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 Statistical Learning


A Method for Handling Negative Similarities in Explainable Graph Spectral Clustering of Text Documents -- Extended Version

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper investigates the problem of Graph Spectral Clustering with negative similarities, resulting from document embeddings different from the traditional Term Vector Space (like doc2vec, GloVe, etc.). Solutions for combinatorial Laplacians and normalized Laplacians are discussed. An experimental investigation shows the advantages and disadvantages of 6 different solutions proposed in the literature and in this research. The research demonstrates that GloVe embeddings frequently cause failures of normalized Laplacian based GSC due to negative similarities. Furthermore, application of methods curing similarity negativity leads to accuracy improvement for both combinatorial and normalized Laplacian based GSC. It also leads to applicability for GloVe embeddings of explanation methods developed originally bythe authors for Term Vector Space embeddings.


STaRFormer: Semi-Supervised Task-Informed Representation Learning via Dynamic Attention-Based Regional Masking for Sequential Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding user intent is essential for situational and context-aware decision-making. Motivated by a real-world scenario, this work addresses intent predictions of smart device users in the vicinity of vehicles by modeling sequential spatiotemporal data. However, in real-world scenarios, environmental factors and sensor limitations can result in non-stationary and irregularly sampled data, posing significant challenges. To address these issues, we propose STaRFormer, a Transformer-based approach that can serve as a universal framework for sequential modeling. STaRFormer utilizes a new dynamic attention-based regional masking scheme combined with a novel semi-supervised contrastive learning paradigm to enhance task-specific latent representations. Comprehensive experiments on 56 datasets varying in types (including non-stationary and irregularly sampled), tasks, domains, sequence lengths, training samples, and applications demonstrate the efficacy of STaRFormer, achieving notable improvements over state-of-the-art approaches.


Resource-Efficient Beam Prediction in mmWave Communications with Multimodal Realistic Simulation Framework

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Beamforming is a key technology in millimeter-wave (mmWave) communications that improves signal transmission by optimizing directionality and intensity. However, conventional channel estimation methods, such as pilot signals or beam sweeping, often fail to adapt to rapidly changing communication environments. To address this limitation, multimodal sensing-aided beam prediction has gained significant attention, using various sensing data from devices such as LiDAR, radar, GPS, and RGB images to predict user locations or network conditions. Despite its promising potential, the adoption of multimodal sensing-aided beam prediction is hindered by high computational complexity, high costs, and limited datasets. Thus, in this paper, a novel resource-efficient learning framework is introduced for beam prediction, which leverages a custom-designed cross-modal relational knowledge distillation (CRKD) algorithm specifically tailored for beam prediction tasks, to transfer knowledge from a multimodal network to a radar-only student model, achieving high accuracy with reduced computational cost. To enable multimodal learning with realistic data, a novel multimodal simulation framework is developed while integrating sensor data generated from the autonomous driving simulator CARLA with MATLAB-based mmWave channel modeling, and reflecting real-world conditions. The proposed CRKD achieves its objective by distilling relational information across different feature spaces, which enhances beam prediction performance without relying on expensive sensor data. Simulation results demonstrate that CRKD efficiently distills multimodal knowledge, allowing a radar-only model to achieve $94.62%$ of the teacher performance. In particular, this is achieved with just $10%$ of the teacher network's parameters, thereby significantly reducing computational complexity and dependence on multimodal sensor data.


Towards Understanding Transformers in Learning Random Walks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Transformers have proven highly effective across various applications, especially in handling sequential data such as natural languages and time series. However, transformer models often lack clear interpretability, and the success of transformers has not been well understood in theory. In this paper, we study the capability and interpretability of transformers in learning a family of classic statistical models, namely random walks on circles. We theoretically demonstrate that, after training with gradient descent, a one-layer transformer model can achieve optimal accuracy in predicting random walks. Importantly, our analysis reveals that the trained model is interpretable: the trained softmax attention serves as a token selector, focusing on the direct parent state; subsequently, the value matrix executes a one-step probability transition to predict the location of the next state based on this parent state. We also show that certain edge cases not covered by our theory are indeed failure cases, demonstrating that our theoretical conditions are tight. By investigating these success and failure cases, it is revealed that gradient descent with small initialization may fail or struggle to converge to a good solution in certain simple tasks even beyond random walks. Experiments are conducted to support our theoretical findings.


Asymptotic Theory and Phase Transitions for Variable Importance in Quantile Regression Forests

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) are widely used for non-parametric conditional quantile estimation, yet statistical inference for variable importance measures remains challenging due to the non-smoothness of the loss function and the complex bias-variance trade-off. In this paper, we develop a asymptotic theory for variable importance defined as the difference in pinball loss risks. We first establish the asymptotic normality of the QRF estimator by handling the non-differentiable pinball loss via Knight's identity. Second, we uncover a "phase transition" phenomenon governed by the subsampling rate $β$ (where $s \asymp n^β$). We prove that in the bias-dominated regime ($β\ge 1/2$), which corresponds to large subsample sizes typically favored in practice to maximize predictive accuracy, standard inference breaks down as the estimator converges to a deterministic bias constant rather than a zero-mean normal distribution. Finally, we derive the explicit analytic form of this asymptotic bias and discuss the theoretical feasibility of restoring valid inference via analytic bias correction. Our results highlight a fundamental trade-off between predictive performance and inferential validity, providing a theoretical foundation for understanding the intrinsic limitations of random forest inference in high-dimensional settings.


A PLS-Integrated LASSO Method with Application in Index Tracking

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In traditional multivariate data analysis, dimension reduction and regression have been treated as distinct endeavors. Established techniques such as principal component regression (PCR) and partial least squares (PLS) regression traditionally compute latent components as intermediary steps -- although with different underlying criteria -- before proceeding with the regression analysis. In this paper, we introduce an innovative regression methodology named PLS-integrated Lasso (PLS-Lasso) that integrates the concept of dimension reduction directly into the regression process. We present two distinct formulations for PLS-Lasso, denoted as PLS-Lasso-v1 and PLS-Lasso-v2, along with clear and effective algorithms that ensure convergence to global optima. PLS-Lasso-v1 and PLS-Lasso-v2 are compared with Lasso on the task of financial index tracking and show promising results.


Strategies to Minimize Out-of-Distribution Effects in Data-Driven MRS Quantification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This study systematically compared data-driven and model-based strategies for metabolite quantification in magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS), focusing on resilience to out-of-distribution (OoD) effects and the balance between accuracy, robustness, and generalizability. A neural network designed for MRS quantification was trained using three distinct strategies: supervised regression, self-supervised learning, and test-time adaptation. These were compared against model-based fitting tools. Experiments combined large-scale simulated data, designed to probe metabolite concentration extrapolation and signal variability, with 1H single-voxel 7T in-vivo human brain spectra. In simulations, supervised learning achieved high accuracy for spectra similar to those in the training distribution, but showed marked degradation when extrapolated beyond the training distribution. Test-time adaptation proved more resilient to OoD effects, while self-supervised learning achieved intermediate performance. In-vivo experiments showed larger variance across the methods (data-driven and model-based) due to domain shift. Across all strategies, overlapping metabolites and baseline variability remained persistent challenges. While strong performance can be achieved by data-driven methods for MRS metabolite quantification, their reliability is contingent on careful consideration of the training distribution and potential OoD effects. When such conditions in the target distribution cannot be anticipated, test-time adaptation strategies ensure consistency between the quantification, the data, and the model, enabling reliable data-driven MRS pipelines.


A Trainable Centrality Framework for Modern Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Measuring how central or typical a data point is underpins robust estimation, ranking, and outlier detection, but classical depth notions become expensive and unstable in high dimensions and are hard to extend beyond Euclidean data. We introduce Fused Unified centrality Score Estimation (FUSE), a neural centrality framework that operates on top of arbitrary representations. FUSE combines a global head, trained from pairwise distance-based comparisons to learn an anchor-free centrality score, with a local head, trained by denoising score matching to approximate a smoothed log-density potential. A single parameter between 0 and 1 interpolates between these calibrated signals, yielding depth-like centrality from different views via one forward pass. Across synthetic distributions, real images, time series, and text data, and standard outlier detection benchmarks, FUSE recovers meaningful classical ordering, reveals multi-scale geometric structures, and attains competitive performance with strong classical baselines while remaining simple and efficient.


Data-driven informative priors for Bayesian inference with quasi-periodic data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian computational strategies for inference can be inefficient in approximating the posterior distribution in models that exhibit some form of periodicity. This is because the probability mass of the marginal posterior distribution of the parameter representing the period is usually highly concentrated in a very small region of the parameter space. Therefore, it is necessary to provide as much information as possible to the inference method through the parameter prior distribution. We intend to show that it is possible to construct a prior distribution from the data by fitting a Gaussian process (GP) with a periodic kernel. More specifically, we want to show that it is possible to approximate the marginal posterior distribution of the hyperparameter corresponding to the period in the kernel. Subsequently, this distribution can be used as a prior distribution for the inference method. We use an adaptive importance sampling method to approximate the posterior distribution of the hyperparameters of the GP. Then, we use the marginal posterior distribution of the hyperparameter related to the periodicity in order to construct a prior distribution for the period of the parametric model. This workflow is empirical Bayes, implemented as a modular (cut) transfer of a GP posterior for the period to the parametric model. We applied the proposed methodology to both synthetic and real data. We approximated the posterior distribution of the period of the GP kernel and then passed it forward as a posterior-as-prior with no feedback. Finally, we analyzed its impact on the marginal posterior distribution.


Towards Understanding Generalization in DP-GD: A Case Study in Training Two-Layer CNNs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modern deep learning techniques focus on extracting intricate information from data to achieve accurate predictions. However, the training datasets may be crowdsourced and include sensitive information, such as personal contact details, financial data, and medical records. As a result, there is a growing emphasis on developing privacy-preserving training algorithms for neural networks that maintain good performance while preserving privacy. In this paper, we investigate the generalization and privacy performances of the differentially private gradient descent (DP-GD) algorithm, which is a private variant of the gradient descent (GD) by incorporating additional noise into the gradients during each iteration. Moreover, we identify a concrete learning task where DP-GD can achieve superior generalization performance compared to GD in training two-layer Huberized ReLU convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Specifically, we demonstrate that, under mild conditions, a small signal-to-noise ratio can result in GD producing training models with poor test accuracy, whereas DP-GD can yield training models with good test accuracy and privacy guarantees if the signal-to-noise ratio is not too small. This indicates that DP-GD has the potential to enhance model performance while ensuring privacy protection in certain learning tasks. Numerical simulations are further conducted to support our theoretical results.