and textual information for effective multimodal and multi-task learning. Our approach provides a promising avenue for developing generalist, action-taking, multimodal systems.


Consensus-driven Deviated Pursuit for Guaranteed Simultaneous Interception of Moving Targets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work proposes a cooperative strategy that employs deviated pursuit guidance to simultaneously intercept a moving (but not manoeuvring) target. As opposed to many existing cooperative guidance strategies which use estimates of time-to-go, based on proportional-navigation guidance, the proposed strategy uses an exact expression for time-to-go to ensure simultaneous interception. The guidance design considers nonlinear engagement kinematics, allowing the proposed strategy to remain effective over a large operating regime. Unlike existing strategies on simultaneous interception that achieve interception at the average value of their initial time-to-go estimates, this work provides flexibility in the choice of impact time. By judiciously choosing the edge weights of the communication network, a weighted consensus in time-to-go can be achieved. It has been shown that by allowing an edge weight to be negative, consensus in time-to-go can even be achieved for an impact time that lies outside the convex hull of the set of initial time-to-go values of the individual interceptors. The bounds on such negative weights have been analysed for some special graphs, using Nyquist criterion. Simulations are provided to vindicate the efficacy of the proposed strategy.


Risk-Sensitive Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning in Network Aggregative Markov Games

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Classical multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) assumes risk neutrality and complete objectivity for agents. However, in settings where agents need to consider or model human economic or social preferences, a notion of risk must be incorporated into the RL optimization problem. This will be of greater importance in MARL where other human or non-human agents are involved, possibly with their own risk-sensitive policies. In this work, we consider risk-sensitive and non-cooperative MARL with cumulative prospect theory (CPT), a non-convex risk measure and a generalization of coherent measures of risk. CPT is capable of explaining loss aversion in humans and their tendency to overestimate/underestimate small/large probabilities. We propose a distributed sampling-based actor-critic (AC) algorithm with CPT risk for network aggregative Markov games (NAMGs), which we call Distributed Nested CPT-AC. Under a set of assumptions, we prove the convergence of the algorithm to a subjective notion of Markov perfect Nash equilibrium in NAMGs. The experimental results show that subjective CPT policies obtained by our algorithm can be different from the risk-neutral ones, and agents with a higher loss aversion are more inclined to socially isolate themselves in an NAMG.